simsi the silicon, it seems a remarkably relevant the may hold help, not just one, but 2 political dynasties to return or stay in power despite their brother, contentious legacies. wise family politics. so attractive to filipinos. well, to discuss that, i'm now enjoying by areas of r. o guy, political science professor at the university of the philippines, dylan man, professor r reads great to talk to you. thank you very much for your time. thanks for having me. now i filipino politics over the last couple of figures. i wasn't boring at all, but even by your boisterous rather boisterous vendors. i think the latest elections produced rather remarkable results. we have the son of an ousted and disgraced leader, often described as a, as a brutal dictator, being chosen as president the life and the daughter of a pretty controversial outgoing president. also often described as

a dictator and now being elected as a vice president. this is an amazing ticket. i don't think we have seen anything of this sort in recent years in global politics. what does it say about the aspirations of filipino voters? well, we're, we did not just elect a president in a vice president coming from 2 of the most powerful political families in the philippines. but they were elected, overwhelmingly wait with the majority mandate of the latest count is that both of them almost got around 58 percent of the vote. and in our system we don't have a run of elections that assures a majority mandate. we only have a plurality system. so this is the 1st time that a president and a vice president has been elected by a majority since democracy was restored in 1986. and for that majority mandate to be earned by 2 children of a former president may said,

really an astounding electoral outcome. it seems like the majority has spoken, but we know that as you have said, this electoral campaign has been very polarizing. and talked at the very least, you mentioned that it's quite astounding. it's as founding, not only because of the solid numbers that they got, and it's, it's pretty remarkable in this day and age for an approval ratings around the world . a pretty low people have very, very little in, in politics world wide, but was it yet? what is even more astounding is that them, you know, this restoration of a democracy that you mentioned actually happened after the ousting of a, of the father of, of one of the elected leaders. so, how do you explain this a very remarkable reversal of political fortunes. but in, in the 1st place, ah, we did not see marcus junior and cited the pair to get a go head to head. so instead of competing with one another,

which would have been altered the, the outcome. and i do think that outside the tear, they might have the advantage here simply because she's the daughter of the present or the outgoing president. but because they did not compete, they even what i called cartilage themselves. they formed what they call a dynasty cartel, a cartel of dynasties, with support from another former president who's also a, an offspring of a previous president. glory him up about the royal who forged the alliance. so basically you have this cartel of dynasties saying that we're not going to compete with one another. and like before, we're gonna team up and therefore really band together and ensure that there will be no competition. i know that under your system and you already mentioned that. a different than the vice president elected separately. even though marcus and chairs and juniors campaigned under the seem of unity,

i think they even called their political pairing unit team. do you think this semblance of unity or them saying on one page will, will remain once they get to the very tedious and sometimes very contentious business of governing. right. 4 there been doubts because as i said, dynasties have not cartilage like this before. and there are a few coalitions, but normally those coalitions are don't be last long because there's no credible commitment to state, of course, simply because politics is a, a winner take all thing in, in the philippines. so it means that if you're the one ruling, then you can simply say, i'm not gonna share power, right? but if this cartel this alliance between the marcus's and the tear does somehow get reflected throughout the next 6 years, this i would even called promiscuous power sharing. would even mean that perhaps it

would be sorry, the terry did at me and run in 2028 with another mark course as a, as a running mate. and then they will just switch. and this will happen for years and years simply because the dynasty card dale will solidify. however, we do know that filipinos get tired of the same brad over and over again. and i think this is the beauty of democracy. filipinos can then choose other brand specially if they don't perform well. now, speaking about brands are both among marcus and sarah to teresa are very colorful personalities. and i think it was somewhat similar political paths, not only in terms of their family legacy, but also in terms of their governing experiences, both on the taste of governing, regional, marital governing fairly young in their early late twenty's. and so they bring something to the table apart from their family names as well. is it fair to paint

them only as hairs to influential plans or do they have something to show on an individual basis? right. a marcus junior became governor of a province of north, it was hired to tear to became near of the city in which she replaced our her father the the current president rodrigo the territory. so they had local government experience. although in comparison with, with their parents, i would say that they still have to prove their mettle, that they will still have to just get out of the shadows of their parents. and i think part of getting out of that shadow is really either i, are they just gonna be clothes of their parents, or are they going to do something different? are they just going to mimic, or are they going to be a different kind of a dinah, something that will modernize the country and move the country forward if they're, if they're really slow, if their slogan is really unity,

i do think they have to do more than simply copy paste from their father. well, i don't know about you, but i, i've been fascinated by, sorry to tear there and, and from what i've read of her as she secreted rebellious personality, she described her own relationship with her father as a love hate one. she defied him on many occasions, even though he himself, i invested in her education and saw her as you know, as a, as a very bright child. what about marcus junior? how would you characterize his relationship with his immediate and broader family? yes, let us remember that president the territory wanted sarah the target run for president . that was supposed to be the original plan, but sorry to tear de settled to run for vice president. and i'm, she has not had the very good relationship, even with the allies and a party of, of president the territory. and this is why she somehow wanted to charge her own course and aligning with the marcus is and, and got him up

a belatoya was more like an initiative of sad that i'm going to charge my own political path on my own. i need the of the territory, but i'm not just going to be under his shadow. marcus, on the other hand, is a bit different because in my own take, i do think this presidency is not just about bumble marcus himself. this is about the dynasty, the marcus dynasty ruley, the country. so we, because the, the elder sister is a shipping senator of the republic of his son is going to be a member of parliament of the house of representatives. so we see the dynasty occupying certain positions solidifying. there there's just at the support poppy, the family events. i think that's the big difference sarah might be more of a lone wolf. while marcus junior will be ruling on behalf of house that there of

house marcus. but he or will still be doing that ruling or governing depending on your point of view, political point of view, i guess with the popular support, he didn't just inherit that he had to win it at the polls. i get it correctly. yes . but because he campaigned using authoritarian the style jane fancy. so and the, the network of disinformation and propaganda has been built since he ran for vice president in 2016. that was relentless. and i'm not even the other campaigns was able to catch up because the other campaign simply started last year, while marcus junior and the marcus family has been planning this. because if the market has really want to grab power, they could have run in 2016 against the 3rd day. they could have run in 2010 against the son of corners or knocking or that would have been a battle for that would be freely. manila,

the son of an aquino versus the son of em. marcos. but we didn't see that they bided their time. they waited for the right opportunity and in the end president the terror is governance populace of or paid the way for a mark was junior precedence. i've heard many western commentators accusing a mark as junior of being extremely populous than you know, making promises that he may not be able to fulfill. specifically when it comes to the class of decreasing living, sanders, decreasing living expenses rather, and a increasing living sanders. given that food and fuel prices are rising all around the world. cham, he's government and deliver on the promises that they made. right? that is the challenge in the philippines in filthy politics. we have a saying, it's easy to run, and when the more difficult part is governing. so marcus junior is transitioning

from marcus junior, the candidate to marcus junior, ah, the ruler or the governor. so this means that he set up it for himself, high expectations by making all those glimmering promises of lower rice prizes of jobs infrastructure. and the philippine economy is in heavy decline. we. we had the steepest decline in southeast asia. and guess what, the, the, i'll going to 3rd administration is already saying that the only way to recover is new taxes. so that's going to be a challenge for mark was junior. okay, well we have to take a short break professor for the time being, but we'll be back to this fascinating discussion in just a few moments. ah

ah, nice to come to the russian state will never be. i've side as i phone in the most, i'm skiing with 55 with speedy, one else with will ban in the european union. the kremlin. yup. machine. the state on crush us for date and our t spoke neck. even our video agency, roughly all band to on youtube with

me. ah ah welcome back to world wide smith. aries are gay, political science professor at the university of philippines. dylan, professor before the break group discuss primarily domestic implications. busy of

the may vote, but for many of our international is the most interesting question is that of the philippines to political orientation, because for, for decades, your country has been a close do political and military ally of the united states. something that may have started changing under president rodriguez the terror then do you expect that more of the same under the, an markers to tear to junior team? let us remember if we look at previews philippine presidents with the exception of precedent. the 3rd day each of the philippine president including for dylan marcos, senior, tried to hedge between great powers in the region, notably they knighted states china and even other countries. so this is the default on possession of any new president. with the exception of rodrigo, there who instantly pivoted to china and um, almost

a abrogated the visiting forces agreement with united states, a marcus junior presidency. and we've seen some tense of that with him meeting with the officials from the united states, from china are from, from other countries, japan, et cetera. marcus junior doesn't have the personal baggage, unlike rodrigo de tara day, and has actually not read in ah, the mutual defense treaty. on the other hand, we also know that marcus junior has very close relations with china when he was governor of his province. he set up a consulate of china in his own province. that's how he wanted to be close to china . so i think what will happen here is that though, a marcus junior will try to of do a, a delicate balancing act. but as we will see, this my change in the coming years, depending on how that hedging will, will be a successful or not,

shall professor you mentioned before that mark as junior, comes to power with ill prior to political baggage. but as far as i understand, he has some outstanding legal issues with the american justice system. he and his mother defy a court order. i'm asking them to pay $350000000.00 to the elijah victims of human rights abuses during his father's thompson office. how do you see the case progressing from now on day thing? it may be reopened, or do you think it may be forgotten, right? when, when you, as president biden called gun barkus junior, i doubt whether that was one of the topics that that was discussed. i do think that what will happen here most likely is that marcus junior won't be treated as marcus junior. i'm a citizen, but mark was a junior as head of state and therefore will be granted sovereign immunity. and on . this will allow hand, for example,

to visit the united states. something that president prepared there was not able to do is the only philippine president that has not visited any country in the west. when he was president, the, the most western frontier that he visited is actually russia. ah, so, so this makes mark was junior a bit, have them bit more flexibility. and despite this case, i do think that the night that states will not sacrifice is strategic interests. in the philippines in the region, over this case. well professor, i agree with the rental history and known, say quite a few public figures from nelson mandela to, nor random audi who were once banned from entering the united states. and once washington found some political expediency, those restrictions were lifted. but i think there is, there is a difficulty in this particular case or in, in that it's simply so massive. i'm in the, the marker senior regime was accused of such atrocities that forgetting about those

alighted crimes. at this point of time, i may not reflect very well on the, on the united states and divide an administration which supposedly places human rights concerns at the, at the center of its policies. i understand that the mark assembly may well from that decision producing the united states politically can afford to do that. the false, the factor that needs to be monitored here also is u. s. domestic politics. we know that bite and will be up for reelection. and that the democrats hold on on both houses of their congress is also, is also precarious. so let's say a trump wince again, or a republican politician that will somehow even massage the, i think the case even more and won't give into the human rights democracy. pushed that the by did administration, has been doing the call of biden,

to marco's junior, for me was very symbolic because i think they night, that states really messed up when it didn't reach out to president deter day. when he won in 2016, they thought that while the philippines is an old ally, so it wouldn't stray far. but we the tear to has shown that it could. it could conduct an independent foreign policy. so date, they're very careful with how they're dealing with marcus year present. but on the other hand, professor present chairs as you sat and threatened to you know, walk away from the visiting forces agreements a couple of times with at the end of the day he didn't. why do you think he didn't? oh, it's luck. mainly because of the pandemic. ah, we must remember that the philippines has had one of the worst pandemic responses in around 20202021. and when, when the biden administration took over and that this allowed a,

an opening for the us to reach out to the philippines and asked for what it needs the, the deterred administration. and the 3rd himself even said in one, 0, one of his weekly addresses that i'm not gonna hostage the v of a if they big vaccines. and that's what the u. s. actually did. it was a lost opportunity for china because china just kept on selling us back seeds rather than really competing with the philippines for that response and his why. the 30th stop with his anti u. s. rhetoric. and has actually started invoking the arbitrary ruling against china in this last 2 years of all throughout this discussion that we've been sorta touching on. this is very delicate choice that manila has to make between a washington in beijing and marcus junior, already described a money, was relationship with washington as food, very important. but at the same time, he also said what you said that he's country will have to walk a very, very fine line between china and the united states. and in, in your view,

what would represent this optimal balance as far as the philippines are concerned. and i think it's, it's what every southeast asian country tries to do. and, and that is a rely on the united states for security and defense. well, at the same time, relying on china for economics and for trade. this, the coupling is precarious, meaning other southeast asian countries have failed in their attempts. and the philippines is not used to this because for the longest time its economy was also peg with the u. s. the west. so therefore, this is a challenge for the incoming marcus junior administration, while the de turret administration and the president president there has opened the line with, with china marcus. then we'll have the challenge of maintaining it and expanding it, but not to somehow intimidate or some of give us

a signal to the united states that it is going to undermine it. security obligations on the mutual defense treaty because of closer economic relations which is present. joe biden has just wrapped up his asian visits during which he made a lot of lofty speeches and didn't hide his intention to build an economic block, an asian economic block against china. would it be fair to say that at this point the united states needs the philippines more than the philippines need? do. united states, you wouldn't hear washington admit that? ah, because on the other hand of pundits in washington would even say that this isn't a symmetrical relationship. with o as, and i want to say that about this country. you know, if those are the only country in the world whose inches are worth considering. right, right. but i do say that they saw that even the most pro western country in,

in southeast asia could be, could, could drift, could drift away. and all that enabled the us to somehow pay more attention to the region. but the skeptics in us are always saying that the u. s. is, is always like this, but it tends to say that, oh yes. where in asia you're very important, but they don't walk the walk. if you look at how they're that the funds that are coming in, where'd, where the money is going, it's not going to asia, even if their strategic competitor is in the region. and not somewhere in the middle east or, or. well, that leads me to my next question because i know that the country has just signed up to this new india pacific economic framework, which is supposed to be some sort of an alternative to china's felt and growth initiative. but unlike the chinese americans, you know, they, they, they're offering a lot of, again, love to speeches,

abide about values and what have you been very little in terms of material benefits, you know, preferential market access loans, infrastructure, what have you, everything that the chinese are ready to provide, what are the potential benefits of formula in this new us lat, economic grouping? because you mentioned before that there has always been this bifurcation of relying on the united states for the military support and on china for the economy support . now that you have signed up to these new economic, or even though it's very abstract, a grouping, would you have to sacrifice a some of your economic relationship, economic ties for beijing, under the terry administration. it's primary economic program is what we call an infrastructure program called build, build built. yes we, we just repeat, build 3 times. marcus junior has a pledge to continue this. and in fact, if it's a good pledge because only 10 percent of the b r,

i projects that links with our build build build program has been implemented. and this is because of the bureaucratic delays on the philippines side. more than on the chinese site. however, i do think that because they're still agreed need for infrastructure there still gaps. but at the moment the santa, if you would look at who really supports infrastructure programs in the philippines is aquila china. the u. s. is actually japan. so japan has been pouring in a lot of grants and aid and loans on infrastructure more than the united states and definitely more than china. so i do think that if this in the pacific economic framework will work, it must not be just purely seen as the u. s. boring in money in the region, but it would really need to be a bit more multi lateral on that. because at the n, as in countries like the philippines are very distrustful of being asked to choose between the us and china. so therefore, middle powers, like japan and others might become more palatable to,

to us in countries was afraid of being crushed by, by this 2 superpowers. are speaking about japan awhile present. biden was in japan, there was also a lot of talk about a hot conflict. similar to the one that's in russia and nato over ukraine, rafting in your part of the world. how high is, is, is a threat of that in your, you. well, did it before the russia king conflict, the flashpoint in southeast asia, in, in the south china sea and the east china c. as, as always been there, i can distinctly remember that the, the threat was in, in the korean peninsula, in taiwan, in the east china territorial. this is china, c territory dispute in the south china sea. 3rd part of this. so you have all these flash points and therefore on anything could, could happen if the tensions are not managed carefully. so therefore, i do think a lot of countries in us,

in including the philippines are very wary of this strategic competition. because in the and small states like the philippines and its neighbors in our psion are going to be victims in this chest game. but, oh, what exactly can you do on this from? because i'm for your heard present guidance. our latest announcement that the united states will intervene to defend taiwan militarily. and even though there are various interpretations of that of that statement, i'm sure it was taken with a lot of apprehension in your region, especially considering that the chinese navy, as we know, is larger than the american navy in those 2 navies come to class how far do you think it may go and how it may influence you? rem? yes. remember of all, darcy and countries only the philippine shares a maritime boundary with taiwan. so if a flash point conflict in taiwan will happen, of all the 10 us in countries, it is the philippines as that's going to be pulled in immediately. and therefore,

i think the filming interest here is to ensure that a cooler heads prevail to mobilize with other small countries in southeast asia, through the r c and framework. we know that i see and is significantly challenge as of today. but we need to make, i see and work in a looming conflict in the asia pacific region, particularly in the taiwan strait i. it's important that i see an use that's a platform convening platform for all these super powers middle powers and small powers to be able to use multi lateral channels and manage the tensions. because if not, i don't think it's in any interest of, of any country or stakeholder in the region for a conflict in the straight to happen any time soon. well, professor r v, i think it's pretty evident after the very tragic a experience of ukraine and the last thing this world needs is another war. anyway, we have to live there. thank you very much for your insights today. thank you for

this invitation and thank you for featuring the filters. and thank you for watching hope to see you next time on the worlds apart. ah. mm hm. so what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have. it's crazy confrontation, let it be an arms race is on offensive, very dramatic development. only personally and getting to resist. i don't see how that strategy will be successful, very critical time. time to sit down and talk with

likely in law at british and not only is it loaded but it is also locked. so one careless step, one careless push, this thing will open fire ok, look that ongoing gets to d. mind the as of all industrial area and mario poll, which was the at the center of financing in recent weeks between russian policies and hold up you praying unit. national is true. a breaking point in jerusalem's old city, a vine, and.