vaccination program, internationally, and at what stage, the vidas is likely to move it from pandemic did an endemic fees. first, doc, digital cam. sexy general of the song based international vaccination institute has consistently warned on the dangers of a croner by disobedient emerging 8 of africa. that could threaten all of the progress meet. then the autopay smith of cambridge university examines the development of divided and speculates on the likelihood of human kind learning to live with this crew of ideas. but 1st you teeth emails. i messed is, are now shows over the holiday period. let's see a couple of quits. tell you what i shelly balance. i think you would be fantastic. you've got the composure. you've got the structure. you've got a top and trousers. i think you've got the dangly leg up. won't be perfect strictly . i would love you to do it. i think you would be fantastic. now. task. you've got the next. you got the shoot. you've got the body. you're just perfection. you're we

fantastic. strictly speaking lewis, you'll be rubbish as well. one of my favorite actors and a voice i use often when i get those phone calls from these call centers that want to sell you something. i don't think you are. oh, my name's john. i don't know what you want, i just need to know how long you've been registered at your current address. if you're looking for rome, so i don't have money and i do have a very particular set of skills skills i've acquired over a long period of time skills nightmare for people like you are. so co cobra, right? they're very talented kit robins and louis nicholas and further, hamid says, fantastic. so couldn't stop laughing, amber love, it says last week she was excellent. and had us instead chess kept robinson luther quite a hilarious and just what we need right now. thank you to all at the alec salmon show and a happy and see if you hear from amber and,

and you william nicholas as absolutely brilliant all the very best ideas. couple of days. now remember to night i got a breath of fresh air sanky. and finally crate, jackson said cheerfully, fanny watched it twice 32nd time. finer than the 1st nor day. we'll watch again and again. well, i'm glad we could have some late relief over the festive season, but no back to the serious business of croon of either such faces as all the even in countries heavily vaccinated on the con. hasbrook uncertain fact, millions. although the vaccines have been successful and limiting the impact of the virus, however, what will be the position and the mayor counties who have as yet hardly begun mass vaccinations. doctor john cam guest, his assessment to alex. donna can welcome back to this. i'll examine, shall. my pleasure. hello, what you happy new year? happy year 2 years. well now, if we look at lee infection that will weighed and,

and conscious highly likely to come to like the u. k. france, america, the number of people in faith is running at the 1000000 spent week from the all mcclellan variant, but edna and korea, it's just a few 1000 i to explain the differences between some countries which are, are heavily infected by the new variant and others which seemed to be as yet escaping. so i think, you know, the, if we think about lines of defense, and really if we think about it as a war and the 1st line of defense of the things that we can all do that we know prevent confection itself that would be distancing masks, avoiding crowds, good hygiene, hand washing and things. the 2nd line of defense is vaccination. and you know, korea is up into the 80 percent range now and for full vaccination as well. and, you know, many of the countries are struggling to get above 70 percent. i mean, the united states is still in the 60 percent range. imagine the united states has

350000000 people. that's 40 percent of 350000000. that's 120000000 and vaccinated. and each one of them a potential target for the virus. the 3rd line of defense of the things that we do medically, you know, we can treat people, now we have good drugs. we had better oral, we have a solution which keeps people from impacting other people. and the final thing are the things that governments can do, and they are things that we really hate, you know, things like that same passes and passports and all these things. but the governments have to do that. and when you look at asia or australia, the governance were very effective in mobilizing people to support the idea behind isolation, behind masks, behind distancing. and so that's actually still working as a 1st line of defense. adding on to that now the layer of vaccination and good treatment. you know, you really are able to impact coded 19 a lot better than places where you don't have that 1st line of defense. i think the

other thing about oma crime is, you know, and again, you know, and unfortunately omicron is not the end of the greek alphabet. it's not the omega . so we're going to have buried conditional variance develop. but oma on has the ability to expect people who've been vaccinated and to people who have been naturally impacted. now, of course vaccination does what it's supposed to do, even with, we know it reduces hot ation. we know what reduces death. so we have to vaccinate unvaccinated populations, and that means you know, special inducements. getting people and getting children vaccinated are really important. you know, we started to see here in korea, a number of outbreaks in child care settings. and then the government has really made a push to get parents to vaccinate their kids. and in countries you know, like the u. k or, or in korea, we're 95 percent of children are vaccinated against measles. it seems almost inconceivable that we couldn't get parents to be concerned enough to vaccinate

their children against coding. so i used to live there seems to show the school a key vector of the, of the infection in this latest women as it has been of america bn, vaccinated who are the and vaccinated. now, there are the people who didn't get vaccinated during the initial rounds. during the initial push and then children. so in the united states, we're seeing record numbers, numbers of children being hospitalized. we're seeing increasing numbers of children all over the world, getting sick now, you know, they don't get as sick as adults, but it doesn't take much. i mean, we don't have as many pediatric beds in hospitals so that it isn't going to take as much to fill them up. and that would be a horrible thing. and looking at the statistics, intell nationally, hopefully explain how the france and the u. k. in america, millions of cases a week for many countries, africa, relatively unvaccinated,

still recording cases in the low thousands i was shot to the spot to split. that's a great question and it actually raises the issue that there are actually 3 gaps. the 1st step is, you know, been, we've been talking about this for the past year is the supply of vaccine. so high income countries preferentially got vaccine 1st loan can countries got it and, and are still receiving it. 91 percent of those people living in low income countries have not seen the 1st dose of actually the 2nd guy. and this is becoming clear now is actually supplies becoming less of an issue. is the vaccination? yeah. so again, just because you have that doesn't mean the country is going to deployed effectively and is that that magical threshold of her protection going to be at 70 percent? probably not. 80 percent. again, we're looking like it may not be you know, 9095 percent. no. or will we ever get there?

there are some people are saying, you know, we're going to have to get through this the old fashioned way. yes. we can keep people out of the hospital with vaccination, but you know, coverage will develop and newtons will arise and eventually people become exposed and, and you know, will be relatively protected. and i guess the final gap, and this is when we haven't talked much about, it's a $2000000000.00 gap and diagnostics. so when you look at the high income countries, they're doing hundreds of coping tests per $100000.00 people in the population. when you look in africa, it's almost 0. so they're not die. you know, you only find an infection and look for the other part of it is the sequencing get, you know, where the mutants arising mutants are arising and outbreaks. there were outbreaks in africa that we weren't aware of and mutants or have arisen out of some of them, like the they did meet doors now the crime, the delta mutant then in india. so these gaps are the source of problems. they're

prolonging coded and they're generating variance and the variance have the potential to undermine the progress that we've made in the development of vaccines . and you know, assessment for adults to lead the almost want to mess from unvaccinated country. some will not go on was a close spacious interaction between humans and animals when we have it all mcclellan come from another great question. so remember our breaks generate variance variance generate outbreaks and it's a vicious cycle. and it's thought that a rose somewhere in southern africa possibly as a result of an infection of a person with an immuno compromising condition. and you can imagine several, but a common one would be, you know, h i, v infection which suppresses the body's ability to respond to infection. so unlike post not infected h, i, b, and h, i v, infected persons immune system doesn't jump on the virus and suppress it and kick

it out of body in 2 weeks. what happens is the infection is prolonged and every time the body, it's kind of like the immune system. the defensive system is moving in slow motion . so as it throws a punch, the virus started as it throws another punch, the virus started. so instead of being something where the immune system, not the virus out, the virus is able to adapt and evolve against the mean system. and so it's thought that maybe i'm a credit arose in a situation like that because it has so many mutations in it. i mean, many of them we've seen before, but never in this particular combination and never so many and number as we see with probably standpoint of the international vaccination institute. if you were to have a riling call this new year of us. 2022 to the what a little, what would that be? so 2021 was the year vaccines 2022 should be the year of vaccination.

so all those people in the world who are unvaccinated, and that would be about, well, just under 40 percent, now i've not received the single dose and 90 percent of the people and low income countries have not been vaccinated at all. we need to vaccinate everybody, and now, you know, as i'm a kind of spreading, we recognize that we may need booster doses as well. so, vaccination, complete vaccination, maybe the original series, the 2, the 2 jobs got originally plus a booster. and you know, we need to get boosters every 6 months. i hope not. that may be unrealistic. but it's going to be very important to make sure that people are fully vaccinated in order to gain the benefit of vaccination, reducing hospitalizations and dr. kim, increasingly, in policy makers we, he'll, the, the phrase will doing tough to learn to live with us. is that possible human kind going to have to adapt to the presence of this virus?

this condition is going to be over with us. yes. so in particular among the current versus co 19, you know, as it's evolved, as it's infected, more and more people. as we've rolled out back scenes, we're going to have to start thinking about this. probably the same way we think about influenza or the flu. that there may be additional or changes in the virus that require additional vaccinations. we hope that at some point the research that that many groups are doing to develop what we call a pan cobra. 1900 vaccine, a vaccine that works against potentially the current and future maintenance or a pan corona virus. the one that works against not only this current of ours, that causes coping but the corona virus that causes the middle east respiratory syndrome where the original sars of ours that up that up pan corona are sexy, may actually protect us even better against potential upgrade in the future, but that's actually work, it's years away. and so for now,

i think the idea that we're going to have to adjust to this, the countries are going to have to back, that we have to do everything possible to preserve life, to preserve human rights and ability of people to make informed choices. and then finally, to preserve livelihood. so you know, the old life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness comes back in a different way. we look at a pandemic, you know, we've been living with influenza or millennia. we're going to have to, to adjust and do what we can now tempered and given an additional weapons to protect life by medical science. but this is something that countries are going to have to deal with. a policy will go to job kim. thank you so much for joining us once again on the alex, on the show. thank you again. coming up after the break, alex turns to cambridge universities dr. chris smith for an explanation as to why

fi this is not yet under control. join thing with . well, now we have easy grids. i just heard that it was a healthy alternative to cigarettes. do we trust tobacco companies with their message that these new products are actually going to reduce? are these you shared rich are raising the tobacco up into the workforce? july, an annual festival in st. petersburg dedicated to dust i epsky. ah, the great writer thinker and psychologist people often turned to his work to understand russia and russians perhaps even themselves. he put they sing on moody. it would be asleep brought the matting vehicle of wiley vinegar, changing a rita,

transforming them as they read that to dust. i asked as unique ability to stay ascii wants to tell us you can better yourself. he makes you face your true self, sir. are you good men beyond conventions, rules of schemes, beyond the boundaries in time, dostoevsky is a global brand whose classics, as everyone knows, i'm never out of stuff with, oh, well, come back. those are cosmetic. so do i, the crisis has been one of the most effective communicators on the development of the vitus. he now speaks to alex dot chris smith. welcome back to the alex simon

show and happy new year. yes, indeed, happy new year. of course, cuz there's some new year new valiant because how much different is this strain of the virus from the other streaming light, like dell come? well, they're all part of the same family. and they all there for related because they are all corona viruses and they're corona viruses which are part of this coded 19 family. but when only chrome was 1st detected in southern africa, it was actually quite see here is the g p. and in south africa who 1st noticed a slew of patients were coming to her surgery with similar symptoms, but quite remote from the holy truancy that we've been using to diagnose cove. it prior to that time of loss of sense of smell and taste. new coff, high fever, these patients were presenting a bit differently. they had a sort of scratch, she saw throat that of a fever bit of a coughing felt very, very tired, but otherwise they were pretty trivially unwell and,

and it was thanks to her spotting that. there was some pattern and testing these people that actually i'm a chrome came to light, otherwise it probably wouldn't do. but when she tested these patients, that's when really the alarm bells began to ring because the genetic code said not only chrome, but oh my god. and what they showed is a very big group of mutations or changes 50 or so genetic spelling mistakes in this particular virus compared to the previous strains. we've seen some of those genetic changes we had seen before, some renew, but we've never seen so many of them all in one place at the same time, with a big concentration of them in the part of the virus code that it uses to make the outer co to the virus, and specifically the spike that it uses to get into our cells. and that's the thing that was in all the vaccines, which is why people were concerned. we might have a very transmissible bearing on our hands of that transponder. absolutely, the nice, but because of ours is also changed so dramatically. it's altered,

it's modus operandi. it's changed tactics. it gets into our cells in a different way. and the consequence of that is it seems to be producing less of a illness when it does, in fact people, despite being able to infect many more people than previous variance. but can we tell a for if on the, on developed some point in the late last year when dr. can't see, identify that or has it been sleeping somewhere for, for the last year or so, and only as no detective because to manifest system like self africa, health system will do test. we don't know. the likelihood is this is what we call a de novo mutation. in the sense that it hasn't circulated broadly and the profile of changes, it has strongly suggests that this has been developing or growing in the single individual actually for a long period of time. we saw a similar thing with the so called kent or alpha variance about

a year ago. and this was suggested to have arisen in the u. k. in an individual who was immunosuppressed. and if you are immunosuppressed, you don't fight the virus off quite as well as someone who's not immunosuppressed. and this gives the virus lots of time to adapt change and evolve within an individual seeing a partial immune response. and therefore, learning something about and adapting to our immune responses. it's possible that in that part of southern africa where this i'm a chrome bear and evolved and emerged from because it's very high prevalence and immune disabling diseases. chiefly h, i v. where in some parts of south africa you looking at the prevalence of 50 percent or more of the population treated thankfully most of them, but many not. this means you're, you've got virus infecting people with an impaired immune response on top of malnutrition, poor living conditions. and so, and all of which can conspire to make the situation worse. and that could have led

to the elaboration of all these changes in this virus. and the production of only chrome, this one theory we don't know for sure at the moment. if that's the right one way back in the ninety's, there was what we thought was a flu pandemic. in fact, it was called the russian flu. and this was a pandemic. it led to very wide scale mortality, and including members of queen victoria's household actually died of the so called flu pandemic. but in recent years, scientists have done some molecular forensics, and what they think actually was happening was that was a corona virus. in fact, it was a bovine or cow corona virus. that because we were keeping large numbers of cows jump, the species barrier got into humans, became a human pandemic, corona virus, which we had never seen before. so it made people very ill to start with spread very broadly because no one was immune to it. but quite quickly, effectively immunize the entire world population, and then retreated into the background accruing along the way, some genetic changes in the virus that made it

a better bedfellow with humans. and that virus persists to this day. as of ours, exciting the code o c. 43, but it's a common human corona, virus. it causes the common codes. so we speculate the corona virus causing cove. it will go the same way alternately. it's just the path we take to get there. hopefully, we don't suffer the death toll, but previous pandemic strains would have had to cause in order to get that we can short circuit the equation with drugs and vaccines. like you've been one of the 1st scientists to right, let's have to look at some point. but living along said the corona virus excitedly . do you mean by that? allison, the danger when death told me u. k. well this is a male. the strain of the illness is still $300.00 or so a day, which is like a plane crash every single day. so the idea that some mild and all this is relative to the other variance is worth highlighting that actually

a jumbo jet crash everyday is roughly the number of people who die because it's smoking cigarettes. and this is a tiny number of people who will be killed ultimately by the pandemic, which we walk into, which is overweight obesity malnutrition, which is affecting half the world population right now. but that's one side. yes, i think we are now seeing pretty much across the board. even countries that had pursued a very, very strong, very powerful 0 covey approach to start with accepting that we are seeing an endemic disease. we're seeing something which is not going to go away in the foreseeable future, and therefore, we have to make a plan for how we work alongside it. we tolerated, we control it, but we can't eradicate it. the right thing to do when you 1st see an emerging infection or in a new disease, is to respond to the very vigorously, very strongly. and you expect that you all going to be out of control it. basically, you're planning for the fact that you can stop this thing, but then you have to accept to some point,

you might not be able to know. that's what new zealand have. it's what strange did they use that geography and other tactics to control the virus and keep it to really low levels, but they have had to accept. but unless they want to keep their countries completely isolated for ever, then they're gonna have to at some point, accept the virus into their country and end up with cases which is what's now happening. australia has got very, very high levels of cases, for example. so really it's a question of migrating from a state where there's really high levels of virus activity to controlled, tolerated levels of ours activity, but ones which are with few consequences. and there's a difference between cases that cause consequences and cases the don't cause consequences. we accept at the same time, this is an infection that is not going to go away in the future. finally, nautica smith, a vaccines, came to science, came to rescue a on the con, partially evades some of the vaccines we have. but they still ameliorate the condition, it is a little hope that they'll be more traditional vaccine imagine taking longer to,

to, to produce a which will hopefully much against all barriers. so a whole virus, a vaccine is that on the horizon or in the near future. this is what scientists, the dubbing covey vaccine, 2 point note. and there's a number of avenues to consider here this week. just gone. we've seen some quite exciting data, actually from the u. k. where they've compared people who live with people who corcoran virus and got it. and people who live with people who caught cry of ours and didn't get it. and i asked the question, why does some people despite very close contact with kind of ours case is not catch the infection looks like those people who are immune to infection from their housemates actually have various immune functions given to them by prior exposure to other corona, viruses and so this leads us to, to speculate the because of this family viruses,

there are some parts of the virus that never change. it doesn't matter what they're talking about. the virus has the linchpin components which can never vary. if we make an immune response against those, it seems to protect us broadly against many members of the same family viruses. so one very tempting tantalizing and hopefully real reasonable realistic prospect is that we make vaccines that incorporate some of those crucial lynch in bits of the virus that never change from one baron to the next. if we do that, we will have koby vaccine 2 point not which will protect us, not just against the variance. we do know that those that don't even exist yet. scientists working on at the moment. and there's some evidence about it's likely to be possible in the near term though, the current focus is on updating the current vaccines. we do have to better reflect the variance of the circulating so that we get protection against those using tried and trusted and tested technology in the near term while continuing to develop. these are the more ambitious strategies, longer term, which,

which is going to take a while. and that type of thing till i think an optimistic note, dr. chris smith. thank you so much for joining inflation again on me all in silence . you'll this christmas came as an unwelcome shock to the governments of the us, france and britain. 3 of the most vaccinated countries on the planet with armor convenient searching out of control, but merged within the ford administration of the u. k. and within the governing conservative party, but how to deal with the research and vidas in america present biden placed the emphasis on the individual states for bias control, which significantly was not the she took as a candidate when president trump was facing runaway infection. meanwhile, in france, peasant macro tried to turn up the heat on and vaccinated, but also succeeded in dividing french opinion. the facts since that substantially weakened the link between the infection, hospitalization, and death,

worldwide up to 50 phase and death are still being recorded each and every week. and even highly vaccinated countries have clearly failed to crack the epidemic. meanwhile, the pace of the role of the vaccine to the developing world still looks or responsibly slew. the emergence of oma corn has been a humbling lesson for policymakers. they can't say they weren't well warned about the likelihood of a hyper infectious to be didn't. indeed, human kinds may have towards the on the con bullet, given the generally less grave nature of the disease that prevents more substantial progress has come in the range of new treatments. once people are infected. however, the sheer weight of numbers has placed health provision even in the most advanced countries under enormous pressure. now, increasingly, commentators are looking forward to a world where human kind learns to live alongside with the virus or pandemic,

smooth at some stage for an antenna phase. but given the vast numbers of people unprotected worldwide, the certainty of a yet more variance and accumulative pressure when health provision for far far too many people will not be a question of living with the virus but of dying from it. that's a nice malik myself and all that the show is. good bye, stacy. i'm hope to see you all again next week. ah ah, now we have a cigarette. i just heard that it was a healthy alternative to cigarettes and do we trust tobacco companies with their

message that these new products are actually going to reduce these issues are making the tobacco with a emotions medieval institutions. and then i go to like technology and the combination of the st. very, you could say historically distinct seeks fixes within our psycho physical makeup. i have rendered us pretty dangerous to ourselves, to the, to the planet and price fixing is the problem. if you want a free market, you've got to let the market be free. you can have half of the market free. and then half the market fixed. do you end up with the problem that we had today?

ah, the u. s. supreme called both the whole jo biden's koby box, the mandate for large businesses, but allows the monday for health care workers to go ahead. the queen of england, 2nd son, prince. andrew is stripped of his military title over high profile sexual abuse case with allied peacekeeping mission, cause i started coming to an end. the situation in the country stabilizes that despite much speculation in the west that the russian part of the contingent wouldn't leave. also in the program have the job will pick up the top kind of disconnect province is plain to punish the vaccinated with a special type local sellers, how they feel about the hugely controversial plan. i think it's unfair to just say.