ah, ah, nice to come to the russian state will never be tied up. i'm gonna need northland scheme development. i'm not getting calls all set up for a week within the 55 when. okay, so mine is 2000 speedy. when else calls with, we will van in the european union, the kremlin. yup. machines the state on crush up to date and support r t sport that even our video agency, roughly all band to on youtube with

me. ah, i nelson as well. yeah. wow. div easy. wow. finance us. oh, yeah. oh yeah. one slide. yes. south. yeah. thrashing out there is actually bethany got carson boys now watch them the for me at that. a bull up i pete on the is emma? yeah. full video from shelby. she's kim's room. she thought, did you say the why fi ella eddie bill and that's my thought or jane in that again the audio fortune pretty up in the be a lot about this with

oh, is your media a reflection of reality in the world transformed what will make you feel safer, high selection for community. are you going the right way? or are you being led to somewhere? which direction? what is true? what is great? in the world corrupted, you need to descend a join us in the depths or remain in the

shallows. ah ah . with hello and welcome to cross hawk, where all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle as russia's military operation in ukraine interest. the 2nd month. a popular media parlor game has come into existence, was call it who is winning and who is losing. sadly, there isn't much time or interest in how to end the conflict. in the meantime, ukraine's fate is being decided, ah, cross talking the conflict in ukraine. i'm joined by my guess. like why petro in kingston is a. we're

a political science at the university of rhode island in delmar. we have scott ritter, he's a former intelligence officer in the united nations weapons inspector, and in brussels. we cross a gilbert doctor arrow. he is an independent political analyst and historian or a gentleman cross cycles. in fact, that means you can jump any time you want. and i always appreciate it's got a nickel. i 1st nick, like, i mean it's, it's very interesting watching the who's winning and who's losing a game on cable tv. a plethora of articles always in the, in the main broad sheets. but there seems to be preciously little interest and how to end the conflict. but doesn't mean to say that things aren't going on. there's, there's a, there's, there's a of a format in bare room though when it's damn ball. i'm covering it very weak watching it very, very carefully here. but it doesn't seem to get a whole lot of play, and all it takes is secretaries they blink and say, well, we're not, we don't think the russians are serious and then there's no discussion any further . how do you see this here? because there seems to be many elements in the media and in the political classes in the west that actually want to see this war to continue go ahead, nikolai. oh,

well, there are those who are you. it's in america's geo strategic interest to prolong this war to turn it into ah, a russian. her 2nd again is dan or vietnam or something like that. all of these views overlook the devastation that's occurring in ukraine itself and the damage also that is being done to the russian economy and to the economies of europe or in general. and i think that there is indeed, probably some strategy involved vibe and keeps alluding to it in confusing and mysterious ways about a new world order or hopefully the parameters of this new world order will become clearer to us mere mortals soon. yeah, well i think that the war all daughter is going to be some very thick lines. ok of

separation. scott, how do you see this? i mean, you know something about the military. i'm not interested in who is winning and who's losing. i'm interested in seeing the conflict resolved with su debts as possible on both sides here. but i, it really does disturb me, but the kind of glee that you know, you throw in the graphics and that, you know, there's a counter offensive and all that. the way i love my sources, tell me and there's, there's actually very little resistance from the army ukrainian army itself. it's these neo nazi battalions that are fighting to the death. go ahead, scott. i don't know. i mean, it's clear to me that there's a significant, a military operation taking place in ukraine that involves heavy fighting on both sides. okay, so what i can say is this, the united states has said that there have been multiple efforts by senior military officials here in the united states to reach out and contact their counterparts in

russia. but that the phones aren't being answered, which should tell you everything you need to know about the gravitas that should be attached to this ongoing western information warfare operation being waged by both western mainstream media and the united states and nato. ah, you know, propaganda is propaganda if it's targeted it right now it appears a western propaganda is targeted for it to 3 target, one being of the, the, the, the, the civilians here at home to generate outraged. because our outrage will then you'll political resolve on the part of american politicians who will pressure their european counterparts to engage in very um, a stringent economic sanctions and a, and in the revitalization of nato. and then there's also the, the, the,

the effort to bolster ukrainian spirits to let and believe them, maybe they're doing better than they can. the 3rd one of course, is to influence a russian domestic political opinion in an effort to create pressure from within russia. on the russian government to alter their behavior in ukraine. ah, the, the only one that counts as far as rushes concerned is the 3rd one. and one i, i don't believe it's, there is a massive a scholarship. it's scott, it's, it's not working. all 3 of the points you mentioned are utter failures here. you know, gilbert, one of the things i find very curious in looking at these a negotiation of formats. it's all about up the future of ukraine's external security relations. what is absent is that the internal makeup of ukraine, and i think nobody really wants to go there. but typically in ukraine and the americans and the british and other might members of nato don't want to go there

either. because what's happening, the more the these talk sir, are, are the clock is run out. the more and i'm just speaking more my it myself. i see a partition going on here. and if we don't get this conflict resolved sooner rather than later than it will be a de facto partition gilbert, your thoughts, i think it will be resolved later, rather than sooner. okay. later being in a time perspective of 2 or 3 weeks, the russians have achieved very important territorial janes in the territories, which they were, they concentrated their efforts and where they had the, i don't, you ask militia, joined them from the north. and they came up from the south, they surrounded marvel. they took essentially the whole of the series of literal, that is, that has great strategic importance and great economic importance for rush. however, this for ends that will rain remain forever with russia. now they are turning

around and addressing the issue, which with which they started the war, which is to secure the donuts and the guns k o blasts, as they were called republics, as their call today. and members, cotton, a constituent of elements of the russian feder, as a surely will be in a matter of months. now what was missing here is to retort the, the le ganske republic. now a car has under its control, 93 percent of the territory that was once the guns homeless that assayed status before the war began in 2014. unfortunately, don ask, is our dinners in a different situation and don't ask the the powers to forty's control only 50 percent of the land that was once the or ballast of done in the against and the, the obstacle there are what,

what prevent them from achieving similar success to guns. is that most of the 100000? 0, soldiers that ukraine concentrated on good. yep. river. it's initial plans to overrun these republics. and they would have done that. had the russians not intervened. that forces still there. and what we're about to see is the russians redirecting their firepower and coming up from the rear, striking at those $100000.00 ukrainian soldiers. so going over there, this is the, the 2nd stage. what we heard, we heard earlier that the 1st stage of the operation is over. let me go back to a nikolai, i mean, looking at, you know, the failure to or a president biden, to europe. i mean, that, that was a sight to see. but you know, a people say they were gaffs, but i think he told the truth, although every single time this is not even about ukraine, it's about regime change in russia. that's what i glean from what he had to say

gilbert, i'm sorry, nick nick like go ahead. well he just. busy so laid bare his thinking inadvertently. i mean i, we all followed cob biden's career for many years. he's actually co offered a, an article on, on our relations with russia, russia future. and it's all been very clear from the beginning that he is no friend of russia. and it's therefore not surprising that his professions of understanding and care for the russian people fallen on deaf ears. um, so not nothing surprising there. the question, but nichol, i mean if you have like victoria new and she was in the obama administration, i mean she is really the god mother of the my don losing crimea losing the don bass

and now she's back. ok. and i'm always hardy that victoria knew, and when she gets her clause into ukraine, it just gets smaller and smaller. not really bacteria biden. it's about a mindset in the foreign policy elite, nikolai. yes, and that mindset is not going away. and i think it's obviously one of the things that eventually drove put in to this kind of reaction which is not to justify the reaction i, i am one of those who continue to hope that there could have been some sort of negotiation. i think that prior to this invasion, a rush actually had the diplomatic upper hand, by arguing, pointing to the fact that the western intelligence agencies were predicting invasion. but they're not. it happened now i think the shoes on the a little bit on the other foot, and it's making the case for russia being an aggressor,

unfortunately that much easier in the west. and that's another hurdle to overcome meeting and that's a good point. but scott and scott, russia, it was always the aggressor, irrespective of what it does, a bit invaded or didn't invade it. i mean, i agree with nikolai on a rhetorical level, but i mean that this is a godsend for people like victoria new. and because they have so much more work to do, go ahead. we have one minute before we go to the right. go ahead. scott. i don't see grocery curious. victoria holland. i don't think russia cure. i don't think they care about biden, or anybody. russia is going to do a rush is going to do to resolve its own security problems in there. they're in the ukraine right now doing just that. and i think ukraine will unfold on a time table. it's dictated by moscow, by brussels, not by washington, dc. now, by cnn. well, it's at, that's very interesting because when you are the way i've looked at the coverage of it, i mean, and the way the media leads and political leads, this is their story. it really has its very divorced from the events going on on

the ground. and i, i tend to agree with got, you know, mosque i was going to do what it's going to do when it's done and saying it's going to say it's done on that point. gentlemen, we're going to go to a short break about about short break. we'll continue our discussion on the conflict, then you crime, stay with our team. ah, ah ah .

ah, ah. just welcome at the cross stock. we're all things are considered on peter labelle. reminder, we're discussing the conflict in ukraine. ah, okay, let's go back to gilbert in brussels, gilbert. what kind of ukraine is going to come out of this? um, you know, we had the, the, the coup in 2014, the grand crimea voted to leave. ah, don bass separated itself from kev. we're looking at the, the military up ration. russia's military operation. now it will lose its access to the sea. most definitely, and there's nothing anyone can do about that. so what kind of ukraine is that are

going to be? it's going to be a rum state, you know, with deletion ideology and all of that. i mean is that something that you want? does anybody want that go ahead? gilbert run state might be a misnomer because we're speaking about the republics and don't boss and the territory to the south, but it's been conquered in the last 4 weeks fighting the, getting the russians control over the whole hazel c. literally. that's maybe 15 percent of the territory crane. there isn't a much greater percentage of the population before the war. so what we, what, what remains to be seen is whether there will be a genuine partition between the eastern part of the but remains of ukraine, which has a fairly high percentage of had before this war. high percentage of russian speakers and peoples identified themselves as russian,

as that's likely. and the western side of the upper which has a considerably higher percentage of people who consider themselves to be ukranian speakers. that remains possibility, but i think it's unlikely now who will take control of that depends on the weeks ahead. what will be the results of the russians declare from the beginning they wanted the notification and demilitarization. now that may be a nice objective negotiations, but i think it's a still more effective objective in action on the ground. the russians declared today that they had destroyed 90 percent of more of the cranium, military production. they, if they succeed in smashing the $100000.00 ukranian army, that is parked on the left bank on the west of the damper, then oh, they will effectively both to deny so fi and demilitarized ukraine,

whatever one wants to put in the pit down on a piece of paper the mr. zelinski will sign before he runs away or st. ok, we for he run. so he has an interesting way of putting in nichol i who's, who's going to determine the outcome of this a conflict here and what would be a fair outcome. ok, what make yourself a neutral observer? what would be fair at the end of the day? i want to keep our keep our viewers in mind with, you know, thinking about 8 years of war and the down bass which the west took no interest in whatsoever. you know, that is very, very important. the west doesn't recognize the cry and cry me a referendum, but the certainly the crimea ins do. so. we're at this stage here, what would be fair or is that impossible to answer? go ahead. i'm not sure that we can talk in terms of fairness. now that'll have to be determined over more than our lifetimes. i think, pending on interpretations. i'd like to say a few words, literally,

a single words about the kind of ukraine that we're going to see at the, or after military. the military actions are over. we will no doubt have a more nationalistic ukraine, a weaker ukraine, a more illiberal ukraine. we're already seeing the manifestations of this and the rest of more or less, every opposition figure in ukraine. and of course, a more resentful ukraine for this generation. at least quite willing what, where is it, how the an will that be resent when against the west as well? yes. yes, yes. and, and the best lesson i think that i, thoughtful, ukrainian elites can take out of this is to be more reliant on their own interests and think about their own interest. first as independent actors. well,

the you saying the quiet part out loud, because scott at that was going to be my question to do. who is the decision maker here? because, you know, if it's a lensky runs away, i mean, as he is he, a free agent is, does he have a, does he, a person that can actually make a decision in your opinion, scott? well, the russians certainly hope is because all of these finality is that a people expect out of this conflict, for instance, ukrainian recognition. the crimea is russia ukrainian recognition that the former august's of logan's contin yeske are now independent of ukraine. perhaps expanded to include a mario, poland, a, and in other areas around the age of literal on. this can only happen in a way that can be accepted by the west. if zalinski signs on to it, you know,

he has been elevated to a winston churchill like aerobic figure. and the west has articulated that it is up to him to dictate the terms of peace. so your zalinski of course has a lot of pressure. um he, if he surrenders too fast, he might get hung by the right wing nationalists if he drags this thing on the west does going to be a little bit more reticent about providing the, you know, military support that simply gets blown up or captured by the russian, so there's a balancing act, but at the end of the day, zalinski is the only authority in ukraine. they can provide legitimacy to a russian victory, and there will be a russian victory. so it's in russia's best interest, i believe, to keep zalinski empowered to keep him viable and to keep him alive. so that of the surrender. you can be eventually negotiate, nichol, i, you want to jump in there at a word, go ahead about russian victory. i agree every,

every thing on the law that we can see on the map and in the cards, points to a russian victory. partly because they've hardly deployed a sufficient. i mean, i don't one with the fish forces, but i mean they're there. they have fewer people there and they have much greater resources available to them to carry this thing out of to accessible conclusion. but the point is, and this happened at the end of the last negotiations in, in, in stumble. what if russia loses heart? what if the negotiating team actually is given orders to prepare, you know, some sort of agreement without fulfilling the military objectives and the political objectives stated, there could be a tremendous backlash as there was right after the end of the announcement, in

a stumble, that some sort of major progress had been made. this was not met well in russian society. yeah. i actually, when we did a program on that and i but again i what i thought it focused on external matters didn't talk about internal and that's what i've had where the real kind of odd because it was only half the story here. gilbert, let me kind of change gears here. what is the future of nato? because nato failed to keep the peace. and for all the propaganda that comes out of that organization, there is not a whole lot of unity, and i think it's only one to get worse here. i think nato and it's, it's dr to dr. russia out of europe forever. his actually come up empty handed gilbert. go ahead. well, keep the judgment on that really depends on who you're talking to. if you're speaking to people in western europe, laurel, so you know, there was never been so united and just look what we have undertaken. if you're

speaking to outside observers, like myself, i think you're, you're other analysts in that community. then a situation is very different. russia has taken a b. i mean, that nato has taken the beating, in terms of prestige, in terms of it's my ability as a alliance that can pretend that it can protect its members. the other states to consider themselves frontlines, things like the baltic, slaves like poland. i think they all love to take, take notice that united states is standing back and has offered only a mid to the material aid to ukraine. a lot of it, by the way, the equipment coming out of storage is not necessarily usable. but did i have states has in every way indicated it will not act up to help you craned? oh, keep its, its borders, keep its sovereignty and so forth. even to the extent in as far as i understand, united states has specifically said they will not stand as

a guarantor of ukrainian sovereignty under the terms of any peace. the agreement to the may be concluded. if i may just switch back a moment to the question of mr. so lensky, i'm not so sure. it's so simple. and that's for sure that his maintaining his position is in russia's russian interests. and not so sure, the concluding abuse treaty is in russia's interests really makes no difference. it is forced, that speaks you. and i think any european power who would like to go in again to ukraine, efforts over would be out of it's might. so yeah, cranes future, whether ratified by a peace tree not ratified by history, will be the same as regards to success, which are still against zelinski. he will be a very ugly personnel. and the real plug, cleanest of the kevin regime, will be clear and whoever succeed zalinski cholenski is an actor. zalinski has been fed all this lines by the best of ustr firms. as lensky is

a great information war, a deficit for russia. so if he's gone so much better, it's got the thing that i look at as i look at a lot of these negotiations of just is this being bluster because i tend to agree with what you said on this program. is that political facts on the ground will re determined the outcome here and you know, you can have all the talk you want. but at the end of the day, what did that stalin say? that a how many divisions does the pope have? go ahead. scott. no that's, that's absolutely true. um, you know, we are prisoners to the information we have right now of the west is very effective . it a flooding of the battlefield, so to speak in this information war with data of that at up projects. one image. russia has not been so effective encountering that, and i am again, i think that's because russia simply doesn't care. russia isn't involved in

information war rushes involved in real war. and um, you know, hopefully for the sake of russia, of that war is progressing along the lines that are acceptable to the political leadership in the military and the military can accomplish this. i do agree that if russia stopped short of trails to achieve effective denounce vacation and i will tell you this. if the next leader of ukraine is a prisoner to the far right is, is ugly. as the gentleman speaks up in russia lost his war because d nice vacation isn't just the physical destruction of a soft on bus and the other national battalions. de notification is the liquidation of the ideology of step arm band error that resides, and la vote no less. russia takes care of that. they haven't de modified anything. so i hope will j campaigns going to be broader and so that many people think having to have to fight that ideology in this century as well. who would have thought as

all the time? we have gentlemen many thanks my guest in kingston, delmar, and in brussels. and thanks to our viewers for watching us here, dorothy see you next time. remember crossed up rules ah ah, with a to pull you up with that you oh

oh i. 6 0 yes, matthew doesn't you needed to look to meet them with in the nice couple with lou lou said we to you what the why not the class that ash net yet new new zealand new. yet the cuckoo rule can you and you.