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ah hello and welcome to cross out. were all things considered? i'm peter labelle, is widely recognized that the global economy is weakening. there are many reasons for this inflation supply chain issues, high levels of debt, the conflict in ukraine, and the wes appetite for sanctions. on this addition of the program, we discuss how all these issues are changing the structure of the global economy. ah, crossing the global economy, i'm joined by my guess, mich fire scene in new york. he is an investor in author of the book planet pansy here in moscow. we have yourself, lisa bullock. he's a program director at the vall, by discussion club, and in beijing we cross andy mock. he is a senior research fellow at the center for china and globalization part gentleman crosstalk rules, and the fact that means you can jump in any time you want. and i always appreciate,

i want to ask all 3 of you question the same question right off the bat here. mitchell, go to you 1st here. oh it's, you know, it's widely described as a, a global recession is a foot here. but depending on who you ask, it's always kind of politicize blame game and pointing fingers. all 3 of you look at this professionally. so what is driving this global downturn go ahead, mich. well, thanks peter. this is it, it's not that complex a situation. and, you know, people are saying that we might be headed for a economic recession, but we're actually in an economic recession, as you know, the metric that there, that is being used is an outdated, backward looking metric. so we are in an economic recession and it can get much worse from where we are today. the problem is there's no truth in the media. you've got to dishonest media that doesn't report things in a sense or whatever they don't like. i mean,

we've seen this across the board now as far as what's caused this, we've had a decade over a decade of reckless central bank money. printing that has inflated grotesque asset bubbles in equities, fixed income property, and every asset class across the board, except the commodity markets. this has been compounded by the sanctions that you, that you mentioned a little while ago. what we have to think about is the way that things unfold. and right now, we're seeing a massive transition. the end of the petro dollar in the west, u. s. dot u. s. dollar had gemini, can, can easily collapse from here. we're, we're seeing. and if we look to history and we look at japan is the model they've had 3 last decades of floundering economic policy. and what you're seeing now is you're seeing an unraveling of what too much quantitative easily easing looks like . you've seen the japanese yen drop,

23 percent sin in the past year. you've seen the british sterling dropped 12 percent since the end of last year. so what you're seeing is a precipitous decline in currency values while you're seeing 20 percent inflation across the board, which is a vis rate in the consumers. so we are recession and it will probably more into depression. and what's happened with the sanctions that have never worked is you have the u. s. dollar is going to right now, it's strengthening, but, but a conjunction a bunch of a countries that has gotten together because it's not just united states versus russia as the propaganda has it. it's russia, china, india, iran, saudi arabia, u e, and a bunch of other countries that are going to d dollar eisen go on on a quadratic gold standard, which is moving in the direction that we're headed in. it probably wouldn't be a bad idea yet. so let me ask you more or less the same question here, but, you know, mitch did a really good job in answering that. how is it structurally changing the global

economy because we deem it dollarization has been mentioned here. i'm outside asset prices, which we've been watching, quantitative easing. how is that changing? and because i don't want to focus his program on sanctions, exclusively, what i want to talk about how the global economy is changing and to who is advantage actually go ahead get us off. well, 1st of all, i would agree that the detonator to a significant degree of the recessionary fears and recessionary risks that were saying now has to do with the excess of monetary stimulus undertaken primarily by advanced economies. and then there's, of course, the legacy of and balances that we've had in the preceding that hayes against a significant degree concentrated and the advanced world. and then on top of this, you have the triggers that have to do with a significant rise and geopolitical. ready risks and the energy problems and energy

and balances. a lot of the countries are facing today. but in terms of the transition to a new system, i think we are advancing to a different economic system that has to do with a different pattern of trade flows. investment flows have different geography if you will. i think we will see a grow way, role of asia, 1st of all, and i think asia will be probably one of the beneficiaries of the changes that we're likely to see in this economic system. and i think we're more generally, we're likely to see a greater role for the global south for the developing world. especially for the developing countries under take measures to open their markets to each other and build platforms for integration,

which to significant degree. they're already starting to do, and i think of course, other aspects of this new world that we're likely to see is alternatives. more alternate service in terms of payment systems, in terms of national currency being more intensively used at the expense of the very high degree of dollarization that is still out there, but i think it is set to decline. and we're already seeing the shifts associated with a greater use of national currency. so all these trans, i think will be fundamental, will be long term. and it's a significant degree. they're already starting to be observed. you know, andy or the interesting thing, you know, everybody looks at, you know, china is the engine, the, the global economy as far as manufacturing and exports. but, you know, i mean, it must be very curious from the perspective of beijing looking at the europeans, essentially isolate themselves from the global economy by cutting off all their

trade ties with russia. i mean, this is self induced. i mean, you know, there's a lot, you know, coming out of cove id supply chains. you know, everybody gets that, but we see a and you cannot make block intentionally limiting its prospects. i mean, it's really quite peculiar. go ahead handy. well, let me start with this idea that this economic crisis, whether it's a recession, a depression, or something else entirely like success has many fathers, as we've heard from the 2 previous speakers. what i do want to elaborate on a bit with this 1st peter, is that the structural changes that are under way or largely driven as we're moving from a unit whole world to at least a bipolar, if not a mold or one. and a lot of the roots of what we're seeing now, i think can be attributed to this. um,

if we look it up, you know this fragmentation, i'm a little bit less sure. this is happening to professor was a bullet point that we're witnessing the rise of the global staff look at the regional comprehensive economic partnership that includes the countries of ozzy on china or japan and north korea that covers a 3rd of the global population. currently a 3rd of global gdp, which is expected to rise to 50 percent of global g d p. by 2050, we're seeing regional blocks. i believe the term that i've heard festival symbolic use is platforms and europe i think, is undergoing, ah, this attempted a separation decoupling from russia. but i think the practical realities of, and it's going to be very, very difficult in, frankly, ah, the europeans have

a much greater affinity for russia than they do the united states. and i think this fost in bargain if we will. of course, what we're to order of keeping the u. s. in russia, keeping the u. s. in germany down and russia out really is crumbling and we may be, or on the, or at the beginning of a new reordering, you know, whether that's a new security architecture in europe. ah, to a re, a reconfiguration of the entire global system. there's a lot to be pessimistic about, but i think also we're major changes on the way that many grossey. i'm out, major change in major changes him mich. let me go back to you here. but i mean, the thing that i look i, i agree with everything we've heard here, but in the, the west seems to think it's still in the driver's seat. and i think that that's something that they, if it's not particularly relevant any more,

i mean it cutting off trade ties are reordering, energy ties and things like that. is that very easy to do. and it, particularly if you do it in a way that it impacts you negatively where you know that this is the, you know, to answer andes for issue. this is ideologically driven, this is not common sense driven. mitch go ahead. i mean, this is a, it's authoritarian creek is what it is. and you know, we have to do once again, it comes back to what is the truth. i mean, look at what happened in afghanistan. that was a train wreck. was anybody held accountable? no, no one was held accountable. you know, look, there's 20 percent inflation out there now, or it's even higher than that. they're using the basis for calculation. you know, they're saying the worst and 40 years. if you, if you use the actual basis, the methodology behind the calculations that they changed, you know, you're up around 20 percent right now. so that's significant that kills that and stifles that consumer in the west oil prices are significantly higher. and this is

part of a self green new deal in america that couldn't be passed by legislating it yet, so they're doing it behind people's backs by with the executive orders. and the same thing is happening in the u. k with net 0. so what they're doing is shooting themselves in the foot and they're making out, you know, russia to be the bogeyman and saying it's hooton's price high. but if you look at an oil chart, a crude oil chart, which is you know, and if you look at a crude oil chart going back to in a bind declared war after his election on fossil fuels. you'll see that before the ukraine war, crude oil prices were up to 100 percent. so this precipitous rise in crude oil prices has impacted the markets and impacted costs of everything because diesel fuel is at all time highs. the shortage of jet fuel. and that's why 7000 flights over the last holiday weekend were cancelled. but nobody wants to talk about that. you know, what is the time? and it's really amazing because i mean,

in this structural problems within the western economies don't want. they don't want to address it, they want to blame russia, blaine, china, blame the saudis by opec. that's what we always get here. that's why we're doing this program gentlemen, i'm going to jump in here. we have to go to a hard break. and after that hard break, we'll continue our discussion on the global economy. stay with ah ah, for the 1st time in history, an entire country's culture has been canceled to the very modern weapon. cancel culture. daily data will sheffield my last will. when will you get just me sitting there with the phrase now, particularly 1st to counseling russian culture, yet the know what to create the fuel. because if you, when you're my fuel, which will be all that is chilling, mozilla, that go with them. most of the temperature random

e. normally what russia is created over the past 1500 years, there's no question. partially condemned, reviled, and rejected. to sort of like a bullet brown. there's a lot closer on a whole bunch. thank you said a little short list. joining total condemnation, gross daily, and now include does dance go to costco, shostakovich that i need to you all left, but yes, she says that what i just feel that i'm will you do obama lee? you're not gonna do that a lot. ah, look forward to talking to you all that technology should work for people. a

robot must obey the orders given by human beings, accept where such orders at conflict with the 1st law show your identification. we should be very careful about our personal intelligence, and the point obviously, is to create trust rather than fear. and with artificial intelligence. real, somebody with obama protect its own existence with ah, welcome back to cross hock where all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle trim and you were discussing the global economy with

okay, let's go back to yourself. you're a russian, you're an economist, you live in moscow. so i keep hearing about the state of the russian economy from western media. i would like, you know, specifically, what is the state of the russian economy and what are its prospects and i'm talking about risks and growth projections of growth. go ahead. well basically i think her, the dire forecasts of a major plunge in the room will major spike in inflation and the separate as the klein and g d p. um they're, they're not going to pass. and i think if you look at the past, the weeks and months, lease forecasts of will become far less dire. so if you look at the rubel, the rubel is significantly stronger than where it was before there's geopolitical

shock and it's relatively stable at those levels. if you look at them, lation, obviously there was initial, an initial shock and initial increase, but then we're seeing a significant diesel ation. and basically in recent weeks we're see inflation that is close to 0. there was even a brief period of deflation. and then a, if you look at the other key indicators, searches, trade surplus, budget surplus. basically russia is running twin surpluses. obviously, a higher oil prices provide substantial support. but overall, the macro economic policy framework is such that the economy was rendered far more immune than was previously thought with regard to the significance restrictions and shocks. so overall, i think that the,

the expectations are improving. also with regard to russia's g d p trajectory, and i think going forward, we're likely to see that the russian economy will adapt the decline this year in terms of g will be there, maybe on the or 5 to 6 percent, but could be even less in case the external conditions improve in case further we see continue the emphasis on macroeconomic stability. andy, one of the lessons china is drawing from all of this because again, you know, europe is, is making political, ideological decisions about its future. i think quite foolishly, to be honest with you, but i mean, you know, china has to see what's going on in the world. and we've all discussing how creating relations are changing. and you know, what are the main lessons you think that debate beijing leadership is taking from

europe? so i would say very talis decision making. go ahead. well, i think china is troy, does 2 sets of lessons from this. i think the immediate one is that is position i regarding the training concept was correct, which is that all side should resolve to settle their differences a peacefully by the u. s. in looking to a cajole strong arm to find in other countries and condemning russia. i really looks like this is backfiring on the united states. i've written that said the u. s . is engaging in some rewards against russia, the proxy shadow military war in the ukraine and economic war and a propaganda war. and one lesson than i think is china's a decision to encourage a peaceful settlement of this is correct. the larger geopolitical us, i think, is this again, ah,

looking for conflict really is destructive and self destructive. and the biden administration's framing of its, ah, geopolitical objectives as a fight of democracies against autocracies, i think is really, again backfiring because the lesson here that is the, the biden administration was looking to administer a, is that this is what happens when you engage in behavior. that the world of democracy is does not white. and therefore other countries that fall into this camp judge high in other countries around the world, ah, should take heed. and i think in fact the opposite conclusions are being drawn now . and i think this is very ironic that these are the, the lessons that i think can be drawn from what's going on in ukraine. emitter is one of the most them, the common denominator here. it's all about energy really now you, you've already,

i'll discuss how this is a back door to the green new deal. i agree with you here because no the, if you put it to the, the voters, they won't vote for it. okay, so this is a back door here, but i mean it's a lose lose proposition because it isn't going to work. and then you're not going to have energy. i mean that you, you, you lose on both sides, mit. yeah, i mean there are a lot of issues here. i mean, i mean, i agree to any other people on the call here that the, you know, look, you've got an autocracy in america, you don't know who's really pulling the strings. you've got a demented president. you know, and nobody wants to talk about that because you're not allowed to say that. you know, you've got authoritarian creep. you've got lack of due process and enforcement of the rule of law, which is a big problem in america. and you know, it's just winding people up to create division and tribalism. but you know, as you're saying with the green deal, what's happening is the federal reserve is still nobody wants to talk about this either. they're doing quantitative easing. they're buying $120000000000.00 worth of bonds per month, and that's supposed to stop this month. but as i famously said,

you can never taper ponzi scheme. so the nasdaq, as a result, has dropped 35 percent from its peak. so, and that's without them dropping the bond by so you've got a lot of debt out there on the market that needs to be refinanced and you've got the most incompetent person on the planet, in the form of janet yellen who created this mess when she was at the federal reserve for nearly 2 decades, it has been moved over to run the treasury. she has no clue at what she's doing. remember, she's told us for years and inflation is transitory. and i've been warning for years that if you keep printing money, eventually what you're going to do is create inflation, hyperinflation and a economic su nami, which is what you saw in japan. that's now japan has been doing it for 30 years. and japan's. the 1st tip of the iceberg to get hit, but it's happening in the west and it's going to get a lot worse. and people need to really,

you could see $250.00 to $300.00 oil or even higher, and that will kill the western economies. it will kill the global economy as well. and i don't think that's out of the question. i don't think people are preparing for it. however, look, this is not all doom and gloom. i think that there's going to be massive amounts of opportunity when you know you get valuations coming back to normality because the valuations are some of these nasdaq's zombie companies. that the q e has enabled by the reckless policies of the profit govern government. and the central banks, when, when these get washed out, you're going to see a massive amount of defaults. and there's going to be opportunities to buy prime assets at highly discounted prices for those who are highly geared. and i think that that's the problem. they've allowed too much debt credit and leverage to talk about it in my book to get out of hand. and it's got to come back to every, every market when it gets out of hand. and i've seen this happen many times. this

is just a replay of what we've seen many times before, but you need people that understand how to take advantage of these markets. and that's what i do for a living. so, you know, i've seen that happen before, and this is an old playbook and you've got to have truth resurrected as well. you can't have the ministry of truth that biden still has running even though that crazy women, nina jackowitz, or whatever her name is. they said, oh, well, she's been sidelined that program is still going, it's alive and well and that's a danger. that's the danger to democracy. well, i know i'm a, you know, i know what it means that when, when they attack what they call this information. okay. 17 years of hard growing disappeared for me. i failed. ok. they're, they're trying, but they're not going to succeed. you know, so let me go back to you. i see a silver lining in a lot of this. here. i ever since 2014, russia has been dealing with sanctions. and i think, you know, reorienting itself away from the west is the thing to do. we see so many because they let everything become political. and i think that, you know,

the import substitution, all these other things are a good thing and it will drive productivity. what your thoughts go ahead? yes, my sense is that i and these are a lot of things that are overdue, that are likely to be now expedited due to the events that we're seeing in port substitution as one. and certainly as there has been some success in some key areas like agriculture, we're in port substitution has worked on. and there are clearly that the key challenge that i see now is in the industrial sector, where i think a greater emphasis will be and needed with respect to building a value added shane's with partners from the regime union.

with china, with other countries from the global south. and generally, i think we're already seeing trends of greater diversification of russia's economy, rushes, trade, russia trades are being directed more towards asia towards the faster growing economies. and clearly there are significant opportunities there because these are the economies that are growing faster. and these are the economies that have the scope to reduce important barriers significantly that provides inter significant margin for a russian of producers for rushing exporters. and, and of course, there is a greater need for russia to diversify into asia and to explore markets there, as there are these restrictions coming from the west that said, that make it all the more important for russia to finally i have is,

i haven't sex boards directed towards the end of the let me know to let me jump in, give andy the last word here, live 45 seconds here. when it will, the global south have its own swift system because it a the, the west is abused. the west of the swift symptom. go ahead. well, i'd say keep an eye on what's happening with china's digital currency. it central bank, digital currency, what it calls the digital currency electronic payment. this is not only a new currency, it's actually a new system of payment that is a token into an entirely new world of relating with marty. whether you're a individual of a company or a government. and i think that we will be seeing this unfolding before our very eyes in the next several years. well can happen fast enough, i'm afraid, or i gentlemen, that's all the time we have fascinating discussion. i want to thank my get to new york, beijing and here in moscow. and thanks to our viewers for watching us here at archy,

see you next time. remember cross titles. ah, ah, with talking just look out for a muscle with noon. she kitty doesn't being an extension or a nurse to me as possible. my cook go sit suddenly, tim cut the rope to his ashley of a dizzy wanted to work with you. but now can i put the key for the chino to know for phones or something like that and then we'll go

with that with ah ah, for long i was sure seemed wrong when i just don't hold any new world yet to see how the thing becomes the african, an engagement, it was the trail. when so many find themselves worlds apart,

we choose to look for common ground. with ah, or headline stories this, our russian backed force is a curious ukraine of disrupting a key evacuation route from c ever done yet by violating us. these are within an hour of a company called so the head, little bit jealous of the green in president and his officials will have to negotiate with russia. we as europeans share one, continent and russia will remain part of it in a speech in front of nato troops. frances leader goes on to describe russia as a strong power called for key up to negotiate with moscow to reach with