the me i hello welcome to report more than a century ago. the story is called hansel pronounce that history doctrines recognized. and he is, even though he was obsessed with finding the general law of the historic process. the conflict in and over ukraine came as a huge shock to most of us, but given the imperatives and the patents of besides involved, is it really such a big surprise? well, to discuss that, i'm now joined by the director general of the russian international affairs council, mr. carson. good to talk to you again. thank you very much for your time. welcome. now, you have full day and russian and made her attention for quite some time. did it ever occur to you that russia,

who'd take drastic action to protect what it seems to be if national intra? no, frankly, i should tell you that i was shocked as menu was to see the special operation of the russian federation on hold. and i thought that i rational cause benefit analysis would suggest that the risks to high end probably should steal sticker to diplomacy. also, as you recall, there was a chain of higher level visits to moscow by us and statesmen. and after each show that we experts usually concluded that the city is it allowed to, to keep the door for negotiations. so open because this is a very important because many in russia, especially the crumbling,

believe that the what use negotiations as essentially, you know, a delaying or an asian tactic. it only worth keeping the door open if you actually hold that something that rolls through that door. yeah, i agree. this is such sentiments and maybe there are such sentiments, international leadership. but my date is that the, any military action is a failure of diploma. and definitely we can argue that the west was not sincere property. it was sort of cooper critical. it was not ready to consider some of our ash's proposals in a serious way. but still, i think that most of us are shocked. and i, if you recall, they romania statements in february and january that

was not planted in bass. mr. carson, i agree with you there. i also find the current events, indigestible, not only because of the cost of this operation live last seen sanctions, but per mill primarily because of its human contact. the fact that russia has to use force against the crane. it's denise a bit like apple sacrificing. i think and i think that for me which and given everything that he had sat and written about the russians in the ukrainians historically being one people. i think he has to over stop major personnel historic and perhaps even the religious tablets you authorized those military strike on the premium infrastructure. do you believe him when he says that he had no other option? well, it seems that she's personal value system. there is something which constitutes an

existential santa challenge to russia, not even to its security, but to smear survival. and this is something that can justify any actions which are supposed to protect the country. i think that the president who can should be now thinking about his legacy. and i think that ukraine is one of the permanent headaches that he has. but do you know my take is the given situation as it is right now, we should probably spend more time thinking about how we can resolve this cart. and frankly, i was a little bit encouraged by the outcome. so the 2nd round of fashion training negotiations, because at least they were able to agree on your tear and corridors, were still very far away from any kind of compromise. unfortunately,

people out doc killed every day, but at least some of the gaps in the positions seem to be narrow. if they start from the positions i narrowed, but i think it's only on the humanitarian issues. are they agreed on the strategic or tactical issues? i don't have any progress, whatever can i? we will discuss it how it could possibly be resolved, or at least in which direction decides would be moving in order to do that. but let's consider a little bit of the, the set of settings for this conflict because you address to the nation after authorizing to strike. while the russell was acting in self defense in an effort to avert a much bigger war. the one between russia and major and the one that could have involved in nuclear weapons. is that options? do we on the table at this point?

no, i don't think so. i would say that at least in my judgement, and escalation is still possible. and right now i love depends on the decisions made by the most atlantic aligns because definitely there is a strong pressure on need to, to get involved in this conflict in the more active way for something more than just supplying for weapons to ukraine and sharing intelligence information or with the, with the authorities. for instance, there is a discussion about a no fly zone over u k. and you need to tries to, to have such a no fly zone. it will constitute danger of direct nato russia conflict. can these constant unfortunate dick and usually

escalate to the nuclear level? now, even before the beginning of this military, russia, a major, we're in disagreement about the nature of that disagreement for most good was always bigger than play accomplish that also conflict between russia and ukraine, or i called them back to the west. it was more or less, you know, a little disagreement. do you think which framework do you think is getting it better at this point and do you think i have these hernandez, the last couple of days? very tragic events. in any case, do you think they have a broad rush and make a closer to how they evaluate reality here? well, i think the term bear right now, it is difficult to to talk about what's going on in terms of local conflict.

because the west eas invoice to the west will continue to be involved. i can easily imagine, for instance, you know, volunteers or most notice no matter how you call them from investment countries. so it gets them into a training logic, lunch of numbers. we can imagine the situation in the west might start more systematic military systems to ukraine and definitely discounted to below. also negative impact on other or somebody gentle issues that russia may have. for instance, i can imagine small towns in the black sea or maybe in the baltics in the far north,

i think this conflict might incentivize certain political forces in finland, tory sweden to consider getting closer to nate or even join nature. show my take is that one of the dangers of the situation that might lead to more comprehensive, multifaceted conflict between nation and the west. and not just, you know, this military confrontation, but also confrontation between societies. because when i look at what is going on in the west, i feel that it is directed to not only the or not all their dawson did a ship, or they're actually military. but it is directed to the russian society of the rational people that i think this is really dangerous because they trans continuous loss. then it would be very difficult to start rebuilding the relationship

when the are of these stage of the conflict she's already behind us. so it might have been a long term consequences in terms of the relations between the rush and the west ridge, neither side to profit from course. and there's a lot of speculation with regard to the timing of peroration. but the one that i care the most most the last straw was the lamp, the at the munich security conference in which he allowed would be change in your cranes. nuclear posture essentially hinted at the possible acquisition of nuclear weapons, which was, it was eyes at least rated even further by the lack of any review or any process from western capital. do you think the west would be okay with keith? refreshing. some new x rays, or perhaps even how he if he,

if to refresh it. well, just let me say that i find the statement of guessing the landscape in munich to be very inappropriate and unfortunate. i think that he shouldn't have done that. what of actions do with or rather the lack of any reaction to that? well, you know, it's talking about the expert community. of course, there is, i think widespread opinion among the assets that you can is not in a position right now to get back to its launched nuclear stages. that there is no experience in the soviet union. most of the components of nuclear weapons manufactured outside that is contradicted by the russian intelligence report. well, i think the intelligence is looking for,

you know, even very small opportunities, but, you know, just really do exist. so it is a kind of forward look and approach. maybe not now, maybe 5 years from now, but of course ultimately ukraine is a country which has the technical capacity to produce nuclear weapons of just a matter of time. it's a matter of money so matter of persistence and the ability to concentrate that needed to intellectual engineering capacity on this issue. i don't think that would be okay with that with no, no, i think that's definitely a very serious problem. it's not just for moscow, but for the in capitals because that might touch or produce a change x. for instance, ukraine might share its technologies with other ah, potential products a already i think i don't, i don't. well, we will primarily know what they did. they shared on some of the ballistic

technologies that they had to and i'm arguing or in exactly they, they argued that to some of the unexpected to break to see in the korean ballistic program. so originated in u. k. no, it's hard to prove this. so position, or there might have been some other sources of technology, but you cane is one of the options that that's clear. so in terms of ballistic technology is i think the ukraine has a lot to offer. and in terms of nuclear technology, so it still has to cover a lot of ground before on these option become so they are least declare available. however, you know, i, i'm deeply convinced to that nobody is interest just, nobody's interested to go in nuclear. sure. that would definitely create major problems for non,

for the face. and i do hope that the kind of leadership understands the, the are the potential barrels of such a decision. okay, well, mr. cardinal, we have a commercial break right now. we will be back in just a few moments. ah good is your media reflection of reality? in the world transformed what will make you feel safe? isolation, community? are you going the right way or are you being that

with what is true? what is in the world corrupted? you need to descend a join us in the depth or remain in the shallows. ah, welcome back to report to somebody in the director general of the russian international affairs council, mr. cornel before the break, we were talking about. the spectra of ukraine requiring in nuclear weapons and this whole new play issue has a very measurable, very concrete time. during the cold war, it would have taken

a bass miss out from the soviet union around 30 minutes. so he's a major american c. and i think according to some estimates that i have here in russia, if you're going to acquire its own, or if it's right to be supplied by some major or american material, we have been reduced to 5 or even 4 minutes. and that's perhaps a theoretical scenario. but what i would want to ask you about is, what kind of a change policy change that have produced? would have made a more pushy in regards to russia or would it have made rational compliant with regards to the west? if indeed i live line time is likely to be reduced. so that will defect josh and strategic lab.

hello, todd, who doesn't jamaica osher lie more on now, a potential preemptive or strategist. and i, in turn, this is likely to her being down the level of the overall european us strategic stability are dead. it is a said, a dangerous option. it can be dealt with by dia, underwritten of by yard create in all some law or provisions for non deployment. let me give you just one example, which might explain what i mean in 1990. when a german year, they knew it a unified, there was a special agreement signed the so called 2 plus 4 agreement to 2 german is and for

a country has said that to run in the 2nd world war. and the decision was made to that the, it part of germany would join native because the united germany of was a part of nature. but to that, to know nathan was talked, you know, for him to. so i know you clear weapons. ah, no military exercises. i will, i will go to the territories german. so the former g d r is even now 32 years later. it's not coverage caused by the nater alliance infrastructure. or there are no american tools. the or there are no euclid installations. the, so this is how it works. if you want to reach an agreement that would contain the need to infrastructure. when east, you should think about legally binding treaties that food said specific

limitations or specific types of weapons, personnel, and activities or this directory. and as we saw or basically this is not inconceivable to reach such agreements so that in my view should be applied to ukraine as well. you follow a goal is to contain bee at the stereo military infrastructure getting closer to our board. the mr person, i think you would agree that russia has made an attempt to last, each time to propose such talks and such agreements in relation to your brain and neutral status to think straight when it comes to going for struck to military infrastructure on that's are true but using that didn't work out in putting words i believe that is what has allowed them to. busy russia authorizing the tribes on to the ukrainian territory. now, putting to put in this operation has 2 objectives. one is the militarization. i

think my law should have been taken care of by russia destroying much of your friends, military infrastructure, right? this point. what about the 2nd objective? so hold up vacation. how do you even interpreted? well, i think it's a far more ambitious goal because it complies reset or the ukrainian state for inter blinds that gain s to change its political system. that the system should be more inclusive, that it should de, incorporate some political forces which are marginalized right now. if you create your political life and it should alter side. so some of the had to come national is cope's. i think that the goal would be extremely difficult to achieve. it is more difficult to them. now, for example, get into a neutral status of your brain, which is very, very hard in itself right now,

especially after what has happened. doug, definitely difficult to impose such a state just so you think when the crumbling proposal is dina publication. as when it states tradition as an objective, do you think it actually means that or is it more, more or less of that sort of as a broad political agenda? well, you know, we don't know, but i suspect that you should look at the red lights advanced by, by dashing federation some lines which i really had, which i even purple. like all, nate, a membership for me to for the for you came and there are other lines to be show might look a little bit big, which can be negotiated. hopefully, it can be pushy to to, and of course the modalities of their not vacation is probably one of these lines.

this is something that has to become a metro throw the negotiations. hopefully, you know, we will be able to reach a compromise on how to distill miss between this purple lines and the pink lines. but i'm not in a position to judge about that. i think it would be a hard job for both sides. now it's very dramatic to use it for by russia will undoubtedly cost it a lot. you wrote a lot about. 2 it in recent weeks isn't days. rather, i don't mean it's relations with the west and sanctions, but also future development. it's relations with the outside world. but i think the calculation in moscow is that from now on political actors in the west may think twice or perhaps rice about the encroaching on the rushes interests. do you think there's actions as despicable as they may seem to western decision makers?

do you think they may change the calculus in western capital when they consider policy? russia? well of course, so i think that if you look at the bull leticia and i don't think that many of them predicted what would happen and these actions demonstrate that there are some leadership committed to defend him, or she secured the interest he was an all the means that the disposal and it's a very serious signal, but the rest it's up to biscuit called the rest will reply to that. but it's a very serious signal about russia intentions and the, the commitment of dash the ship. but she said she uses military force on such a scale is shocking in the beginning, but it's not the 1st example in recent years. in fact, i think in our very neighborhood, we saw a garbage with tax that supportive turkey using limited military force to reclaim

some historic character from armenia reasonable objects back the kinetic force will make its return to the reality of geopolitics. after these relatively short period of trying to manage each other by preaching values. well, you know, i guess the kinetic force has always been via a blue cover example at the u. s. so patient in iraq, 2 or 3 lives. i exceptional, exceptional means a supreme there should not be compared. right. well, you know, frankly, i have to tell you that the american actions are called so a lot of criticism in europe and countries like france and germany, belgium did not support this operation. but a beetle,

i can remind you of your patient in there, get his tongue, which was a 2 logical operation as well. i think the difference is that we have a scalar military operation there. i think the central europe, it's not even the wilkinson though. the balkans was also a short for, for many of the tides innovation, the center of europe and did suggest that kinetic force can be used more just to in some remote areas of the rolled, which you are important but still are not perceived as so critically important. so for the european security, and today we see a conflict to right in the middle of our own continent, which is clearly a new development. and i can only hope with these turns will continue to we will get back to the negotiation table and they can agree on the european architecture which would provide to for an acceptable level of stability in the conduct ability

in the european continent. i mean, you're one of my last questions i heard you say just recently that are far from being law practice represents a transition to any international now which is still in the process of text me and just station i wonder if you could talk about the current source, obviously you can actually see them right now. how would it be different from the one that we have a moment? well, it's a big question. of course, the picture is not clear today, but i think that we're entering a very dangerous period in the international development of periods of a lot of all a to let you know a lot of for conflicts in various parts of the rural. unfortunately, we see trans to the globalization of the senior major

decreases of direct foreign investment. broadness with international travel was c protectionism by many parts of the world may be we will end up with some regionalism. so the former global trans will continue but not the global, but the regional level. at the same time, depression, global problems is likely to increase or we are facing the world with deficits. the also major commodities and essentials like food and shreds and trash, water energy. so i think that's what we really need to move the global governance to a new level. well, that would be extremely difficult to because the world is not united to split. and that's very difficult to get to the common denominator on such important issues as

global governance. well, but on the other hand, all day meet your brakes. so if these happen to be war, so let's hope that this one will not have to be that be in danger, engender rather than changes. i haven't been great pleasure talking to you. thank you very much for being so gracious to be a time and good luck. thank you, you know, and thank you for watching hope to hear again next week on the well, the party. ah, in

order driven by dream shaped are those with there's things we dare to ask ah

the .