ah ah ah ah hello and welcome crossed out. were all things considered i'm funeral about. there are media reports, us intelligence warns of a rush and false flag operation to provoke an invasion of ukraine to those of us who are skeptical this sure sounds like still another weapons of mass destruction. conspiracy theory also, how bad could things get? ah,

to discuss these issues in more i'm joined by my guess, maxine shook off. he's director of the center for advanced american studies at moscow state institute of international relations. and we also have dmitri barbara, she is a political analyst and editor. it interests me. internet media project for a gentleman crossed up rules and the fact that means he can jump in any time you want and i will appreciate it. oh yeah, i was going to, maxine, 1st of maxine are in love my introduction here. i'd like to read some of the words from the national security advisor jake sullivan. he said, russia is laying the groundwork to have the option of fabricating a pretext for an invasion, including to sabotage activities and information operations by accusing by accusing ukraine of preparing an imminent attack against russian forces in eastern ukraine. how do you replied that? because my introduction, i also mentioned weapons of mass destruction. 2003. go ahead. matt. right. well, as were, remember, president putin promised to quote, unquote, military technical response should be until we know fail to address the proposals

unsecured guarantees that the ration delegation put forward in geneva. and i think there's a lot of focus on the military component in that phrase, in the western media. but because there is a lot of uncertainty of what exactly this military technical response may be. there all kinds of things in this discourse, you know, one day they, the day they're, they're talking a lot about the quote unquote univision ukraine before that as well. remember a couple days before there was a lot of hype over rushes, deployments in latin america. so i think that's, it suggests that the, the us side is not entirely clear of the russian intentions. and there all kinds of ways to pump up the domestic discourse of the russia threats. and to show that the administration is actually aware of what actually is going on and what exactly the russians are letting victoria newland was talking the other day about the $1800.00

scenarios that the us intelligence play that's, that's like 18 scenarios is even hard to memorize so i think that's, that's quite telling us the kind of moods in the, in the see at this moment. but that sad, i should say the situation is very serious. and then indeed, precarious. and hope we don't end up in the cuban missile crisis. 2.0, and that is exactly the analogy i've been using for weeks right now on this program . you know, gamer, 18th and heresy. i'd like, i mean it, what was the last week of, of the 3 meetings? you know, us rush, rushing, the nato russia with the always the, and, you know, and now they're looking at 18 different scenarios. i mean, what are ways to time that was, and it sounds like a level of paranoia, in my opinion, because we're, the russian side is that, you know, there is no, no, no real meaningful negotiations, no mutual understanding. then there's going to be

a military technical component to this. we already told you this to happen. i mean, why did anybody be surprised? go ahead demon. well, i think the boys were still useful because let me remind you what the 1st time since 2014, we were talking serious. you know, there wasn't real serious stuff. i'm sorry. i have to disagree with you. i mean, what did they come out from? it ok me, this is the strategy. well let's have more meetings. well, we've been having meetings for 30 years and then we'll continue. it's doubled in 5 years and we should continue talking. i'm sorry my friend, but convince me i'm wrong. well, unfortunately, the west is not accept the rational proposals, even though that doesn't mean your mom then minimum for credit, that sick your situation in europe. i mean, not only american nissan, senior brain,

american, we styles important as the borders government. this is welcome in american nuclear weapons in poland down and that where, where quite willing to have, you know, it's still bad. we are not members of nato in 1987 when the found in that relationship in russia and nato will sign. we didn't sign it so we will welcome to american nuclear weapons. so basically the rational proposals, this is not a dream, it's, it's the minimum and ok americans are not excepting the nature is not accepting it . but at least there may be some of those building measures. there may be some progress on short need to meet the new styles and, and the response. but i agree that basically the american side, everything do what these negotiations. let me remind you. on the 11th anyway, she said, mr. blake made an and i, a russian ram. so you know,

you progress. so you speech your brush. remember, this is the way you ruined negotiations. your basically affect the person that you are talking to. this is why deep and that's where you're appeal shields and the uniforms on national costumes. you know, to create the distance between the person you're talking to and the subject, you know, we're not talking who has human rights. we're talking about security. okay. by the way, mister burrell, you know, that kind of european diplomacy insisted that participate, but want to talk about human rights and you can talk about it for the next 200 years. you know, this is exactly what i was afraid of, but talking about what marks maxon arrays, you know, very examine it. you know, there are certain over the united states about russians, military technical response. well, it's nature old because let me remind you of the ration needed to budget is 14 times smaller than it's for smaller than that combined needed to

budget that all the european allies of this is the data from the only piece research. so if you have a force which is 18 times smaller than the other one, what can you count on and predictability ambiguity? and this is the only way you know, this is basically the reason why we have increase presidential policy in russia. you know the last 20 years. well, the same reason why rules both of late the next do mom did the right for the president, for immediate decisions, you know, without waiting for the congress is consent security. so this is still, there is war. everything is decided to mean is this big data on that security match because it is about security. but the way the western media and blinked and speech was just on becoming of a secretary of state. i mean, i get it just, i'm believable. but i mean, the way it's,

it's constantly being framed and victoria new and an old hand at ukraine for the wrong reasons. i would like to point out is there the, there are different narratives, the nato and the head of nato. the united states wants to constantly focus on ukraine, a member that is a country that's not even a member of nato here, and russia with its proposal to nato entity, united states were sent out in december. this is about pan european security. the americans just don't simply want to talk about that, but all they want to talk about is ukraine. a country that is not a member of nato. go ahead. well, you know, the, if you things i'd like to mention in this regard long if i were to use a sports analogy in the talks in geneva, i would say that the talks produced, you know, like in football or soccer is because in the u. s. you, you to try to, to, to produce some free zones into which you can pass and from which you can score. so i think the talks rebuild that there are some free zones that the, the,

the western side, the americans are tried to create. but these are not the results from which a can spore from which you can actually produce results in that sense. you know, the proposal was let's discuss, you know, the things such as the number of forces, you know, they, the number of military exercises. all of this is important. but at this point, as you pointed out, we've been talking about that for 30 years. and it's not exactly the thing that the russian side once the concrete proposal on the russian side was that during the madrid summit, which is to take place in june 2020 to the nato. if it was serious about security with russia, was supposed to roll out a statement that would denounce the book or a statement of 2008, saying that quote unquote, georgia in ukraine will one day become members of nato at the time. indeed it was, it becomes a kind of consensus or a compromise, rather between the george w bush administration that wanted to print and to in nature and france and germany

. that didn't one the right you for those countries in nato. but it created so much ambiguity in terms of what the western congress could do in ukraine, in georgia, in terms of, you know, threatening russia security that moscow went ballistic. i'm not sure if that's the right metaphor to use in this sense. but we're good to be, we'll be right. that's, that's, that's one thing. and right now the russians are demanding concrete, you know, commitments, if not legal commitments that you know, that would really dispel this 1st, this uncertainty that's, that's one thing. the other thing is obviously the, the u. s. does not see russia as a pure power except for strategic stability and now perhaps cyber domains. and that is exactly the, the, the point that moscow is trying to convey that you can, we can have any meaningful progress on these areas. because these are areas

important to you, but also to us. but we need to, you know, make sure that you address our security guarantees the way we try to address your security guarantees. so in that sense, in all these discussions over rational potential, military deployments in the brain or around ukraine or even latin america, i would personally look at it as a, a rushes way to return real bullets equal realism into the thinking of the american policy making. because over here so far is just political statements, including the ones made by secretary clinton. but the 2nd thing is try to kind of move geopolitical frontier closer to the united states. so it's felt more like a real threat. because right now, it doesn't feel like a real threat for the united states, which grades and all kinds of maneuvers around brain that the bother rushing in. it seems to me, given the rhetoric and the lack of seriousness on the, on the part of nato. and it's member countries is then provoking russia. it's

almost kind of a game. it's a bluff, it's a game of chicken. and, and as we've always pointed out on this program, here is that if there isn't going to be a straightforward response to the proposal, the rest of may, they will have to take matters into their own hands. no one else is going to protect russian and sovereignty except for the russian steamer. well, i think this is the right way to view the situation and picking up on what my team has just said. it was natal that did the predictability and then be during the, in 2008. you know, when at the summit of natal they promised to take your brain and ga internet. at some point. this is a big you, this is on predicted. so russia is trying to reform with less unpredictability, for the reason that i just mentioned, you know, was so much weaker. however, we have certain special kinds of weapons which,

which make it possible for us to dissuade the wife from a taking and picking up on what you said that the beginning of all conversation that's all reminds me of or mark destruction about with saddam saying because the american made you switching the conversation for a wrong track. you know, the real problem is nato expansion to rain or just a moment. i will see you back thought we're going to go to a short break. and after that short break book, continue our discussion and some real mistake with our tea. ah ah. so called enhanced interrogation techniques used by the u. s. officials were basically designed as techniques to break down the human mind. if you

force a human being to stay in a certain position doesn't take very long to the pain involved to become absolutely excruciating, but nobody's lean finger on you. you are doing it to yourself. we started adopting those techniques when i was stationed in mosul among them worse press positions, sleep deprivation, and using hypothermia. there's already beginning to be evidence that these old techniques are now being used on immigrants and children, whatever you do or more comes from home. nobody has been held accountable for the torture that happened in the past. the moral authority, the made america will sacrifice the sham of effective inter ah welcome back to cross stock were all things are considered

non peter labelle. this is the home addition to remind you. we're discussing some real news. ah. okay, let's go back to dina. here in moscow, the my a you were litigating on a point. i want you to finish it off. go ahead. yes. so the conversation is switched to the wrong track. instead of talking about security and the possible you, why my all american and biggest weapons in ukraine, and let me remind you that your brain is as far as just 501 that was from moscow at one point. you know, so this is really dangerous, because russia will have to switch to the new plan option immediately in case over our, you know, their name is just by, from the one with us away from, from the, from the. so that's which of the conversation to put in is going to invade ukraine

. this is the same as 2003. the real problem was when call will do, and i states a back your rock. but then when the media switched it to, he sat down map, you know, why are dusty, find his weapons of mass destruction. when are you going to use them? is all cracked up to be just a huge lie, but no one was held responsible. so why not repeat it now? you know, and the, i think those mobile, the, in the american press, the european press on a stone, you know, you, you are sure right. there is someone named the old black, you know, mr. flack jonathan flag, he is quoted on europe to prepare for a real war with. ready russia with huge casual ways that not only distance stripes, probably that divisions, you know, collide in on the job wasted europe and all of that for the well you great. where understand it's not trains for a bunch of guys,

you know. right. you're great. who came to power bar by while and means who steal, you know, who cracked up to be? the real beneficiary, as all the really beneficial is panama manian or shaws there you these guys are all way you know they you know these democracy. oh my god, people still believe this after all this, it messing with it's really in play. in my mind the leaves is an a symmetrical response to this because it's the most pointed out western so called diplomat because they're not very diplomatic anymore. and of course, the media, they focus on this mean of invasion. of course, russia has no intention of invading. ukraine would be pointless. however, if it would be determined, and this is my opinion, in my opinion, only if it is determined that there are a weapon systems, for example, that would create an existential threat to russia. security rep. russia has already

gone through the motions of meeting all the significant stakeholders. and if they didn't want to listen, russia, security comes 1st for russia, and rushes will take action, some military chemical reaction and reaction to what could be deemed as a potential offensive missile system, for example. and it will be dealt with. and then nato has this quandary. i mean, do we go to war over this missile system? they didn't actually invade the country. i mean what, what they're nickos putting everything in. i mean, this is like one big bet. and it's going to play out very, very badly from not that it's going to play well for russia, either your thoughts. right? well, i think the, what's, what we're seeing now is a 3rd attempt throughout this presidency to negotiate this pen european security infrastructure. the 1st attempt was in 2007 during the many

a speech where he was talking about the dangers of the unit poor world, and draw and clearly rushes. ledger red lines on ukrainian, georgia, and that speech was actually seen as rushes own revenge. just emissions and what happens at the end of the day, year after soccer, really adventurous strike south of santia and the war. and charles, the said here, the 2nd call for serious discussion about the european security was in 2012 and put in this article about russia security guarantees. and that was also in other turbulent environment. after the spring, they pull up the dopy nature's intervention and libya. nobody listened to that either what, what we saw year and a half after was the crisis in ukraine and the crimea spring as they came to call it. now this is a 3rd attempt to do to, to draw a clear line and say, look,

there are security guarantees. there are important there security concerns that are very important to us, a lot more important to us than it is to you. let's, let's, let's, let's get serious about that. and so far there hasn't been very serious attempt, partly because nature in the us are, are short of their own dominance and, and, and, and on the buttons. which in a way, i think is dangerous because it in bold boots some of these solo. so both those leaders in the post so that countries still act in a way that presents challenges for western decision making as much as for russian decision. me. so i think all of the russian military deployments over ukraine are not about intervening in your brain because worse or actual ought to achieve some political goals. there are no political goals in ukraine that russia could deal with room military force. there are other ways to achieve them, but they are exactly in my opinion, to a compelled,

the west to serious talks and be to deter ukraine from attacking numbers. because the number of offences and on bus have increased over the past several weeks, including because of the western supports and rushes view. well hopefully we'll, we'll see more diplomatic way out of this. tell me in all the background of this last week's meetings, i would say pointless meetings, but meetings, none the less and we have the events going on in context on and that, that with no coincidence whatsoever. i mean, it's interesting there. again, there's another, it's a symmetrical. russia doesn't like the, the behavior and rhetoric of the regime in care, but it has no intention of trying to change it. but then as we were going up to these meetings, and during these meeting, we had what appears to be a 4th regime change and conflicts which failed here. so you have, you know,

russia and the military block a very much it off. it's an opposite principles and goals here because back theme is absolutely right. i mean, what with the political goal for russia is security and have secure borders. but the, the aim of nato is gemini, emer. wow. it's just amazing. what happened to the west. the reaction to start to rush in action then alex, don't let me just go, you know, the headline or back. not only these article in the look when you know the french medicine and declared war on europe. and then south side, the ukraine bellows cover, stock where will well, the whole point was that c s your collective security organization. because there was a real quick because i found several 100 people died. dispatch the force of 2500 ma'am just to help because up to god, you know,

the government buildings which was badly damaged by the way, during that disturbance. and the west. this is the patient. this is russia, you know, restoring its following kind of stuff. and then because the president said in a week, i want the stoops out in 12 days and you, in 2 days the withdrawal starts. so now are better troopers are returning. and the worst is not the when the poor judge and you know, this is the same sort as with the sort kelly. but you know, if you read the west press before it was all about homosexual as leads what terrible faith is going to await them. and so, you know, they're all going to be rounded up and then the rest, the nothing happened to them and no one was apologized. the truth is, russia is not inexpensive. you power, not only rational people is peaceful. the rational lead does not 13 by hand, one, area 3, where quite a bit with that, with what the west, the narrative is that book and wants to restore the soviet union. i read condo,

so articles about it since since january 1st this year. and people just don't see the facts, you know, we, what we want is not necessarily allies. we just don't want or style regimes around the regime and or style and steal. we don't want to do the reveal change, the american wait, we expect ukrainians to be given a chance to to, to replace this regime peacefully. and i'm not sure the you don't either, but you got this job because after my done look, the whole package structure suddenly change. you know, the whole record struggle, the change when these peaceful protest, policemen, while they enter the rather the bottom of fatherly, all the different just started to speak differently. no one debt. so policeman killed the wes, this is the more christian, this is the moment when your brain became lost. maxine, where does this,

where are we going with all of this? because i suppose with depresses me the most is the lack of serious, but i mean, like it has already been brought up here. when the russians come to your house, they did, they never leave. i mean, what a projection, i mean, there's so many countries around better getting groups go and they never go home and the rush. i mean, it was only a matter of days. the russian troops were thanked and they went back to their barracks, back in russian rest has no intention of occupying conflicts down or any other country. ok, i mean, and it also showed resolve. and i think my opinion, that was one of the reasons or whatever was whatever operation was being conducted against causing look more at how russia would react. russia did react and it did quite forcefully. so again, where is this all going? how does this n? well, i think what have what we saw in cuz it's, and the western reaction to that was a subconscious desire to see russia get stuck there beyond what,

what the demon just was talking about the, you know, what kinds of reactions i think the, the bottom line was there will hopefully russians will get distracted. and because it was happening in the run up to the geneva talks, the expectation was that the information kind of ambience around that would be really bad for, for, for moscow. you know, so the russians walk in the stocks, but then even even more kind of damage to reputation and stuff. and what happens within 2 days, russia demonstrated very weak and soft results in and fixing the situation. and you know, in and out that ultimately played out well for, for moscow, you know, raise the profile of c, a. c, o reinforces reputation as the only provider of strict security instability in erasure so far. and also the power that is able to operate equally well on both fronts and it's quote unquote,

near border that i think mixed some expectations and make some fillings in the west obviously. so i think so far at this moment, russia has a stronger negotiation position. and is speaking from this kind of real real rate, realism point of view when it comes to you know, assessment, security and priorities. hopefully this would be enough for the west. is that in this conflict we haven't like the logical side. we have a bag matic side and they can't talk to each other. they can't understand the right gentleman. that's all the time we have. want to take my guest here in moscow and i want to think our viewers are watching us here. are the see you next time. remember the the, ah, yes me, i didn't know if that will least the typical there is only 9,

but already diversity students that are way on slash a point. let's see. yep. you got the doors to get a chance that he may come can only costing he will show control such programs. now brochure nebraska, of course with level your special i was the yeah my but i did say the 1st way and of course the certified that was to get up to him was in your mind it was something to do with sue lose with, with his teacher was reason this one is a good oh,

is your media reflection of reality? in a world transformed what will make you feel safe for isolation for community? are you going the right way or are you being led somewhere? direct. what is true? what is great? in the world corrupted, you need to descend a join us in the depths or remain in the shallows. ah

ah ho bid protested corrupting in europe as country to ratchet up new restriction. it is making the lives of the unbox ever more complicated. distracted by party gate of the british media is dominated by headlines over the prime minister lock down parties ignoring the host of other crises from record inflation, to searching living costs. and with the oma calling varied of co been taking hold around the world countries continue rolling out different approaches. look at the latest from the w. h o just a bit later in the program with well it's good to have you with us here for the monday program.