ah ah ah ah hello and welcome to cross stock where all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle . the law of unintended consequences is in play and in a very big way, the west attempt to seriously damage the russian economy to sanctions is very risky and dangerous. those most enthusiastic the sanction are beginning to understand the same sanctions will hurt their own economies and citizens ah, cross sucking sanctions. i'm joined by my guess jim rogers and singapore. he's an

international investor in author in london. we have mich firestick. he is an investor in author of the book planet, pansy and in los angeles we crossed i. e. and he is a strategic planning consultant, a private equity advisor and independent. he cannot make analysts our job in cross hoc rules and effect. that means you can jump in any time you want. i always appreciate jim, let me go to you 1st. here is the biden administration attempting to sanction or secondary sanction, half the world economy, because that's what it looks like to me. go ahead with the politicians all over the world and bureaucrats love sanctions either or i have written about it in broadcast about it. they really don't work other than maybe for a short period of time because the few people i know of. no, you have any cases where sanctions have worked. ok, that's a very good susan, who quick answer from you mid to the same question to you because they that this really is a, you know, we have to put it all into context. i mean, russia is

a member of the g 20, at least still, and you know, the, it's being sanctioned and it's something of an economy this size. it's never been done before. this isn't a ran. it's not panama, it's not honduras. it's russia. is this going to work? go ahead, mich. well, i think we've got to examine all the points here. i mean, this is a multi polar world, and a lot of people still believe it's a unipolar world. so there are long term consequences for every action. and you know, the 1st couple things we need to think about free speech and due process and rule of law are paramount to any democratic society. and i things have changed so drastically in the past 2 years and things are moving so quickly. it's difficult to see what's going on sanctions and secondary sanctions, as jim rightly said, i don't see where they've ever worked before. except now we have a form of 3rd party coercion trying to regulate all global transactions. this is playing fast and loose with due process. in the rule of law, we already have inflation because of the green new deal through the back door and

net 0 that's pushed oil prices up to 100 percent from november, 2022 before the conflict in the in february. so they are already up to 100 percent, they can go much higher. and i think what's happened is this is become counterproductive because what you've got now is you've got russia, china, iran, india, brazil, saudi arabia, you a, he and africa on one side. and there's pole, massive polarization going on, and the west is trying to coordinate their team together. so i think cooler heads need to prevail. i think that there, there is no need to have a war. this could have been a big compromise in advance. where we got you today. it's concerning. pot pie the same thing to you. i mean that, again, that they, this global grasp is quite a amazing here. again, historically sanctions don't work, or least they don't work at for very long. because economy suggests consumers

adjust as well. but i mean, it, we take a country like germany, and i agree with mit, cherry, and i mean, everyone's getting their camp organized. but i mean, if you're totally, if you're significantly dependent on outside energy as germany is on russia, i mean, that's almost like turning off the switch. i mean, this is, this is a difficult to grasp the magnitude of this go ahead, bye. yeah, the west is engaging in a fist fight where the eurasian blocks keyword block were just fighting back with i quito or judo. namely, using the force of the opponent against the opponent, meaning the east has done its homework. the blow back from these sanctions can significantly harm non sanction financial entities. and the global derivative space is dangerously complex enough as it is to where financial press certainly isn't gonna explore viable risks preferring. they're just going to want to do a wait and see stance. copy in order to just prevent panic or we don't do that here

. no one knows the size of exposure in off the books, euro dollar markets. so if one of the parties is made a liquid due to these sanctions, it could cause exposed banks to fail, restrictions piled on russian banks would block counter parties from meeting derivatives, contract obligations under i sta agreements. and the trick then becomes how to close out highly leverage positions containing just under no indefinite open a risks. these are forbidden issues to be discussed in financial press. western firms could lose control over close our valuations for terminated transactions. after 2014, the, my don and, and crimea and everything. the international derivatives body gave sanctions, specific language designed to minimize disruptions. but counter parties haven't even worked them under their contracts. i don't know if it's laziness or they have other risks that they're trying to alleviate, but you know it's heads up. now. liquidity is deteriorating, and sanctions kick in on 7 russian banks this saturday. so trading out of positions

with much longer maturities will not be easy. i sent there something systemic approaching. okay, well that i want to jam jump and go ahead. i just want to say, you know, the russians have also impose sanctions. i were talking like that only the west. no, but the russians have also enclosed sanctions. they're not gonna work either. this academic studies would show i haven't read them, but i read about them. academic studies show the sanctions do not work. holla, jason's life for p r for publicity. i said love we did it, we did it. we could do a week later. everybody's forgotten about it, including the sanctions and the market always finds a way to get around. thanks match. do you agree with that? yeah, well there's always way around sanctions. i agree, but this time i think we've got a bigger problem and i mention is years ago, back in 2014. i think, 1st of all, you can never taper a ponzi scheme and we've never gotten through the 2008 credit crisis. now. we just

have new crisis is to wallpaper over the lar jess and the printing of trillions and trillions of dollars that the the world has become a wash too much money and they're trying to assign the blame in 2019 in december, somebody asked me i did an interview and they wanted to know, i thought the most significant coming event would be in the coming decade. and i said, the u. s. dollar will lose its reserve status. i think that's on the cards now a lot sooner than anybody thinks. because what we have is an unprecedented food energy and scarcity crisis right now. and the problem with the group of, of, of countries now russia, iran, and china is the oil prices, which are already trading at $100.00. $16.00 right now in the us of pushed energy prices to the point of affordability for most americans, that price can be tripled or even higher. should iran decided to close the strait

of hor moves, and this is also something that people need to look about. these unintended consequences, it could be a result of these sanctions because we started with the currency war and then we moved into a trade war situation. and the bad result of that could be a hot word. we're nobody's a winner. and that's why we need people to de escalate, deescalate is what we really need the escalation. and it seems to me that we've had a lot of escalation going on in know the escalation. yeah. well i, i, i think again it's just hot heads and they're ideologically possessed that are pushing this here. hi. i mean, this is eric, i a catastrophic, a place that we're at here. but you know what? i'm listening to all 3 of you. and i have to because of my job, watch a lot of cable tv. no one is saying what you 3 are saying. why go ahead pi? because it's, it's somewhat, both the gym and mich reference. it's

a confidence game, a confidence trick that's decades old. that was ratcheted up 51 years ago after nixon took us off the gold standard, which is essentially a global default. ah, but you know, they've been and reinventing had reinventing the confidence trick. and it's hit a wall now the collateral risk and a systemic risk issues are vastly yeah, they're too large to be even hinted at. so most press is just saying, well, let's wait and see what happens. like high inflation already existed pre february 24th. okay. and on collateralized trades raised funding and credit valuation adjustments for banks spiking hedging costs due to soaring spreads on russia. linked assets. this in turn, strains, liquidity, people don't understand like that. institutions are far worse off than they advertise dismissing libel or a few years ago as a swap, reference rate doesn't help with funding risk transfer either. so if russia stops

exporting energy to europe, for instance, than european corporate already under cost squeezes from inflation, are going to face credit crunches. if for some say, when russia defaults on a $150000000000.00, a sovereign debt, then we're talking lehman brothers and even 1914 level systemic risks. russian doesn't want to default, i mean it's not their intent, but western banks may force it to begging questions over whether in others, a deeper sense of control demolition and asset calling going on here. okay, but the jim that cannot be good for western financial institution, seeing russia default go ahead. jayman singapore. well, i don't really want to go back to what we said before you were with, you know, the america shooting itself in the foot as far as us dollars been for the us dollar is the world reserve currency and medium of exchange with the world's memory. shame is supposed to be neutral. you can use it for anything, a girlfriend by a bow do anything you want. that's what it's supposed to be. but now the us is

changing the rules. and they're making it, you know, we don't like you. we put sanctions, you cannot use us dollars. well that's making a lot of people say, well, wait a minute, even friends. so when we got to find something else is already moved by china, russia, india, brazil, per around, and other countries to come up with an alternative. this is only a seller, i don't like saying, i'm going to america. but this is accelerating. the move away from the us dollar as worlds medium of exchange match. we got to 40 seconds before we go to the break. talk about the dollar. go ahead mich. well, i think the u. s. dollar has as jimmy's right. it's shot itself in the foot, but i think that's been a long time coming, coming with the money printing. and you've got, you know, as i explained in my book that the entire government debt situation globally is the biggest ponzi. ready ready steve, ever seen in the planet ponzi, it's so much debt that it can never be repaid. and you can, you can never taper upon the scheme in. this one's the biggest of all. so,

you know, when that happens, people lose faith in the currency. but i think what will happen is will be a currency based a currency that's based on exchangeable commodities and that will. ready the winner up going forward. ok, well that we're going to go to a short break gentleman and after bachelor break, we'll continue our discussion on the sanctions war affecting just about everybody in the world state with artie. ah ah ah, is your media a reflection of reality in the world transformed what will make you feel safe?

isolation community? are you going the right way or are you being that some with what is true? what is great? in the world corrupted, you need to descend, who join us in the depths will remain in the shallows. i oh, you're in. yeah. how many times when i was a recall with world is with you her is with you. i'm with

full credit. that's a good from beach to still easy to the station or but in the board with

with welcome back to cross talk. we're all things considered. i'm peter really well to remind you we're discussing sanctions. ah okay, let's go back to los angeles. i want to see, but i mean, all 3 of you guys are really, really smart, this even understand what's going on here. i mean, if we see a fragmentation of the financial system, are we going to see like, i'm very defined trading blocks now, i mean, you know, we've, i've lamented globalization ever since they invented the term, okay. it is this kind of an anti globalization process where we're going to have a, your ration block, we're going to have the u. s. flaw. is this what we're going, go ahead perhaps that en route to something

a little bit more integrated via a multi polar rather than unipolar even bipolar world of a just i wanted to just go back to mac and jim were referencing the dollar issue. i just wanted to pose the question elect to what extent is this 48 year old petro dollar reserve recycling arrangement, enabling liquidity fixes against systemic risk. you think about 19971998 long term capital management, 2000 in a financial crisis. as steep as they were, there were means of being able to bounce back, perhaps because of the innards of what the dollar and petra dollar a standard has been. i asked, because putin, as you all know, just ask for gas payments and rubles, and, and, you know, an act that is actually not prohibited by the sanctions is completely allowed. and it's being very quietly considered across europe. and yet it's clearly aimed at tweaking. dollar gemini, possibly triggering insolvency contagion out west while providing an energy

currency alternative. that's also tied to like a $132000000000.00 worth of russian gold stored in russia, which are like 21 percent of the russian reserves. so it's, it's, they're playing go, the west is playing checkers. but i sense that everyone knows that there's a shelf life to the petro dollar standard, and the, to the dollars reserve currency standard. and the east is just being a very shrewd and trying to replace it while minimizing damage to itself. and so it's such an excellent question. what is the future of the petro dollar? i mean, we've been, we've gotten so wedded to it. are we seeing the, it's final gasps. go ahead. peter, just recently the chinese said to other people, saudi arabia, listen, we're going to pay you en route and red mending. so in the end, the saudi is said, okay, we'll take red men be, you know, the sort of been a great friend of the americans with lots and lots of dollars euro dollars. petro

ramos, all kinds of dollars. but now the chinese have said to this, saw these america great friend lestrade and read mandy. i did say they say, well, what is the implications of that gym? again, it's more and more the, it's the seller ready to move away from the u. s. dollar. but yeah, i'm american theater. i don't like thing does, but i can see that america making a great mistake with this sanctions to hit people again and it's hurting us. it's going to be my children more than it's going to hurt america. mention the implications of this for europe are really immense because i would go far as to say and no one in the program has to agree with me. but i will just say what i think. i mean, this whole gambit with ukraine is basically directly to regime change in russia. but i would posit this will see regime change in europe all across europe. if it

continues go ahead, mich, well, look, i don't know about that. i know that that's what they like, but you know, this regime change stuff never worked before either, but it worked out worse than the sanctions have worked out. because look at our examples that we had in either in iraq where it didn't work out in libya, that didn't work out either. but as far as what's going on now, it's a boring effect and i couldn't agree more. this is a busted flush. it's a bad trade, one of the biggest problems that we have peter throughout europe in the united states now is we've got massive censorship. and we've got a crazy social media in the past 2 years that put so much propaganda and dis, information in misinformation out. ready you've got a fake fat checking, and you're only allowed to say certain things. if you say the wrong things, your social credit score goes to 0 and your, you know, your shun from polite society. all kinds of all actions have consequences. we live in a world now we're all, you know,

the sovereign immunity. and jane jim can attest to this because he's an old timer like me. he can attest to the sovereign immunity of the central bank that is sacrosanct that no longer exists. so when you get rid of due process and the rule of law, what do we have left? how are we trading things? how do you have confidence in the system that does that? and i agree with jimmy. i'm look, i'm american to and for me it's difficult to understand why they're doing this because it seems like they're just shooting themselves in the foot. and it's not working out some kind of compromise arrangement, because this is not the russia of 950. and i think that this is a big underestimate by a lot of the people on the other side of this. and if it's a blah bluff, it's a busted flush. i'm telling you and it needs a rethink. okay, j. i say you're just wanting to jump in, go ahead, real quick. go ahead. you know, we're talking about sanctions. i get to repeat what i said before. the market always finds a way around sanctions. i remember 40 years ago i met a guy. what are you doing? i'm a thanks buster. i said what?

and what great glee. he explained to me whenever somebody puts on sanctions in his gov. yes. and the other figure out a way to the banks, and i mean, they've never worked there good publicity for a few days, but in the, in the market and find a way, i mean, all peter, i travel around the world, many job you know, and i cannot tell you how many times i've run into sanctions busters and black markets and everything else. the market a smarter than bureaucrats, gets per share. but typically, government officials, okay, pi, where is this all going? i mean, i, obviously, i live in russia. we're beginning to feel the effects of some of the sanctions here . i don't know if it's the beginning of something or if it, this is what's really what we're going to have to deal with. we can live without mcdonalds and netflix. i can tell you that here, but i mean, why should the, why should russia really engage in that with the west anymore? i mean, they tried for 30 years up to the cold war. it's a busted plush,

is already been said on this program. that's why i know that the future is to the east. i mean rushes given up on europe. i mean, where is it going? is that regardless of the west, meaning the trans atlantic a community collectively, certainly the private banks and central banks will need to resort to printing money vastly at up vastly higher rate then again, pre february 24th. and it were already experiencing to real rate of inflation and the double digit share in the us. but in response to potential cut off of energy, a counter steps taken from the east currency war. there will be just, you know, and despite raising of interest rates, there will need to be a variant of a quantitative easing re introduced that will just further tweak the dollar. and i

think collectively fia currencies because the east is figured out how to go back on to a credible a gold standard. but oil on gold, as i wrote a paper 7 years ago, a prescriptive paper sensually, is it linking the most valuable commodities on the planet and to the re conception of what money is? ok, so came, what does that mean for western economies? okay. i mean, as we've heard on this program twice already, that the east is figuring it out, you know, and having a credible currency. again, it goes back to the petro dollar, and the financial ization of the economy. what is the future of the western economies? peter, you're not old enough to remember with the pounds. so the last in status of the world, reserve currency and england went down the tubes even when bankrupt, literally bankrupt in 1976. that's around the world, had many reserve currency throughout history. none of lasted more than a 100150 years. now the u. s. is forcing itself us off the us dollar

standard and the world's going to have to find something else. and when you lose that st. as peter, as england found out, you lose a huge, a huge amount of prosperity, privileges, et cetera. it doesn't happen over night. but anybody who is young today is going to see dar consequences just as the english last many privileges and status after they started losing out steps that let's go to mitch in london. you want to react to what jim was saying there. go ahead mich. yeah. as i was just saying that unfortunately, we've got a perfect storm set up because we're already about to hit head into a recession. you've got the federal reserve, it still doing unprecedented quantitative easing by buying a $120000000000.00 worth of assets a month. so in that stops the, the parties over when that stops, and i think the stock market's gonna collapse,

and i think every asset class is gonna correct. so the people who are postured appropriately going into this next decline will be the ones who are very successful and those are over leveraged are going to get slaughter and how bad it gets depends upon the availability of energy in food stock. i see this can get very, very bad very quickly because inflation in the u. s. right now is around 17 percent . when you, when you use the 1980s basic right to calculate it to him, he wanted to jump in real quick. before i go to pi, i want to say this is, this is a show about sanction. these sanctions rushes out, americans are pushing more and more asian countries together. get out a globe theater. you push 3bb, wouldn't be people together. that's going to have a powerful effect on all of us down the road. and that's one of the things that the sanctions are doing. another reason sanction should be done away with, always throughout history. you know, pi,

it's go back to los angeles here as so again kind of where is this going here? i mean, from what all of you said here there's, i see no silver lining whatsoever. i mean, i, i don't know what asset you said we all i be owning right now because it looks like there's no escape. go ahead in los angeles because this was not just a rush to judgment or to action on february 24th. and because there your asian block and partners had done their homework well enough in advance dotting every i crossing every t and, you know, anticipating every thing thrown at them fiscally. and otherwise, there will be, i reiterate a re, it's already happening, ricocheting effect back against western institutions. and a neoconservatives in charge of policy between london, washington, new york, brussels and elsewhere. and that is the foremost a pressure point and point of danger is because they're rabid farrell and very

unpredictable. they want everyone to know that and they're willing to pull out all the stops in order to try. i lie with i got, we have 15 seconds. this sounds like a form of suicide to me, am i wrong? there's always an opportunity where wherever there is anything going on, there's an opportunity. you've got to look for the silver lining in every dark cloud. people need to be optimistic, but you need to have cooler heads, prevail in a situation like we have today, the escalation, deescalate, we don't, we don't have cooler heads. they're not prevailing. that's for sure. here. that's all the time we have for this very pessimistic edition of the program. many thanks them i guess in singapore, london, and in los angeles. and thanks to our viewers for watching us here are t c an ex family member process rules. ah

oh when i was shopping wrong when i just don't hold any well yes to safe out because the advocate and engagement it was the trail. when so many find themselves well the part we choose to look so common ground. oh is your media a reflection of reality in the world transformed what will make you feel safe? isolation, whole community?

are you going the right way or are you being led? direct? what is true? what is faith? in the world corrupted, you need to descend a join us in the depths or remain in the shallows. ah, and north atlantic alliance, recognizance aircraft wolf shipped, cruising close to russia's borders, have become commonplace. along with military hardware redeployment and large scale exercises. nato has also developed its offensive capability near the russian borders

every year, a russian backed resolution is submitted to the un against the glorification of not system the outcome is always the same. the u. s. votes against it, and in recent years with ukrainian backing with typically the u. abstains. ah, but we've most countries voting in favor. the document is accepted, but it's only advisory nita clinic writer and history professor with the american university in washington summarizes the usa official position. mm. united states says that.