the ah me, the me a lot welcome world report more than a century ago. the story and called hansel pronounced that history doctrines recognized. and he is, even though he was obsessed with finding the general law of the historic process. the conflict in and over ukraine came as a huge shock to most of us, but given the imperatives the patents oversize involved, is it really such a big surprise?

well, to discuss that, i'm now joined by somebody and the director general of the russian international affairs council. mister question, know who to talk to you again. thank you very much for your time. now you have all of the russian and made her attention for quite some time. did it ever occur to you that russia could take drastic action to protect what it seems to be its national intra? no, frankly, i should tell you that i was shocked. as menu was to see the special operation of the russian federation unfold and i thought that i rational cause benefit analysis would suggest that the risks to high end probably should steal sticker to diplomacy. also, as you recall, there was a chain of higher level visits. moscow by us and statesmen. and after each show

that we experts usually concluded that the city is it allowed to keep the door for negotiations. so open because this is a very important when, because many in russia, especially in the kremlin, i believe that there was use negotiations as essentially, you know, delaying or innovation tax. it only worth keeping the door open. if you actually hold that something, they'll go through that door. yeah, i agree, this is right there. there are such sentiments and maybe there are such sentiments and there are some leadership. but my date is that any military action is a failure of diploma. and definitely we can argue that the west was not sincere appropriate. it was sort of super critical. it was not ready to consider

some of our ashes proposals in a serious way. but still, i think that most of us are shocked. and if you recall that they romania statements in february and january ashley was not planned and then base mr. carson, i agree with you there. i also find the current events, indigestible, not only because of the costs of this operation to live lost in seeing sanctions, but per male primarily because of its human contact. the fact that russia has to use force against the crane. it needs a bit like app sacrificing, i think, and i think that for me which and given everything does he have sat and written about the russians in the ukrainians historically being one people i think he has to overstep major personnel,

historic and perhaps even the religious tablets you authorized those military strike on the premium infrastructure. do you believe him when he says that he has no other option? well, it seems that she's personal value system. there is something which constitutes an existential santa challenge to russia, not even to security as well to give it to it's mere survival. and this is something that can justify any actions which are supposed to protect the country. i think that the president who can should be now thinking about his legacy. and i think that ukraine is one of the feminine headaches that he has. but do you know my take is the given situation as it is right now, we should probably spend more time thinking about how we can resolve this

crutch. and frankly, i was a little bit encouraged by the outcomes of the 2nd round of slashing ukrainian negotiations. because at least they were able to getting on the show me there in corridors. we are still very far away from any kind of compromise. unfortunately, people are dock killed every day. but at least some of the gaps, the positions seem to be narrowed if they come up against the positions i narrowed, but i think it don't. we, on the humanitarian issues are they agreed on the strategic or tactical issues? i don't think they have any progress whatsoever. again, i, we will discuss how it could possibly be resolved, or at least in which direction besides would be moving in order to do that. but let's consider a little bit of the sort of settings for this conflict,

because he's addressed to the nation after authorizing to strike. while the russia was acting in self defense, in an effort to avoid the much bigger war, the one between russia and major and the one that could have involved in nuclear weapons. is that options? do we on the table at this point? no, i don't think so. i would say that at least in my judgement, and escalation is still possible. and i right now i look depends on the decisions made by the north atlantic lines, because definitely there is a strong pressure on nature to get involved in this conflict. in the more active wait for something more than just supply and weapons to ukraine and sharing intelligence information or with the, with the piano for it is true. infamous. that is a discussion about

a no fly zone over u k. and the need to tries to to have such a no fly zone. it will constitute danger of direct nato russia conflict. can these concept unfortunate dick and he's less colleen to the nuclear level. now, even before the beginning of this military, russia, a major, we're in disagreement about the nature of that disagreement. so most good was always bigger than simply a conflict of conflict between russia and ukraine or over them back from the west. it was more or less, you know, a little local disagreement. do you think which framework do you think is getting better at this point and do you think i need these horrendous advances?

the last couple of days? very tragic events. in any case, do you think they have a broad russia and makes it closer to how they evaluate reality here? well, i think that term right now it is difficult to, to talk about what's going on in terms of local conflict. because the west eas invoice to the west will continue to be involved. i can easily imagine, for instance, you know, volunteers or most notice no matter how you called them from western countries. so it gets them into a training logic, lunch of numbers. we can imagine that situation in the west might start more systematic military systems to ukraine, and definitely these contact will also have

a negative impact on other or somebody gentle issues that russian nature have. for instance, i can imagine small townships in the black sea or may be in the baltics in the far north. i think that these conflict might incentivize certain political forces in finland, tories we didn't consider getting closer to nate or even join nature. show my take is that one of the dangers of the situation that might lead to more comprehensive, multifaceted conflict between the russia and the west. and not just, you know, this military confrontation, but also confrontation between societies. because when i look at what is going on in the west, i feel that it is directed to not only the or not all the dawson did

a ship or the military, but it is directed to the russian society of the russian people that i think this is very dangerous because they ran a continuous loss then it would be very difficult to start rebuilding the relationship when the of these stage of the conference is already behind us. so it might have been a long term consequences in terms of the relations between the russian, the west, which neither side will profit from course. and there is a lot of speculation with regard to the timing of the piece of creation. but the one that i hear the most and last the last straw was the last of the munich security conference in the she allowed when the change in your cranes nuclear poacher essentially hinted at the possible acquisition of nuclear weapons. which

was, it was eyes at least rated even further by the lack of any review or any process from western capital. do you think the west would be okay with keep refreshing from with x rays or perhaps even how he is here to refresh it? well, just let me say that i find the statement of guessing the landscape in munich to be very inappropriate and unfortunate. i think that he shouldn't have done that. what of actions do with or rather the lack of any reaction to that? well, you know, it's talking about the experts community, of course there is, i think widespread opinion among the assets that you can is not in a position very now to get back to its alleged nuclear

stages that there is no experience in the soviet union. most of the components of nuclear weapons manufactured outside that is contradicted by the russian intelligence report. well, i think the intelligence is looking for, you know, even very small opportunities but, but, you know, just so we sure do exist. so it is a kind of forward look and approach. maybe not now, maybe 5 years from now. of course, ultimately ukraine is a country which has the technical capacity to produce nuclear weapons of just a matter of time. it's a matter of money. so matter of persistence and the ability to concentrate that needed to intellectual engineering capacity on this issue. i don't think the west will be okay with that with no, no, i think that's definitely

a very serious problems. not just for moscow, but for the in capitals because that might touch or produce a chain at x or for instance, ukraine might share its technologies with other ah, potential product features. now, historically, already, i mean, i don't, i don't, well we, we primarily know what they did. they shared on some of the ballistic technologies that they had. and i'm arguing that very exactly they, they argued that to some of the unexpected to break to see in the korean ballistic program. so originated in, okay, no, it's hard to prove this. so position, or there might have been some other sources of technology to cane is one of the options that, that's clear. so in terms of ballistic technologies, i think are you cane has a lot to offer in terms of nuclear technology. so it still has to cover

a lot of ground before odd. these option become so elastically available. however, you know, i, i'm deeply convinced to that nobody is interest just, nobody's interested to go in nuclear for that would definitely create major problems for mom, for the face. and i do hope that the kind of leadership understands the, the are the potential barrels of such a decision. oh, okay, well, mr. continental commercial break right now. we will be back in just a few moments. ah ah

ah, ah. what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have. it's crazy confrontation, let it be an arms race is often very dramatic. development only personally, i'm going to i don't see how that strategy will be successfully, very critical. i'm time to sit down and talk

ah welcome back to the partners, i'm the director general of the russian international affairs council, mr. cornel before the break. we were talking about the spectra of ukraine requiring and nuclear weapons and this whole new play issue has a very measurable, very concrete dimension. because during the cold war, it would have taken a missile from the soviet union around 30 minutes, a major american see. and i think i put in to some estimates that i have here in russia, if you create a right to be supplied by a major or american material,

we have been reduced to 5 or even 4 minutes. and that's perhaps a theoretical scenario. but what i would want to ask you about is what kind of a change policy change? pat produced would have made a more pushy in regards to russia or would it have made rational, compliant with regards to the west, a lifeline time is likely to be reduced. so we'll defer to russian strategic hello, todd, who doesn't jamaica osher? lie a mall now, a potential preemptive strategist, and i internal. this is likely to her being down the level of the overall european us strategic stability are dead. it is a said,

a dangerous option. it can be dealt with by dia, alerted of by yard, create in all some law or provisions for non deployment. let me give you just one example, which might explain what i mean. in 1990 un germany, they knew it a unified, there was a special agreement signed the so called 2 plus 4 agreement to 2 gentlemen is and for a country has said that to one in the 2nd world war and the decision was made to that the is the part of germany would join native because the united germany of was a part of nature. but to that, to know nathan was talked, you know, for him to. so i know you clear weapons. ah, but no military exercises. i will,

i will go to the territory fees german. so the former g d r is even know 32 years later, he's not coverage caused by the nater alliance infrastructure. or there are no american tools. the are, there are no euclid installations the are. so this is how it works. if you want to reach an agreement that would contain the need to infrastructure. when east, you should think about legally binding treaties that said specific limitations or the specific types of weapons, personnel, and activities or this directly. and as we saw are basically this is not inconceivable to reach such agreements, so that in my view should be applied to ukraine as well. you follow a goal is to contain all be at the several military infrastructure getting closer

to our board. the mr person, i think it would agree that russia has made an at times a lot of times to propose such talks and such agreements in relation to your grand and neutral status. to think trade when it comes to ne day for struck to military infrastructure on that's are true, but the using that didn't work out in putting words i believe that is what has allowed them to. busy russia authorizing the tribes on to the ukrainian territory. now, putting to put in this operation have 2 objectives. one is the military is ation. i think my law should have been taken care of by russia destroying much of your friends, military infrastructure, right? this point. what about the 2nd objective, the so called d enough vacation? how do you even interpreted? well, i think it's a more ambitious goal because it complies reset or the

ukrainian state for inter blinds. that's a k s to change its political system that yeah, or the system should be more inclusive, that it should de, incorporate some political forces which are marginalized right now if you could political life. i and it should alter side. so some of the i had to go national groups. i think that the goal would be extremely difficult to achieve. it is more difficult to them. are, for example, get into a neutral status of ukraine, which is very, very hard in itself right now, especially after what has happened. doug, definitely difficult to impose such a state just so you think when the crime and proposes gina suffocation as when it's been a tradition ever an objective. do you think it actually means that, or is it more, more or less of that sort of as a broad political agenda?

well, you know, we don't know, but i suspect that you should look at the red lights advanced by, by dashing federation. some lines which i really had, which i even purple like may to membership for me to for the, for ukraine. and there are other lines to be, show might look a little bit big, which can be negotiated. hopefully it can be where she to to and of course the modalities of their not vacation is probably one of these lines. this is something that has to become a metro throw that negotiations. hopefully, you know, we will be able to reach a compromise on how to distill miss between this purple lines and the pink lines. but i'm not in a position to judge about that. i think it would be

a hard job for both sides. now it's very dramatic to use it for by russia will undoubtedly cost it a lot. you wrote a lot about. 2 it in recent weeks, in reason days rather, not only in terms of its relations but the west and sanctions, but for future development it's relations with the outside world. but i think the calculation in moscow is that from now on political actors in the west may think twice or perhaps rice about the encroaching on the rushes interest. do you think markers actions as well as they may seem to western decision makers? do you think they may change the calculus in western capital when they consider policy? russia? well, of course, so i think that if you look at west village distance, i don't think that many of them predicted what would happen. and these actions demonstrate that there are some leadership committed to defend and ash,

a security interest. he was an all the means that the disposal and it's a very serious signal. but the rest it's yet to be skin called the rest will reply to that. but it's a very serious signal about russia intentions and the, the commitment of dash the ship. but she would she use military force on such a scale is shocking in the beginning. but it's not the 1st example in recent years . in fact, i have our very neighborhood, we saw a garbage on with tax that supportive turkey using limited military force to reclaim with historic characters. from armenia reasonable checks back. the kinetic force will make its return into the realm of geopolitics, after the relatively short period of trying to manage each other by preaching values. well, you know,

i guess the kinetic force has always been via the blue cover example of the u. s. so patient in iraq, 2 o 3 life, i exceptional, exceptional means a supreme there should not be compared. right? well, you know, frankly i have to tell you that the american actions are called so a lot of criticism in europe and countries like france and germany, belgium did not support this operation. but a beetle, i can remind you of variation in again his tongue, which was a 2 logical operation as well. i think the difference is that we have a, it's kaylee military operation or i think the central, if you know it's not even the wilkinson though, the balkans was also a shock for, for many tides innovation to central europe. and did suggest that kinetic force

can be used not just to in some remote areas. so the rolled, which you are important but still not perceived as so critically important for the european security. and today we see a conflict right in the middle of our own continent, which is clearly a new development. and i can only hope with all these turns will continue to live. we'll get back to the negotiation table and they can agree on the european architecture, which would provide to for an acceptable level of stability and the predictability in the european continent. i mean, you're one of my last questions i heard you say just recently that are far from being law practice represents a transition to any international now which is still in the process of text, hey, and just station i wonder if you could talk about the current source,

obviously you see them right now. how would it be different from the one that we haven't? well, it's a good question. of course, the picture is not clear today, but i think that we are entered in a very dangerous period in the international development of periods of a lot of volatility. a lot of for conflicts in various parts of the rural. unfortunately, we see trends to the globalization of the major decreases of direct foreign investment. problems with international travel was c protectionism by many parts of the world may be we will end up with some regionalism. so the form of global hands will continue, but not the global, but the regional level. at the same time,

the professional global problems is likely to increase or we are facing the world with deficits for major commodities and the socials, like food and shreds and trash, water energy. so i think that's what we really need to move or the global governance to a new level. well, that would be extremely difficult because the role is not united to, to split. and that's very difficult to get to the common denominator on such important issues as global governance. well, but on the other hand, all the major breaks the restores these happen to be worse. so let's hope that this one will not have to be that be in danger. and engender rather gets it changes and been great pleasure talking to you. thank you very much for being so gracious to be

a time and good luck. thank you. you know and thank you for watching hope to hear again next week one. well, the part of, ah with mm ah ah, well, oh oh oh oh,

a a oh rubin by dreamer shapes bankers are those with airs. sinks. we dare to ask.