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hello and welcome to cross talk. we're all things considered. i'm peter lavelle. russia is official recognition of the don't the, it's in lugens people's republics. as independent states formally puts to an end what was known as the minced piece process. this recognition also creates a new political fact on the ground. and there is nothing nato can do about it. ah, cross talking ukraine, i'm joined by my guess and in my pay of i in london, she's an analyst on russian and ukrainian affairs in author up through times of trouble conflict in southeastern ukraine, explained from within in del mar, we have scott ritter. he is a former intelligence officer and the united nations weapons inspector. and in sydney we cross joe loria, he's the editor in chief of consortium news dot com, all right, process rules and effect. that is,

it can jump in any time you want. and i always appreciate, scott, let me go to you 1st here. i made, i made mention in my introduction, the the mince piece process. that essentially was something that russia, france, germany were guarantors of. and it was certain things that ukraine had to do to keep lugens and done yet. so inside the country, this is what russia has been asking. unfortunately, ukraine never implemented it. and even though the germans and the french always said that, they stand by it, they never put any pressure on the government to implemented. then we go to a putin's recognition. russia's recognition of these 2 peoples republics as independent states. so are you going to miss the mince piece process? scott? of course i am, i had uminski pre peace process been implemented, we wouldn't be faced with what, regardless of where you stand, whether you're pro nato pro russian or in the middle is going to be a very, very difficult, a geopolitical struggle, a going forward. um, you know,

i think everybody's gonna miss the mixed mince processor. i think zalinski is going to wake up one morning and recognize that man i should have just done mention of the germans and the french are going to which they had pressured. other, the british are going to wish they had pressured, a ukraine, the united states is going to wake up and realize they made a strategic error not forcing. and i say force because the u. s. controls almost everything ukraine does. so the u. s. could have forced this issue. um, you know, the, in russia's gonna regret it because, you know, while russia's taken a principled stand, i, you know, it's in for a hard ride right now. so i think everybody's going to wake up and realize, man, we made a mistake and not, not, not going forward on mence. i think we all have to agree that this is the beginning of something, not the end of something here. and, and show us your book. ok, so it shows you. but because you're going to be one of the only people in the english speaking media world that's actually going to tell us what the people in

done the answer can lugens no cover your face, derek. okay, we got it, we got it, but i mean, how do the people in these 2 and now it least recognized by one country in the world? russia, how do they feel about it? they never are given any agency whatsoever in western media. so give them a little bit of agency right now. anna in london. go ahead in the summer. yes, but it's not something which they wanted because they never been separate this around like a western me did quite often label them. i would say that he would talk to them if you them would like it dentist. they wanted to join the state where they feel they belong to. so they will, i the fighting to join the ration in 2014 when you remind them ukraine was turning into an unfriendly country. will they have an interest or they wanted to re join a different grade where they will feel more comfortable,

more welcoming. so in that sense, kind of making them kind of separate this school, wanted to create this kind of republics. if it's not something which they aspire to school or this is not something we say ultimately want. but in the concentration, it gives them better security guarantees. and that's where the most important point of this process is. now, what we're going to see after that, of course, is everybody's guess it might be that yes, that would something which will stop the war. but it might p s final new commission as a joke, or where do we go from here? i mean, obviously the as we speak now, new sanctions are being being thought of and probably implemented. we've seen all of this before. we saw it after crimea and, and the, and the russians go into this with really open eyes here. also we had a north stream twos,

a certification has been halted. that is an important issue here, but that is fully i fully expected that and i think it that certification will continue, probably in a few months at, by the end of the year. it's just too important to europe and to germany. but the russians have made it very clear that their security is very serious for them. i look at all of these meetings, all of this, talk all of this a shuttle diplomacy going nowhere. talk is cheap actions speak a lot and we just got it with the recognition of these to break re republics. jo. yes. love in the coming days, we'll see whether things calm down in the hands and don't ask. that was the reason archer did what they did. so if there is a resumption shelling with russian troops, there'll be very interesting. see what happens. um, we have to hope that is calm, but you're absolutely right. the. the overarching issue here has been european security. and this began back in december, you know, in spring of last year, russians also had

a troop deployment. very similar to the one before now. and the u. s. didn't start screaming invasion then. what changed would change was russia put forward these draft proposals to nato, and the united states, that they would not allow a ukraine or ga, into nato, that they would remove the missiles from poland and romania and it would, most importantly, they would remove forward deployments from the former warsaw pact states, they're now nato members. what did the u. s. do they responded to that. they responded not like a bully, as i always thought the u. s. blogs, but almost like a psycho now because when a victim a who's finally standing up for themselves after 20 years and markins don't get this because they've never been invaded before. where russia, of course, chased the major power and then european power on the 19th and 20th centuries, and defeated both of them. this is a deeply, obviously, in the russian psyche in the americans on understand that we don't want to understand this. so the idea of nato expanding to the east was clearly seen as russia by russia for 20 years have 1st pointed out 2007 by a president,

putin and munich, a security conference that this had to stop. and finally, when you stand up to bully, most bullies will stand back with united states to doubling down. and in when a victim says, please don't we please remove the nato troops at nissan. you are. what in the u. s . do they put more troops in eastern europe? they said that was in response to the crisis in ukraine, but that style, hundreds of kilometers away, is not in the theatre of expected war. why did they put those troops there? because the issue for us was also, we're not gonna to accept russia standing up to us and the expansion of nato. and that is a very troubling development there. that the u. s. will not even talk about this. they've doubled down and acting in a very strange way and not wanting a russia to have their security. now what happen, of course, is in french and the germans were at least listening and understand it, particularly micro on that. russia has a point there and that they've had to talk about new security arrangement. now, by,

by recognizing the 2 republics, this as the l. a native, direct, french on the germans from russia. maybe i think that the russians finally decided that mince was dead and the american and the british of, sorry, the germans in the french were hopelessly an american camp. well, i mean, anna, if i go back to you in london, i mean, i, again, you know, that the russian issue here, primarily is nato expansion. but, you know, they, the nato countries said that they would not some protect you ukraine. they would not defend it with their own troops. and then you have the major western embassies evacuated and they say, i mean, and then lugens and on the exc is finally gone. crimea is gone forever. i mean, it's kind of a moot point. i mean, who and ukraine actually believes that, that the, the west actually wants ukraine and nato. it's ukraine that keeps losing every single step of the way ana and london is always yes, but i would say enough to pictures one us firstly, i don't think that amused agreements. i think that different government in ukraine

can actually ever provide them and take them as a guide, a resolution of the crisis because to be fair and not only in the midst agreements in the 10th of 2014 and 15. so i think it's a nation by russia now, it doesn't mean that music is actually the current clinical climate. it is not something which is very viable, but it is a big political commitment. yes, i think that they are still valid and they have been handled by the un security council resolution, so we should be giving up on them in time in terms of the agreement. yes, i would say that the ukrainian government felt that they've councils in security problem in the east to the western powers that they got. their tactics

offers will be the conflict was to persuade the west to pressure rise or i have a pressure right? the republics into accepting some kind of 32014 situation that the know yeah, the hard work which was supposed to be happening on your premium plan as well as in that i didn't really materialize the out sourcing to the west works on that is pulling global on sanctions level, but it is, it has of course, limitations. what we have seen recently is probably why crazy overreaction. and that it follows what happens in the whether the threat time it has been bucket under estimated. so the american intelligence did not speak

the signals, which obviously was the now not the kind of bomb he's just, i was away from what they can come, who. so now we saw this really disaster seems to me with the equation. now they thought, all right, let us be prudent. ah, let us preempt that kind of scenario. because if it doesn't look at it unless a after a few months, well, i mean, i mean, but then it seems to me that the, all you know, ever since no november, it's been the u. k. and the united states actually wanted to military conflict. they were, you know, and anthony blinking at the united nations. he's basically projecting making all these accusations. but in fact, that's exactly what the us does all the time, all around the world. i mean, i've never seen a secretary of state to base him so much. i said colin powell, i must say ok so you know, you know, it looks like, you know, this was much more smoke and mirrors than anything else because it's nothing that they the intelligence community has said about this makes any sense at all about

the jump in here everybody, we're going to go to a short break, and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on ukraine staying with our team. ah ah ah ah ah, i didn't hear across the entire ocean capital. this is audrey international. ah, with

what else showing wrong, what i just don't know any you won't have to shape out disdain. because the answer to an engagement equals the trail. when so many find themselves world warren, we choose to look for common ground. it's been 30 years since the soviet union collapsed. mom miss global, other literature well, the one to what the problem yet nuclear you talk so, so shown where you also trust them with all of them. ukraine was one of the independent states that emerged from the ruins of a super bowl. i'm doing awesome. good. would you also get on google greens? come on little. i'm surely confusing. some of the i can last new lease in west new did better one more law, a social for you to view the seriousness of this,

but to scribble, bring and finish out the should with water. the past 3 decades been likely ukraine. eye witnesses were cool. the events, this will be more or less to do to ship with that little what i knew that with that order. i'm not sure, but it didn't budge for months with water. what else? and what other forces were at play? the producer to whom you should see in ship russia, in the same you put in the kid a watered america when it shows up in the most of the versions, only take a look at ukraine 30 years after gaining independence. you don't get to your phone with us for dinner unless you mean like unity retorted mostly will way. but a will. it could be issue ok of lush will still holding no problem. ah,

welcome back to cross top where all things are considered on peter a bell to remind you we're discussing ukraine. ah okay, let's go back to scott scott, more than anything else. this has been an information war more i mean in this looks like the run up to iraq, but on steroids. okay. everyone speaking from the same hem she to, i'm looking at american cable stations. scott, you hear the say mantra. approved and wants to rebuild the soviet union without any scant evidence, whatsoever is the case. as a matter fact, i think as you've pointed out or out already on this program here, i mean when you have your back up against the wall, you're not building an empire trying to maintain what you have. and that's exactly what we've seen going on, which is new version of the crisis since november. go ahead, scott. well,

i guess one of the interesting things is at the bladder report and gave one of the most honest speeches. a modern politician of global significance is given in some time it matches of it is the only thing it matches. it is, is 2007 address. you know, security conference. so you know, it was, it was a speech. however, that requires a little bit of an intellectual competence to understand and unfortunately for present booty, he was speaking over the heads of the american people, the american politicians and the american media. your russian studies has been dead in america since the cold war in rush has been put on the backburner is an insignificant language and insignificant culture. insignificant nation. i in the re emergence of russia as a, as a global player. as america ill equipped to deal with this reality. and so all we have left is propaganda propaganda. that is not fact based. it's. it's designed to

support a political narrative not, not a not, not reality. and you say, you know, it, yan seen the since iraq. let me make the, the following point in iraq. we were getting a propaganda that could be backed up by military force. spinning that we were selling a war and we were prepared to fight. and we didn't fight it, we didn't, we didn't do too well, but we, we, we did fight it up here. we are, a united states is, is, is pushing for a narrative that were ill prepared to deal with. our sanctions, i believe, are gonna are going to fall flat where it's going to be a big political statement. you're going to see it unfold in the coming days and weeks. but it's going to go nowhere because russia has had time to prepare for it. a russia didn't just sit back and say, hey, we're going to get ourselves in touch with the west. oh, my goodness. second is, we're sanctions. we surrender. that's not going to happen in the other thing is that russia is a, you know, a as a, from a foreign policy standpoint basis,

everything they do in a legalistic foundation. it's not simple propaganda. it's not, you know, your artificial narrative. it's, it's founded in legal fact in legal precedent, and that means that russia isn't going to be pushed off of its position of readily . so i think where, you know, the united states is found that we have a lot of hot air floating around. we have nothing of substance, rushes, the only one that put something of substance out there and in a storm you find that it's the building made out of stone that continues to stand. the flimsy, you know, wouldn't, structures at the west has been building. you know, you know, joe, i just to kind of echo, went to scott was saying, right there it, we, it's been pointed out here in december. it was december 17th rushes sent documents to nato and to the united states. and the reply always is, but it's not in line with our values, and that's when, you know, they didn't read the document in that. and that's when you know they have no answer

to what would the, the demands that were being made. you always know that they go back to values whatever they may be here. but, you know, joe, the problem here for and for policy makers, is that the issues that russia has been bringing up, particularly with those 2 drafters treaties. they're not being addressed. ok. and until they're addressed, we're going to continue having a situations had been played out in like during this week. so, i mean, it's really incumbent upon western policy makers to start getting their act together. because russia is going to start making decisions based on its own definition of security. go ahead. joe holly in the united states cannot conceive of themselves as being aggressive. they still have a world war to fantasy of having defeated hitler. of course, it was russia that mostly defeated hitler. they see themselves as spreading democracy, although they've overflow numerous democracies from chile and guatemala, to ukraine. but they project and you mentioned projection. as this week,

they put out a, they sent a letter to the un high commissioner for refugees saying that they had from mimi from intelligence that they didn't cite. of course, they never do that. russia was got anyway, i completely take over ukraine, including key of that lists of journalists and dissonance. they were going to capture and kill and torture and concentration camps and journals, et cetera. and then you look at the united states record in the last couple of decades. so i will grab, it was a torture center. they have guantanamo, it's a concentration camp on cuba. they have a journalist join, a sergeant prison in london, told just what they were choosing rush of planning to do, and actually using the un as a foil here to try to spread this story that they themselves do. and i do believe what you also said, beated that the u. s. seems to wanted this wars not question. they were screaming every single day was a distraction from the nato treaty. the treaties, the draft treaties director put forward. but they seem to wanted to drag drag

russia into a trap in the don bass by starting up this offensive and cleverly, the civilians were evacuated. first, the recognition of the republics putting russian troops in there to try it in a peacekeeping role in a country they now legally recognized that they were invited it because no other country does recognize that the american response was quite mute in a way, strangely enough. they didn't, and called it the invasion right away that they are expecting. so they want them to go to kia and you know, if, but biden says 8.2.4000000 innocent people in t ever going to be bonding a dying their beds from russian bombs. but then they say to defending ukraine, i mean, it undercuts the credibility of that. they really believe this will happen by not sending troops there. if they american sent troops, i'm not, i'm not advocating. they do that, of course. but it's, they really believed ukraine was going to be over run like this. you know, how could they let this happen because they don't give a damn, i mean, or any ill innovate in the afghan government forces who are getting able to hold

the country. okay. i mean, right, this is a kind of intelligence we're dealing with her. and let me go to you. do you think now there's going to be pressure from the united states in the u. k. in particular, to mount and offensive against her? these newly departed republics. i mean, what is it, what is campus position right now, they're obviously not very happy about it, but they didn't do very much to keep those 2 republics in. so i mean, where does a camp government stand? now? you can say that to someone who can come can also draw the section for because you might also have this argument a back. they wanted the satisfaction of restoring the territorial integrity. but they didn't really want. this can hostile and bitter net people don't boss who they would need to incorporate them. that's really quite difficult. after 8 years old, separate existence. so in that sense, it kind of takes no pressure from them to somehow be seen as

implementing means. agreements are going to put the thing that people actually doing something. so now they can say ok, we probably wanted to do something, but the station made it impossible. so in that sense, and if, if you can't say that he has some point which they scored in terms of your argument about the us and the u. k. one to one thing you want, i just need to be. so they would want me to have a little bit of a kind of demonstration that said a little skin missions here. and then they last you one process to be seen as to some extent, go back to having a bit of luck. you know, some of the minutes to me want to see how the western weapons would be form against the real and the me who actually should back. but i don't think the west

where did it with all due respect. and i mean, the us and other nato countries been pouring a lot of arms into your grain, and that's for one reason and one reason only, and that is to use them. and of course, and i say this all my guess here with the u. s. u k. were doing it is very low cost to them. they have no skin in the game except for they want everybody else to fight with and they want russia obviously to be isolated in europe. let me go to scott right now. it's got where do we go from this now because i keep pounding away, is it rushes demands have not been met. so this isn't far from over. and i'd like to point out to ever since 2014, russia is more or less sanction proof. ok, they birdie, they've already dealt with those issues almost completely across the board. here. a bullies don't like to be shown up in public. ok to be made, complete fools of, you know, planning the invasion, the date, the hour. what are we supposed to do? get on the roof with our, with binoculars. i mean,

they made complete buffoons out of themselves. they don't like to be shown up like that. go ahead, scott. i think we are in for a long haul and it's going to be very uncomfortable for all parties involved, especially the ukrainians are going to be stuck in the middle. as you pointed out, russia has prepared itself for the reality of sanctions. now we'll see, you know, because prior to this week we had the theory of massive sanctions. russia no sanction, they've been sanctioned by the west. the 1014 rush understands how its economy works. it understands what it's vulnerable points are, and i'm sure they've prepared for it. you know, who hasn't prepared for any of this europe in the united states, right? because of these sanctions go down the path. they look like europe is going to suffer egregiously, their economies will collapse. many of their, many of the european nations there currently are now pounding their chest about how tough they're going to be. are going to be crying in pain as their economies class

. and you know, who else is prepared? the american people when gas prices go through the roof, when inflation goes through the roof. when economy collapses, when their paycheck is worthless, they're certainly going to be asking pertinent questions like, what the heck are we doing? and at that point in time, i think you're going to see it in russia isn't going to budge. let me just make that point. i don't believe russia is going to budge a russia is going to stick to its principles. 6 years. arguments in the west is going to have to come to them. and that's what's ultimately going to happen now. while, while this game is being played about who can now wait home and believe me out, russia, can i wait the west? i, there is the question of ukraine, i can this conflict be confined to on yet lugens in terms of what's currently going? i don't believe so. i believe that a ukraine is it can't tolerate the zalinski can't survive as a politician and how the west is going to egg him on. because as you have rightly pointed out, that there are some people in the west who have romanticized,

the concept of ukrainian resistance. and you know, and they, and, and, and of course we've poured in the west of being over a $1000000000.00 of modern weaponry. i'm with the reality is ukrainian army isn't probably trained on these weapons. they haven't properly integrated them into their structure. and they like a bio doctrine, tactically, operationally, strategically, to, to use these weapons whose weapons are useless. yeah, so to the rental warehouse, and i'm afraid that. busy you guys are going to be punished by the west. i have got to have the job and i have the job here on this very depressing, but actually re with you on that. now we've, we've run out of time many thanks to my guests in delmar london. and in sydney, and thanks to our viewers for watching us here, r t. see you next time, remember crossed hubble with ah

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ah, ah, ah! the kremlin confirms that and yet scandal guns people's rifle banks have asked russia for, quote, help in repelling the ukrainian regimes military aggression. it comes after dumbass leaders say ukrainian force has have stepped up cross border shell fire. meanwhile, the head of the done yes. people's republic deny is western reports of russian troops entering the area was saying they could be brought in if the conflict escalates further. western powers heads. russia with a wave of sanctions. while moscow says soaring, energy prices are going to hurt consumers worldwide with.