ah ah i welcome to sophie, go. visionaries may so he shevardnadze as 2021 jurors to a close fisheries. political scientists, economists, they're all competing and well guessing about what next ear has in store for us. well today at talk to steve jacobson, chief investment officer at sack, so bank steve jacobson,

chief investment officer at sack. so bank. great. have you with us? how are you doing? all right, thank you. thanks for having me on. is our pleasure. so seen every turn of the air, you come up with what you call outrageous predictions for the ear to come. first of all, tell me why make outrageous predictions? what's to it? is it purely in mind exercise or there is more to it? well, it all started 20 years ago and you have to remember 20 years ago, we didn't have a smartphone. we didn't have social media. so at the time the time around christmas was very slow from major and markets. so we had a lot of time. oh, i had a reset, hang on a minute. why don't we do an exercise? we're just, you say is a mind game or a way to look at the future. where we really try to provoke thinking with the reader. in the sense that everything we do as human being is finding patterns and

thinking in lena terms, this exercise about being not leaner, but look at the exponential risks, dance for exponential offsite. so over the last 20 years, this is become by far our most sought after publication. it's become sort of a global brand. and i know, but from, from going to russia lot is very much inside the russian nature as well too. while in russia you always look for the downside, that's just the way you are like me almost but, but it's, it's a good exercise to think about small probabilities that if they do happen has a high impact on markets. so no, no, 2021 predictions came true. but then again, that's why they're outrageous, right? these are things that are likely to happen even though they could. so you tell me, when i read about this, you know, potential black swan events and at the end of the day, there are so far out that there aren't likely to happen. why would i worry about the scenarios? and there's plenty to worry about these days. why put more strain on my nerve

assistance? because the way we operate in markets is that the market changed in a certain direct his direction until the for some are some or the reason the direction is change. so disruption happens. and historically, although of course, as you said last year, we didn't hit anything on the nail. if you allow us to extend the window by which we have to b, ride 236 months, on average, we have 2 calls, right? you know, if we wanted to be right, of course, we will just make prediction 5 to 10 percent of the market for every single product . and that would in itself make sure that by just coincidence we will get there. that is not the exercise. so this year we talk about you living 25 years longer. we talk about a space rate on hypersonic weapons. we talk about the fact that we'll be arranging on fossil energy. we talk about a democrat democracy crisis in the us. so if you don't think that's rages enough,

you know, it's only because today the everyday life seems to me as some we've been doing this for 30 years. it's very difficult actually, to make our read a prediction compete with the reality of the rages day by day life that we see. so, in 2020 predictions a possible pandemic wasn't him and mentions even though the virus was already with us. what in late 2019. so in a sea of global trends, how do you choose which ones are worth highlighting and which aren't? but again, the exercise is not to be precise. so you have to remember, this is really about provoking people into thinking about different theme. so if i am allowed to rephrase your question, so you've so to say that if you reach the 10 outrageous production this year, what can i take away from it? well, you can take away from it that we are saying that there's probably going to be a reclassification of nuclear and natural gas. the fastest moving market in terms of new investment will be next gen medicine. there will be

a military ramp up globally, not only in russia, but globally, which will benefit a lot of technology companies and companies that the space we will probably have during the year a crisis in terms of funding as her. so i figured it's super relevant for people to figure this sort of way because, you know, let's just talk about the federal reserve. what they done over the last month. they have pivoted 180 degrees from saying that inflation is transitory. to now following a script, which is that inflation is dangerous for the work of population to us. so these changes happens all the sudden out of the blue, and that's why we're trying to prepare people for say, the same of this year's predictions as revolution and disruption. what i revolution are we talking about here? is it supposed to be more of an art spring type or 6 days culture type, revolution?

delita, i mean we, i think you, you chose a great day denominator here, the 1916 to 900 service revolution. so, you know, if you look at the world from a political standpoint right now, we have the most recommended political system ever globally. we have probably the single biggest divide in the world to day is not between the rich and the poor. it's still big and it needs to be closed, but it's really between the youth and the baby boomer generation, there is a funding need. there is a practical need. there is an ambition need. there is a hope need to create more future for, for the young generation. and that is underlying this in such a smart revolution. so when we talk about revolution is in the sense that something is being regenerated, re found, of redefine, not as, as, as we are used to, the 1789 french revolution, or even the context of the russian is not a weapon. so to say, going to arms a revolution, but it's certainly

a disconnect off the way we do business today. and i think that's very much in line with what we're trying to talk about here. so rates prediction. so, a revolution is always a result of festering wound revolutions, same fast sat in, but there are, you know, and coins of grown up processes which one of the processes that you observe now can lead to a relation of some sort our days in the political space the lack of faith in constitutions, we see the tag on the constitution in the u. s. receipt in the even a my own country. denmark of the prime minister here has been, or least right now, is partly being tried on, on having violate the constitution during the coven, 1000 crisis. so there is, and to me personally, this is a massive wrist because a thing in democracies and in countries that has done exterior wells over the last 100 years, a countries that have a vague strong constitution, a very,

a law abiding way of conducting business on a daily basis, when that's under the tack, the fabric of life is under attack and the ability and the ignorance off, like the cost system. remember in sort of in philosophical terms, a cost system is entirely built on the belief that it's fair. if the core system is seen not to be fair, then the faith in the system breaks down because you cannot enforce on people something if they don't believe in a system that is sort of the psychological, philosophical way of doing. if you look at then the practical market terms, we at the end of the road in terms of the ability to ignore inflation. we at the end of the road in terms of the ability to fed that finance everything. and we are probably also at an end road in terms of continuing to do fiscal support. so what the role needs right now is another way of increasing productivity. which by the way, have a very positive derivative story because productivity, as we know it today, and the way you get productivity is to invest in people. it is to invest in basic

research. and it is in the faith that we could build something better in the future . the opposite is happening to the market. so you are extremely right. and a great question in pointing out that a revolution comes at an end point of something that doesn't work. this when system breaks down or gets disrupted by something that either is just a platform and a time span before you get to a to a new model. so i think i firmly and, and not outrageously, i think the next 5 to 10 years. we'll see the biggest macro changes that we've seen in history since the 19 sixty's spinning into the 19 seventy's. i think we are following the same script, different actor stephan sort of relative and power struggles going on. but the story is still the same. there's not enough hope for the youth, and there is too much money as cumulated in one side of the economy, which is the financial markets. and inside that people who have real estate and equity portfolios. university i think of michigan, i think is to conducting

a story where basically over the last i think, 40 years devoss people under the age of 40, relative to the people above 40. how do you feel about the future? historically, the under 40 years old have always been more positive about the future than the over 40 years. oh, yeah, of course. now as you can imagine, the stories is the opposite. the youth is actually more negative. if you look at the recent data out of the u. s. foreseen, then, despite the fact we have very low on employment, we have big and negotiable or the labor work market. the low income are getting to you as can negotiate very good terms to get a job. despite that the economic conditions they cannot make affordability off to child educate. they, they are looking at is getting smaller. and i thing, of course i'm using us because i have been a day that there, but when i try around the world, the story sale does it still the same. i just came back from paris last night. you know, you have to sure invest that. you, you, you, every time there's a little increase in price is little lil inconvenience in terms of higher your

contribution to society. society immediately rises to the occasion. and special interest group immediately come on to the full and then try to negotiate sort of as to ability. continuation of the already established maxime, those in place think there is more far more fragmentation far more on the the surface tension that, that is building. say when i take a short break right now we're back. we'll continue talking to steve jacobson, chief investment officer at sacks of mine talking about trends and predictions of next year. stay with us with

this, and i did it in as you want to talk to, we stand together. we'll continue to stand together against russia media in germany . repeat some of the areas that we doubtless made. they noticed the videos as chunky daughter about their ability to influence other nations, french, u. k. and even latin america and other countries in future than maybe know where to high from cycle pollute with members of your household. please please, please, please continue to fight. don't you just need to to do the russian must not be allowed in germany. i don't want to call and leave it to show out. so being out in office the father. yes, actually,

indian outside the in office, mrs. guns until sunday in terms of security and defense, europe stands at a crossroads. should outdated cold war era structures be maintained like nato in over reliance on the u. s. court, or should europe define and shoulder responsibilities for its own defense? and what about russia? oh and we're back with steve jacobson, chief investment officer. it's acts a bank steen. so your team predicts that the fight against fossil fuels will be put on hold. and that is happening already. i mean, just looking at the g 20 or the cop 26 summit, where our leaders agree that they initially set green energy transition goals were

far too ambitious. as it looking like we haven't really afford the bright, green future that we need to survive on this planet. all we can, we can afford it, but the way we are executing on the plan to get to that point is not done correctly . i think if, if you wanna, you know, sort of make it very simplistic, you can argue the least the rest and well thinks that if you increase the amount of electric vehicles on the roads, you have a good way of actually getting to a c o 2 emission standard, which of course is not true, but what we're doing right now with the way we are executing it, is that we are a choosing on getting more money more flow at taxonomy in terms of the you, which is entirely built and green transformation investments. but when you are d cup and icing, you are metalized in economy. and then on top of that, which is the single most i outstanding issue and the biggest restful,

any of beslee, including the russians. we are under investing into the mining and into the energy sector, the cape x to capital expense. the used into that sector is closed 0. and this is at a time where electricity consumption globally is still growing at 6 to 7 percent with the global economy only growing at $3.00 to $4.00. in other words, the electricity consumption is accelerating relatively to the old growth of society . meaning people are using more electricity, the ability to do a bass load energy generation in europe is of all time low. this week alone, we had the highest energy prices ever in france, 205 euros for kill yvette. we have a deficient cheese in terms of the energy, which means basically for the europeans, a sector right now, we have more dependent on the flow from russia than ever before. while we had the same time across still have discussion whether no stream should be implemented here . now i in the future and for god's sake stop me from,

from being involved that i have no opinion that, but that, that's definitely just the practical case. and you know, the way this, there's, when the looks, it's going to be colder. and the storage of energy is low again, also which may instead the inflationary pressure, the energy crisis, as a concept is already there. the you have to, to give us a little bit of an excuse in terms of the, the fossil energy, coal, remember we wrote this before the cop 26, but you actually derive if you look at evolution of what's going on, please be globally. japan has pivoted towards small nuclear power. felon is now trying to get you to accept nuclear paul and re classifying it. we've seen a utilities in the u. k. is coal burning. decommission atomic plants in the u. s. is being reopened. so clearly, you know, at the end of the day, the green transformation is a political agenda, getting electricity coming out of those switches that is right behind you. that is

a political need that needs to be filled on a daily basis. now that politician feels his, hence we will see this reef clarification and have read definition off the move towards a, a very good objective fall self in society. but something that needs to be done in a and a political and accountable way. so you also look at major cultural shifts, not only economic or political, and you predict the more nish internet revolution on facebook that will see a mass exodus of young people from that platform. are you saying facebook will dine? 2020. no. what will we saying is that the youth again, once, don't want to be defined by a commercial algorithm at a major platform, they are increasingly moving away. we see that some of the fastest growing apps in the world today is apps which is using the same sort of connectivity and being on that old times, the fastest rising as far as i know, social media platform,

right. i was a french app, which is using the concept of instagram. we're way i used to gram account than everybody else is. the game is always telling you, telling people how well you're doing, how the sun is shining, how good the food is, how expensive the cause is. this phone is turning things around and saying, this is cindy. you once a day, a 5 minutes span by which you have to upload a picture. so this is showing you the reality of real life, the good side, the bad side, the downside and everything else. on top of that, you can only engage in the social platform if you are a member and contributing yourself. of course, the instagram is little bit like streaming services or tv in the old days. today's it is, is it is almost a pay per view sort of the way to seeing. so what we're seeing is that the young people increasingly will claim and want to be on platforms, which is expressing their view, their way of interpreter will not a commercial chopped down version of it. i think that is the garage root. going

back to what you said earlier, if you use the analogy of to you for evolution, $960.00 s and every definition off, what is it that we want relatively to what the step events want? because however much opt out up on a beat that, that, that met. verse wants to be de, i'll run by people who are, you know, very different in age and wealth and, and political opinion that the management of these companies. and that's going to be increased the an issue not only from facebook, but also from instagram and tick tock and everything else. i think we will have smaller, more at john bowl, precise expression of people's interest going forward underneath that. also person to think that, you know, private private data, urgency is, is a major issue even for young people today. we also predict wellness crusade on gender and equality and the gender pay gap in particular. so the world economic forum says before the pandemic, it would take 9 years to close this gap. now, 136 years. since we don't know how long this to them equal rag and how many more

are too com or you know, when it will be other blacks once a man, it will be possible to fix this gap. what do you think? now we're saying that, listen, maybe the way to get you jewel, pen, e cook, penya, send a bay is not to ask for it, but to take it. and the way they can conduct that in the arrays. but if we make is that, you know, if you're ready to use something like a rated or make a women's screw that basically gather together and, and accumulate all of the wells that these women expression and going after what we called to pet yaki of companies. so basically, you know, dissing companies which is not trying to close to pay gap who is not getting the right amount of c suite, women of rabbits and satan certainly on the board as well. and on top of that, you can also find companies we're just doing the opposite and go off them. i think you underestimate disability, but most importantly, for me actually is the fact that the pers, or the size of the

a u. m. sitting where women is, even in the most patriotic societies in world like in the middle east, it is almost always the women that sits on top off the cache. and d have risk willingness. so i actually think over the next 22 years, you will see the 1st women only bang. you will see the 1st women only broker. i don't honestly understand why no one's ever done that. you know, why isn't there a women's only broker? i mean, if you look at the whole expression off commercials in financial markets is always a male person is always about cause and powerful and, and, and the signal the color. so that he said a man in about making it all women's, all female ah, segregating once again. you know, women alone, men alone or it's about equality and having as much women and men and maybe working on the same ground. but on equal conditions. i think in know a good philosophical question which has been to try to be addressed for 300 years.

is it about equal rights? it's about equality for every one, noise it about equal rights to everybody. our push is for equal rights to everybody to have their say, this concept that you can equally treat all people. same is rubbish, made the strongest constitution a world including my own constitution. and then mine is based on the principle that everyone should have. the ability to choose themselves, and i'm simply just saying, instead of asking for this stuff, the women could get together and start to put pressure on companies. doesn't mean the company's needs to change what products to sell or how to do it. it only to represent it, not only it is the representation of that, that there is nothing on earth physically practically that the taste of women should be palest. i don't even understand the argument practically, and i'm at you the wrong person. i'm a 50 year old white male, right i'm, i'm the, a typical person you're talking about there's, i'm a should even be allowed to talk about. but, but i want this to happen. i don't really care whether it's,

it's based on once you do it, but you're right to point out for this to say she has to be about equal rights to express in that view. and that's why something like read it. women's army would be a great way to do it because there's space, you just saying you and other women just go on a certain platform. you agree that this, that, and the other companies good and then you support it and you sell the companies you don't like in that way. you can show far more power than you can get by the factors . i agree in the political system. what scientific revolution, while we worry about, you know, income inequality, climate change, and all that science is making absolute, giant leaps every year. and we have a prediction of the possible massive breakthrough in medicine. we seeing how medicine is getting all the funding in this pandemic days. is quite likely how would a major breakthrough in as your prediction says, lin, give any impact everything else? well, let's take the negative and, and talk a lot about the positive after. but the negative side is that we have difficulties

dealing with the world today with 7 to 7000000000 people in it. imagine be all the 25 years longer than theoretically, there will be 10 to 11000000000 people totally in the world that will make the metropolitan issues of traffic and pollution bigger. it will make the inequality in a city speaker probably, and it will certainly make the ability to, to, to deal with the green transformation, slower and more prolonged opposite that says of course, the fact that as we live longer and the way we achieve that and you're absolutely right, the medical breakthrough in this space is absolutely incredible. so what we figured out scientifically is that there's not a single pill that's not a single way that you improve your longevity. what actually happens is that most people die from lack of what is called resilience. resiliency is the fact you get attacked by a disease. your ability to come back from that at ease they did, they find how long you live. now with this is chris bar with gene editing cell re

from again, regeneration cells, splitting organ transplants being possible both artificially and practically. you can grow it. you can, you have medical platforms. the whole virus, of course, sits on this as well. what we actually doing is that as you go to my age and older, our brazilian will be improved simply because, you know, in 510 years from now we potentially will be able to, to detect early science or cancer. and before it gets into a hospital treatment, we can do precision medicine or gene editing that make sure that this is not evolving into a real attack on your resilience. the upside of that, of course, is that what is the single biggest cost to the russian society as it's aging, is to health care costs? imagine we have a whole chemical health care system that just 1st off has 50 percent of medicine and 50 percent treatment. that will come at more than half the price of what it is

today and ultimate move to platform where 80 percent of old deceased is, is treatable or diagnose before people get into the hospital to. they'll reduce the massive burden off, you know, the, the, the cost of society and running as society with that as aging. that could be a massive offset. but most importantly, and i and i have to smile when i say that is for me as an investor. i know for a fact when you project what the flow there is into this sector, it will be growing at roughly 25 percent of year for the next 10 years. this is the single biggest ad growth that i've seen in anything in terms of markets ever in, in my life. and i'm pretty sure that the offside of the reduced cost is why society wants to and as an invest, of course, i want to hang on to this. the problem is, as you well know, you know, you can now ask me what is to free stock s you buy to represent this? i don't know because he's old very merging. it's very fragmented in terms of the market, dr. but i'm know for

a fact that is all moving along the same path to watch at grade utility for society and massive return for investors in what you know is being cornered the next gen medicine. thank you so much for this wonderful insight stain. well, i wish you all the best of luck, and i wish all your positive predictions to come true for our sake anyways. i wish all of us to be more aware of everything that is going on. and i think that is the only way to go forward. happy holidays and stay safe. and i hope we talk soon, maybe next year to re evaluate next year's predictions. when came true, it didn't absolutely. and best of holidays to all my friends in russia. i'm coming in to moscow $23.00 times a year. so i hope 22. the predicts of a trends you, i hope will happen, is that i will spend more time in russia with my friends and colleagues and clients and, and it's always a pleasure to talk to you guys, so best wishes to the whole family at any station. and then everyone who's

listening, so best of luck, everybody. thanks dan, take care. take care bye. ah ah ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, a

ah, scientific knowledge has never been so readily available to everyone across the globe, but overwhelmed by information. can we distinguish the real signs from the one being imposed upon us? we're living in a world where there are many people who have a vested interest in fighting information, fighting scientific evidence, and discredited even the notion that science could provide the truth about the natural world in the pursuit of business goals. launch corporations, a challenge strongly by scientific evidence if you're emotionally invested and free markets than climate change is a serious emotional threat. because dealing with that means we have to change our approach to business industries are on the wall above attempting to debunk legitimate science by producing new evidence and science,

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a former nato soldier.