ah ah ah mm mm mm ah, hello, welcome to worlds. a part of the conflict in your career may still be dominating international airways, but it's not the only and perhaps not the worst calamity in the world today. tr lanka is currently going through the most dire economic and political prices in its history, and their fear is that more nations may go down the same turbulent path as the

global economy continues to pull through. how contagious it is. well, to discuss that, i'm now join from colombo, by a gum, our political economist and senior lecture at the university of johnston, a doctor could do it tomorrow. it's great to talk to you. thank you very much for your time. thank you for having me. now, not fully done with the comment pandemic, but there is another malay supposed to be spreading around the world. i'm talking about economic social instability and your countries your longer seems to be the 1st one's affected on a scale of $1.00 to $10.00. how bad it is, this is bob, economic and political crisis kind spacing since its independence in 1948 supplies of all kinds of essential goods from patrol and b. so putting gas medicines and even food stamps i and short supply,

and the price of many of these goods have doubled or tripled, making it on the affordable for people. so by far, it's the worst economic crisis. and this has led to a political crisis of legitimacy in the country. there are widespread cause ah no for the resignation of the president himself and his brother, the prime minister in the entire cabinet. it resigned. we've had a new government, but it continues to be unstable. there being purchased out on the streets, and this is perhaps the most formidable protested scene. since 1953 a few years after, ah ha independence. when she don't go into a balance of payment or crisis and it tries to raise the price of rights from

$0.25 and a sense of measure that crisis was so severe that our cabinet had to meet on a british warship. and that the prime minister resign. so it's very similar to that . and so these are some very difficult and worry kinds in sri lanka and certainly things are going to change. you cannot go in the direction that be happening. don't take care of them. or you mentioned before that there is a very peculiar wayne which authoritarianism and, and you liberalism, combined to push, rely on the financial and economically. could you elaborate on that? yeah, well the current crisis is partly caused by the global hike since field prices and commodity prices. and certainly the pandemic can it's disruption restroom. duncan has been dependent on tourism has led to a fall in a foreign reserves. the real issue is much longer. shanker was the 1st country in

south asia to liberalize its economy back in 1977. when the jai was in a government at that time, took sri lanka away from the non aligned movement to the orbit of the united states and with the suckle of much rattle organizations. structural adjustment cities under no liberal talk with tread liberalization and financial liberalization. leading us to become more dependent on international markets, but those reforms could not be sustained because of as long civil war. that was started in 1983 last 26 years. so it is really with the end of the civil war in 2009. that what i have characterized as the 2nd rave of new liberalism when the mind the raja bucks the government at that time, which had won the war with a very authoritarian militarized hold,

decided to take your liberal policies forward. so they've been in borrowed extensively in the international capital markets in particular and invested in infrastructure and tourism. but there are no returns from those investments. and it is dos foreign debt in the form of sovereign ones. over the last 13 years that has led to a debt crisis and now is full blown economic crisis in sri lanka. ringback now, as you mentioned many sure lumpkins are putting the blame for the credit crisis on the master classic class. but even the multitude of factors that you just mentioned, do you think it's fair to make them the only ones responsible and perhaps a secondary question to that given how many roger packs of family members, they are empowered. do you think, dan, this number to babe? well, for them because they shouldn't be,

and they could be oblivious to how the public would react to so many family members being empowered. why do you think the president found the need a point or has so many of his relatives in the positions of power? in a way it is the arrogance of power. they have been in power from 2005 to 2015. and after they won the war, they taught the indian civil and they decided to bring more and more family members in. and they taught with a combination of single, a buddhist nationalism and militarization. and this kind of financial is ation that they could be in power for a while. now. more recently been they again came back to power in 2019. soon after that the pen to make it as. and it was obvious to many of us that we were headed towards a common crisis, but they did very little to address it. in fact,

they continue with the same policies and try to just keep down a political cronies happy and. and that is why they so much and go against them, even though this is a historic crisis, this is going to be long drawn out. and even if a government changes is going to be difficult, after this crisis, they did very little and completely mismanage the economy. so much of the public anger at the moment at least, is against them. it's very interesting to contrast what's happening in sure lanka to you in the recent elections in the philippines where, you know, not just one but to a political dynasty, remained or return to power. and many experts attribute to the weakness of political parties in the philippines and which gives political families political clans, more authority, more power, sort of, they become a sort of political brands. i wonder, what's the dynamic insure lanka? how does it work there?

do what we have seen over the last 56 years is actually a lot of change. but in political parties, the though what's called the grand old party here, the united national party to home, the british handed over power in 1948, has been reduced to just one seat in parliament in the last elections. and in fact, that leader of the party who even lost his seat, has been appointed as prime minister a month ago by this very de legitimized president of roger boxes in turn. 4 years ago launched the our own party, the s so p p. breaking away from another age old pocky, the sri lankan freedom. ok. this constant changes going on in the, in the political around. i see that as a link to the economic unraveling. that has also been wrong in the making. of

course, the focus on very recent events, but economically and politically, shalanda has been going through change. but all of those have been coming into a major crisis that has erupted. but i also think is going to be a long drawn out crisis, where it's going to take years for us to gain economic and political stability. and in the years ahead, you might see other nationals forces into the realm. so it can be also a very dangerous period going forward. now as a dramatic us, this situation is in asheville and we are also observing similar trends in many other countries around the world. the prices of food, the prices of u, i rising pretty much everywhere, even in the developed countries. i wonder how much that has the state of the global economy influence what's going on in the country wants the share of the globalized influence on the domestic affairs. there historically, you know,

an island nation like us, you have always been influenced by historical developments. you know, that the great depression of the 1920s. and i'm actually characterizing the economic crisis in sri lanka now as another depression. and the great depression led to policies in sri lanka, of free education, free health care subsidies. and to this day, some of that survived. i teach in a university all university since we like our state universities and we have free education up to university. and so the great depression, even though it was a global phenomena, ended up creating a welfare state in sri lanka. similarly, the crisis of the 1970s. ma'am, you would know that, you know, globally, prices quadrupled, winter or pick oil shock in the 19 seventy's. a global downturn and silica was one of the 1st countries, maybe after chileya, under the, you know, after the military coup emphasis, rule of canal sheet that turn to no liberal reforms. so similarly,

i see the current crisis in sri lanka as the continuation of the global financial crisis of 2008 is really, hasn't been resolved. we have only been trying to financial eyes and, and bubble up high economy. and, and what i see as perhaps a crisis of neoliberalism hitting sri lanka 1st. so i don't think the usual solution is going to work. they're going to have to drastically change direction the are to come up with this crisis. and dr. can you remember whenever we talk about the crisis in the global economy, it's always hard to understand where to start and where to finish. some i, economists and blame it on the very nature of capitalism. others, i explain it more narrowly by the consequences of the common pandemic and the disruption in production change. wonder where do you stand on that as far as the

global economic mass is concerned, what are the antecedents there? yeah, no, as i mentioned, the 1930 is the 1970s. ok. capitalism periodically goes through these crises. because if it are on some the profit motive. and so this is for me, very much a capitalist crisis. but you're also in this latest phase of capitalism called your liberalism. we have seen repeated crises. so we've seen crisis in latin america in the 1980s. that station crises of 199798, even the crisis in russia and in 19 nineties. and then of course, you hit the western world until it hit the western world. we were told that it's only crony capitalism that leads to crises. but they didn't talk about trone capitalism, that became the global financial crisis of 2008. so it's not about trone capitalism

. it is something inherent to capitalism. and this is what i think we are seeing happen now. so this and so that the crises have become more deeper and more frequent. now, but this time i see it as actually a crisis of northern burleson itself, that to be able to continue with accumulation through dispossession. ref, finance, capital has been able to continue to accumulate at the cost of working people all around the world. and the 3rd world in particular, has been really hit hard by. it affects people's daily lives as guessing in sri lanka. and even in say like us, since the 19 seventy's inequality has been greatly rising. and part of the anger out on the street is also reflecting those dynamics of neoliberalism. so don't secondary come are. we have to take a short break now, but we will get back in just a few moments. ah

ah ah ah, well, joe, my double alex, she's just gonna be on the left him a little bit. nobody but i just bought a level that he thought young real name is a logical result of college. who else is familiar with glenda goodrich? yeah, it is. public your theatre be a number big enough. feel. okay. the flu make? you've got this nice fortune with the bush and below that season. now she did the wave on the pavilion, not to them. dishes it's, you know,

if they did all this noise or was it just like i don't, i don't buy a deal this wouldn't have happened if indeed o as vida didn't push this agenda, this war with that because i'm here this week or so on that i should be to what about a, a few more you nothing. one of the keys. did anyone up up with with me a ah

welcome back to will the 4th i can hear them are political economists in senior lecture at the university of john. dr. could you come before the break we were discussing the origins of the long process as well as of the global economic crisis . and while it's natural, anything logical to blame it on the sitting government? i wonder if there any internationally accepted economic dog. my dad gary is government's feel obliged to comply with, but that simply don't work anymore is the global economy or national economies still function according to the laws and the rules that i taught and the department of economics? no, i think what we're seeing that the dates, economics, departments in my country all in much of the world we are unable to either predict

or provide viable solutions in ways forward to the economic crises that yeah. seen. in fact, they believe that markets clear markets themselves will solve these problems. and that ideology is also behind the policies that are recommend. ready and put forward and forced given on many good low countries by banks, national monetary fund and the world bank and nearly broke institutions. so, but they seem to have a little disregard for the real abject human suffering that is caused by those policies. so this is a global phenomena, i think st lanka is one of the 1st countries in this way to even default on its international deck to go to a city,

a crisis. the silicon elite i'm looking for the i m f to solve this problem. i'm still on guys in a desperate situation now, you know, you have to go around to the big bowl to any country that will give us credit lines or any institution that will give us a credit line to vote. i asked them, shells not her. i'm sorry for interrupting it's one thing when you turn to your neighbors who may or may not give you some support in the times of need, but if i'm not mistaken, so long to when to the i'm a 16 times over the last 12 or 13 years you've been boring, a huge amount of money, a very significant interest rate than from what i've seen, even the opposition at this point of time. well, they're calling for the resignation of the current government. they're still insisting on pretty much repeating the same economic policy. so is that going to bring a different result? i don't think so and, and, and not in the medium term for sure. because since 1965,

as you mentioned young has gone to 69 with agreements more recently after the war in 2009. they went into one and then in 2016 after change of gone, every government has used the same approach and going to the i'm if only allowed us to borrow more and higher interest rate. so pushing us further into debt. so it only bubbles us up for a few years. ready and, and the collapse into the debt trap. so that's obviously not the solution. but this has become the global approach to solve the problems of debt ridden countries around the world. and it's not just re lanka this time. i think a number of other countries are likely to default our get into a similar kind of problem already. the can see pakistan is, is in a crisis and their policy economy in terms of south asia is on shaky ground. so

the need an alternate different direction and during these kinds of global crises, and it can be very painful in terms of how that change happens. there's also a change in the global order. i mentioned the great depression of the 19 per piece . and out of that of coast now does the rise of fascism a 2nd world war. and huge changes before the global order changed to a kind of the keynesian approach of social welfare states. again, the 19 seventy's, a time of many proxy was around the world. and in a change of consolidation of m. a muley bro project with finance capital rising up . so this might again be a time. and the worry is that these kinds of a great crisis as the, as the great part of on him, his jaw audiology has mentioned lead to great unraveling. that can also be,

have serious political and economic consequences. and that can also lead to huge market destruction. and it's, it's a worry for all of us. i think you want a peaceful work house became a potential alternative for sri lanka, if i'm not mistaken. india has extended almost $3000000000.00 to your country, in credit lines and various other instruments. since january this year. that's a huge amount of money. it's more than the united states or china have offered you . could that potentially be an alternative to the i'm afro? well, i think india has itself is saying that it has reached its limits of providing a credit line. so she like needs to get credit from various actors, but also needs to create its own system. in the short term, we have no option,

but we need to prioritize our info. it's been living well beyond our needs, have been been importing luxury items. and even today that is continuing and that, you know, small ways we need to prioritize our system. we need to create a public distribution system where the state takes responsibility during such a severe crisis. but even now i, they think that the market should address it and the i'm of recommendations also for the market to fix this problem. now some analysts think they're going to the i, m f would be about international credibility. that's like i can again, gwen borrow in international markets. i think that's far fetched. they can see global interest rates rising and basically appetite for global capital to coming to a country like she like, particularly after it has defaulted. so i'm seeing sri lanka sort of muddle along, chug along into a long, drawn out a crisis. but that clarity isn't there. with id to our,

our policy makers. ultimately, she'll arkansas to make a decision on what kind of an economy the want to build. and do we want to continue to be dependent on certain international actors or do we want to chalk pot? and i also want to mention it maybe later presenters as me, but i think russia provides a good example of being able to when it's out of the i'm a financing at the time when it was really, really desperate. after the collapse of the soviet union, we had a huge that we were paying huge interest rates, but over time we've been able to become more self sufficient. which leads me to my next question. and one of the features of the current crisis is the shortage of sla foreign exchange currencies dove, left you unable to import. and i'm talking not only about luxury items that he mentioned, but also madison. i know the trunk has been experiencing difficulties without electricity as painful as this experience may be. don't you think that's also

a good argument for self sufficiency, actually building and other industry enough economy to to live within your own means? absolutely. in fact, i, last year a colleague of mine and i published a paper in the international quantity of asian studies that they were looking at the long $960.00 is in many asian countries. the emphasis on self sufficiency. we were headed into that kind of an experiment in the $917.00 bill before we switch to a sort of a neo liberal direction and self sufficiency, industrial policy. these are became bad tons of bad concepts for a new labor, ultra. but i think you need to think about self sufficiency and you need to think about our own sort of agrarian question and how they want to become self sufficient food. in particular, you're going through a food crisis and to story start on manufacturing. so that has to be a long term direction. now, of course,

feel like also has its limitations. you mentioned rushing in 19, nineties, even melisha during the 1997 crisis, did not go from i'm as agreement. but i think malaysia, russia have much more natural resources than a country like sri lanka. we don't have all dresses as for example. so b, b, v are dependent in the international a global economy. but we have to set it on our own terms. and we really have to think about our own social structure, the importance of equality and freedom within our country to be able to chat that i think i'm to let you chose our visionary leaders, maybe in a different age than i can forties, fifties and sixties, talk in that direction, but now we have, what i would characterize as a comparable elite will become very much more dependent on the west. and don't think in those terms now are changing gears a little bit. i want to bring some of my professional experience i, in the past i covered a lot of

a spring uprisings. and when i look at what's happening on the speech of felucca right now, i feel it is feeling of deja. hello. people taking to the streets, demanding more dignity, demanding more freedom, demanding more accountability from their governments. and when i saw that happening in cairo in damascus, in tripling, in how the good feeling too, and people on those streets always thought that you know, things could possibly get worse. and we have history unfortunately proved that the, that it could get worse. now i know the tra lanka had a very painful experience of civil strife. you went through the kids long, civil war, aren't you afraid of its return? because it all starts with the rallies and some i think some of the rallies intro longer have already been militarized. aren't you afraid of disintegrating into something far more precarious and dangerous?

yeah, she lanka, in a rental, a civil law, mainly in the northeast in, in, in jeff now that i teach that was the, the stronghold off the tamil tigers in the civil war. started. but never also to lodge insurrections in the south by single you. so we have that history. but at the same time, the current protests, even though on, on one day when peaceful protest is attacked by government boons, it didn't turn violent in reprisals. for the most part, it has been peaceful. and you don't have any kind of a movement taking it in a violent direction. but my worry is that right now, even these protests have been much more inclusive of minorities and so on. but if there isn't a solution provided, if i'm if cornish loud pins lead to further suffering, maybe 2 years down the line, there's a danger that another, a nationalist,

fascist type of ridging could try to capture people's grievances. and that could again tear apart our society. so not maybe immediately, but if you don't address this problems now, she has a history of the pendulum swinging politically from one direction to the other. so if you really have to use this moment very carefully to put sri lanka on a sustainable park, well 1st to address the food crisis and immediate needs of the people and then the unemployment, the loss of likelihood so that people feel not begin to have confidence in the economy and for all of that, you need a new leadership. we need a new leadership from the ground up and it's going to be, it's gonna take time in greece last almost a decade with its economic crisis. i think there were something like 7 by mr. ready changes had happened in that decade in the 20 tense. the might be also looking at something like back and she lacked over the next few years. well, those are going to have them are, as you mentioned,

shall i has to be. i am only pioneers in contracting the, the crisis. i simply hold that you will also be a little bit versed in finding the solution. wish you all the best to you and your people. thank you for having me and thank you for your can send the box. thank you for watching hope to see you again or was apart with . mm news. ah

ah . so what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have. it's crazy confrontation, let it be an arms race is on a very dramatic development only personally and getting to resist. i don't see how that strategy will be successfully, very difficult time. time to sit down and talk.