ah, hello and welcome to cross stock. were all things considered? i'm peter lavelle. russia's official recognition of the don't the, it's in lugens peoples republics. as independent states, formally puts to an end what was known as the minced piece process. this recognition also creates a new political fact on the ground, and there is nothing nato can do about it. ah, cross stuck in ukraine, i'm joined by my guess intimate pay of in london. she's an analyst on russian and ukrainian affairs in author up through times of trouble conflict in south eastern ukraine explained from within. in delmar, we had scott ritter, he is a former intelligence officer and the united nations weapons inspector. and in sydney we cross a jo loria, he's the editor in chief of consortium news dot com,

all right, process rules that affect, that means it can jump in any time you want. and i always appreciate, scott, let me go to you 1st here. i made, i made mention in my introduction, the mince piece process. that essentially was something that russia, france, germany were guarantors of. and it was certain things that ukraine had to do to keep lou ganske and done nets inside the country. this is what russia has been asking. unfortunately, ukraine never implemented it. and even though the germans and the french always said that, they stand by it, they never put any pressure on the government to implement it. then we go to a putin's recognition. russia's recognition of these 2 peoples republics as independent states. so are you going to miss the mince piece process? scott? of course i am, i had uminski pre peace process been implemented, we wouldn't be faced with what, regardless of where you stand,

whether you're pro nato pro russian or in the middle is going to be a very, very difficult, a geopolitical struggle, a going forward. um, you know, i think everybody's gonna miss the mixed mince processor. i think zalinski is going to wake up one morning and recognize that man i should have just done mention of the germans and the french are going to which they had pressured other the british were going to wish they had pressured. a ukraine, the united states is going to wake up and realize they made a strategic error not forcing. and i say force because the u. s. controls almost everything ukraine does. so the u. s. could have forced this issue. um, you know, the, in russia's gonna regret it because, you know, while russia's taken a principled stand, i, you know, it's in for a hard ride right now. so i think everybody's going to wake up and realize, man, we made a mistake and not, not, not going forward on mence. i think we all have to agree that this is the beginning of something, not the end of something here. and, and show us your book. ok,

so it shows you. but because you're going to be one of the only people in the english speaking media world that's actually going to tell us what the people in done the answer can lugens no cover your face, derek. okay, we got it, we got it, but i mean, how do the people in these 2 and now at least recognized by one country in the world? russia, how do they feel about it? they never are given any agency whatsoever in western media. so give them a little bit of agency right now. anna in london, go ahead in the summer. yes, but it's not something which they wanted and because they never been separated this around like western me did quite often label them. i would say that he would talk to them if you them will, like it dentist. they wanted to join the state where they feel they belong to. so they will, i the fighting to join the ration in 2014 when i to you remind them ukraine was turning into an unfriendly country. will they have an

interest or they wanted to re join a different grade where they will feel more comfortable, more welcoming. so in that sense, kind of making them kind of separate this school wanted to create this kind of republics. if it's not something which they aspire to school, well, this is not something we say ultimately want, but in the kind of situation, it gives them better security guarantees. and that's where the most important point of this process is. now, what we're going to see after that of course, is everybody's guess it might be that he has about something which will stop the war. but it might be a spiral news commission as a joke. or where do we go from here? i mean, obviously the as we speak now, new sanctions are being being thought of and probably implemented. we've seen all of this before. we saw it after crimea and, and the,

and the russians go into this with really open eyes here. also we had a north stream twos, a certification has been halted. that is an important issue here, but that's fully, i fully expected that and i think it that certification will continue probably in a few months at, by the end of the year. it's just too important to europe and to germany, but the russians have made it very clear that their security is very serious for them. i look at all of these meetings, all of this, talk all of this a shuttle diplomacy going nowhere. talk is cheap actions speak a lot and we just got it with the recognition of these to break re republics. jo. yes. love in the coming days, we'll see whether things calm down in the hands and don't ask. that was the reason archer did what they did. so if there is a resumption shelling with russian troops, there'll be very interesting to see what happens. um, we have to hope that is calm, but you're absolutely right. the. the overarching issue here has been european

security, and this began back in december, you know, in spring of last year, russians also had a troop deployment, very similar to the one before now. and the u. s. didn't start screaming invasion then. what changed would change was russia put forward these draft proposals to nato, and the united states, that they would not allow a ukraine or ga, into nato, that they would remove the missiles from poland and romania and it would, most importantly, they would remove forward deployments from the former warsaw pact states, they're now nato members. what did the u. s. do they responded to that? they responded not like a bully, as i always thought the u. s. blogs, but almost like a psycho now because when a victim whose finally standing up for themselves after 20 years and markins don't get this because they've never been invaded before. where russia of course chased the major power and the european power on the 19th and 20th centuries. and defeated both of them. this is a deeply, obviously, in the russian psyche in the americans on understand that we don't want to

understand this. so the idea of nato expanding to the east was clearly seen as russia by russia for 20 years of 1st point up to 1007 by a president, putin and munich, a security con conference that this had to stop. and finally, when you stand up to bully, most bullies will stand back with united states to doubling down. and in when a victim says, please don't we please remove the nato troops at nissan. you are. what in the u. s . do they put more troops? yes, right in eastern europe, they said that was in response to the crisis in ukraine, but that style, hundreds of kilometers away, is not in the theatre of expected war. why did they put those troops there? because the issue for us was also, we're not gonna to accept russia standing up to us and the expansion of nato. and that is a very troubling development there. that the u. s. will not even talk about this. they've doubled down and acting in a very strange way and not wanting a russia to have their security. now, what happened, of course, is in french and the germans were at least listening and understand it,

particularly micro on that. russia has a point there in that they've had to talk about new security arrangement. now, by, by recognizing the 2 republics, this as the l. a native, direct, french on the germans from russia. maybe i think that the russians finally decided that minced was dead and the american and the british of, sorry, the germans in the french were hopelessly an american camp. well, i mean, anna, if i go back to you in london, i mean, i, again, you know, that the russian issue here, primarily is nato expansion. but, you know, they, the nato countries said that they would not some protect you ukraine. they would not defend it with their own troops. and then you have the major western embassies evacuated and they say, i mean, and then lugens and on the exc is finally gone. crimea is gone forever. i mean, it's kind of a moot point. i mean, who and ukraine actually believes that, that the, the west actually wants ukraine and nato. it's ukraine that keeps losing every single step of the way ana and london is always yes,

but i would say enough to pictures one us firstly, i don't think that amused agreements and i think that different government in ukraine can actually ever provide them and take them as a guide, a solution of the crisis because to be fair and not only in the means agreements in that sense of 2014 and 15. it's not important the only commission by russia. now it doesn't mean that music is actually there in current clinical climate. it is not something which is very viable, but it has a big political commitment. yes, i think that they are still valid and they have been handled by the un security council resolution. so we should not be giving up on them in time in terms of the agreement. yes, i would say that the ukranian government felt that the counsels in security problem

in the east to the western powers that they got their tactics offers will be the conflict was to persuade the west to pressure eyes or i have a pressure, right? the republics in accepting some kind of pre 2014 situation that didn't work. yeah. the hard work which was supposed to be happening on your premium plan as well as in the, in the 3, the materialize, the out sourcing to the west. what's on that is pulling a level on sentence level, but it is, it has of course, limitations. what we have seen recently is probably why crazy overreaction. and that follows what happened in the when the

time, if i'm in boston, underestimated. so the american, the intelligence did not pick the signals, which obviously was the, that the kind of bomb case just i was away from the what they can come to. so now we saw this really disastrous seems to me with the equation. now they told, all right, let us be prudent, ah, let us preempt that kind of scenario. because if it doesn't have to do unless, ag. uh, if you month, well, i mean, i mean, but then it seems to me that the, all you know, ever since though november it's been the u. k. and the united states actually wanted to military conflict. they were, you know, an anthony blinking at the united nations. he's basically projecting making all these accusations. but in fact, that's exactly what the us does all the time, all around the world. i mean, i've never seen a secretary of state to base him so much. i said colin powell, i must say ok so you know, you know, it looks like, you know,

this was much more smoke and mirrors than anything else because it's not nothing that the, the intelligence community has said about this makes any sense at all about the jump in here everybody, we're going to go to a short break, and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on ukraine staying with our team. ah ah oh, more than 20 years have passed since one of the world's deadliest terrorist attacks that took thousands of lives. people started to scream, there was a wave that came over us that was like opening up an oven door, not all wounds of heel. the survivors and responders have increased rates of cancer and other health issues due to the dust and chemicals they inhaled. i come here to

get my blood cleaned out, the, the metals with obtaining a little of blood cutting in my blood in terms of 1st responder was well over a 100001st responders. and there was some estimates that tend to 20 percent still happy with it. so i will i cherish a minute. i have with friends, i thought i was home before this really home was you appreciate life with

ah ah, welcome back to cross top were all things are considered. i'm peter rebel, to remind you we're discussing ukraine. ah. okay, let's go back to scott scott: more than anything else. this has been an information war more, i mean, in this looks like the run up to iraq, but on steroids. okay. everyone speaking from the same hem she to, i'm looking at american cable stations. it's got you hear the same mantra approved

and wants to rebuild the soviet union without any scant evidence, whatsoever is the case as a matter fact. i think, as you've pointed out or out already on this program here, i mean when you have your back up against the wall, you're not building an empire trying to maintain what you have. and that's exactly what we've seen going on with this new version of the crisis since november. go ahead, scott. like, you know, one of the interesting things is that i'm glad report and gave one of the most honest speeches. a modern politician of global significance is given in some time it matches of it. you know, the only thing that matches it is, is 2007 address. you know, security conference or, you know, it was, it was a speech. however, that requires a little bit of an intellectual competence understand. and unfortunately for present booty, he was speaking over the heads of the american people, the american politicians, and the american media. i'm, your russian studies has been dead in america since the cold war in russia has been

put on the back burners and insignificant language and insignificant culture. insignificant nation. i in the re emergence of russia as a, as a global player. as america ill equipped to deal with this reality. and so all we have left is propaganda propaganda. that is not fact based it's. it's designed to support a political narrative not, not a not, not reality. and you say, you know, it, the unseen since iraq. let me make the, the following point in iraq, we were jenina propaganda that could be backed up by military for spinning that we were selling a war. and we were prepared to fight and we didn't fight it. we didn't, we didn't do too well, but we, we, we did fight it. here we are, a united states is, is, is pushing forward a narrative that we're ill prepared to deal with our sanctions. i believe we're gonna are going to fall flat where it's going to be a big political statement. you're going to see it unfold in the coming days and

weeks. but it's going to go nowhere because russia has had time to prepare for it. a russia didn't just sit back and say, hey, we're going to get ourselves in a tussle with the west. oh, my goodness. second is, we're sanctions. we surrender. that's not going to happen. and the other thing is that russia is a go a as a, from a foreign policy standpoint, basis every thing they do in a legalistic foundation. it's not simple propaganda. it's not, you know, your artificial narrative. it's, it's founded in legal fact in legal precedent. and that means that russia isn't going to be pushed off of its position of readily. so i think where, you know, the united states is found that we have a lot of hot air floating around. we have nothing of substance, rushes the only one that to put something of substance out there and in a storm. you find that it's the building made out of stone that continues to stand . the flimsy, you know,

wouldn't structures that the west has been building. you know, you know, joe, i just kind of echo, went to scott was saying, right there it wheatley, it's been pointed out here in december it was december 17th. the rushes sent documents to nato and to the united states. and the reply always is, but it's not in line with our values. and that's when, you know, they didn't read the document in that, and that's when you know they have no answer to what would the, the demands that were being made. you always know that they go back to values, whatever they may be here. but it, you know, the problem here for and for policy makers, is that the issues that russia has been bringing up, particularly with those 2 drafted treaties. they're not being addressed. ok. and until they're addressed, we're going to continue having and situations had been played out in like during this week. so, i mean, it's really incumbent upon western policy makers to start getting their act together. because russia is going to start making decisions based on its own

definition of security, go ahead, joe. and the united states cannot conceive of themselves as being aggressive. they still have a world war to fantasy of having defeated hitler. of course, it was russia that mostly defeated hitler. they see themselves as spreading democracy, although they've overthrown numerous democracies from chile, in guatemala to ukraine. but they projected you mentioned projection. as this week, they put out a, they sent a letter to the un high commissioner for refugees saying that they had from mimi from intelligence that they didn't cite. of course, they never do that. russia was got anyway, i completely take over ukraine, including key of that lists of journalists and dissonance. they were going to capture and kill and torture and concentration camps and journals, etc. and then you look at the united states record in the last couple of decades. so i will grab, it was a torture center. they have guantanamo, it's a concentration camp on cuba. they have a journalist join, a sonton prison in london,

told just what they were choosing russia planning to do. and actually using the un as a foil here to try to spread this story that they themselves do. and i do believe what you also said beated that the u. s. seems to wanted this wars not question. they were screaming every single day was a distraction from the nato treaty, the treaties, the draft treaties director put forward. but they seem to wanted to drag drag russia into a trap in the don bass by starting up this offensive and cleverly, the civilians were evacuated. first, the recognition of the republics putting russian troops in there to try it in a peacekeeping role in a country they now legally recognized they were invited it because no other country does recognize that the american response was quite mute in a way, strangely enough. they didn't, and called it the invasion right away that they are expecting. so they want them to go to kia. and, you know, if biden says 8.2.4000000 innocent people in te,

ever gonna be bonding. i dying their beds from russian bombs. but then they say the defending ukraine, i mean, it undercuts the credibility of that. they really believe this will happen by not sending troops there. if they american sent troops and not, i'm not advocating. they do that, of course. but it's, they really believed ukraine was going to be over run like this. you know, how could they let this happen because they don't give a damn, i mean, any ill innovate, you know, and the afghan government forces were, again, be able to hold the country. okay. i mean, right, this is a kind of intelligence we're dealing with her. and let me go to you. do you think now there's going to be pressure from the united states in the u. k. in particular, to mountain offensive against these newly departed republics? i mean, what are the, what is kim's position right now, they're obviously not very happy about it, but they didn't do very much to keep those new republics in. so, i mean, where does a camp government stand? now? you can say that to some extent can government can also draw the section for that because you might also have a back. they wanted the satisfaction of restoring

the territorial integrity, but they didn't really want. this can hostile and bitter net people don't back home and they would need to incorporate them that's really quite difficult. after 8 years old, separate existence. so in that sense, it kind of takes no pressure from them to somehow be seen as implementing music agreements. the only thing that people actually doing something, so now they can say ok, we probably wanted to do something, but the station made it impossible. so in that sense it is, if you can say that he has some point which they scored in terms of your argument about the us and the u. k. one to one thing you want, i just need to be so they will want me to have a little bit of

a kind of demonstration that said a little commission here and there they last you one crash to be seen as to some extent, go back to having a bit of luck and now some of the minute to me want to see how the western weapons would be form against the real and the me who actually shoot back. but i don't think the west well a, if i, with all due respect and i mean the us and other nato countries been pouring a lot of arms into your grain. and that's for one reason. and one reason only. and that is to use them. and of course, and i say this all my guess here with the u. s. u k, were doing it is very low cost to them. they have no skin in the game except for they want everybody else to fight with. and they want russia, obviously to be isolated in europe. let me go to scott right now. it's got where do we go from this now because i keep pounding away, is it rushes demands have not been met. so this isn't far from over. and i'd like

to point out to ever since 2014 russia is more or less sanction proof. ok. they've already, they've already dealt with those issues almost completely across the board. here. a bullies don't like to be shown up in public. ok to be made, complete fools of you know, planning the invasion, the date, the hour. what are we supposed to do? get on the roof with our, with binoculars? i mean, they made complete buffoons out of themselves. they don't like to be shown up like that. go ahead, scott. i think we are in for a long haul and it's going to be very uncomfortable for all parties involved, especially the ukrainians are going to be stuck in the middle. as you pointed out, russia has prepared itself for the reality of sanctions. now we'll see, you know, because prior to this week we had the theory of massive sanctions. russia no sanction, they've been sanctioned by the west of the 1014 rush understands how its economy works. it understands what it's vulnerable points are,

and i'm sure they've prepared for it. you know, who hasn't prepared for any of this europe in the united states, right? because of these sanctions go down the path. they look like europe is going to suffer egregiously, their economies will collapse. many of their, many of the european nations there currently are now pounding their chest about how tough they're going to be. are going to be crying in pain as their economies collapse. and you know, who else is prepared? the american people when gas prices go through the roof, when inflation goes to the roof when the economy collapses, when their paycheck is worthless, there's only gonna be asking pertinent questions like, what the heck are we doing? and at that point in time, i think you're going to see it in russia isn't going to budge. let me just make that point. i don't believe russia is going to budge. a rush is going to stick to its principles. 6 years. arguments in the west is going to have to come to them. and that's what's ultimately going to happen. now. while, while this game is being played about who cannot wait home and believe me out, russia cannot wait the west. there is the question of ukraine. i can this conflict

be confined? who don't yet lugens in terms of what's currently going. i don't believe so. i believe that a ukraine is it can't tolerate the zalinski can't survive as a politician and i, the west is going to egg him on. because as you have rightly pointed out, that there are some people in the west of romanticize, the concept of ukrainian resistance. and, you know, and they, and, and, and of course we've poured in the west of being over a $1000000000.00 of modern weaponry. i'm, but the reality is ukranian army isn't probably trained on these weapons. they haven't properly integrated into their structure and the like a viable doctrine, tactically, operationally, strategically to, to use these weapons which weapons are useless. yeah, so the rental warehouse and um, i am afraid that. busy uh. busy you guys are gonna be pushed by the west. i have been gotta have that job and i have the job here on this very depressing. uh, but actually re with you on that. now with it, we have run out of time. many thanks my guest in delmar. london and in sydney and

thanks to our viewers for watching us here in our t. see you next time. remember, cross taco bell. i was thinking somehow i had to come back because mom was waiting for me. i just knew that everything would be fine for some reason, really were so confident because we were going to get married officially after he came back. how could he not come back? because the mere thought of it never crossed her lines. the militants decided to try and break through. i heard you guinea ap of screaming grenade, giggle, who the explosion blew him. we'll run his bag through zillow,

and it was all over the ocean. we know that our comrades and our commander won't leave us yet. no matter how tough it gets, where team your vehicle. if kenny was a senior in his military trio, only that he knew that if he didn't smother that grenade with his body, more of his comrades would die. he gave his own life to save his friends. oh is your media a reflection of reality in the world transformed what will make you feel safe? isolation community? are you getting the right way or are you being led to some way to direct what is

true? what is faith? in the world corrupted, you need to descend a join us in the depths or remain in the shallows and by drink shapes, bankers, or those with theirs sinks we dare to ask

ah, with, with a native euclidean full of his have stepped up across board, a shell finance in russia recognize any republics. the head of the donors people's republic deny is the western report of russian troops entering the area while saying that can be brought to an ex. escalades with western powers head, russia with a wave of sanctions. while moscow says soaring, energy prices are going to hurt consumers worldwide in blood from moscow. thanks for joining us this evening and all the international on daniel hawkins. we're the well this our welcome to the pro.