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with hello and welcome to cross stock where all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle as russia's military operation in ukraine interest the 2nd month, a popular dd, a parlor game, has come into existence. let's call it who is winning and who is losing. sadly, there isn't much time or interest in how to end the conflict. in the meantime, ukraine's fate is being decided, ah, cross talking the conflict in ukraine, i'm joined by my guess why petro in kingston is a professor of political science at the university of rhode island in delmar. we have scott ritter, he's a former intelligence officer and the united nations weapons inspector and in brussels. we cross the gilbert doctorow. he is an independent political analyst and historian or a gentleman cross hoc rolls. in fact, that means you can jump in any time you want and always appreciate it's got

a nickle i 1st nickel. i mean it's, it's very interesting watching the who's winning and who's losing a game on cable tv. a plethora of articles always in the, in the main broad sheets. but there seems to be preciously little interests and how to end the conflict. that doesn't mean to say that things aren't going on. there's a plan, there's, there's a of a format in bare room though. when sam ball, i'm covering it very weak watching it very, very carefully here. but it doesn't seem to get a whole lot of play. and all it takes is a secondary se, blank and say, well, we're not, we don't think the russians are serious. and then there's no discussion any further . how do you see this here? because there seems to be many elements in the media and in the political classes. in the west that actually want to see this war to continue go ahead nikolai. oh, well there are those who are you. it's in america's geo strategic interest to prolong this war to turn it into, ah, a russian, her 2nd organic dan or vietnam or something like that. all of

these views overlook the devastation that's occurring in ukraine itself and the damage also that is being done to the russian economy and to the economies of europe or in general. and i think that there is indeed, probably some strategy involved. biden keeps alluding to it in confusing and mysterious ways about a new world order, or hopefully the parameters of this new world order will become clearer to us mere mortals soon. yeah, well, i think that the war all daughter is going to be some very thick lines. ok of separation. scott, how do you see this? i mean, you know something about the military. i'm not interested in who is winning and who's losing. i'm interested in seeing the conflict resolved with as who deaths as possible on both sides here. but i, it really does disturb me,

but the kind of glee that you know, you throw in the graphics and the, you know, there's a counter offensive and all that, the way i love my sources tell me. and there's, there's actually very little resistance from the army, ukrainian army itself. it's these neo nazi battalions that are fighting to the death. go ahead, scott. i don't know. i mean, is clear to me that there's a significant, a military operation taking place in ukraine that involves heavy fighting on both sides of what i can say is this the united states has said that there have been multiple efforts by senior military officials here in the united states to reach out and contact their counterparts in russia, but that the phones aren't being answered, which should tell you everything you need to know about a b, gravitas, that should be attached to this ongoing western information warfare operation being

waged by both western mainstream media and the united states and nato, i'm, you know, propaganda is propaganda of if it's targeted it right now, it appears western propaganda is targeted for it to 3 target, one being of the, the, the, the, the civilians here at home to a generate outraged. because our outrage will then you'll of political resolve on the part of american politicians who will pressure their european counterparts. do engage in very um, a stringent economic sanctions and, and in the revitalization of nato. and then there's also the, the, the, the effort to bolster ukrainian spirits to let and believe them, maybe they're doing better than they can. the 3rd one of course, is to influence a russian domestic political opinion in an effort to create pressure from within

russia. on the russian government to alter their behavior in ukraine. ok. the, the only one, the counts as far as rushes concerned is the 3rd one. and one i, i don't believe it's, there is a massive a sky, russia. it's scott, it's, it's not working. all 3 of the points you mentioned are utter failures. here. you don't gilmer, one of the things i find very curious in looking at these negotiation formats. it's all about up the future of ukraine's external security relations. what is absent is that the internal makeup of ukraine, and i think nobody really wants to go there. but typically in ukraine and the americans and the british and other might members of nato don't want to go there either. because what's happening, the more the these talk sir, are the clock is run out, the more and i'm just speaking more my it myself. i see a partition going on here. and if we don't get this conflict resolved sooner rather

than later than it will be a de facto partition gilbert, your thoughts, i think it will be resolved later rather than sooner. ok, later being in a time perspective of 2 or 3 weeks, the russians have achieved very important territorial janes in the territories which they, where they concentrate their efforts. and where they had the only ask militia, joined them from the north. and they came up from the south, they surrounded more evil. they took essentially the whole of the series of literal . that is, that has great strategic importance and great economic importance for russian. however, does for ends that will rain remain forever with russia. now they are turning around and addressing the issue, which with which they started the war, which is to secure the don't ask and the guns could. oh boy, us as they were called republics as they're cool today. and members, cotton,

a constituent elements of the russian feder, as a surely will be in a matter of months. now what was missing here is to retort the, the, the, the ganske republic. now a car has under its control, 93 percent of the territory that was once through the guns homeless. that is to say status before who the war began in 2014. unfortunately, don't ask, is our dinners in a different situation and don't ask the the powers you forty's control only 50 percent of the land that was once the old list of done in other going ask and the, the obstacle there are what, what prevented them from achieving similar success to guns is that most of the 100000 soldiers that ukraine concentrated on the yep. river. it initial plans to overrun these republics. and they would have done that,

had the russians not intervened. that force is still there. and what we're about to see is the russians redirecting their fire power and coming up from the rear, striking at those $100000.00 ukrainian soldiers. so going over there, this is the, the 2nd stage. what we heard, we heard earlier that the 1st stage of the operation is over. let me go back to a nikolai, i mean, looking at, you know, the failure to or a president biden, to europe. i mean, that was a sight to see. but you know, a people say they were gaffs, but i think he told the truth, although every single time this is not even about ukraine, it's about regime change in russia. that's what i gleaned from what he had to say gilbert, i'm sorry, nick nick. like go ahead. well, he just laid bare his thinking inadvertently. i mean i, we all follow pub biden's career for many years. he's actually co offered

an article on, on our relations with russia, russia's future. and it's all been very clear from the beginning that he is no friend of russia. and it's therefore not surprising that he is professions of understanding and care for the rushing people. fallen on deaf ears and so not nothing surprising there. the question, but nichol, i mean if you have like victoria new and she was in the obama administration, i mean she is really the godmother of the my don losing crimea losing the don bass and now she's back. ok. and i'm always hardy that victoria knew, and when she gets her clause into ukraine, it just gets smaller and smaller. not really about joe biden. it's about a mindset in the foreign policy elite, nikolai. yes,

and that mindset is not going away. and i think it's obviously one of the things that eventually drove put in to this kind of reaction which is not to justify the reaction i, i am one of those who continue to hope that there could have been some sort of negotiation. i think that prior to this invasion, a rush actually had the diplomatic upper hand, by arguing, pointing to the fact that the western intelligence agencies were predicting invasion. but that not had happened. now i think issues on the a little bit on the other foot, and it's making the case for russia being an aggressor, unfortunately that much easier in the west. and that's another hurdle to overcome meeting. and that's a good point. but scott and scott, russia, it was always the aggressor, irrespective of what it does have been invaded or didn't invade it. i mean,

i agree with nikolai on a rhetorical level, but i mean, this is a godsend for people like victoria new and because they have so much more work to do, go ahead. we have one minute before we go to the right. go ahead. scott: i don't think russia cares victoria, and i don't think russia cure. i don't think they care about bind, or anybody. russia is going to do a rush is going to do to resolve its own security problems in there. they're in the ukraine right now, doing just that, and i think ukraine will unfold on a time table. it's dictated by moscow, by brussels, not by washington, d. c. now, by seeing in. well, it's at, that's very interesting because when you are the way i've looked at the coverage of it, i mean, in the way the media leads and political leads. this is their story. it really has its very divorced from the events going on on the ground. and i, i tend to agree with scott. moscow is going to do what it's going to do when it's done. it's a, it's going to say it's done on that point general and we're going to go to a short break. and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on the conflict in ukraine. stay with our team.

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ah, welcome at the cross walk where all things are considered on peter labelle. reminder, we're discussing the conflict in ukraine. ah, let's go back to gilbert in brussels, gilbert. what kind of ukraine is going to come out of this? um, you know, we had the, the, the coup in 2014, the grand crimea voted to leave. ah, don bass separated itself from kev. we're looking at the military operation, alga rushes, military operation. now it will lose its access to the see. most definitely and there's nothing anyone can do about that. so what kind of ukraine is there going to be is going to be a rum state, you know, with alisha ideology and all of that. i mean, is that something that you want? does anybody want that go ahead?

gilbert ranch state might be a misnomer because we're speaking about a republics. don't boston the territory to the south, but it's been conquered in last 4 weeks fighting, getting the russians control over the whole a lot. see literal, that's maybe 15 percent of the territory crane, and it isn't a much greater percentage of the population before the war. so, um, what we, what remains to be see is whether there will be a genuine partition between the eastern part of the remains of ukraine, which has a fairly high percentage of a hat before this war. high percentage of russian speakers and peoples identified themselves as russian as that's likely and the western side of the jumper, which has a considerably higher percentage of people who consider themselves to be ukranian

speakers. that remains possibility, but i think it's unlikely now who will take control of that depends on the weeks ahead. what will be the results of the russians declare from the beginning they wanted the notification and demilitarization. now that may be a nice objective negotiations, but i think it's a still more effective objective in action on the ground. the russians declared today that they had destroyed 90 percent of more of the cranium, military production. they, if they succeed in smashing the $100000.00 ukranian army that is parked on the left bank on the west of the camper, then they will effectively boasted enough. and demilitarized ukraine, whatever much put in the pit down on a piece of paper, the mitchell, your landscape will sign before he runs away or is hanged. okay, before he run. so it's an interesting way of putting and nikolai who's,

who's going to determine the outcome of this conflict here. and what would be a fair outcome? ok, make yourself a neutral observer? what would be fair at the end of the day? i want to keep our keep our viewers in mind with, you know, thinking about 8 years of war and the dumb best which the west took no interest in whatsoever. you know, that is very, very important. the west doesn't recognize the crimea referendum, but the certainly the crimea, and to do so, where at this stage here, what would be fair or is that impossible to answer? go ahead. not sure that we can talk in terms of fairness. now they'll have to be determined over more than our lifetimes, unlink pending on interpretations. i'd like to say a few words, literally, a single words about the kind of ukraine that we're going to see at the, or after military. the military actions are over. we will no doubt

have a more nationalistic ukraine, a weaker ukraine, a more illiberal ukraine. we're already seeing the manifestations of this and the rest of more or less, every opposition figure in ukraine. and of course, a more resentful ukraine for this generation. at least 1211. what, where is i tell them an will that be resentment against the west as well? yes. yes, yes. and, and the best lesson i think that ah, thoughtful ukrainian elite can take out of this is to be more reliant on their own interests. and think about their own interests 1st as independent actors. well, the you saying the quiet part out loud, because scott out that was good to me. my question to do. who is the decision maker here? because, you know, if is a lensky runs away, i mean, as he is he

a free agent is, does he has a, does he a person that can actually make a decision in your opinion, scott? well, the russian certainly hope is because all of these finality is that a people expect out of this conflict, for instance, ukrainian recognition. the crimea is russia ukrainian recognition that the former obligates of the gods contin yeske are now independent of ukraine. perhaps expanded to include a mario, poland, a and in other areas around the as of lateral on this can only happen um, in a, in a way that in be accepted by the west. if zalinski signs on to it, you know, he has been elevated to a winston churchill like aerobic figure. and the west has articulated that it is up to him to dictate the terms of peace. so your zalinski of course has

a lot of pressure. um he if he surrenders too fast, he might get hung by the right wing nationalists if he drags this thing on the west is going to be a little bit more reticent about provide enough, you know, military support that simply gets blown up or captured by the russians, so there's a balancing act, but at the end of the day, zelinski is the only authority in ukraine. they can provide legitimacy to a russian victory, and there will be a russian victory. so it's in russia's best interest, i believe, to keep zalinski empowered to keep him viable and to keep him alive. so that of the surrender. who can be eventually negotiate? nichol. i, you want to jump in there had a word go ahead about russian victory. i agree every, every thing on the law that we can see on the map and in the cards, points to a russian victory. partly because they've hardly deployed a sufficient. i mean,

i don't one with the fish forces, but i mean they're there. they have fewer people there and they have much greater a resources available to them to carry this thing out of to accessible conclusion. but the point is, and this happened at the end of the last and go see ations in in istanbul. what if russia loses heart? what if the negotiating team actually is given orders to prepare, you know, some sort of agreement without fulfilling the military objectives and the political objectives stated, there could be a tremendous backlash, as there was right after the end of the announcement. in a stumble, that some sort of major progress had been made. this was not met well in russian society. yeah. i like say when we did

a program on that and i but again i what i thought it focus on external matters. it didn't talk about internal and that's what i've had where the real kind of odd because it was only half the story here. gilbert, let me kind of change gears here. here. what is the future of nato? because nato failed to keep the peace and for all the propaganda that comes out of that organization, there is not a whole lot of unity, and i think it's only going to get worse here. i think nato and it's, it's dr to dr. russia out of europe forever. his actually come up empty handed gilbert. go ahead. but judgment on that really depends on who you're talking to. if you're speaking to people in western europe, there also, you know, there was never been so united and just look what we have undertaken. if you're speaking to outside observers, like myself, and i think you're, you're other analysts in that community in a situation is very different. russia has taken a beating up in the nato,

was taken the beating in terms of prestige in terms of it's my ability as a alliance that can pretend that it can protect its members the other states to consider themselves frontlines, things like the baltics, thanks like poland i think they all love to take, take notice that united states is standing back and has offered only a mid to the material aid to ukraine. a lot of it, by the way, the equipment coming out of storage and not necessarily. ready uses but did i, states has, in every way indicated it will not act up to help you craned keep its, its borders, keep it sovereignty, and so forth, even to the extent. and as far as i understand, united states has specifically said they will not stand as a guarantor of ukrainian sovereignty. under the terms of any peace, the agreement may be concluded. if i may just switch back

a moment to the question of mr. zelinski, i'm not so sure it's so simple and not so sure that his maintaining his position is in russia's, russia's interests, and not so sure. the concluding abuse treaty is in russia's interests really makes no difference. it is force that speaks you. and i think any european power, who would like to go in again to ukraine after this over would be out of it's might . so yeah, cranes, future, whether ratified by a peace tree not ratified by history, will be the same as regards to success, which are still against against you. he will be a very ugly personnel, and the real loveliness of the cuban regime will be clear and whoever succeed zalinski cholenski is an actor that ascii has been fed all this lines by the best of ustr firms. as the landscape is a great information war deficit for russia. so if he's gone so much better, it's got the thing that i look at as i look at a lot of these negotiations of just is this being bluster because i tend to agree

with what you said on this program. is that political facts and the ground will re determined the outcome here. and you know, you can have all the talk you want. but at the end of the day, what a debt small and say that a, how many divisions does the pope have go ahead. scott: no that's, that's absolutely true. um, you know, we are prisoners to the information we have right now of the west is very effective . it a flooding of the battlefield, so to speak in this information war with data that projects one image. russia has not been so effective encountering that, and i am again, i think that's because russia simply doesn't care. russia isn't involved in information war rushes involved in real war. and, you know, hopefully for the sake of russia, of that war is progressing along the lines that are acceptable to the political

leadership in the military and the military can accomplish this. i do agree that if russia stopped short of fails to achieve effective denounce vacation, and i will tell you this. if the next leader of ukraine is a prisoner to the far right, it is as ugly as the gentleman speaks of been russia lost his war. because d nice vacation isn't just the physical destruction of a soft on bus and the other national battalions. de notification is the liquidation of the ideology of step arm, band error that resides and level, unless russia takes care of that, they haven't d not suffice anything. so i hope will j campaigns going to be broader and so that many people think having to have to fight that ideology in this century as well. who would have thought as all the time? we have gentlemen many thanks my guests in kingston, delmar, and in brussels. and thanks to our viewers for watching us here. dorothy, see you next time. remember crosstalk rules.

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with a a, an oil dead poets bombed in the western russian city of vel grove out most go say if you have carried out the attack, the cranial thirty's have yet to comment with an r t crew survive the sniper bush, while reporting on the street that ukraine's war torn city of mario called this road just before this building with was short with also in the program, rushes for us to visit the india and say western on reliability will grow bilateral

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