there is this desire to, you know, malign and china to associate it with a conflict in some sense. why is the us trying to impose this on, on china and this? i think there are, there are 3 possibilities. the 1st is that the u. s. i, the fears that sanctions regime won't work without china's compliance or 2nd. it wants to expose china to even greater inflationary pressures. if china does comply and they're like damage china's economy. and 3rd, if china doesn't comply, then again, it wants to add this to discourse and it's already got in place of maligning china, essentially blaming the war on china in some way. and so now that the u. s. has the stabilize to grain and fed this conflict. the us expects china needed to abandon their strategic self interest for fuels. eric and neither prime minister modi nor president. she can ping or fools. hey, time to check in again and moments with peter and the cross talk team. then on back

in 30 with all your global news updates. stay close. aah! blue ah ah ah

ah ah ah ah ah. hello and welcome to cross stock. were all things considered? i'm peter lavelle. the law of unintended consequences is in play and in a very big way the west attempt to seriously damage the russian economy to sanctions is very risky and dangerous. those most enthusiastic the sanction are beginning to understand the same sanctions will hurt their own economies and citizens. i

cross sucking sanctions. i'm joined by my guest, jim rogers and singapore. he's an international investor in author in london. we have mich 5 saying he is an investor in author of the book planet, pansy and in los angeles, we crossed up i. e. and he is a strategic planning consultant, a private equity advisor and independent. he cannot make analysts hi jalen cross hoc rules and effect, that means you can jump in any time you want. i always appreciate jim, let me go to you 1st. here is the biden administration attempting to sanction our secondary sanction, half the world economy, because that's what it looks like to me. go ahead with the politicians all over the world and bureaucrats love sanctions. either. i have written about it in broadcast about it. they really don't work other than maybe for a short period of time against a few people. i know of. no, you have in the case that was sanctions have worked. ok. that's a very good citizen who quick answer from you mid to the same question to you

because they, that this really is a, you know, we have to put it all into context. i mean, russia is a member of the g 20, at least still. and you know, it's being sanctioned and it's something of an economy this size. it's never been done before. this isn't a ran, it's not panama, it's not honduras. it's russia is it's going to work. go ahead mich. busy i think we've got to examine all the points here. i mean, this is a multi polar world, and a lot of people still believe it's a unipolar world. so there are long term consequences for every action. and you know, the 1st couple things we need to think about free speech and due process and rule of law are paramount to any democratic society. and i things have changed so drastically in the past 2 years and things are moving so quickly. it's difficult to see what's going on sanctions and secondary sanctions, as jim rightly said, i don't see where they've ever worked before. except now we have a form of 3rd party coercion trying to regulate all global transactions. this is

playing fast and loose the due process. in the rule of law, we already have inflation because of the green new deal through the back door and net 0. it's pushed oil prices up to 100 percent from november, 2022 before the conflict in the in february. so they are already up to 100 percent and they can go much higher. and i think what's happened is this is become counterproductive because what you've got now is you've got russia, china, iran, india, brazil, saudi arabia, you a, he and africa on one side. and there's pole, massive polarization going on. and the west is trying to coordinate their team together. so i think cooler heads need to prevail. i think that there there's no need to have a war. this could have been a big compromise in advance where we got you today. that's concerning. pot pie, the same thing to you. i mean that, again, that they, this global grasp is quite

a amazing here. again, historically, sanctions don't work, or least they don't work. and for very long because economy suggests consumers are just as well. but i mean, if we take a country like germany and i agree with mit, cherry, and i mean, everyone's getting their tamp organized. but i mean, if you're totally, if you're significantly dependent on outside energy as germany is on russia, i mean, that's almost like turning off the switch. i mean, this is, this is a difficult to grasp the magnitude of this go ahead pie. yeah, the west is engaging in a fist fight where the eurasian block key word block. we're just fighting back with a kito or judo, namely using the force of the opponent against the opponent. meaning the east has done its homework. the blow back from the sanctions can significantly harm non sanction financial entities. and the global derivative space is dangerously complex enough as it is to where financial press certainly isn't gonna explore viable risks preferring. they're just going to want to do

a wait and see stance. copy in order to just prevent panic. we don't do that here. no one knows the size of exposure in off the books, euro dollar markets. so if one of the parties is made a liquid due to these sanctions, it could cause exposed banks to fail, restrictions piled on russian banks would block counter parties from meeting derivatives, contract obligations under i sta agreements. and the trick then becomes how to close at highly leverage positions containing just under no indefinite open a risks. these are forbidden issues to be discussed in financial press. western firms could lose control over close our valuations for terminated transactions. after 2014, the, my don and, and crimea and everything. the international derivatives body gave sanctions, specific language designed to minimize disruptions. but counter parties haven't even worked them under their contracts. i don't know if it's laziness or they have

other risks that they're trying to alleviate, but you know it's heads up. now. liquidity is deteriorating, and sanctions kick in on 7 russian banks this saturday. so trading out of positions with much longer maturities will not be easy. i sent there something systemic approaching. okay, well that i want to jam jump and go ahead. i was going to say, you know, the russians are also imposed sanctions. i were talking like only the west. no, but the russians have also enclosed sanctions. they're not going to work either. this, their academic studies would show i haven't read them, but i read about them. academic studies would show the sanctions do not were hollow tissues like them for, for p r for publicity. i said love we did it, we did it. we'd get it done a week later. everybody's forgotten about it, including the sanctions and the market always finds a way to get around sanctions, mich, the agree with that? yeah. well, there's always way around sanctions. i agree, but this time i think we've got a bigger problem. and i mentioned this years ago,

back in 2014, i think 1st of all, you can never taper a ponzi scheme and we've never gotten through the 2008 credit crisis. now. we just have new crisis is to wall paper over the large s and the printing of trillions and trillions of dollars that the the world has become a wash too much money and they're trying to assign the blame in 2019 in december, somebody asked me, i did an interview and they wanted to know, i thought the most significant coming event would be in the coming decade. and i said, the u. s. dollar will lose its reserve status. i think that's on the cards now a lot sooner than anybody thinks, because what we have is an unprecedented food energy and scarcity crisis right now . and the problem with the group of, of, of countries now russia, iran, and china is the oil prices, which are already trading at $116.00 right now in the us of pushed energy prices to

the point of affordability for most americans, that price can be tripled or even higher, should iran decided to close the strait of her ruse. and this is also something that people need to look about these unintended consequences that could be a result of these sanctions because we started with the currency war. and then we moved into a trade war situation, and the bad result of that could be a hot word. we're nobody's a winner. and that's why we need people to de escalate. de escalate is what we really need the escalation. and it seems to me that we've had a lot of escalation going on in know the escalation. yeah. well i, i, i think again, it's as hot heads in their ideologically possessed that are pushing this here. i mean, i mean this is eric, i a catastrophic, a place that we're at here. but, you know, when i'm listening to all 3 of you and i have to, because of my job, watch a lot of cable tv. no one is saying what you 3 are saying. why go ahead pi?

because it's, it's somewhat both the gym and mich reference it's a confidence game, a confidence trick that's decades old. that was ratcheted up 51 years ago after nixon took us off. the gold standard, which is essentially a global default. ah, but you know, they've been and reinventing had reinventing the confidence trick. and it's hit a wall now the collateral risk and a systemic risk issues are vastly. yeah, they're too large to be even hinted at. so most press is just saying, well, let's wait and see what happens. like high inflation already existed pre february 24th. okay. and on collateralized trades raised funding and credit valuation adjustments for banks spiking hedging costs due to soaring spreads on russia, linked assets. this in turn, strains, liquidity, people don't understand like that. institutions are far worse off than they

advertise dismissing libel or a few years ago as a swap, reference rate doesn't help with funding risk transfer either. so if russia stops exporting energy to europe, for instance, than european corporate already under ca, squeezes from inflation are going to face credit crunches. if for some say, when russia defaults on a $150000000000.00, a sovereign debt, then we're talking lehman brothers and even 1914 level systemic risks. russian doesn't want to default, i mean, it's not their intent. but western banks may force it to begging questions over whether in others, a deeper sense of control demolition and asset calling going on here. okay, but the jim that cannot be good for western financial institution seeing russia default go ahead. jammin singapore. well, from the outer really want to go back to what we said before of a with, you know, the america shooting itself in the put as far as us dollars been for the us dollar is the world reserve currency and medium of exchange with the world's memory shame is supposed to be neutral. you can use it for anything. you go, friend by a bow,

do anything you want. that's what it supposed to be, but now the u. s. is changing the rows and they're making it. you know, if we don't like you, we put sizes on you, you cannot use us dollars. well that's making a lot of people say, well, wait a, me even friends i went in, we got to find something else. is already moved by china, russia, india, brazil per ran, and other countries to come up with an alternative. this is only excel. i don't like saying here i'm going america. but this is accelerating. the move away from the us dollar. as world medium of exchange match, we got 40 seconds before we go to the break. talk about the dollar. go ahead mich. go. i think the u. s. dollar has as jimmy's right. it's shot itself in the foot, but i think that's been a long time coming with coming with the money printing and you've got, you know, as i explained, my. ready book that the entire government debt situation globally is the biggest ponzi scheme. ready we've ever seen in its planet,

pansy. it's so much debt that it can never be repaid. and you can, you can never taper upon the scheme in. this one's the biggest of all. so you know, when that happens, people lose faith in the currency. but i think what will happen is will be a currency. ready based a currency that's based on exchangeable commodities that will. ready the winner up going forward. ok, well in that we're going to go to a short break gentleman and after batch of break, we'll continue our discussion on the sanctions war affecting just about everybody in the world state with artie. and oh, seemed wrong when all proofs just don't hold any you won't have to shave

out disdain because the attitude and engagement equals the trail. when so many find themselves worlds of horn, we choose to look for common ground. a christy i it isn't with the one, you know, maybe a leg down with a

with a feller on your clothes with welcome to cross top. were all things considered? i'm peter beltran, manager, were discussing sanctions. ah, okay, let's go back to los angeles. i want to see, but i mean, all 3 of you guys are really, really smart and i want to see hundreds than what's going on here. i mean, we see

a fragmentation of the financial system. are we going to see like a very defined trading blocks? now? i mean, you know, we've, i've lamented globalization ever since they embedded the term. okay? it is this kind of an anti globalization process where we're gonna have your ration block. we're going to have the us, why is this what we're going? go ahead perhaps that en route to something a little bit more integrated via a multi polar rather than unipolar even bipolar world. of a just i wanted to just go back to mitch and jim were referencing the dollar issue . i just wanted to pose the question elect to what extent is this 48 year old petro dollar reserve recycling arrangement, enabling liquidity fixes against systemic risks. you think about 19971998 long term capital management, 2000 in a financial crisis. as steep as they were, there were means of being able to bounce back, perhaps because of the innards of what the dollar and petra dollar

a standard has been. i asked, because putin, as you all know, just ask for gas payments and rubles, and, and, you know, an act that is actually not prohibited by the sanctions is completely loud. and it's being very quietly considered across europe. and yet it's clearly aimed at tweaking. dollar gemini, possibly triggering insolvency contagion out west while providing an energy currency alternative. that's also tied to like a $132000000000.00 worth of russian gold stored in russia, which are like 21 percent of the russian reserves. so it's, it's, they're playing go, the west is playing checkers. but i sense that everyone knows that there's a shelf life to the petro dollar standard. and the, to the dollars reserve currency standard. and the east is just being a very shrewd and trying to replace it while minimizing damage to itself. and so it's such an excellent question. what is the future of the petro dollar? i mean, we've, we've gotten so wedded to it. are we seeing the it's final gases?

go ahead peter, just recently the chinese said to other people, saudi arabia, listen. we're going to pay you en route and red mending. so in the end, the saudi is said, okay, we'll take red men be sorry to have been a great friend of the american, with lots and lots of dollars euro dollars. petro ramos, all kinds of dollars. but now the chinese have said to this, saw these america great friend lestrade and read mandy. i didn't say they say well, what is the implications of that gym? again, it's more and more, some of the seller rated move away from the u. s. daughter. but yeah, i'm american peter, i don't like thing does, but i can see that america making a great mistake with this sanctions to hit people and it's hurting us. it's going to be and my children more than it's going to hurt america. mention in the

implications of this for europe are really immense because i would go far as to say and no one of the program has to agree with me. but i will just say what i think. i mean, this whole gambit with ukraine is basically directly to regime change in russia. but i would posit this will see regime change in europe all across europe. if it continues go ahead, mich, well, look, i don't know about that. i know that that's what they'd like, but you know, this regime change stuff never worked before either, but it worked out worse than the sanctions have worked out. because look at our examples that we had in either in iraq where it didn't work out in libya, that didn't work out either. but as far as what's going on now, it's boring a fact and i couldn't agree more. this is a busted flush. it's a bad trade, one of the biggest problems that we have peter throughout europe in the united states now is we've got massive censorship. and we've got a crazy social media in the past 2 years that put so much propaganda and dis,

information in misinformation out. ready you've got a fake fact checking, and you're only allowed to say certain things. if you say the wrong things, your social credit score goes to 0 and your, you know, your shun from polite society. all kinds of all actions have consequences. we live in a world now we're all, you know, the sovereign immunity. and jane jim can attest to this because he's an old timer like me. he can attest to the sovereign immunity of the central bank that is sacrosanct that no longer exists. so when you get rid of due process and the rule of law, what do we have left? how are we trading things? how do you have confidence in the system that does that? and i agree with jimmy. i'm look, i'm american to and for me it's difficult to understand why they're doing this because it seems like they're just shooting themselves in the foot. and it's not working out some kind of compromise arrangement because this is not the russia of 1950. and i think that this is a big underestimate by

a lot of the people on the other side of this. and if it's a blah bluff, it's a busted flush. i'm telling you and it needs a rethink. okay, j. i say you're just wanting to jump in, go ahead real quick. go ahead. you know, we're talking about sanctions. i get to repeat what i said before the market always finds a way around sanctions. i remember 40 years ago i met a guy and that's that. what do you do? he said i'm a sanctions buster but said what? and with great glee, he explained to me whenever somebody puts on sanctions, he and his guys get together and figure out a way to wash the sanctions. i mean, they've never worked a good publicity for a few days, but in the, in the market finds a way, i mean, all peter, i have travelled around the world many job, you know, and i cannot tell you how many times i've run into sanctions busters. and black markets and everything else, the market is smarter than bureaucrats get 1st year, particularly government officials. ok. potpie, where is this all going? i mean,

i obviously i live in russia. we're beginning to feel the effects of some of the sanctions here. i don't know if it's the beginning of something or if i do it, this is what's really what we're gonna have to deal with. we can live without mcdonald's and netflix. yeah, i can tell you that here. but i mean, why should the, why should russia really engage in that with the west? any more? i mean, they, they tried for 30 years after the cold war it's, it's a busted flush is already been set on this program. that's why i know that the future is to the east. i mean, rush has given up on europe. i mean, where is it going? is that regardless of the west, meaning the trans atlantic community, collectively, certainly the private banks and central banks will need to resort to printing money vastly at, at a vastly higher rate. then again, pre february 24th. and it were already experiencing to real rate of inflation and the double digits are in the us. but in response to potential cut off

of energy. and you know, the counter steps taken from the east currency war. there will be just, you know, and despite raising of interest rates, there will need to be a variant of a quantitative easing reintroduced. that will just further tweak the dollar. and i think collectively fia currencies because the east has figured out how to go back on to a credible a gold standard. but oil on gold is i wrote a paper 7 years ago, a prescriptive paper, essentially. is it linking the most valuable commodities on the planet and to the re conception of what money is? ok, so came, what does that mean for western economies? okay. i mean, as we've heard on this program twice already, that the east is figuring it out, you know, and having a credible currency. again, it goes back to the petro dollar, and the financial ization of the economy. what is the future of the western

economies? peter, you're not old enough to remember with a pound, so the loss did status as the world reserve currency and england went down. the tubes even went bankrupt, literally bankrupt in 1976. that's around the world, had many reserve currency throughout history. none of lasted more than a 100150 years. now the u. s. is forcing itself us off the us dollar standard and the world's going to have to find something else. and when you lose that st. as theater, as england found out, you lose a huge, a huge amount of prosperity, privileges, et cetera. it doesn't happen over night. but anybody who is young today is going to see dar consequences just as the english love many privileges and status after they started losing out steps that let's go to mitch in london. you want to react to what jim was saying there. go ahead,

mitch. yeah. as i was just saying that unfortunately, we've got a perfect storm set up because we're already about to hit head into a recession. you've got the federal reserve, but still doing unprecedented quantitative easing by buying a $120000000000.00 worth of assets a month. so when that stops the, the party's over when that stops, and i think the stock market's gonna collapse, and i think every asset class is gonna correct. so the people who are postured appropriately going into this next decline will be the ones who are very successful and those are over leveraged are going to get slaughter and how bad it gets depends upon the availability of energy in food stock. i see this can get very, very bad very quickly because inflation in the u. s. right now is around 17 percent . when you, when you use the 1980s basic right to calculate it to him, he wanted to jump in real quick. before i go to pi, i want to say this is, this is a show about sanction. these sanctions rushes and americans are pushing more and

more asian countries together. get out a globe. peter, you push 3bb would be people together. that's going to have a powerful effect on all of us down the road. and that's one of the things that the sanctions are doing. another reason sanction should be done away with, always throughout history. you know, pi, it's go back to los angeles here as so again kind of where is this going here? i mean, from what all of you said here there's, i see no silver lining whatsoever. i mean, i, i don't know what asset you said we all i be owning right now because it looks like there's no escape. go ahead in los angeles a because this was not just a rush to judgment or to action on february 24th. and because the eurasian block and partners had done their homework well enough in advance dotting every i crossing every t a anticipating every thing thrown at them fiscally. and otherwise there will

be, i reiterate a rick and it's already happening, ricocheting effect back against western institutions. and a neoconservatives in charge of policy between london, washington, new york, brussels and elsewhere. ah, that is the foremost. oh, pressure point and point of danger is because they're rabid, feral, and very unpredictable. they want everyone to know that. and they're willing to pull out all the stops in, in order to try. i lie with i guy, we have 15 seconds. this sounds like a form of suicide. to me. am i wrong? there's always an opportunity where wherever there is anything going on, there's an opportunity. you've got to look for the silver lining in every dark cloud. people need to be optimistic, but you need to have cooler heads, prevail in a situation like we have today. yes, glitching deescalate, we don't, we don't have cooler heads. they're not prevailing. that's for sure here, but it's all the time we have for this very pessimistic edition of the program.

many thanks them i guess in singapore, london and in los angeles. and thanks to our viewers for watching us here are t c and exxon. remember, prostate rules with only one main thing is important for knox ism internationally speaking to that is that nations perhaps allowed to do anything. all the mazda races. the reason us had germany is so dangerous is it deny the sovereignty of the country wars business and business is good and that is the reality of what we're facing, which is fashion.

with report said, merge of russian force is taking control of murray. you both that he hold off for a month of intensive fighting with creamy enforced. this continues. they're all coming up in the program. european leaders object to moscow's the amount to pay for their energy supplies and mission currency. as the rubel begins to claw back value loss, then maybe the ukranian prices. and also what country is the main instigator of this crisis? everyone knows china luscious america's methods in the ukraine conflict, claiming it was washington who originally instigated and inflame the situation. it comes as beijing ready for trade talks with russia by dealing pressure and.