i think i had got it. that was yes. i see with great lisa. ah, ah ah hello and welcome to cross hawk where all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle . 3 and and 50th anniversary of peter. the great birth is june 9. he ruled from 168221725 founded the city of saint petersburg as russia's window to europe has his dream of russia being part of europe come to an end. at this point, the scenes very likely, ah cross

sucking russia and europe, i'm joined by my guest on laughlin in paris. he's a university lecture in history and political philosophy in saint petersburg. we have gilbert doctorow. he's an independent political analyst, an author, a memoirs of an ex pat manager in moscow during the 19 nineties and province we cross through vladimir goldstein. he is the chair of the department of slavic studies at brown university. our gentleman crossing rose in the fact that means he can jump any time he want. and i always appreciate, i want to ask you all 3. the same question. i'll start off with john. here is the window to europe that same p, that peter, the great envisioned, is it coming to a close? is it closed? yes, it's been slammed by europe or in russia throughout the last 1020 years has repeatedly said how much it wants to cooperate with the west, with europe in particular, of course, but even with the americans and are,

you know, the door has been slammed in its face or the window has been slammed in its face in a very, very fundamental way. as angular merkel used to remind people, even at the height of the cold war when there was a very acute ideological confrontation between communism and capitalism. economic relations continued between the soviet union and the west picture in the form of energy supplies. and as we all know, those have now been largely cut off. not yet the energy supplies, but are all other forms of economic corporation. and as we know, some countries are pushing for even the energy to go. and the reason why i say it's slammed and i think definitively, i mean nothing is ever definitive in history, but certainly for the medium and even long term is that this crisis occurs at the end of a, a 30 year period after the cold war, where relations have gone from cool to very cold, indeed, frozen from bad to worse. that 30 year period followed the cold war itself,

which had lasted for 4550 years. and the cold war followed. of course, the 2 world wars are, although russia and then the soviet union fought on the allied side in both those conflicts. they both were essentially what was fought between europe or at least central europe. in the case of the 1st world war and russia. it's often forgotten this. the point is often overlooked picky from a western perspective, because if you're british or french, you know about the trenches in the, on the western front. but the, the war on russia, for example, in 1914, the 1st declaration of war was i, austria against serbia. and the 2nd declaration of war on the 1st of august, 1914, was by germany against russia. so the focus of those 2 world wars and of course, even more so in the 2nd world war was between europe and russia. and as i say,

while the soviet union then from 41 to 45, was of course on the allied side that was a small parenthesis. and so in other words, if you look at it in the round, we've had no more than a 100 years of major and constant jubilant of not constant, but very, very largely constant geopolitical confrontation between europe generally and russia. and that is now come to a head with this, with this latest war in a way that few people for saw and in a way which i do indeed think is absolutely a fundamental and would be very, very difficult to read back from. i'd say very interesting and so it's kind of latter, meaning i would just given an extra caviar to what john was saying is that the, the current iteration of the window being slam shot is at the american's behest. i think it's important to point out making sure, okay, a vladimir and that same question to you. i mean, if i'm being prompt from the former soviet union now living in the west, you and i are very interesting couple because i'm an american living here. you are a former soviet citizen living there. ah, is this an end game here?

because it seems to me that the west is determined to my deny brush any access to europe. it's definitive and it could be last. it could last generations. go ahead, vladimir. i would agree with your a starting point that this is basically a united states game as it russia is in europe. and it's definitely like violent action. i as a slim in the door and the russians face in europe it's, i don't think it will last, if you look into integration and, and connections or wait to strong bud. united states is driving it, being away from you or of being away from, from russia. it's sort of in a once to maintain the status quo war which existed during the cold war and so on. in the united states was the leader united states, the globally man, you know, way in charge is man united states could germany, and they want to maintain it. but this is kind of impossible boys to have kind of

global things into her one country dominated. so they trying to, ah, kind of persist and preserve it while it's actually crumbling. but then it is one more exam that you either use in ukraine as a wedge to drive between europe and russia between germany and russia. and in are there so far they are, i would say they succeed in somewhat, but it's in over look, you know, it's very good to go back to be the, the great and see that certain things i, inevitable geography is a destiny and be the understood it and you know, european understand it, but i'm being a lot of europeans are still under this form of united states that we can do it. and as well. no, no, no, no, no, army or the, if the geography is destiny than the europeans should understand it. but they don't, and that is the problem here. it's got to gilbert. same questions. we have every one answering the same question. go ahead gilbert. well, i would say to the 1st if

you seem to be on the street here, you're actually at the risk who alone have other people. very nice people. they don't do listen to those calling. you'll hear an expression really that every 100 years. and so you're in the state in their heads just to rush and so we go back little further. then back it was. there was a bible legacy production here in saint petersburg. either it was the production or the same number. that is very much thinking people in this city, the city which is a great sound that was created precisely that you're hearing people do,

do recall the words. so i know that all of your was coming to russia and come to moscow for the sake of spoils. force and destruction of this country. ready so the, we get that experience is failure is very widespread. and also i don't think there is a crescent charles will last forever and certainly not last generation. i personally think of a 5 year timeline or send a returns a year and we're much to year to see if we changing these insane policies. as a consequence of the road back from your leadership is very good

experience. who you are starting as a source going down a whole right? because she governors create somebody ducks in a line to is to implement all the crew and restrictions these have not yet yielded low back. that comes, it will be, let me go back to john here. i mean, the conflict in ukraine will come to an end, i would predict sickly. at the end of this summer. another defeat for ukraine. ukraine doesn't want to negotiate. so the russians will dictate their terms, but john, nato will still exist and it will want, it's revenge. okay. many people are so focused on this here, which is important, obviously. but that's why we're doing this program because i think the implications of this conflict. if nato isn't d fanged and the in a gemini,

american hegemony doesn't come today, we're going to continue this. it will be the 1st ukranian war, john, go ahead. there's absolutely no doubt about that. and of course, as we all know, this current war is itself a response to what happened in 2014, on both sides, the, the, my dad, coo and then the annexation of crimea, and so on. or nato was rearming ukraine, as we all know from 2014 onwards, there was no doubt preparing an attack on the don barza this year and so on and so forth. so yes, all these things continue and were russia to achieve its aims. as i think she probably will this summer as you say, then of course nato will prepare. it's revenge. that's how international relations work. and i, and i think that's all the more certain to happen. because a while i agree with you completely about the americans being in the driving seat about this or the europeans are not only serve while they are servo,

but they are ideologically committed to this. yeah. when people like little or from the lion and so on, who, by the way, when she was appointed president of the european commission in 2019 promised a geopolitical commission, a geopolitical commission. when she was defense minister of germany. before that she promised to make the german army the biggest army in europe. these ideas, and by the way, a promise which i'll have shawls has repeated. germany is rearming and rearming in the sense of wanting to affirm itself ideologically as what europe is today, which is, as i've said many times before, including on this show post national host, christian post historical and so on. and russia is the ideological enemy. russia is by its very existence, the threat to the european ideology, because russia, of course is the opposite of all those things. and if one country can be seen to be doing the opposite of being post historical and post national and so on,

then that is a french to the ideology. because ideology cannot bear a counter ideology to exist a. so i did, i underestimate the role of the europeans, they are in this up to the next. and they want it for the same reasons because they are on the same ideological line. as, for example, the bike and administration in washington. all right, on that point gentlemen, we're going to go to a hard break and after that hard break, we'll continue our discussion on russia in europe. same with ah, ah, look forward to talking to you all. that technology should work for people. a robot must obey the orders given by human beings, accept where such order that conflict with the 1st law show your identification. we

should be very careful about artificial intelligence. at the point obviously is to great trust, rather than fear i would like to take on various jobs with artificial intelligence, real summoning with a robot must protect its own existence with with

ah, ah, so welcome back across stock were all things are considered. i'm purely built, remind you we're discussing russia and europe. ah, well, the worst thing about this program is that when you have 3 great gas, you have so little time. so i'm going to keep out of it. vladimir, pick up the discussion where we left off, go ahead. well, i think what we see here is what general, like, well known sort of concept of contradictions. there are a lot of contradictions. here is what we have is definitely some kind of european

elite which decided a long time ago to align themselves with united states and then follow them ideologically. they fought for follow them, you know, believe caitlin milligan and so on. but europe is definitely not a, a asthma lead. and the liter guess is they pretend to be their business interest. there are people interest. there is like some kind of ideology. so a list of things will enter into conflict. and, you know, people with the allies, they need, you know, excess of to rush to rush to the well, the russian sort of spiritual, well talk to a rational cultural well. so you know, they need to rush or to be involved in. so the fundamental issues like, you know, climate for example, for the more the very ideology of this kind of post, you know, that john referred to this kind of was more than, well, is a really contradictory things by itself. because what united states them driving a eulogy, a certain kind of equality, they keep one marine and same with marginalized groups in

a while. at the same time, they try and fully marginalize russia, giant country with a giant, you know, with people later, they misleading them. they don't allow travelling both ways, eliza, so ill sooner or later, even this ideal of that would realize that the, you cannot do that. this is just, you know, you can it with one hand, promote equality and you know, bringing in all you know, marginalized left out groups while the 2nd analyze it, the greatest biggest country, yet at least in size. so this, sooner or later, it will start thinking in what it monday european elite. and of course, definitely in my european well i to, sorry, john john, local. i disagree. i disagree to, but i want to get gilbert in here. i'm just going to come to the chase. i mean, europe needs russia far more than russia needs europe. can people understand that gilbert? well the, i think they may have several years and

you're getting because they had, you know what they were doing. very strange. no. no, nobody notices is really rivers. they don't have their own equipment anymore. it ended up birch stage, destroyed the industry domestically and had very little reserves. and very little to themselves said the american presence. and that is why they don't mind somebody i issue with the remarks about her seizure. there's some of the actually learning about germany. we are in germany, we arms the potential, you can be an independent force. whereas now is

germany to step out of mine. they say she has no song. therefore, we are going to turn your relation and your relations will be your and russia. things like a sort of the economic catastrophe. you're in a governess preparing by their 6 package of sanctions as to results your it would be painful or your to disappear as a consumer. well, what about the other way around gilbert? what about the other way around i think would be far worse for europe. europe would suffer far more. let me go to john here. i mean it's e. okay,

we have 6 packages of sanctions here. well, there's one big sanction rush. it can employ. turn off the taps in a, in a, in a nanosecond. turn it off. that's their sanction john. yeah, exactly. and you know, 11 does in a sense why it hasn't been deployed so far. but i, i think that the, for what i meant about what was left on the line and german rearmament. i didn't. i certainly don't want to suggest that germany wants to be a hedge, a monic in europe on its own terms, independently of the americans know it is of course as a, as part of this transatlantic alliance. but what i meant was that she, by saying this, by making the point about to do a political commission and rearming germany earlier when she was defense minister, i meant that she clearly was building up in her mind this idea of a confrontation with russia. because that's the only country again switch,

there would be any political commission and to go back to what ladyman said in the states. i, i don't think we can, i think we're beyond the point now where we can expect, for instance, german industry or european industry to correct the suicidal mistakes of european policy makers. i never thought i never believed that the not stream to gas pipeline would be would be suspended, as it has been. because i assumed that that was a matter of life and death. germany, well, it has now been suspended and don't forget that this is the suspension occurs. we all know this in the context of decor, well, yes, decades now of green policy, they're talking more and more about reducing c o 2 emissions and using hydrocarbons . this is almost a windfall for them is this southern russia crisis because they can start to implement that green policies. and we must never underestimate the power of ideology. you know, in 1917, you could have said, soviet communism doesn't make any economic sense. but it took 70 years,

it took many generations of all terrible damage inflicted on, on russia and on soviet society before these contradictions. which of course, are there, you talk about contradictions, vladimir? yes, they're there. but they can stay in place. these contradictions for nearly a century, while the economy of the country is concerned, suffer under these contradictions. contradictions don't necessarily collapse very quickly. and, you know, we see our crisis off the crisis in europe and not just the ukraine crisis, but also cove. it a monetary crisis of 20 o 8. these things are often as it were, responded to with decisions which in fact will lead to fall west crises down the line. but that doesn't stop these decisions from continuing to be taken. reality is not getting through at this point and that's what makes me so that's a mistake about the reality is coming through this all to use

a so is that the price leisure a minute or he is going to one year on $47.00. that is double the price list year, and it means that every household will pay some very bill when in order to agree or it will have a little consequence. zip with the sanity as e commerce of western europe as yet, it's just over people to ok. vladimir, i mean, given you know, the confiscation of russian assets and whatnot. and i mean, i don't, i'm not talking about yachts and stuff like that. i don't care about billionaires. i really don't. but our president has been sent to the west is not a reliable partner. they don't believe i in the rule of law anymore. and so,

i mean again, i don't see, i don't have any kind of historical attachment to this relationship here. i'm pragmatic. ok, and i'm not ideological. and so mixing up this ideology and then refuting you the are your basic principles, like the rule of law. i mean, why do you want to parlay with anyone like that, vladimir, you know, what would have to consider is that the time will be to the grade of was, europe was a kind of dominant force at least logically and so on. and he definitely wanted to turn toward europe, but there isn't like elephant in the room. you know, there is east, there is china, there is india. and eventually they'll be. so the alignment and that's what we're talking about. it's kind of a reality, this message what united states in, in europe is sending that they can seize the essays and so on. it's a dangerous one message, again saying that they can be used one country as a for the, brought to war, injures one china different. that gets united states one to accomplish through taiwan through hong kong. and so,

and so this is where i live in the different ball in the reality such that, ok, you know, you don't want to rush an oil fine, it can go, it can flow eastward. and then, you know, as, as gilbert says, you know, europeans will get a lesson and i am actually much more optimistic or. ready examples and john here and you know, leave that the dismantled and also doing and i remember when i was the, in the so just people saw that the soviet union will go on forever. but nevertheless, at that moment and i don't want to go. ready in this world history, there was sort of progressive moments issendeim, but at least you know, in the seventy's 8 is, it was a reason and so on the world that the whole thing is just meddling and we did it. you totally different country. so things are changing. so vladimir, did you like me? right? you're giving me hub, let me go to january. so you, given what you know, the, the, the thought that the soviet union would never come to the end communist will never come to. and so john, we do, we do have hope that the e, u and nato can come to an end. john, well, everything comes to an end, eventually,

absolutely in the politics. but i, as i say, i do not think that the end is in sight. or we've, we've seen the nato deciding to expand further in these last weeks, but there's still a lot of left, a life left in the system. a manual michael has just been reelected in france. even though there's very little support for him. the system continues to, to, to prosper. and of course, i'm aware of the rising energy prices, and of course i think the sanctions are suicidal. but i have thought that policy decisions going back more than 10 years was suicidal i think wanted to piecing is suicidal. but it's part of the program at davos. so last week they talked about how they would be a significant reductions in or in the standard of living all over the world because of the climate crisis and, and because of the response to it,

that's part of the program. so if people have to pay more for their a fuel oil that suits thee a green agenda, fine. and the green a gender is what dominates europe and america at the moment. so that's why i'm afraid i of course, i wish reality would break in. but well, i don't see any splendid john, we're rapidly running out of time. but all of these people, the davos law ghouls, you know, i'm, they have all these great ideas, but they'll never suffer as a result of their own ideas. all right? as all the time we have jell, my want to thank my gets and parents, province and in st. petersburg, and want to thank our viewers for watching us here. darcy see you next time? remember grossbach rules long when i was sure thing wrong when i

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you. we were violent towards those people because we believe that were the superior race. we were here 1st and this is our pantry, guns, ammo, still tow doc martens, tattooing violence just just prerequisite to enter or exit 3 walked off like i could see this looking to face about the fear like he feared me being part of that movement. i got to feel a sense of power. when i felt powerless, i got attention when i felt invisible and accepted when i felt that we had a strategy, we wanted to clean our image up and make our message more palatable to the masses. don't get tattoos don't shape your head, don't get arrested. go to college, join the military, keep your head down, go mainstream.