ah, ah, i ah, i'm absent at any watching going on the ground coming over the show with even president zelinski, imploring nato nations not to so panic in ukraine. what happened to the imminent russian invasion that some oil analysts believe will spike crude to $120.00 a barrel after you guys are in secretary list, trust accused moscow of lying and wall to wall nato nation media appearing to relish a story that can mean world war 3, the only when his arms companies and leaders like morris johnson, who faced the prospect of a police interrogation here in london,

we examined both sides of the ukraine crisis. all the same, all coming up in today's going underground at 1st is both ukrainian and russian president try to ease fears of a russian invasion of ukraine, nato nation leaders embroiled in domestic political battles at home, heightened fears of a war with moscow. joining me now from here in london to discuss the way out of this crisis is the biographer of john maynard keynes lords cadell sky emeritus professor of political economy at work and diversity. thank you so much. and lords could ask you for coming on to the joe biden administration, kind of flip flops at the invasion was imminent. now it's any day boss. johnson's foreign secretary list, trusting russia denials about invading ukraine or false, or at least leverage has to prove it. am sure your take on this week's events. i was a bitter asked 1st. well i, i think that, you know, there stoking out the tension out there. i mean, in a way i, i think the west is at the moment and particularly, but it's a sort of, um,

a for example where we have promised legislation which will produce heavy sanctions within 24 hours. if there's one soldier, the cross, the russian soldier, crosses the ukrainian frontier. i mean, that's a kind of, you know, wrapping up tension because i rush is always denied that she has any intention of invading the crane. and this is almost goading. i mean it's, it's, it's very disturbing because i'm a, in a way it's, it's brightness, attempt to take a lead in an issue which it's not really concerned with because it's not part of the normandy process. it's not part of mens, it's, it's really it's really trying to hold nato together, make nato into, into, you know, the, the main,

the main point where is in fact this is a ukraine, russian issue. primarily. i mean, why do you think because there aren't heeding the words of president zalinski, who is alarmed by the of the fact to evacuation of diplomatic personnel from give and i suppose the impact on ordinary ukrainians economically by all this panic. yeah, well they want, they, i mean, i think it's very hard, i think, i think, you know, looking at it from brighten sport to view. they are out of the main negotiation. they're not part of, i mean, the real diplomatic settlements have to be primarily between ukraine and russia. and america and russia, france and germany would play an important diplomatic role. britain is not part of

that, but he wants to get in on the action in the way and it wants to play the car to the champion of nature against russian aggressive designs. and so that's the way it gets into the action. but i think it's highly counterproductive. i mean, i wish the british government would say very, very little and leave the, the, negotiate the negotiations to the parties, mainly concerned which are russia, ukraine, germany, very important, and the united states. well, and i just says let's, let's go to the united states and i should say it's cross political spectrum here. all voices around the house here, storm. i went to brussels this week to talk to nato as devoris johnson, as for joe biden, he has said with all of sholtes, i think, standing next to him, the north stream to has to be stopped, will be stopped germany more circumspect. i'm surely that would just mean that the

russian energy resources will go through the existing pipeline in ukraine, rather than nordstrom and still russian energy. and i don't know how he says how he thinks that the united states will stop it. germany wants to go for i mean, i don't know what that means. we will stop it. we can stop it. there may be some legal grounds for for intervention, but i don't, i don't see how else united states can stop it. and biden's position is, is, is quite ambiguous. i mean, he's got a much more warlike congress behind him than he himself. i think i fails. and of course, and the other thing is the term, the interesting thing is that trump said he wanted the united states to lead nature . ah, and you know, in a way the united states is reassessing,

its position. i'm in the world and that should be an opportunity for some diploma. i think i think trump back down on that eventually saying there was a threat eventually incorrectly back down event. that was his instinct. that was his instinct. while the outcome, assuming it's not going to be terrible casualties and world war 3 to factor as been good for arms companies, obviously our benefiting from all this material and the big outcome. the drawing together in moscow in bay ging do not think that nato understands that or is, does nature one dresser in china ever closer relationship. because clearly that's happening on your you're asking for people to be rational. and that, of course, is a very optimistic view of the way international affairs are conducted. there are rational elements and of course, it is hopeless to drive russia into the hands of china. i mean, that's

a real triumph ironically, isn't it a western diplomacy? but, but one of the point i want to make, and you know, people have been talking about possible neutralization of ukraine and finland as ation as a word that's been used. i've been looking at the case of finland and, you know, the things established a modus vivendi with the soviet union without any help from the west. it was the skill of their own leadership and what they decided they were the conditions of their independence. and you know, i'm looking for some initiative by you pray. i mean, i don't know, i don't know what, what negotiations are going on between ukraine and russia. i'm not privy to that, but it's some, some so some of that solution has to lie with ukrainians themselves. what kind of relationship do they want with russia, which is consistent with their independence. and i'm got a feel for that. i mean,

ukraine isn't to united country finland was more or less united things also for the russian. and i'm impressed with the cost of trying to occupy, but i mean, i'm not, i'm not aware what you praying, reaction is, and i don't think the other countries, they're interested in general security, especially germany, france. but they're not the main actors here. i mean, it's got to be ukraine and russia decide their, their relationship together. and, and that also means the kremlin has to be cautious. i mean, it's very easy to be goaded into action when you and want action really when it's not in your best interest. so everyone has to be coo and i have to think it through. but the main point truly is that you is ukraine, russian relationship. that seems to me absolutely central. i don't know. well,

that's been discuss, marsh in russia, but that's the key to it. well, i mean, the leverage said that the kind of talk are being used, joins with the gerbils textbook, textbook on propaganda when it comes to security agreements in, in your, of, you know, a form, a specialized foreign office. david clark says it's bad. we got ourselves into a situation now where our ability to respond to what pigeon is doing is damaged by wounds inflicted on ourselves politically. this is not a government that's well place to take a lead. the current immediate domestic context is of a government in trouble. a government with a track record, frankly, of engineering, sensational news, interventions in order to distract and reflect from their own difficulties. lever also said that the evacuations of diplomatic staff could mean a full flag that was echoing the american accusations of a russian false flag that could kick off conflict. yeah, well,

both sides really are accusing the other of exploiting domestic difficulties. and there's an element of truth. i mean, when, when, when, when a david clark, i think you quoted says it's johnson's difficulties have weakened our ability, what does our me oh, you are. i mean, britain hasn't got any, any huge row that he's talking on behalf of nature at the same time. it's also clear that president putin has political problems. i mean the, the level of his, the level of the opposition has been rising. so politicians use always use political, they make use of political motives, their motives are political, as well as motives of principle and higher things. and i think you got to take both of those into account in, you know,

they've got to be statesman like both sides very statesman by because otherwise things could escalate out of control without anyone intending. what do you think the media's role is being in the all of this at the moment as regards to echoing, yeah, in britain it's been disastrous. you know, there is a co, lo b in bert, very strong. it's got support in the united states. i didn't think united states is actually the leader colo congress maybe and of course ukrainian lobby in washington . there is one there as well. but, but a but it's the media hadn't played a very, very good row. i found it quite hard to get stuff in the british press, which takes russian security ah, concerns seriously. and it's hard to place these things. i mean, i,

i succeed but you know, with, with difficulty. so, there's a cold war. there's a cold war atmosphere, but it could run out of control if it was allowed to. and that's why it's very important diplomats and states one must start talking with each other. and again, i am besides the point, ukrainians must start talking to russia. but i mean, what do you think about the absolute support that little british labor is giving for boys johnson's position? i think it's an example of the official attitude. it is the one that they feel that in this crisis there should be a national solidarity behind this policy um, over threatening russia with sanctions and severe sanctions. it soon, but you say to me, it's not the trick chilion moment. you know, the trick,

surely and moment britain has to unite to defend itself against aggression. it's, it's, it's a mad conversation. russia is not threatening britain, it's not a security threat to britain. therefore, why they, why are they why they are all uniting as though it were? so i think the labor parties actually misconstruing the function of a good opposition at this time, which is to query the premises of the government's policy. and it's left to a few of us to do that and not many and difficult if you're in parliament because then people might say, oh, you just pray, rush for full stop. let's get else the thank you. thank you. after the break, mutual defense, so mutual destruction is name to a relic of the cold war pushing for conflict in ukraine. all of the more can we

only part to have going on the ground. people don't use big claim for crime, for those, for a reason. the highest percentage in global prime that employ big point peak several years ago at around one and a half percent. and then numbers gone down. calendar one half of one percent. it's not really practical for criminals to use big kline, that's just a point mainstream media uses incorrectly. ah, with

ah, welcome back about one of the show he spoke to lord scale sky award winning by over the late john minute canes, about a way out of the crisis in ukraine. and joining me now from moscow is under a quarter of the director general of the russian international affairs council. thank you so much direct general for coming on. i'm going to start with what turbos johnson's foreign check really is trusted in moscow to the russian foreign minister . so again, lever of prove it, prove the negative that russia is not going to invade your grade. well, you know all the time can that trash is not going to be made ukraine. i wonder how much time the foreign secretary needs to get convinced that aggression is

not within the plan. so for the kremlin, i recall that they, y'all keep talking about the russian asian already a couple of months. i am definitely, if you really wanted to wait ukraine, she would have done it in a very different fashion. but we would have probably seen a covert operation, a surprise operation. you like surprises and apparently, since there's no invention, innovation at this stage show me something better different. but so our media in nato nations tell us, that's why the reason he didn't was because she didn't bring, told him not to during the winter olympics, when vladimir putin visited may jane that that is the that's, that's a good is it? yeah, it's a very convincing argument was so i have to tell you that if you look back into

recent eyes is all of them. well, many of them actually happened during the olympic games. that was the case in 208. when the actually tried to use military means in order to recapture south our c t m, which provoked a war in the south caucasus. and that was the case in 2014 when we had the lympics in. so she and there was a mutiny in key of a crisis for 2014. so olympics seems to be a very good cover for any kind of risk or activities. if nothing happens, i think we can stay, you know, more or less assured that nothing is a likely to happen. and they know, i think that any cost benefit analysis would suggest that a war with u. k is not, you know, actually, just that has been said repeatedly,

but the 1000 troops are on standby. or as johnson does announce sanctions and been ready, johnson saying that russia wants to redraw the security map of europe. what did you make of m, i 6 intelligence that was d classified here in britain saying that the event, mariah ukrainian and p actually band in russia was a de facto russian agent. being prepared to take power and give well, i'm sure that we will see more for we charge you create a list. yeah, well he should, he should deny job. frankly, i don't see how it can be exercised. if you look at the current government to kind of whatever was say about the union state about, well i didn't of the last year has fallen to legitimacy. i don't think that any of in poster a potential for leader brought to crane on now

are with the russian troops is likely to get ability and legitimacy great in society. and i think that everybody in the government should know that or so, i doubt that i it is so something that the government is conspiring to right now. well, president, he has warned that nato nations not to cause panic to obviously the gradient economy. and he's also, i think, the deputy defense minister of ukraine, hannah and molly are said, what are all these review s claims and reports of officials being rural customer? reuters, cnn that their blood supply is being exported there. what, what is the future of moscow have relations? it seems that the lensky was talking with mackerel, perhaps about some kind of tool with moscow. well,

i think you don't need the positional cost. it's clear on ukraine, it wants to comply with the provisions. so that means agreements and that has always been the position taken by the kremlin. i think that the concern is that the leadership might be tempted to use military means in order to resolve the problem. and this is clearly at large for the kremlin, because there are almost a 1000000 of citizens right now. i reside in don't boss. i am definitely on the rational which into interfere, you know, to protect these people will be very strong. why do you think, why do you think it is that even in a donation, obviously they supported the means. agreements are validated by un security council resolution to, to do. and yet, for thomas regions, the gans don't bass,

they don't broadcast about the media about what the, what the responsibilities of kids are in the means. agreements at all. well, my take is the western sympathetic to, to, to you for they want to demonstrate the solidarity of with the printer leadership. and maybe they believe at least some people in the world believe that the means agreements are not fair. 2 of them are they were signed by bipolar shankar with a gun oriented to his forehead and therefore by you, korea has the right to ignore or at least to a wise that means agreements to it's like and that's how it stands right now. but if you put yourself into pollutants shoes, you should ask yourself, why should i allow you came to change? the provisions of that means agreements. if they do not like it and keep,

after all, you know, they sign the agreements and they're supposed to comply with the agreements, even if they don't like it. that's what all of us to refer us to. i presume i'm joe biden. the said that the oven said the don't stream to it finish. i presume he doesn't. just one doesn't alternative russian energy resources through the existing bi blinds in ukraine as an alternative. he wants jo, german chancellor shoals to start buying frack gas from the united states. do you think german john social just persuaded? i'm not sure about that, at least unless something really dramatic happens and you create your own ukraine. my guess is that germany will try to defend the project, argue that this is a commercial project and also that the russian gas pipeline gas is cheaper than american l. n g. and besides that,

there is no guarantee that the united states, so will shoot this guess to germany, because many american producers are more interested in exploring markets in asia, where markets are growing in germany is not exactly the case. so it's a question to what extent the united states canada place as the main supplier of a gas to germany and to europe. but i'm sure that to germany will try to decrease its dependence on there. she guessed it will try to go on with the screen transition in just a matter of time. it will definitely take a couple of years, but maybe a couple of decades to get to carbon neutrality. but i think that germany is firmly committed to this goal, which it will hopefully reach maybe by mid century to rushes and make trouble that

fatty barrel runs. the international energy agency executive director says the appeal to the energy market. any of people has more consequences for russia than for the european union? well, i see that there is a situational, fainter dependence on russia depends on european markets, and those are tries to diversify that. they increase up guess shipments to china, but still i think europe remains and really made the main market tough for, for the russian pipeline. guess, as far as europe is concerned. ok. well, i think that right now gospel may be covers about that for some too close to one 3rd to all of your pin, i guess important. think that this share my jo, shrink box still your will continue to been to the russian case for some time, at least hasn't the pigeon government damage russian business, hasn't it been

a whole failure of diplomacy by the russian government here? the sanctions regime that exists that learn the ones that are threatened by a strong to know to him by the trilateral group with poland and ukraine, to fight to russia and almost daily reports here in major countries of russian attempts at aggression. we've had script and the i know both denied by the russian government to do the bridge fund for an office is russian diplomacy in crisis? well, i think that depends on what priorities are actually, diplomacy has a, if you assume that today security is more important than prosperity i, it's about saliva or rather than about developed, the international system will continue to be very volatile. that i will see more

crisis ahead of us that we will see arms rates and proliferation and regional conflicts and things like that. so then i think which is right because he clearly laces, security above economic interests. you press you that we are moving in the direction. you are globalization, are you from within, in the direction that are, are so far out of them are our if you believe that protection is and nationalism are done or almost done, then probably we can argue that g is wrong and his priorities are not correct. but, you know, the jury is still in session. we simply don't know what's going to happen. and we're all for my chancellor of germany. angela merkel argued that

leave in a different world. if you remember her famous statement that he lived in a different universe. one can say yes, this is right, but it is still an open question. who is universe universe is mario hooton's or that of angle america? yeah, i spoke to lots can else care about the beneficiaries of all this current crisis. obviously, arms companies, but also the relationship between aging and moscow. there's been talk of climate change, helping russia in terms of the thawing of ice in the largest country in the world. is that the, the new century then moscow may ging, the global south against native? well, i hope not. i hope that we're not going to see a new people. i don't see it is very difficult to preserve the old hierarchy in the international system. it's very difficult to mobilize allies. we will see

a lot of the factors. a lot of any gates leaders are trying to play their own games. look at turkey, for example, you know, who is and i got a loyal ally of the united states as a member of the nature alliance, or is he a partner, mr. newton and partner all far, any leaders? are there is no clear answer the question. likewise, you look at india, you know, i think that it is not realistic to expect to get to take sides by india will continue to be a part of the shunt hi corporation organization. the banks at the same time buy to continue to be a part of what it will continue to pursue. it's a partner relations with united states. so it is very difficult to envisage. and you are agent declarative. something like what was saw in the middle of the last century. i think the system will be a much more complex and in certain ways much less predictable and more

controversial. well, they'll both be buying the s 400 in india, and jake good enough. thank you. thank you. that's in the show will be back on monday, 11 years to the day major back to president benner lee of tunisia for demonstrations in his country to find refuge in u. s. u. k. alms by saudi arabia, marking the start of the circled arab spring until then keep in touch by roll out social media. and let us know if you think russia will invade ukraine. ah, ah, ah, a

with the leaders of russia in the us hold crisis. so i made tensions over ukraine divisions on security policy, french police fire tia gas to break up a freedom convoy rally a central powers is blocked off with checkpoints and armored vehicles, all corresponding reports right from the heart of the action. but as you can see, the tear gas easy coming towards us now launched by the police just behind as they were trying to control and over in canada where the movement started. security forces facing off against hundreds of truckers blocking the ambassador bridge a key border crossing with.