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hello and welcome to cross out where all things are considered. i'm peter labelle, is widely recognized that the global economy is weakening. there are many reasons for this inflation supply chain issues, high levels of debt, the conflict in ukraine. and the wes appetite for sanctions on this addition of the program, we discuss how all these issues are changing the structure of the global economy with cross fucking the global economy. i'm joined by my guess, mich fire scene in new york. he is an investor in author of the book planet pansy here in moscow. we have yourself, lisa bullock. he's a program director at the vall, by discussion club, and in beijing we cross andy mock. he is a senior research fellow at the center for china and globalization general and cross up rules and effect. that means you can jump in any time you want. and i

always appreciate, i want to ask all 3 of you question. the same question right off the bat here, mitchell, go to you 1st here. oh it's, you know, it's widely described as a, a global recession is afoot here. but depending on who you ask, it's always kind of politicize blame game and pointing fingers. all 3 of you look at this professionally. so what is driving this global downturn go ahead, mich. all, thanks peter. this is it, it's not that complex a situation. and, you know, people are saying that we might be headed for a economic recession, but we're actually in an economic recession, as you know, the metric that there, that is being used is an outdated, backward looking metric. so we are in an economic recession and it can get much worse from where we are today. the problem is there is no truth in the media. you've got to dishonest media that doesn't report things in a sense or whatever they don't like. i mean, we've seen this across the board now as far as what caused this. we've had

a decade over a decade of reckless central bank money. printing that has inflated grotesque asset bubbles in equities, fixed income property, and every asset class across the board, except the commodity markets. this has been compounded by the sanctions that you, that you mentioned a little while ago. what we have to think about is the way that things unfold. and right now, we're seeing a massive transition. the end of the petro dollar in the west, u. s. dot u. s. dollar had gemini, can, can easily collapse from here. we're, we're seeing. and if we look to history and we look at japan is the model they've had 3 last decades of floundering economic policy. and what you're seeing now is you're seeing an unraveling of what too much quantitative easily easing looks like . you've seen the japanese yen drop 23 percent 2nd in the past year. you've seen the british sterling drop 12 percent since the end of

last year. so what you're seeing is a precipitous decline in currency values while you're seeing 20 percent inflation across the board, which is a vis rate in the consumers. so we are recession and it will probably more into a depression. and what's happened with the sanctions that have never worked is you have the u. s. dollar is going to right now, it's strengthening, but, but a conjunction a bunch of countries that have gotten together because it's not just the united states versus russia as the propaganda has it. it's russia, china, india, iran, saudi arabia, a and a bunch of other countries that are going to d dollar rise and go on on a quad like gold standard, which is moving in the direction that we're headed. it probably wouldn't be a bad idea yet. so let me ask you more or less the same question here, but you mentioned a really good job in answering and how is it structurally changing the global economy because we deem it dollarization has been mentioned here outside asset

prices, which we've been watching, quantitative easing and how is that changing, and because, you know, i don't want to focus this program on sanctions, exclusively. what i want to talk about how the global economy is changing and to who is advantage actually go ahead get us off. well, 1st of all, i would agree that so the detonator to a significant degree of the recession, re fears and recessionary risks that were saying now has to do with the excess of monitoring stimulus undertaken primarily by advanced economies. and then there's, of course, the legacy of imbalances that we've had in the preceding decades against a significant degree concentrated and the advanced world. and then on top of this, you have the triggers that have to do with a significant rise and geopolitical. ready risks and the energy problems and energy and balances. a lot of the countries are facing today. but in terms of the

transition to a new system, i think we are advancing to a different economic system that has to do with a different pattern of trade flows. investment flows have different geography if you will. i think we're, we will see a growing role of asia, 1st of all, and i think asia will be probably one of the, the beneficiaries of the changes that we're likely to see in this economic system. and i think we're more generally, we're likely to see a greater role for the global south for the developing world. especially further developing countries under take measures to open their markets to each other and build platforms for integration, which to significant degree. they're already starting to do, and i think of course,

other aspects of this new world that we're likely to see is alternatives. more alternate service in terms of payment systems, in terms of national currency being more intensively used at the expense of the very high degree of dollarization that is still out there, but i think it is set to decline. and we're already seeing the shifts associated with a greater use of national currency. so all these trans, i think will be fundamental, will be long term. and it's a significant degree. they're already starting to be observed. you know, andy or the interesting thing, you know, everybody looks at near china is the engine, the, the global economy as far as manufacturing and exports. but, you know, i mean, it must be very curious from the perspective of beijing looking at the europeans, essentially isolate themselves from the global economy by cutting off all their

trade ties with russia. i mean, this is self induced. i mean, you know, there's a lot, you know, coming out of coven supply chains. you know, everybody gets that, but we see a and you cannot make block intentionally limiting its prospects. i mean, it's really quite peculiar. go ahead handy. well, let me start with this idea that this economic crisis, whether it's a recession, a depression, or something else entirely like success as many fathers, as we've heard from the 2 previous speakers. what i do want to elaborate on a bit with this 1st peter, is that the structural changes that are underway or largely driven as we're moving from a unit whole world to at least a bipolar, if not a multi or one. and a lot of the roots of what we're seeing now, i think can be attributed to this. um, if we look it up, you know, this fragmentation, i'm

a little bit less sure. this is happening to a festival. so bullet point that we're witnessing the rise of the global south look at the regional comprehensive economic partnership that includes the countries of asi and china, of health and north korea. that covers a 3rd of the global population. currently a 3rd of global gp which is expected to rise to 50 percent of global g d p. by 2050, we're seeing regional blocks, i believe the term that i've heard vessels, abolla hughes platforms. and europe i think is undergoing, ah, this attempted a separation decoupling from russia. but i think the practical realities of it, it's going to be very, very difficult in frankly, ah, the europeans have a much greater affinity for russia than they do the united states. and i think

this fost you bargain if we will, of the post world war 2 order of keeping the u. s. in russia, of keeping the u. s. in germany down and russia out really is crumbling. and we may be, or on the, or at the beginning of a new reordering, you know, whether that's a new security architecture in europe or to a re, a reconfiguration of the entire global system. there's a lot to be pessimistic about, but i think also we're major changes on the way. gracie, i'm out. major change in major changes him mich, let me go back to you here. but i mean, the thing that i look i, i agree with everything we've heard here, but then the, the where seems to think it's still in the driver's seat. and i think that that's something that they, if it's not particularly relevant any more,

i mean it cutting off trade ties are reordering, energy ties and things like that. is that very easy to do. and, and it particularly if you do it in a way that it impacts you negatively where you know that this is the, you know, to answer andes for issue. this is ideologically driven, this is not common sense driven. mitch go ahead. i mean, this is a, it's authoritarian creek is what it is. and you know, we have to do once again, it comes back to what is the truth. i mean, look at what happened in afghanistan. that was a train wreck. was anybody held accountable? no, no one was held accountable. you know, look, there's 20 percent inflation out there now, or it's even higher than that. they're using the basis for calculation. you know, they're saying the worst and 40 years. if you, if you use the actual basis, the methodology behind the calculations that they changed, you know, you're up around 20 percent right now. so that's significant that kills and stifles that consumer in the west. oil prices are significantly higher. and this is part of

a self green new deal in america. they couldn't be passed by legislating it yet, so they're doing it behind people's backs by with the executive orders. and the same thing is happening in the u. k with net 0. so what they're doing is shooting themselves in the foot and they're making out, you know, rush, it'd be the buggy man and saying it's hooton's price high. but if you look at an oil chart, a crude oil chart, which is you know, and if you look at a crude oil chart going back to in a bind declared war after his election on fossil fuels. you'll see that before the ukraine war, crude oil prices were up to 100 percent. so this precipitous rise in crude oil prices has impacted the markets and impacted costs of everything because diesel fuel is that all time highs the shortage of jet fuel. and that's why 7000 flights over the last holiday weekend were cancelled. but nobody wants to talk about that. you know, what is the time? it's really amazing,

because i mean that structural problems within the western economies don't want. they don't want to address it. they want to blame russia, blaine, china, blame the saudis by opec. that's what we always get here. that's why we're doing this program gentlemen, i'm going to jump in here. we have to go to a hard break. and after that hard break, we'll continue our discussion on the global economy. stay with, ah, ah, today i'm authorized to additional strong sanctions. foreign companies quitting russia, a client atm card. so blanton bangs, disconnected from the international payment system. functional hoppey, jermel donna and euro exchange rates followed up when i trouble up or nickel, but more so. so carson would know what the committee met, that he woke up the pilgrim. that is the correct. can you say i don't know what you're seeing with him and russian business overcome this song? see?

yeah, i bought it to the nazi to huddle. she's tremendously just me don't pros voice, bullshit. national productive. not just 0 dash a miracle. what i see, i put themselves, but when you come, when you with that, what are you got any of your mind or just feed them out, but she's a cost to the group when you, when you been with the school. so usually look a little bit, you know, the motion with i am, my name is frank richardson, so dos you got in the movement in the age of 13 or 14,

we were violent towards those people because we believed that were in this race were here 1st and this is our country being part of that movement. i got a sense of power. when i felt powerless, we got attention when i felt invisible and accepted when i talked to level life after, hey, is an organization that was founded by for skin neo nazi white supremacist in the u. s. in canada. and they found each other and they knew that they wanted to help other guys get have is 2 parts to getting out of a violent extremist group. the 1st part is disengagement, which is where you leave the social groups. and then the next part is d. radicalization with belief systems ology are removed. it was very impactful. when someone finally came along with no fear of no judgement, she heard my stories did not seem to challenge with.

ah, welcome back to cross hock where all things are considered. i'm peter level to remind you we're discussing the global economy. ah, okay, let's go back to yourself. you're a russian, you're an economist, you live in moscow. so i keep hearing about the state of the russian economy from western media. i would like, you know, singly what is the state of the russian economy and what are its prospects when i'm talking about risks and grow projections of growth? go ahead. well basically i think her, the dire forecasts of a major plunge in the room will major spike in inflation and the separate as the klein and g p a they're, they're not coming to pass. and i think if you look at the past,

the weeks and months lease forecasts of will become far less dire. so if you look at the rubel, the rubel is significantly stronger than where it was before the geopolitical shock . and it's relatively stable at those levels. if you look at them, lation, obviously there was initial, an initial shock and initial increase, but then we're seeing a significant diesel ation. and basically in recent weeks where c inflation that is close to 0, it was even a brief period of deflation. and then a, if you look at other key indicators such as trade surplus, budget surplus, basically russia is running twin surpluses. obviously, higher world prices provide substantial support. but overall,

the macro economic policy framework is such that the economy was rendered far more immune than was previously thought with regard to the significance restrictions and shocks. so overall i think that the, the expectations are improving. also with regard to us as g d p. trajectory, and i think going forward, we're likely to see that the russian economy will adapt the decline this year in terms of gdp will be there may be on the or 5 to 6 percent, but could be even less in case the external conditions improve in case further, we see continued the emphasis on macroeconomic stability. andy, one of the lessons china is drawing from all of this because again, you know,

europe is, is making political idea, logical decisions about its future. i think quite foolishly, to be honest with you. but i mean, you know, china has to see what's going on in the world and we've all discussing how trading relations are changing. and you know, what are the main lessons you think that debate beijing leadership is taking from europe. so i would say very power decision making. go ahead. well, i think china is troy, does 2 sets of lessons from this. i think the medium one is that is position i regarding the training concept was correct, which is that all side should resolve to settle their differences a peacefully by the u. s. in looking to a cajole strong armed fine and other countries in the condemning russia. i really looks like this is back firey on the united states. i've written that said the u. s . is engaging in some rewards against russia,

the proxy shadow military war in the ukraine and economic war and a propaganda war. and one lesson than i think is china's a decision to encourage peaceful supplement of this is correct. the larger geopolitical us, i think, is this again, ah, looking for conflict really is destructive and self destructive in the biden administration's framing of its, ah geo political objectives as a fight of democracies against autocracies. i think is really, again backfiring because the lesson here that is the, the biden administration was looking to administer a is that this is what happens when you engage in behavior that the world of democracy is, does not like. and therefore, other countries at fall into this camp, aj huyin, or other countries around the world, ah,

should take heed. and i think in fact the opposite conclusions are being drawn now . and i think this is very ironic that these are the, the lessons that i think can be drawn from what's going on in ukraine. emitter is one of the most them, the common denominator here. it's all about energy really now you, you've already, i'll discuss how this is a back door to the green new deal. i agree with you here because no the if you put it to the, the voters, they won't vote for it. ok, so this is a back door here, but i mean, it's a lose lose proposition because it isn't going to work. and then you're not going to have energy. i mean, you, you lose on both sides. mit. yeah, i mean there are a lot of issues here. i mean, i mean, i agree with any other people on the call here that, you know, look, you've got an autocracy in america, you don't know who's really pulling the strings. you've got a demented president, you know, and nobody wants to talk about that because you're not allowed to say that. you know, you've got authoritarian creep. you've got lack of due process and enforcement of

the rule of law, which is a big problem in america. and you know, it's just winding people up to create division and tribalism. but you know, as you're saying with the green deal, what's happening is the federal reserve still, nobody wants to talk about this either. they're doing quantitative easing. they're buying a $120000000000.00 worth of bonds per month, and that's supposed to stop this month. but as a famously said, you can never taper ponzi scheme. so the nasdaq, as a result, has dropped 35 percent from its peak. so, and that's without them dropping the bond by so you've got a lot of debt out there on the market that needs to be refinanced. and you've got the most incompetent person on the planet, in the form of janet yellen, who created this mass when she was at the federal reserve for nearly 2 decades. it has been moved over to run the treasury. she has no clue what she's doing. remember, she's told us, for years it inflation is transitory. and i've been warning for years that if you keep printing money, eventually what you're going to do is create inflation,

hyperinflation and a economic su nami, which is what you saw in japan. that's now japan has been doing it for 30 years in japan's the 1st tip of the iceberg to, to get hit. but it's happening in the west and it's going to get a lot worse. and people need to really, you could see $250.00 to $300.00 oil or even higher, and that will kill western economies. it will kill the global economy as well. and i don't think that's out of the question. i don't think people are preparing for it . however, look, this is not all doom and gloom. i think that there's going to be massive amounts of opportunity when you know you get valuations coming back to normality because the valuations are some of these nasdaq's zombie companies. that the q e has enabled by the reckless policies of the profit govern government. and the central banks, when, when these get washed out, you're going to see

a massive amount of defaults. and there's going to be opportunities to buy prime assets at highly discounted prices for those who are highly geared. and i think that that's the problem. they've allowed too much debt credit and leverage to talk about it in my book to get out of hand. and it's got to come back to every, every market when it gets out of hand. and i've seen this happen many times. this is just a replay of what we've seen many times before, but you need people that understand how to take advantage of these markets. and that's what i do for a living. so, you know, i've seen that happen before, and this is an old playbook and you've got to have truth resurrected as well. you can't have the ministry of truth that biden still has running even though that crazy when and nina jackowitz or whatever her name is. they said, oh, well, she's been sidelined that program is still going, it's alive and well and that's a danger to that's the danger to democracy. i know i'm a you, i know what it means that when, when they attack what they call this information, ok. and 17 years of hardware would disappear for me. i failed. okay. they're,

they're trying, but they're not going to succeed. you know, so let me go back to you. i see a silver lining in a lot of this here. i ever since 2014 rush has been dealing with sanctions. and i think, you know, reorienting itself away from the west is the thing to do. we see so many because they let everything become political. and i think that, you know, the import substitution. all these other things are a good thing and it will drive productivity good. what your thoughts go ahead? yes, my sense is that i and deeds are a lot of things that are overdue, that are likely to be now expedited due to the events that we're seeing and poured substitution as one and certainly and there has been some success in some key areas like agriculture we're in port substitution has worked on and there are clearly the key challenge that i see now is in the industrial sector,

where i think a greater emphasis will be needed with respect to building a value added shane's with partners from the regime union with china, with other countries from the global south, and generally, i think we're already seeing trends of greater diversification of russia's economy, rushes, trade, russia trades are being directed more towards asia towards the faster growing economies. and clearly there are significant opportunities there because these are the economies that are growing faster. and these are the economies that have the scope to reduce important barriers significantly. that provides inter significant margin for

a russian of producers for roughly 40 percent. and of course, there is a greater need for russia to diversify into asia and to explore market there. there are these restrictions coming from the west that said that make it all the more important for russia to finally i have is i haven't sex boards directed towards the end of that. let me, let me jump in, give andy the last word here, live 45 seconds here. when it will, the global south have its own swift system because it a the, the west is abused, the west of the swift let them go ahead. why? say keep an eye on what's happening with china's digital currency. it says central bank, digital currency. what caused the digital currency electronic payment? this is not only a new currency, it's actually a new system of payment that is a token into an entirely new world of relating with money, whether you're

a individual company or a government. and i think that we will be seeing this unfolding before our very eyes in the next several years. well can happen fast enough, i'm afraid. or i gentlemen, that's all the time we have fascinating discussion. i want to thank my guest in new york, beijing, and here in moscow, and thanks to our viewers for watching us here at archy, see you next time. remember, cross titles. ah ah, ah ah

ah ah, needs to come to the russian state to never. i side as i'm turning those landscape with within the 50000 feet. okay, so mine is cuz i'm speaking with we will man in the european union, the kremlin media machine, the state on russia today, and sports or t sports next. even our video agency, roughly all band on youtube and pinterest, and with

me today i'm authorized to additional strong sanctions. i'm visiting soon. thank you. las glycine so fis on. she'll move happy. jermel lewis, russia, the special military operation in ukraine has triggered a wave of anti russian sanctions from the west. and it keeps coming up with new ones almost every day. this package will include financial sanctions that harshly limit rush us access to the capital markets. foreign companies acquitting russia atm cards, will blantan banks disconnected from the international payment system, shop fluctuating antola and euro exchange rates followed. can russian business overcome this nap when i travel up on a couple more sto, show, carving would know more to transfer. i land on the cello modification from when you buy the mileage the deal is but i'm not sure.