russia talks about security ah, discuss these issues and more. i'm joined by my guess. i've been in washington, he's a senior fellow at the independent institute in kingston. we have nichol, i petro, he is a professor of political science at the university of rhode island. and here in moscow we have maxine switch off. he is director of the center for advanced american studies at moscow state institute of international relations. originally across the rules and the fact that means you can jump in anytime you want. and i always appreciated, or i would look like, it's really interesting to me watching this on a month long, imminent vacation messaging from the u. k. and the u. s. everybody is talking about a russian invasion of ukraine, except for ukraine and russia are not. i mean, how do you explain yeah,

clearly a president zelinski and his cabinet are not singing to the same hymn book. and that has been a source as we read in the press of frustration in the united states. because the rest of the nato allies are predictably following along, like that's about. so, you know, like you say, the bottom line is that there is not going to be an invasion. and that leaves me for me, at least the most important question is, what do we do afterwards? what if worse comes to worst and there's no rush an invasion? i'm going to look, i'm going to look for, for american ford, both. i really don't know how we're going to get out of the situation. i mean, you know, why is it the u. s. in the u. k. spearheading this year because we have had on 2 occasions that we know of publicly then you know,

zalinski is not on board is the guy just said here and he's actually pushing back saying it's damaging his economy. and why would you trust your major patrons if you're evacuating your dependence from the country? i mean, and you're not a member of nato, and they're not going to send you troops. i mean, how do you unravel all of that? go ahead. i'm anyone in? well, i think the both ukrainian nato people are doing what they see is in their best interest. and of course, and he has to create a public, a sense of calm. where's the nato allies want to deter any possible attack? which i don't, which i don't think is impossible here because we have there's troops there, there's even the logistics, the blood, the, the hospitals, the stuff that you would do if you were actually not just an exercise,

but an invasion. so, you know, they're looking at the intelligence nato is looking at the intelligence and saying, well, you know, this is very possible. so, and we want to deter it. so we're going to be, you know, we're going to be as forceful in our public relations campaign to try to deter this . and of course, the lens is in the opposite position. he might support that behind the scenes, but he has to publicly say, well i'm, you know, i have to keep the car, keep things calm, the economy going, et cetera. well, i mean, even if i can stay with you, i mean a part of my question is why is the u. s. u k spearheading this? i mean, everyone else is kind of taking their laying out their role here. but the, the u. s. u k. c. particularly interested even to the point of hoping for some kind of conflict or maybe i'm wrong. go ahead. how do you as to that? well, i don't think they hope hope for conflict. i think they're expecting one and i think they're pushing back on it. and that's, you know, that's leading, i mean,

the us is the leader of the alliance, and people look to the united states united states, even back during the cold war. was more concerned with other areas than the countries involved. and i think, you know, the, the russian energy and cook is important in that the russians i have 40 percent export, 40 percent of the europe gas and 25 percent of the oil. so i think, you know, other countries have more mixed you of these things. britain and us are of course, geographically more separated from, from europe. and then rather they wouldn't, they wouldn't suffer any of the consequences. they what they want, others to do. ok, that's clear here. max, i mean i guess if nothing happens, then the west one you were in the deterred invasion. i mean, they played this up because also my cards. everyone. i think this is just been a propaganda effort more than anything else. ok, i mean,

sending 3000 troops to poland and, you know, that's not a major strategic statement considering poland is in nato itself. here. so maxine, i mean, everyone else is playing their role. the russians haven't done anything but the, the, by the administration, the johnson administration will probably declare victory by the end of the week. what do you say? like in maryland, declare with a is the russians, are serious about the security guarantees and they're not getting any. so i don't think this will be so easily even when one of the bye for now to see that in the face of the alleged russian region, the united states has done tremendous harm to the great security instability virtually and still in the no fly. so, oh, great,

now that the insurance companies refuse to get pictures are also, you know, the national currency is down. and i think the 2 things that are missing from the conversation with political interest with the russians want to pursue through the invasion. that is not clear and most important, perhaps what i think is missing in the west. worse is what kind of military maneuvers ukrainian forces do as of yesterday or the printing military. read it with $300.00 for the region. closer to dawn back a might be some potential and of course with it also shows some kind of preparation for some time with the construction. or there might be

a major russian strong to respond and really late in that case. and that's a very clear, quote, unquote, invading part of ukraine camp has no control over the since 2015 nichol. i, you hear this phrase a europe, whole and free. but ever since the end of the cold war that has been pursued, now, not including russia, actually excluding russia intentionally. how can you have a europe, it's free and whole impression is excluded your cache. and that is the point made by rush report, ministry, and coach. and it is also rhetorically been accepted by a number of western leaders. but they haven't been able to get around.

what i think is the major objection. i remember, lord is may's famous quote, that nato was created to keep it, and the americans in the germans down and the russians out. and that really, unfortunately, hasn't changed since the end of the cold war. if russia were ever to become a part of nato, or to have any serious voice in nato, it would mean a degradation of american power and influence in the region. and i think that's what ultimately, the bigger picture is all about. i don't think america really gives a hoot about what is happening. what could happen in ukraine, as long as it maintains it's not always distance, but a certain hostility toward russia. everything will be fine there. we generally don't care about the human rights situation there, which is gone reserved for with the closing of the 6 major television channels,

opposition powers, and charles and non mums. the word here in the west about that, i think the bigger picture from the united states is exactly a maintaining the status quo, and nato not engaging with russia on the issue of broader european security. and the entire education around ukraine helps to make the case for the united states as united states, as a vital leader ever. anyone is that sustainable? i mean, you know, you can talk about intimate invasion, but just for so long either. you can get a little until the next election, but a whole weekend. that's one. that's one conclusion. i mean, even what your thoughts on well, i think got my, my own views always been that nato expansion was a mistake. and that russia should have been brought into the post war post cold war

and european structure as did in the congress of vienna, rather than after world war one, where they closed out germany. and we had a big problem at world war 2. but we should have filed the congress of vienna and 1815, where napoleonic france was brought back into the european structure. and i thought that should have happened and after the cold war. but i'm not sure, i hope there's not going to be an invasion because i think it's a bad move for, for russia to do that. now, simply because i think you're going to get pushback, guerrilla warfare, if they do a full invasion, and you're also going to get, you know, lots of sanctions. and those sanctions will eventually do you know, lesson as, as russia copes with them. but still it's going to be economic pain there for a long time. and i think there are, you know, the whole thing goes down the tubes. it's true, i think rush as legitimate security concerns. and i don't think they have been

listened to, but i'm not sure if this is a good approach on that. that brush is now taking. okay, i'm on that team. i don't see that rush has had a whole lot of choice. so over the last few months we've had war, hysteria hyperbole, you know, they see an, an rolls out all the graphics and all that. it's a big show and all that. but for it was far as russians concerned. nothing has changed because the west isn't a reply in constructively to insecurity demand. 2 letters that were sent out on december 17th, one to the european, one, to nato one to the united states. nothing's been done on that and that realm. go ahead. no, i think my colleague wrote here one here about the congress and they were one on the think is that both cases are not entirely linkable and rushes due to the situation because both france and germany were defeated and it was, you know,

they were pretty much in the stage of the winners and it was a matter of how we were still handled. did you get the rushing in late nineties, in late nineties, embarrassed now that the cold war ended in kind of mutual consent agreed to democratize into the stuff. so russia was not supposed to be a power loss, even though obviously the western mindset was the core, but the expectations were different. so now is the time is kind of the 3rd time since the end of the cold war to review this security border in europe. that was settled on terms i'm favorable to rush and because nobody really cares a me at a certain point. and that's why we have gotten to this point here. i mean, it's unsustainable. as i said in my introduction, gentlemen, i'm going to jump in here. we're going to go to a short break and we'll continue our discussion on some really stay with

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by dreamers shaped by centers and those with theirs sinks, we dare to ask in awe. welcome at the cross that were all things considered peter and bell. this is the home addition to remind you. we're discussing some real issues with

okay, let's go back to mic like, i mean, it's obvious that the, the post war post cold war order is unsustainable for russia. so if it's unsustainable for russia, why, why is it that it is a, a magical and beyond the bounds for them to stand up and say, look, you know that this is not working here? major expansion is creating more tensions, more instability. and we need to reassess it. why serve the stubbornness in the west, particularly in the us? maybe you've already answered. i mean they, they, they want to maintain the gemini and it works for us. why should we change anything? i mean, is that the mindset you alluded earlier to the washington echo chamber, people outside of washington, of beltway, really don't understand how deafening the echo chambers. you really cannot appreciate the interests of other nations in the same way that you listen to the

competing interests within essentially the military industrial complex russian strategy is an interesting one. and it's a traditional one for powers that want to draw attention to their grievances. it's brinkman ship, they push to the edge believing that they have control over the situation and no, exactly how far they can go. the problem with brinkman ship, as we know historically, is that we don't, although the actors in charge are not really in charge of everything. and then they get scared of the consequences of their own action and eventually backed out. in the mean time, sometimes they've learned something from this crisis and re address it as in the case of the cuban missile crisis. and sometimes they go blindly about their businesses. you haven't, even, i mean,

i view is the historical example of the cuban missile crisis. but when, and in this case we, it can be applied in reverse. i mean, you know, we, we had kennedy telling khrushchev, you know, if you don't take those missiles out, we will increase as well. cuba is a sovereign country, has right to have its own friends and alliances and all that. and then, kennedy replied, if you don't take those missiles out, we will. is it an appropriate analogy? go ahead. i but how, but, but unless i get it, go ahead. let's remember how that very quickly, how that crisis actually got resolved each side. got what it really was. it eventually administration, one, the public relations war within the united states. and who show of god exactly what the soviet union wanted. the withdrawal of those missiles and establishment had been effective parity and recognition that parity between the united states and the

so you know that it was the cuban missile crisis that created the soviet union as a superpower in america's mind. and after that, her things found out, okay, i mean, even is they could cuban missile crisis in reverse apps in this, in the situation? well, i think that, you know, that there are 2 very different, different crises, but i, it is a question whether that, whether people learn from these types of things. and i don't think banks midship ever gets anything because it's dangerous. i mean, maybe, you know, come out as we, as everybody did in the cuban missile crisis, you know, and we didn't incinerator the world, but yeah, you know, it was sure scary. and i'm not sure if that's the way to go. right. and i think it's true, russia snap and listen to here, but i just don't think, you know, beating up on a smaller country or threatening a smaller country if you will. is really the problem problem is nato. and i think

it really should, it, wouldn't they really need to negotiate this, and maybe this will be a heads up to nato that, well, maybe we shouldn't put ukraine in there. and that might be a good outcome. but getting there through this through these means is not, is not the correct way to do it. ok, but, but max of make, well, how other, how other way to do it. i mean, rush has been wanting east word expansion of nato since the end of the cold war, and they've demure every single time. so, you know, this is not, this is not our interest. you're moving your alliance military lines to our borders . and of course why she was ignored. left right and center, and now we're at the rubicon and you can ignore it. now you're there. ok. i mean, i don't see what other, what other ways i mean write a letter to stilton burke and say, please don't expand anymore. those days are long in the past if they were ever effective at all. go ahead. maxine, well, i think it was a 20 plus years presidency to try to find out why it's

hard before a you know, well leader clinton early a a day. ready or 210 slash ice coalition for russia went to syria, every single attempt to find common ground. and i think this is a last attempt to try to find some common ground to secure russian perimeter through, you know, we're talking russia do something with me. there are no means, but it won't see yet at this point. everything else is the mind games. and the information worker was pretty much a hasn't done any just yet,

except who troops around. and people are thinking some kind of scenarios and freaking out. and it's a similar, you know, like last year or a 100 troops. wagner, guys in venezuela and people with guys capture for so this might happen. so i think there's a lot of history and a lot of you know, so i didn't even know what to call it. a response to the person who promised is a serious thing. but it all is considered as a last resort if you know was not compelled to talk. so to me, to rush introduce learners are a to compelled to talk, to take or serious to finally and be to deter ukrainian military from possibly

a to fill those newspapers because they're not in their interest. well, we have to point out to the government chapter dumbass before and up to 14000 casualties. so it's not unprecedented. and is there a part, you know, they always talk about russia moving its own troops inside of its own country, but they never talk about ukraine moving its troops in it, within its own country to the point of contact. but again, i don't live in the bubble nichol. i mean, maybe it was made very clear. it's like a fight for ukraine. so why wouldn't want ukraine is a member for it's are willing to fight for it. go ahead out. at present. no one is actually saying they watch ukraine as a member. it's more in the negative. if they insist, then maybe we should consider a, but i do agree that the agreement is likely on the fact that

name that ukraine membership, great membership in nato is not in the cards for roughly 20 years. and by that time we'll have a lot of things will change. i do want to remind everyone in this context because we say we, we talk about war and diplomacy too much as if they. ready were opposite poles and they're not there really on a continuum. and plows of this reminds us of this with this famous phrase. the war is a and extension or a continuation of diplomacy. all the more. so the threat of war. and that i think is what is what we're seeing, that the perception of the threat is much greater in the west and the panicky response in the worse. and i do have to simply professionally judge it as a panicky response. i'm really plays into rushes hats because they're the ones who

will come out of this one way or another, appearing as are the more the com or the more seasoned, and the ones who really have a better grasp. one with the real situation is ivan. ivan, even misprint with reply to that, because you know, the, the, one of the problems with what i call a propaganda campaign is that you can't keep this fever pitch are going on indefinitely here. ok, there has to be some kind of resolution and, and the frustration that i see on this site is that there is still not been a really meaningful, concrete reaction to the security of drafts that they've been russia. and i've read them very reasonable things. are i mean, they're debatable but why it's off the table. you cannot consider these things because it's appeasement and it's beyond it. you know, how do we get around that? because this is hysteria is getting in the way of reason. go ahead. i. well,

i think the west says, well, we know we might negotiate, boat can't do with a gun to our head that's, that's the feeling here. and i, i share some about that because i think the russia, if they deescalate it. 3 you know, put and can say, well, the out, the outgoing situation here, but i want, you know, it, we better have meaningful discussions. and if, if that doesn't work, then i guess, you know, all bets are off but, but, you know, it's, there's no acute crisis here. this is been just come out of nowhere really. i mean, of course, that hasn't come out of nowhere because it has been a decade of nato go going eastward, which is the route. i agree, it's rid of the problem, but i don't. what i don't agree with is that the way that this is being handle on, on the russian side, i don't think this is, there could have been many different ways of a back channel saying, you know, couldn't, could have said listen, you got to do something. and he said that, you,

nick, he said that in munich in 2007, it's a pretty amazing speech. he said it already. he said it over and over and over again. you know, maxine are rapidly running out of time. the so security is indivisible, that only applies to nato countries, doesn't it? it doesn't apply to russia. that's the implication that comes out of brussels every day. go ahead max, well, they think is a need to, in the united states. they're actually willing to discuss these russians with those because they're hacked and these things they have declined to us for years. this has to do with types of things. so these are actually things are going to be important but to the secondary because with a what is important to you and discuss the com. the concept

is it will security is key to produce discussions. if a gentleman, we've had a wonderful discussion, always to little time, want to thank my guess, washington things and, and in moscow. and i want to thank you for watching us here next time. remember, oh ah, a because the advocate and engagement with so many find themselves, well the part we choose to look for common ground.

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a. 1 0, in all the never was the western media is left with on its face after a flurry of predictions that that'd be an invasion of ukraine today. instead, russian troops are returning to place after wrapping up drills of the border. but some can't seem to stop banging the drums of all the give us president, one who's insisting that the threat of an attack remains very railed. the prime minister is in denial and is ignoring the science. he might as well be back at the cottage because he's doing nothing productive or constructive to help this situation. and the canadian prime minister faces mounting pressure from mpm over his decision to trigger emergency powers meant for times of national crisis. but instead in response to a protest, white truck driver with.