ah hi ah ah, ah. hello and welcome to cross stock were all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle as russia's military operation in ukraine interest the 2nd month, a popular dd, a parlor game has come into existence. let's call it who is winning and who is losing. sadly, there isn't much time or interest in how to end the conflict. in the meantime, ukraine's fate is being decided. i

was sucking the conflict in ukraine. i'm joined by my guest like why petro in kingston is a professor of political science at the university of rhode island in delmar. we have scott ritter, he's a former intelligence officer in the united nations weapons inspector and in brussels. we cross a gilbert doctorow. he is an independent political analyst and historian or a gentleman cross. hercules and the fact that means you can jump in any time you want. and i always appreciate it's got a nickel. i 1st neglect. i mean it's, it's very interesting watching b who's winning and who was losing a game on cable tv, a plethora of articles always in the, in the main broad sheets. but there seems to be preciously little interest and how to end the conflict. but doesn't mean to say that things aren't going on. there's a plan, there's, there's a of a format in bare rows though. when, if sam ball, i'm covering it very weak watching it very, very carefully here. but it doesn't seem to get a whole lot of play, and all it takes is a secondary se blank and say, well, we're not, we don't think the russians are serious and then there's no discussion any further . how do you see this here? because there seems to be many elements in the media and in the political classes

in the west that actually want to see this war to continue go ahead, nikolai. oh, well, there are those who are you. it's in america's geo strategic interest to prolong this war to turn it into, ah, a russian, her 2nd organic dan or vietnam or something like that. all of these views overlook the devastation that's occurring in ukraine itself and the damage also that is being done to the russian economy and to the economies of europe or in general. and i think that there is indeed, probably some strategy involved. biden keeps alluding to it in confusing and mysterious ways about a new world order, or hopefully the parameters of this new world order will become clearer to us mere

mortals soon. yeah, well i think that the war, oral daughter is going to be some very thick lines. ok of separation. scott, how do you see this? i mean, you know something about the military. i'm not interested in who is winning and who's losing. i'm interested in seeing the conflict resolved with as who deaths as possible on both sides here. but i, it really does disturb me, but the kind of glee that you know, you throw in the graphics and the, you know, there's a counter offensive and all that. the way i love my sources, tell me and there's, there's actually very little resistance from the army ukrainian army itself. it's these neo nazi battalions that are fighting to the death. go ahead, scott. i don't know. i mean, it's clear to me that there's a significant, a military operation taking place in ukraine that involves heavy fighting on both sides. okay, so what i can say is this, the united states has said that there have been multiple efforts by senior military

officials here in the united states to reach out and contact their counterparts in russia. but that the phones aren't being answered, which should tell you everything you need to know about a b, gravitas, that should be attached to this ongoing western information warfare operation being waged by both western mainstream media and the united states and nato. i'm, you know, propaganda is propaganda of if it's targeted it right now, it appears western propaganda is targeted for it to 3 target, one being of the, the, the, the, the civilians here at home to a generate outraged. because our outrage will then you'll political resolve on the part of american politicians who will pressure their european counterparts. do engage in very um, a stringent economic sanctions and,

and in the revitalization of nato. and then there's also the, the, the, the effort to bolster ukrainian spirits to let and believe them, maybe they're doing better than they can. the 3rd one of course, is to influence a russian domestic political opinion in an effort to create pressure from within russia. on the russian government to alter their behavior in ukraine. ok. the, the only one. the counts as far as rushes concerned is the 3rd one. and one i, i don't believe it's, there is a massive, a scar russia. it's scott, it's just not working. all 3 of the points you mentioned are utter failures here, you know, kilmer, one of the things i find very curious in looking at these a negotiation of formats. it's all about up the future of ukraine's external security relations. what is absent is that the internal makeup of ukraine,

and i think nobody really wants to go there. but typically in ukraine and the americans and the british and other might members of nato don't want to go there either. because what's happening, the more the these talk sir, are, are the clock is run out. the more and i'm just speaking more my it myself. i see a partition going on here. and if we don't get this conflict resolved sooner rather than later than it will be a de facto partition gilbert, your thoughts, i think it will be resolved later rather than sooner. ok, later being in a time perspective of 2 or 3 weeks, the russians have achieved very important territorial janes in the territories which they, where they concentrate their efforts. and where they had the only ask militia, joined them from the north. and they came up from the south, they surrounded more evil. they took essentially the whole of the series of literal,

that is, that has great strategic importance and great economic importance for rush. however, this warren's, that will rain remain forever with russia. now they are turning around and addressing the issue, which with which they started the war, which is to secure the don't ask, and the guns k o blasts as they were called republics as their call today. and members, cotton, a constituent of elements of the russian feder, as a surely will be in a matter of months. now what was missing here is to retort the, the, the, the ganske republic. now a car has under its control, 93 percent of the territory that was once the guns homeless. that is the same status before who the war began in 2014. unfortunately, don't ask is a good news in a different situation and don't ask the the powers to forty's control only 50 percent of the land that was once the or boost of done in other going ask and

the, the obstacle there are what, what prevented them from achieving similar success through guns. is that most of the $100000.00? 0, soldiers that ukraine concentrated on the yep. river. it initial plans to overrun these republics. and they would have done that, had the russians not intervened. that force is still there. and what we're about to see is the russians redirecting their fire power and coming up from the rear, striking at those $100000.00 ukrainian licensure. so going to like the, this is the, the 2nd stage where we heard we heard earlier that the 1st stage of the operation is over. let me go back to a nikolai, i mean, looking at, you know, the failure to or a president biden, to europe. i mean, that was a sight to see, but you know, a people say they were gaffs, but i think he told the truth,

although every single time this is not even about ukraine, it's about regime change in russia. that's what i gleaned from what he had to say gilbert, i'm sorry, nick nick, like go ahead. well, he just laid bare his thinking and inversions lay. i mean i, we've all followed biden's career for many years. he's actually co authored an article on, on relations with russia, russia's future. and it's all been very clear from the beginning that he is no friend of russia. and it's therefore not surprising that his professions of understanding and care for the russian people fall on on deaf ears. so not nothing surprising there. but nichol, i mean, you have like victoria new and she was in the obama administration. i mean,

she is really the godmother of the my don, losing crimea losing the don bass and now she's back. ok. and i've always harvey that victoria new. and when she gets her clause into ukraine, it just gets smaller and smaller. not really about joe biden. it's about a mindset and the foreign policy elite nikolai. yes, and that mindset is not going away. and i think it's obviously one of the things that eventually drove put in to this kind of reaction which is not to justify the reaction i, i am one of those who continue to hope that there could have been some sort of negotiation. i think that prior to this invasion, a rush actually had the diplomatic upper hand, by arguing, pointing to the fact that the western intelligence agencies were predicting

invasion. but that none that happened. now i think the shoes on the a little bit on the other foot, and it's making the case for russia being an aggressor, unfortunately that much easier in the west. and that's another hurdle to overcome meeting. and that's a good point. but scott and scott, russia was always the aggressor, irrespective of what it does have been invaded or didn't invade it. i mean, i agree with nikolai on a rhetorical level, but i mean, this is a godsend for people like victoria new. and because they have so much more work to do, go ahead. we have one minute before we go to the right. go ahead scott, i don't think russia cares victoria, and i don't think russia cure. i don't think they care about bind, or anybody. russia is going to do a rush is going to do to resolve its own security problems in there. they're in the ukraine right now doing just that. and i think ukraine will unfold on a time table. it's dictated by moscow not by brussels, not by washington. d. c, now by seeing in, well, it's at, that's very interesting because when you are the way i've looked at the coverage of

it, i mean, in the way the media leads and political leads. this is their story. it really has its very divorced from the events going on on the ground. and i, i tend to agree with scott. moscow is going to do what it's going to do when it's done. it's a, it's going to say it's done on that point general and we're going to go to a short break. and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on the conflict in ukraine. stay with ah ah, a for to stay up, inpatient with

becky, unless you want to do with it with that you for that reason yet did your part of all ok so yeah, i was

oh, is your media a reflection of reality in the world transformed what will make you feel safe, isolation, whole community. are you going the right way or are you being led to somewhere? direct. what is true? what is great? in the world corrupted, you need to descend join us in the depths or remain in the shallows. ah, welcome at the cross walk where all things are considered on peter la belt reminder were discussing the conflict in ukraine. ah

ok, let's go back to gilbert in brussels, gilbert. what kind of ukraine is going to come out of this? um, you know, we had the, the, the coo and 2014, the crimea voted to leave. ah, don, bow separated itself from kev. we're looking at the, the military operation, alga rushes, military operation. now it will lose its access to the see. ah, most definitely, and there's nothing anyone can do about that. so what kind of ukraine is there going to be is going to be a rum state, you know, with alisha ideology and all of that. i mean, it, is that something that he wants? does anybody want that go ahead? gilbert run state might be a misnomer because we're speaking about a republic cindy,

don't boss and the territory to the south, but it's been conquered in the last 4 weeks. fighting, getting the russians control over the whole unusual, etc literal. thus, maybe 15 percent of the territory crane and or isn't a much greater percentage of the population before the war. so, um, what we, what, what remains to be seen is whether there will be a genuine partition between the eastern part of the remains of ukraine, which has a fairly high percentage of are hand before the sport or high percentage of russian speakers and people who identified themselves as well as russian that's likely and to the western side of the upper which has a considerably higher percentage of the people who consider themselves to be ukrainian speakers. that remains the possibility, but i think it's an unlikely how who will take control of care that depends on the

weeks ahead and what will be the results of the russians declare from beginning they wanted the notification and demilitarization. now that may be a nice object of the negotiations, but i think it's a still more effective objective in action on the ground. the russians declare today that they have destroyed 90 percent of more of the ukrainian military production. they, if they succeed in smashing the $100000.00 ukranian army, that is parked on the left bank on the west of the damper, then uh they will effectively both to deny so fi and demilitarized ukraine, whatever one wants to put in the pit down on a piece of paper the mr. zalinski will sign before he runs away or is hanged. ok, we for he run. so he has an interesting way of putting and think like who's who is going to determine the outcome of this a conflict here and what would be a fair outcome? ok, make yourself a neutral observer?

what would be fair at the end of the day? i want to keep our keep our viewers in mind with, you know, thinking about 8 years of war and the dawn best, which the west took no interest in whatsoever. you know, that is very, very important. the west doesn't recognize the crowd a crimea referendum, but the certainly the crime ins do. so we're at this stage here. what would be fair or is that impossible to answer? go ahead. i'm not sure that we can talk in terms of fairness. now that will have to be determined over more than our lifetimes link, pending on interpretations. i'd like to say a few words literally, single words about the kind of ukraine that we're going to see at the, after military. the military actions are over. we will no doubt have a more nationalistic ukraine, a weaker your brain,

a more liberal ukraine. we're already seeing the manifestations of this and the arrest of more or less, every opposition figure in ukraine. and of course, a more resentful ukraine for this generation, at least. well, one of them will be resentment against the west as well. yes. yes, yes. and, and the best lesson i think that but full ukrainian elite can take out of this is to be more reliant on their own interest and think about their own interest. first as independent actors. well, you saying the quiet part out loud? because scott out that was going to be my question to do. who is the decision maker here? because you know, if it's landscape runs away, i mean, is he, is he pre agent is, does he, does he a person that can actually make a decision in your opinion, scott?

well, the russian certainly hope is because all of these finality is that a people expect out of this conflict, for instance, ukrainian recognition. the crimea is russia ukrainian recognition that the former obligates of the gods contin yeske are now independent of ukraine. perhaps expanded to include a mario, poland, a, and in other areas around the age of literal on. this can only happen in a, in a way that in be accepted by the west. if zalinski signs on to it, you know, he has been elevated to a winston churchill like aerobic figure. and the west has articulated that it is up to him to dictate the terms of peace. so your zalinski of course has a lot of pressure. um he if he surrenders too fast, he might get hung by the right wing nationalists if he drags this thing on the west

is going to be a little bit more reticent about provide enough, you know, military support that simply gets blown up or captured by the russians, so there's a balancing act, but at the end of the day, zelinski is the only authority in ukraine. they can provide legitimacy to a russian victory, and there will be a russian victory. so it's in russia's best interest, i believe, to keep zalinski empowered to keep him viable and to keep him alive. so that of the surrender. who can be eventually negotiate? nichol. i, you want to jump in there at a word, go ahead about russian victory. i agree every, every thing on the law that we can see on the map and in the cards, points to a russian victory. partly because they've hardly deployed a sufficient. i mean, i don't one with the fish forces, but i mean they're, they're, they have a few or people there. and they have much greater

a resources available to them to carry this thing out of to accessible conclusion. but the point is, and this happened at the end of the last negotiations in, in his stumble. what if russia loses heart? what if the negotiating team actually is given orders to prepare, you know, some sort of agreement without fulfilling the military objectives and the political objectives stated, there could be a tremendous backlash as there was right after the end of the announcement, in a stumble, that some sort of major progress had been made. this was not met well in russian society. yeah. i say when we did a program on that and i but again i what i thought it focus on external matters. it didn't talk about internal and that's what i found it were the real kind of odd because it was only half the story here. gilbert,

let me kind of change gears here. here. what is the future of nato? because nato failed to keep the peace and for all the propaganda that comes out of that organization, there is not a whole lot of unity, and i think it's only going to get worse here. i think nato and it's, it's dr to dr. russia out of europe forever, is actually come up empty handed gilbert. go ahead. well, but judgment on that really depends on who you're talking to. that you're speaking to people in western europe there also, you know, there was never been so united and just look what we undertaken if you're speaking to outside observers like myself and i think you're, you're other analysts in that community in a situation is very different. russia has taken a beating up in the nato, was taken the beating in terms of prestige in terms of it's my ability as a alliance that can pretend that it can protect its members. the other states to

consider themselves frontlines, things like a baltic, thanks like poland. i think they all love to take, take notice that united states is standing back and has offered only a mid to the material aide to ukraine. a lot of it by the way, the equipment coming out of storage and not necessarily. ready uses but did i have states has in every way indicated it will not act up to help you craned keep its, its borders, keep it sovereignty, and so forth, even to the extent. and as far as i understand, united states has specifically said they will not stand as a guarantor of ukrainian sovereignty. under the terms of any peace, the agreement may be concluded. if i may just switch back a moment to the question of mr. zelinsky, i'm not so sure it's so simple and not so sure that his maintaining his position is in russia's, russia's interests,

and not so sure. the concluding abuse treaty is in russia's interests really makes no difference. it is force that speaks you. and i think any european power, who would like to go in again to ukraine after the server would be out of its might . so, yeah, cranes, future weather ratified by a peace tree, not ratified by history. will be the same as regards the successor terms to against against. he will be a very ugly personnel, and the real plugins of the kevin regime will be clear and whoever succeed zelinski . cholenski is an actor that ascii has been fed all this lines by the best of ustr firms, as an ascii is a great information war deficit for russia. so if he's gone so much better, it's got the thing that i look at as i look at a lot of these negotiations of just is this being bluster because i tend to agree with what you said on this program. is that political facts and the ground will re determined the outcome here. and you know,

you can have all the talk you want. but at the end of the day, what a debt small and say that a, how many divisions does the pope have go ahead. scott: no that's, that's absolutely true. um, you know, we are prisoners to the information we have right now of the west is very effective . it a flooding of the battlefield, so to speak in this information war with data of that up projects. one image. russia has not been so effective encountering that, and i am again, i think that's because russia simply doesn't care. russia isn't involved in information war rushes involved in real war. and um, you know, hopefully for the sake of russia, of that war is progressing along the lines that are acceptable to the political leadership in the military and the military can accomplish this. i do agree that if russia stopped short of fails to achieve effective denounce vacation,

and i will tell you this. if the next leader of ukraine is a prisoner to the far right is, is ugly as the gentleman speaks of been russia lost his war. because d nice vacation isn't just the physical destruction of a soft on bus and the other national battalions. de notification is the liquidation of the ideology of step arm, band error that resides and level, unless russia takes care of that, they haven't d not suffice anything. so who will j campaigns going to be broader and so that many people think having to have to fight that ideology in this century as well, who would have thought as all the time? we have gentlemen many thanks my guests in kingston, delmar, and in brussels. and thanks to our viewers for watching us here, dorothy see you next time. remember crossed up rules ah ah,

ah hunter rushin state. never unfolding those landscape with i'm not getting calls all something up for a week within the $55.00 will be paid. okay, so mine is gonna be the one else about this even with we will ban in the european union, the kremlin. yup. machines. the state aunt rush up to date and school r t spoke back to even our video agency, roughly all brand on youtube with the question, did you think it requests with me?

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