ah i mean ah, i'm african regards in welcome to going other guy. we're back and coming to you for now from a new location today. exactly 40 years in several 1000 argentine troops sees the falkland islands or malvina back from great britain before margaret thatcher's british army took it back. 74 days later. this is the annual e u. china summit had scheduled for the 2nd day of to friday's peace talks between ukraine and russia. all this, while the e u is banned. this program is tv channel,

still broadcast all around the world except in nature were lined countries while joining me now from rome for this episode, as former adviser to the european union's high representative, a common foreign and security policy and conflicts forum found alice the crook. alistair, welcome back on going underground. let's begin with perhaps the need for you to remind us what you think is the start of this conflict and the reasons for the conflict given that certainly in the european union where a descent is arguably band. we are told almost hourly that pushing invaded ukraine without provocation. oh no, it's very clear. the talk. we're dealing with israeli something and it's much broader than just ukraine. and both presidents pull in and she have both made said that this is a bite reordering. if you like the security architecture of the,

the global security architecture away from a simple rules based order that is set by the united states in order to give these other states see to the board. if you like to be able to have a discussion. there is really no communication before that there was a very good analogy made by someone, but it was like a chessboard and united states that at one end of the chessboard, and someone said, well to, to play this game of chess. and it was present sky, back and present. he said not to one. there's no other in this case, we just simply turn the board round and then we play from the other side. and that's been going on really the whole for a long time. and now russia and china won her seat at that chessboard and they don't accept any longer. the united states simply turns the chessboard through 180 degrees and starts playing from the other side as well as their own. so they

want a seat of the chessboard. that's what ukraine is about. was her a provocation. yes. because people have been warning from o, long time. 2007, even the present had of the cia in washington. when he was ambassador. moscow said, if you move nato into georgia and ukraine, though, will be war is inevitable. difficult, though, for china, the you, china virtual summit, they to on, on the saturday. i'm not sure that you will be again lecturing china about human rights. but despite the reaffirmation of the alliance, more than the alliance between begging and moscow, of course, poland, ukraine, italy, where you are, and they are belton road countries. ukraine, a born of the biggest investment in europe, coming from china. how does china navigate that?

how is it allied to russia, even whilst are these countries that are spearheading the conflict? certainly in information terms, the fed there on washington side. oh, there is a very pros rapport between russia and china. and i think the decision, if you like to disassociate from europe and from the west, generally, was probably taken even a year before the famous declaration that was made by both the chinese and the russian precedents in bay, where they said they will no longer put up with, if you like, the american imposed global order that we are going to change that and go to compare the globe broader. and of course, that has caused a great deal of anger and also anxiety in the west about this prospect.

but i think it's very clear where it's going because they do coordinate very close and we've seen rushes or response rushes responses. it has a list of friendly nations with whom it does business, transact problematically with them, and those that are not really screwed. it probably won't even be able to get pieces to travel. i think china will do it in its own time. but this is the model that we're going to see. and of it was a 2 spheres, 2 separate spheres. and remaining on the fence is going to be so uncomfortable and so painful that it will become impossible eventually. so people will have to choose which, which side they want to reside on. we saw a bit of that with the will. it was more complicated not, but with must go telling the are again, you know, you want you want gas. ok. paying one no more dollars. no more euros after you

stole 4 in reserve in the united states and in europe. yeah, some people actually commented that leave $300000000000.00 in for an assets in, in dollars may, will be in moscow trick. it seemed all too easy. so that immediately russia could retaliate by saying, it must be charging roubles when it comes to energy resources in europe. what do you think? se, berlin, where, where energy resources are all important from russia? and when will the lights go out? they are talking about the need perhaps for rationing, but then the g 7 says, absolutely north you're, you're breaking the contract and you must judge if not in dollars than in euro's. and i should just also say, we don't regulated by the british regulator anymore. but as you know, nato allied countries all say this is unprovoked for moscow. well, 1st of all,

i mean that you've raised a number of points in this, in this issue. but it was provoked, essentially by the taking all, if you like instruments, death in 2 months, from the cold foreign reserves and those death instruments. i mean, if you write, when you simply see from o capital as united states and europe has done, i mean, that's a breach of contract to that is a care breach of contract to pay on those contracts like us treasury's all on currency. they are just, if you like, an obligation to pay those who kind of so if you like, in a sense, russia could always paid for the measure. now, as to changing the contract, i heard a lot of that from european countries saying, well, you know, we can't change the contracts and i'm changeable. but you're

a big proposed precisely that to rush or not so long ago because they said they didn't want any longer. to have long term contracts with russia, they'd like to have both prices for that gas, and we're moving in that direction and we'd like to go on to the spot market for the prices. so let's change our contract. so if it was all right for the you to propose that why if it not, all right, for russia to propose that they now pay and why it shouldn't be too difficult for them to try and $1.00 the, we all know there's an underlying reason why they don't want to do that because there's a fear that the financial system which is already shifted. the global monetary system is already shifting away from fear money, which basically has no rail backing to it at all. it's just a promise to pay nothing more. and the promise to pay by putting more money. but moving away from that to a commodities, an acid base currencies,

i currencies that are based on real things like either gas or oil weight. whatever the ram, ram, metals, oh, gold. and this is where we seem to be moving. i mean, it was 971 that mixed and did away with the gold would. and now quietly, without much attention in the press. russia has me establish a gold window for roubles. and that translates also into an equivalent price of roubles for the dollar of about $75.00. google's, the dollar. since they did this, we've seen the rule shoot up in value against the dollar. and then they've also said we'd like to have, you know, payment roubles, which means that these foreign country companies in the european union are going to have to go buy roubles. and that is going to push the ruble out further and make it

much more very valuable. currency as a trading instrument to so you know, paradoxically, you remember, it was only in the beginning of much the, the french finance was saying are a, is to collapse the russian economy. and to collapse so to speak. the rubel as part of that. he said that at the beginning of much, and now one months later, we see in the financial press, many commentators talking about this is beginning of the end of the global monitoring system. because of the crisis of confidence that ultimately, you know, it worked so long as the dollar was vaguely in line with certain commodities. but since they made the mistake of sanctioning russia so heavily, russia is capable of all commodities, food, resources, oil,

gas, precious metals, everything comes from russia. if they don't have supply lines. so when they do that, they've made the mayhem in all of the commodity market, and that's affecting the currency when it comes to the way the rest of the world sees this conflict. i'm not sure what you thought about the western rewards nation reports that saudi arabia, the you a refuse, biden's phone call. we know that suddenly a team was sent to venezuela, where one thing tank said, 40000 were killed by us sanctions against the madura government. there the world food program is warning about which prices in egypt because we, the buyer does shillinger and russia together have the kind of infrastructural clout, to be able to save the world from global famine,

caused if you believe moscow by nato expansion, eastwood. and if you believe nato caused by vladimir putin there, oh i, it is not so straightforward because we have a major problem with food griping, which is not just concerned with the war in ukraine. although ukraine and russia combined produce something like 35 percent of global week supplies. so yes, to that extent. but it is also something that is more than that because there are other factors involved in it festival. we have a drought much of the middle east, which is affecting production food production across the middle east. so that's an important fact. but also because some of the sanctions on russia have affected important areas of fertilizer. other things that are necessary in food production,

certain gas is necessary also, and all of these are being blocked at the moment by sanctions. and so it's causing a huge problem and in some cases, farmers in the western are planting crops or planning to fun crops because the price fertilizes has shot up the components to these either come from better, russo, they come from russia and they're just not available at the moment, so one part of it is sanctions. one part of it is the context is taking probably from ukraine. another part of it is drug. and another part is the fact that in many parts of the world, the attempt to move towards the green world from the sort of, if you like, the us agenda has actually met the crops are not being planted. they're called several components to it. and i think this problem is certainly we are going to

feel the effects and prices, inflation. food is going to be very expensive. inflation and europe is soaring, as it is in the united states and many other places. this is becoming a major crisis. the sanctions, in many ways, europe as not sanctioned russia, it's sanctioning itself, you know, not being able to get things like fertilizers, not being able to get things that are necessary. food that is necessary is, is sanctioning europeans going to make it much harder for people to survive on incomes because the price is going up so rapidly as golf. stop you there. more from the forward valencia european union tie, representative a common foreign and security policy after this break. the christina, it isn't there. but

a maybe a with a lot of the b. b a

shape out the same becomes the after kid and engagement. it was the trail when so many find themselves, well the part we choose to look so common ground with welcome back. i'm still here with for the british diplomat and final recalls. explore how to crook. do you think that the european union just doesn't understand? you were an advisor to the equivalent of the you foreign minister, because at the same time as her, the rest of the world may be holds fast, learn waltz, maybe even ruler. and certainly boston are in brazil in south africa,

all these countries in the global, south, defacto back russia as seen by nato. meanwhile, in europe, the war by russia is paid for by european union money, de facto $100000000000.00 fortune magazine, said, comes from the european union into russia to pay for gas oil and coal. at the same time, as you just said, they're in effect, sanctioning themselves. and berlin is telling its citizens to and perhaps rash and gas and they're all over western europe. they're talking about how some of them talk about mass, a fuel poverty. i think you raise a really important question because i don't see any sign that the europeans did any gave any thought to the strategic consequences of what they were doing. they were so caught up in the sort of sense of the struggle against russia or against put in

the decatur or more of us and has become a sort of fervor in europe all everywhere. there are sort of blue and yellow symbols of ukraine. it's become such a firm that i don't think they really thought, i mean europe cannot manage as it is. they cannot get gas from anywhere else that will substitute from russia. yes, that's just obvious. the americans have promised a small amount of new liquefied natural gas. but that will cover about 4 percent of the you needs your required 40 percent gut tod. it's not going to be able to surprise it's not going to get supplied. so why do they go into these things without any thinking? and then suddenly they say, well, we're going to divest ourselves from reliance on russian or oil and gas within the yeah. how, i mean have they got a plan for this is

a serious how you doing good to do that. you know, you can't just change the thing overnight, then they're surprised when rush this ok now pain rubles, did they not consider that possibility? did they not think where it was going to take? has they not consider the impact on inflation and inflation is soaring in the europe, ian union at the moment while they still stay on a monetary and economic policy, which is not that's still doing quantitative easing and negative interest rates effectively and buying all the bonds, the certain countries produced to find from that day, i mean, how long long can you go on a nice sort of basis when inflation is, you know, the impression figures highly manipulated, but we're talking about large figures, double digit tickets and in europe can reality. even if they say it's a little less and people are going to feel

a huge amount of pain. the costs of gas and electricity like in the u. k, are going to go up 50 percent. they've gone up 50 percent, they'll probably go up and up a 100 percent before the end of this year. how people going to survive with this? have they not made any consideration? has they not posted through? they've cut off all the links. they've created a sort of uncut against russia. they can't even talk to, to, to better to rush aut food in at the moment. they've so cut themselves off in their sort of enthusiasm and their excitement for protecting europe in values and to what they see as a sort of barbarian culture of russia. it's not that of course, but that's how they seem to see it. and so, you know, i, that's why i'm very pessimistic that they can come up with the rel solution. well, of course, joe biden assure his europe that the fact gas from the us will be on time and

important common data and think tanks in nato countries. constantly talk about cutter saving the day. if both of those are rubbish, the actual contract, the americans that the european union produced doesn't have any commitment to that extra 50000000000 cubic meters of gas. it says america will do its best endeavors to meet the best endeavors is going to follow house. gotta the said, formerly, i know german minister went back, came back and said that they will help us with gus. but actually doha, i said fully, we never made that commitment. we couldn't make the commitment. we don't have the capacity to make that commitment. i'm very sorry. if we cannot replace rush and gas . so where you is it coming from? well, as you know, and as you alluded to, for instance,

u. k prime minister bars johnson talking about it's the principle with math is this is about the foundations of the european, the ideal philosophically, even even the enlightenment being talked about. obviously, one feels it strangely when it comes to the banding of free expression and free media obviously or, or t comes to mind because he g, d, n and prestige. a media is band a dissenting media. zelinski as, as, as being the subject ga, give you a huge p o or operation in western europe and they to aligned countries. what do you think he faces at home in ukraine, as per the far right elements in ukraine society and, and he's in effect putting needs to protect him as piece talks go forward. if a piece deal is, is to emerge. i mean, it's a, it's

a complicated picture, but we do know that lensky, of course, has, i mean, all of these zoom meetings, we're parliaments, and have been carefully choreographed and someone has provided the videos and the, the means to do this. and that almost certainly is united states. and the question really comes down to the issue of is the united states ready? all, all of europe can face because some of them don't seem to be really ready to for a long war. or do they want to short for in the crane and a political settlement? and it's not clear that, that the fission has been made. we see that i think you mentioned yourself at the start that was, you know, so far there was nothing and that would be another meeting. wait wrong. i don't

think savanski is a free agent in this. he is very close. you know, even with his background, he is surrounded by members of the health and right fact groups and work very closely with some of the leaders of those groups. and are they ready for the thief or any of the process? it's not clear that that is the case, but it's also not peer in russia has certain objectives for this a military operation. and it is still possible that if they feel they have achieved those objectives, they may feel that the best thing is simply just to go and leave. and the don, yes, good. now, scott, republics will be look after themselves and their own way. once the russians have completed them in a trail ration black sea cope will be similarly,

probably an autonomous region may be western ukraine will be taken by the pose. maybe parts of the other parts of ukraine will be taken by hungry. we don't know quite certainly the polish prime minister has made it very care. they have territorial issues because most of that land on the west can evolve and all of that were polish. richard lee and he said they had territorial needs requirements from, from u. k. and i think there was a long conversation between the polish president and that has biden, when he was in walsall, when the polish president was, are getting very strong polish military should be able to go into, you can and take some of that plan that was threatening so, i mean, we may see something very different as the outcome if the comp negotiate diplomatic outcome. we may find this a sort of de facto,

but can i say that takes place in your crime? i'm not sure who that would suit if anyone, but i mean one can say that it's not going to be an option. it might be the only thing that emerges. photo will for lack of anything better to arrive from the situation. presumably china wouldn't appreciate that too. much with its close trading days with key f, but if billions of dollars worth a weapons continues to be poured into ukraine by nature lying countries, notably the united states of many see see is prolonging the war. can we see an uptick in the violence? we've seen the pictures of so many refugees alone, dead bodies of civilians. can we see an uptick and increase violence, or will nato, along with, with businesses and the, and the corporations of the planet eventually have to back down to save. well,

to save the planet in effect, you know, the united states continues to put money in there, just announced all money and other, other trash and more weapons to go there. i'm not sure that they can actually get those weapons into you. great, because the russians have been very adept at destroying weapons, supplies, and warrens dance inside you create even close to the polish border. so it's not so clear that this is really possible, but nonetheless, can, can the war go on? i think there is a camp within, let's call it a camp within washington that would like it to become a quiet like has gotten this done. was the, the says that union well, those years ago when i was that would they like to do the same? some one can does, that's largely the state the position. i think another one like pentagon is much less. he asked about that much less than to stick because it feels that this might

lead to a big conflict with russia. cook, thank you. that's it for the show. if you're watching this on saturday, it will be replayed on monday and keep in touch my social media if it's available in your country. and remember, you can continue to watch going on the right. it says globally on tv outside major or line countries, and always on odyssey and auto dot com ah, it will be long debating whether the warrant ukraine could have been avoided. what is not really open debate, because how centers of power i've been shifting to the east, the rise of asia as it were. the war in ukraine is only accelerated that trend

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