[000:00:00;00] ah ah ah ah ah hello and welcome to cross hoc were all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle. the 3 and and 50th anniversary of peter, the greats. birth is june 9. he ruled from 168221725 founded the city of saint petersburg as russia's window to europe. has his dream of russia being part of

europe come to an end. at this point, this seems very likely, ah cross sucking russia and europe, i'm joined by my guest on laughlin in paris. he is a university lecture in history and political philosophy in st. petersburg. we have gilbert doctorow. he's an independent political analyst, an author, a memoirs of an ex pat manager in moscow during the 19 nineties and in province we cross through latimer goldstein. he is the chair of the department of slavic studies at brown university. i joan in cross roads and the fact that means you can jump anytime you want. and i always appreciate, i wanna ask you all 3. the same question. i'll start off with john. here is the window to europe that same p a that peter, the great envisioned, is it coming to a close? is it closed? yes, it's been slammed by europe or in russia throughout the last 1020

years has repeatedly said how much it wants to corporate with the west, with europe in particular of course, but even with the americans and are, you know, the door has been slammed in its face or the window has been slammed in its face or in a very, very fundamental way. as angular merkel used to remind people, even at the height of the cold war when there was a very acute ideological confrontation between communism and capitalism. economic relations continued between the soviet union and the west pick in the form of energy supplies. and as we all know, those have now been largely cut off. not yet the energy supplies, but are all other forms of economic corporation. and as we know, some countries are pushing for even the energy to go. and the reason why i say it's slammed and i think definitively, i mean nothing is ever definitive in history,

but certainly for the medium and even long term is that this crisis occurs at the end of a, a 30 year period after the cold war, where relations have gone from cool to very cold, indeed, frozen from bad to worse. that 30 year period followed the cold war itself, which had lasted for 4550 years. and the cold war followed. of course, the 2 world wars are, although russia and then the soviet union fought on the allied side in both those conflicts. they both were essentially what was fought between europe or at least central europe. in the case of the 1st world war and russia. it's often forgotten, this point is often overlooked picky from western perspective, because if your british or french, you know about the trenches in the, on the western front, but the, the war on russia, for example, in 1914, the, the 1st declaration of war was i, austria, against serbia and the 2nd declaration of war on the 1st of august,

1914 was by germany against russia. so the focus of those 2 world wars, and of course, even more so in the 2nd world war was between europe and russia. and as i say, while the soviet union then from 41 to 45, was of course on the allied side that was a small parenthesis. and so in other words, if you look at it in the round, we've had no more than a 100 years of major and constant jubilant of not constant, but very, very largely constant geopolitical confrontation between europe generally and russia. and that is now come to a head with this, with this latest war in a way that few people for saw and in a way which i do indeed think is absolutely a fundamental and would be very, very difficult to rope actual. i'd say it's very interesting and so it's got to flatter me, i would just given an extra caviar to what john was saying is that the, the current iteration of the window being slammed shut is at the american's behest . i think it's important to point out make or okay, a vladimir. and that same question to you. i mean,

if i'm being pumped from the former soviet union now living in the west, you and i are very interesting couple because i'm an american living here. you are a former soviet citizen living there. ah, is this an end game here? because it seems to me that the west is determined to my deny russia any access to europe. it's definitive and it could be last. it could last generations. go ahead, vladimir. i would agree with the starting point that this is basically a united states game as that russia is in europe, and it's definitely like violent action as a slim in the door and the russians face in europe. it's, i don't think it will last, if you look into integration and, and connections or wait to strong bud. united states is driving it being away from you or being away from, from russia. it's sort of in a once to maintain the status quo,

which existed during the cold war and so on. in the united states was the leader united states. the globally mand away in charge is men united states could germany, and they want to maintain it. but this is kind of impossible boys to have kind of global things into her one country dominated. so they trying to are kind of persists and, and preserve it while it's actually crumbling. but then it is one more example that you either use in ukraine as a wedge to drive between europe and russia between germany and russia. and you know, they are so far they, i would say they succeed in somewhat by the, it's in our look, you know, it's very good to go back to be the, the great and see that certain things i, inevitable geography is a destiny and be the understood it, and you know, european understand it, but i'm being a lot of europeans are still under this form of united states that we can do it as well. no, no, no, no, no, army or the if,

if the geography is destiny than the europeans should understand it, but they don't. and that is the problem here. it's got to gilbert. same questions. we have everyone answering the same question. go ahead gilbert. well, i would say the 1st if you seem to be on the street here, this is your, it's actually who alone have the right to other people. a very nice people. they don't do listen to those who are calling you hear an expression really that every 100 years in your state in their heads it is to i rush and so we go back little further then then you go back to it was there was a the bible legacy production here in st. petersburg. it was

the production or the state is very much thinking of people in this city. the cities is great and was created to be precisely that you're here, people do the words. so i know that all of your was coming to russia and coming to moscow for the sake of spoils force and destruction of this country. so the, we get that experience here is very widespread. and also i don't think there is a crescent troubles will last forever and certainly not last generations. i personally think of a 5 year or send a returns a year. and we're much to,

we're to see if we thinking of these insane policies as a consequence of the role back from your leadership is very been experience who you are starting as a source going down a whole right? because governance creed actually ducks in line to is to implement or the crew and suited restrictions. these have not yet yielded low back agenda. when that comes, it will be flexion. but you know, me go back to john here. i mean, the conflict in ukraine will come to an end, i would predict sickly at the end of this summer. another defeat for ukraine, ukraine doesn't want to negotiate. so the russians will dictate their terms. but

john, nato will still exist and it will want its revenge. okay. i mean, people are so focused on this here, which is important obviously. but that's why we're doing this program because i think the implications of this conflict. if nato isn't d fanged in the, in a gemini american hegemony doesn't come today, we're going to continue this. it will be the 1st ukranian war, john, go ahead. there's absolutely no doubt about that. and of course, as we all know, this current war is itself a response to what happened in 2014, on both sides, the, the, my dad, coo and then the annexation of crimea, and so on. or nato was rearming ukraine, as we all know from 2014 onwards, there was no doubt preparing an attack on the don barza this year and so on and so forth. so yes, all these things continue and were russia to achieve its aims. as i think she probably will this summer as you say, then of course nato will prepare. it's revenge. that's how international relations

work. and i, and i think that's all the more certain to happen. because a while i agree with you completely about the americans being in the driving seat about this or the europeans are not only serve while they are servo, but they are ideologically committed to this. yeah. when people like ursula from the lion and so on, who, by the way, when she was appointed president of the european commission in 2019 promised a geopolitical commission, a geopolitical commission. when she was defense minister of germany. before that she promised to make the german army the biggest army in europe. these ideas, and by the way, a promise which olive shells has repeated germany is rearming and rearming in the sense of wanting to affirm itself ideologically as what europe is today, which is, as i've said many times before, including on this show post national. i was christian, post historical and so on,

and russia is the ideological enemy. russia is by its very existence, the threat to the european ideology. because russia, of course, is the opposite of all those things. and if one country can be seen to be doing the opposite of being post historical and post national and so on, then that is a french to the ideology because ideology cannot bear a counter ideology to exist a. so i did, i mention very underestimate the role of the europeans, they are in this up to the next. and they want it for the same reasons because they are on the same ideological line. as for example, if i can administration in washington, all right, on that point gentlemen, we're going to go to a hard break. and after that hard break, we'll continue our discussion on russia in europe. stay with ah ah, in the lease of canter,

russian state will never. i've stayed as i'm phoning or slam. steve asked me, i'm not getting all sunset for a group in the 55 when. okay, so mine is gonna be the one else with will ban in the european union, the kremlin. yup. machines. the state aren't russia today and spoke ortiz spoke neck, given our video agency, roughly all band on youtube and pinterest, and with me,

ah lou to no one. no, sir. no, no. hon. julio luna will go more shrill than what they should end up unit $73.00. 1 was a unique organization in the history of the world. what they were trying to do was to simply do nothing short and then build the most powerful and most deadly biological weapons program that the world had ever. no real good, you know, took production with it. so it gives you or sure good did that. they're not eligible. no new son, new rochelle. he one more mom, but she knew margaret thought this meant new against them all. one of i've been there and i've got over much sale. i got your name. i got on monday. i wish to know

about julie whole new i know you didn't oh gosh one more polish dinner, jr. let's i had to put on with their mother and all your body build garage door couched nice. oh boy. good to go on. what on this the wow. she, my and new other. i'm all i can send more on all 7 more. good, so you don't the year you're not on or put them out, that they keep us together. any welcome back. across stock, were all things are considered. i'm purely beltran manager, were discussing russia and europe. well, the worst thing about this program is that when you have 3 great gas, you have so little time. so i'm going to keep out a bit. vladimir,

pick up the discussion where we left off, go ahead. well, i think what we see here is what general, like, well known. so the concept of contradictions are a lot of contradictions. here is what we have is definitely some kind of european elite which decided long time ago to align themselves with united states and then follow them ideologically. they fought for follow them, you know, believe caitlin milligan and so on. but europe is definitely not a, a s, one, the lead one, the leach against is they pretend to be that a business interest. there are people interest. there is like some kind of ideology . so this things will enter into conflict. and, you know, people with the allies, they need, you know, excess of to rush to rush to the wells, to ration sort of speech or well through araselis cultural well. so you know, they need the roster to be involved in. so the fundamental issues like in applying, for example, for them on the very ideology of this kind of pause. you know, you know that john referred to this, but it was more than well is

a very contradictory things by itself. because what united states them driving a eulogy is sort of a kind of equality. they keep one marine and say we have materialized groups in a while. at the same time, they try and fully marginalized russia, giant country with a j, a with people later, there was a mistake in them. they don't allow travelling both ways. and this is so ill, sooner or later. even this ideal of that would realize that the, you cannot do that, this is just, you know, you get it with one hand, promote equality and you know, bring in in all, you know, marginalized left are groups. while the 2nd i'm generalizing the greatest biggest country, at least in size. so this sooner or later it will start thinking in what it monday european elite in. of course, definitely my european brown. i to saw john john laughlin disagree. i disagree too, but i want to get gilbert in here. i'm just going to come to the chase. i mean,

europe needs russia far more than russia needs europe. can people understand that gilbert? well, the, i think they may have nurse in europe because they have, you know, where they were very strange. no, no, no united states is really where they don't have their own equipment anymore. and the numbers states destroyed the industry domestically and had very little the germans and very little to say the american presence. and that is why they don't mind somebody i issue the seizure. there's some of the actually learning about

germany. we are in germany. we arms that potentially can be an independent force, whereas now it is possible germany to step out of mine has no. so therefore we are turning point many turn in your relation and your be your and russia. things in the back of the economic catastrophe. we're in a governess preparing by their 6 package of sanctions as to results the russian need your course. it would be painful for your to disappear as

a consumer. what about the other way around gilbert? what about the other way around? i think would be far worse for a europe. europe would suffer far more. let me go to john here. i mean, it's okay we have 6 packages of of sanctions here. well, there's one big sanction. russia can employ, turn off the taps in a, in a, in a nanosecond. turn it off. that's there. sanction john. yeah, exactly. and you know, one wonders in a sense why it hasn't been deployed so far. but i, i think that the, for what i meant about what was left on the line and german rearmament. i didn't. i certainly don't want to suggest that germany wants to be a hedge, a monic in europe on its own terms independently. if the americans know it is, of course, as a, as part of this transatlantic alliance. but what i meant was that she, by saying this,

by making the point about the geopolitical commission and roman germany earlier when she was defense minister, i meant that she clearly was building up in her mind this idea of a confrontation with russia. because that's the only country again switch, there would be any geopolitical commission and to go back to what latimer said in the states i, i don't think we can, i think we're beyond the point now where we can expect, for instance, german industry or european industry to correct, the suicidal mistakes of european policy makers. i never thought i never believed that the not stream to gas pipeline would be what would be suspended as it has been, because i assumed that that was a natural life and germany. well, it has now been suspended. and don't forget that this is the suspension occurs. we all know this in the context of decor, well, yes, decades now of green policy, they're talking more and more about reducing c o 2 emissions and using hydrocarbons . this is almost

a windfall for the southern russia crisis because they can start to implement that green policies. and we must never underestimate the power of ideology. and in 1017, you could have said, soviet communism doesn't make any economic sense, but it took 70 years. it took many generations of, o, terrible damage inflicted on, on russia and on soviet society before these contradictions. which of course, are there, you talk about contradictions, vladimir? yes, they're there that they can stay in place, these contradictions for nearly a century. while the economy of the country's concerns suffer under these contradictions. contradictions don't necessarily collapse very quickly. and again, we see our crisis off the crisis in europe and not just the ukraine crisis, but also cove. it the monetary process of 20 o 8. these things are often, i think we're responding to with decisions, which in fact will lead to fall west crisis down the line. but that doesn't stop

these decisions from continuing to be taken. reality is not getting through at this point and that's what makes me so as a mistake about, the reality is coming through this. all today's a shows that the price leisure measures are he is going to one year on $47.00. that is double the price. last year, and it means that every household will raise on her bill when in order to go and read or will have a little consequence. zip. well that the 70 s e 's are as yet it's just for people to do. ok. vladimir. i mean, given, you know, the confiscation of russian assets and whatnot. i mean, i don't,

i'm not talking about yachts and stuff like that. i don't care about billionaires. i really don't. but our president has been sent to the west is not a reliable partner. they don't believe in the rule of law anymore it's, i mean, again, i don't see, i don't have any kind of historical attachment to this relationship here. i'm pragmatic. ok, and i'm not ideological. and so mixing up this ideology and then refuting you the, your basic principles like the rule of law. i mean, why do you want to parlay with anyone like that, vladimir, you know, what we'll have to consider is that the time of peter, the great of was, europe was a good of dominant force at least logically and so on. and he definitely wanted to turn toward europe, but there isn't like elephant in the room. you know, there is east, there is china, there is india. and eventually they'll be. so the alignment and that's what we're talking about. it's kind of a reality, this message what united states in europe is sending, that they can seize the essays and so on. it's

a dangerous one message again saying that they can use one country as a for the broke to war. it's a little dangerous one. china difference, it gets with united states one to accomplish through taiwan through so, hong kong and so on. so this is where i live in the different ball and the reality is such that, ok, you know, you don't want to rush an oil fine, it can go, it can flow eastward. and then, you know, as, as gilbert says, you know, europeans will get a lesson and i'm actually much more optimistic resembles, and john hammond in a live that the dismantled and also doing. and i remember when i was the in just people saw that the soviet union will go on forever. but nevertheless, at that moment and i don't want to go. ready in the soviet history, there was sort of progressive moments isn't died, but at least you know, and so, and is 8 is it was a reason, as i know in the world that the whole thing is just meddling and we did it. you've totally different country. so things are changing. so vladimir, did you like me?

right? you're giving me hub, let me go to general. so you, given what you know, the, the, the thought that the soviet union would never come to the end communist will never come to. and so, john, we do, we do have hope that the, you and nato can come to an end. john, well, everything comes to an end, eventually, absolutely, in politics. but i, as i say, i do not think that the end is in sight. or we've, we've seen the nato deciding to expand further in these last weeks, but there's still a lot of left life left in the system. a manual mccoy has just been reelected in france. even though there's very little support for him. the system continues to, to, to prosper. and of course, i'm aware of the rising energy prices, and of course i think the sanctions are suicidal. but i've thought that policy decisions going back more than 10 years was suicidal i think wanted to piecing is

suicidal. but it's part of the program at devil. so last week they talked about how they would be a significant reductions in or in the standard of living all over the world because of the climate crisis and, and because of the response to it, that's part of the program. so if people have to pay more for their a fuel oil that suits thee a green agenda, fine. and the green a gender is what dominates europe and america at the moment. so that's why i'm afraid i of course, i wish reality would break in. but well, i don't see any splendid john, we're rapidly running out of time. but all of these people, the davos law ghouls, you know, i'm, they have all these great ideas, but they'll never suffer as a result of their own ideas. all right? as all the time we have jell, my want to thank my gets in paris, province and in saint petersburg. i want to thank our viewers for watching us here . darcy. see you next time? remember grossbach rules? ah

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