let him said she thought each distribution consented. ah, ah, ah hello and welcome to cross hog where all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle irreversible split. this is probably the most accurate way to describe russia's relationship with the west the day. but this did not have to be the west attempts to cripple the russian economy. have failed, as well as the attempt to isolate russia. the west is isolated itself. crafts sucking rushes relations with the west. i'm joined by my guess,

michael maloof in washington. he's a for a pentagon senior security policy analyst in corpus chris. we have michael flannigan, he is president planning and consulting in a former congressman and here in moscow we have maxine swartzkoff. he is the director of the institute of international studies at moscow state institute of international relations. i, gentleman cross our rules and effect. that means you can jump in any time you want and i always appreciate it. right, michael, i'm in washington. d. c. let me go 1st. i want to ask all 3 of you the same question? do we have any reversible split with in russia? west relations? go ahead. michael martin. yeah. yep. he did. i think we do. i and i think it is something that united states brought on itself in the west for that matter. but at the urging and pushing of the united states took the by the minute administration and the near, near conservative sewer in it, like victoria newland. this is an effort and a purposeful effort by them to contain and ultimately have regime change in russia . and i think that this was the atlas for a mr. potent to say ok,

enough's enough because the united states just pushed moscow to its own limits and, and, and in so doing push the, the european countries to, to follow suit reluctantly. they, they've dead and an already were stand splits there. but this is, this is something where moscow now is a look at to creation of a new multi polar world order. as i see it along with russia. i will, along with china rather, and iran, turkey and all the other members of the shanghai cooperation organization and the bricks countries. so i see that this is a, an irreversible trend and nice and i don't think it's a bad thing. i think it's going to get them out from under the, the western and a financial system dependency. and also create a, an entirely different economic order that is going to be more constructive than destructive that we've seen on the part of the united states over the past 20 years

. okay, mike of lighting on the same question to you a reversible split and michael my loops opinion, this is a basically a good thing. i tend to agree with him. your thoughts, my friend? well, i'm, i'm furious. peter, you need to come to me before michael maloof because we agree on most things, but i need to say it 1st of the, the michael is correct and most things, but i, i disagree slightly in, in the ultimate impact. we need to have a multi polar world. i think that that is an absolutely good thing. when you have a bipolar world, i mean that in definitional sense not in its pharmaceutical sense, you have every one is either for you or against you and you can't view the world in that way. there has to be room for neutrality or indifference to dealing with its own problems. and so i believe we baited russia over the years. but, but then russia's reaction, i think, is also extreme perhaps not to the russian point of view,

but it's most other people's and, but it's predictable. and that's the problem. we need to move away from a bipolar. ready world to a multi polar. ready world and, and you'll find, even in the writings of president eisenhower in a generalized narrative. and president eisenhower was very skeptical of remaining in nato and thought it would be very good idea if we ended the organization. once it's a, it's real purpose of being able to fight back naziism was over a resurgence of not to them. so it's due to continue to view the world of you love me or you hate me is crazy. we have to be able to allow it to do it, behave in its own independence, in its own best interests, provided it doesn't leave its borders. and i think, you know, the real pain in the world. the real pain that's coming is from china and to dr. russia away from it's european friends it's, it's ancient european capacity to it's eastern capacity is, is unhelpful. it's stupid, it's insane. but it's, you know,

it's joe biden. the man is a walking disaster, foreign policy wise and always. and then this is not a surprise. so i pray that we get through this well. yeah. and that we can work together again. yeah, it's surprised, but it's a bit very predictable at the same time. and i, i think this is a bipartisan thing. i mean, i agree with criticism about biting picture, but i mean it's bipartisan. ok. make sure you're correct maxime. you know the same question to you and i wanted to have a little extra caveat for you and the situation with colleen and grab. i mean, again, i mean just a, a increasing the escalation of tension right here. i mean, russia had agreements with, with lithuania, with the european union about transport of cargo and people. and now that is being the, any is being up there. i mean, this is why i'm calling the program irreversible split. i mean, this is intentional increasing of tensions here. go ahead max. a few things i want to mention. a monopoly is for the head to

monopolist in 1st place for them in the short run with the long run. i think the i'm right of dollars of the united states for the for today is alternately, we can or not just shrink summer. so what we're seeing now, i read with my colleagues in the sense that a little more of a world that we have. now. ultimately, i think the current divorce that we're seeing is going to, we can both the western russia and there's not necessarily who think for either actor in the sense that they will be weaker in see other challenges, not just from you know, what non western powers, but also, you know, our transnational challenge is no corporation between russia and in that sense,

i think it's, it's, it's, it's a loss for both. i think whether this is a reversible, it looks like it's going to be long term. ultimately, i think it will change because we're kootenai, so basically weren't the west to guess is that the current establishment are conducting policies that will alternately bring to power the people and that may entail in some change in the western attitude, i think may be good for russia for the past few years, it was a certain gap in between the leadership in technology, trends in their value system. and so for russia, you know, b, disentangled from that logical aspect because in my dad is tangled from the value system is i think all a michael in, in washington to me i,

you've already kind of alluded to it here. i mean, when we look at these, these are sanctions and all that, i mean and, and they still haven't fully impacted rush. i want my audience to understand that. i mean, it's not a bed of roses here. and, and, and there's a lot of predictions. and 3rd, and 4th quarter things will deteriorate on the with the russian economy. however, having said that, i mean the impact is very real and very painful on western polities, on, on, on western consumers here. i mean, it's, it's almost to the point of just irrational. you want to cut off russia from everything that has to do with the west, but you're it self inflicted wounds. it's really extraordinary to witness michael in washington. yeah, i think it's backfired on the united states. as i said earlier, i think that this is something that clearly moscow and it has as basically veered more eurasian in, in the eurasian direction. and this, and it has picked up other france. i don't think it's isolating itself. i think

it's corinne and that this brand new opportunity in the, in addition to a world order that it, that it's gonna occur. and actually the, the rubel has strengthened as a result of the sanctions that hasn't weakened. and we're seeing that, that there are some difficulties within the russian economy. sure. but your, your, your, your gas prices and everything else are relatively stable. and, and the in you're seeing that, that the economy in the, in the west, however, has suffered durmit tremendously. and i think it's backfired and, and now you're going to see the european countries already, which are fracturing in terms of their unit unity beginning to look more east where they are exporting countries and the ride up in the, at their, in the neighborhood, in effect. and they're going to look more closely to russia and to the east, looked at the one of the 1st benchmarks of this trend transfer to a, a multi polar world order, which has many definitions. by the way, is something that began in may of 2018 when,

when the trump dropped out of the j. c. p. away i happened to be in iran the week that that happened. and you could just sense that something tremendous as had happened, that there is going to be a major shift as a consequence of between east and west. and it actually has occurred, and it's built upon that. and it has improved upon that. so you have the s, c o, you have the, the bricks, as i said, you have the eurasia economic cooperation, union, economic cooperation group coming together. and all of these are going to form a and approach it in the world that's gonna be much greater in terms of population . and in terms of thrust than we see in the west. and you're going to see western countries beginning to peel off and look to them because they, as exporting countries, they need those markets in the east, and they're going to be looking that in that direction. it michael in corpus christi m a. what i fully expect is a doubling down of everything,

so the sanctions didn't work. so what else is going down here? i mean, there's, there's an, you know, the, there's a discursive problem here in the, you know, russia must not win, that's the mantra in the west. but it should have been, we need peace and peace for every one. and they continue to say, no, russia can't win were and that's almost putting ukraine as a footnote to all of this one minute before we go to the break here, michael and chris corpus christi. if you, you have to really understand the real motives of biden. and his son hunter, the sorrows crowds the carries, the clintons, there's more going on here than just the geopolitical needs of 2 great nations fighting over a 3rd. and that has to be examined thoroughly and far beyond the topic we have here to talk about. i bitin will impotently throw tons of money at the belt way, corridor here in washington at the arms makers in an effort to try and have some of a trickle into ukraine. it won't work that, but that's all he can do. well,

am i maxime real quick here? i mean, the expectation, are you saying this is the split could be jet? could be generational 10 seconds, my friend, sorry for so little time. 10 seconds. i think it might be, i think it might be that the, it may, it may also have to be with generations, a certain artist, if you're in moscow and in washington d. c. all right, thank ok. well, that was a great way to and out the 1st part of the program here, gentlemen, we're going to go to a short break. and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on russia's relations with the west state with oh ah

ah, a doubles are going to put well, talk to register for the school. i hope i hope with a, [000:00:00;00]

with a ford edge that also choice issue somebody over there, both of those with you up on video with lookout if you up for you was up with the idea is you know, that way i don't mind ah, welcome back. across stock where all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle to

remind you we're discussing russia's relations with the west. ah. okay, go back to max here in moscow. a few days ago in saint petersburg, i bought a mir putin gave a speech to an international crowd. it was quite strident. i mean, for most of us, they bow listen to it and read it later. it's very can to the 2007 speech made in munich at the security confab there. what did you take a peek from it because it was quite strident and it was basically saying, we don't we, you're not the west is not interested in a relationship with us. so we're not interested in having a relationship with the west. no more. this cancel culture, we don't care anymore. and when we go to foreign minister labranz, i think it was to the b, b, c. he saying, you know, the question from the question or was, you know, in the, in western eyes and he said, i don't care about your eyes. i mean,

and love rock different usually speak that way. okay. i mean, that's why i'm calling it irreversible split. i mean, they're basically saying we're, we're not, we're done talking, we're going to move forward in the direction that we feel is best for our sovereignty. do you think that's a fairs summation of putin speech, max? to me, the speech was a kind of a proper speech, a or b as they say now, so everyone find anything for themselves are, those are some thought reasonable and we're a national development and what programs. in reality, the reports are, he was talking about a partnerships for russia outside the list. most of all, i think it was about vision. sure. future of russia and international system because he was talking, he sees, you know, you mentioned in

a 2007 that each in my ear almighty, ninety's rushes relation to the west. they see ended between russia in the shower and that you know, the summation of all the crisis of all the problems and it was shredding in any way . it was more of a t, a t shortly. she said, ok, you want, you know, follow. i will let you follow this for, you know, the warning is the sticker in the slash biology. i suppose. you know, the populace will be not on the list. but you know, people will run uncertainty from people who are disgruntled with your policy. that gets up to you. we're going to go with our own business with cash. so to me it was a program us each. we'll see how it gets implemented into practice. michael in, in washington. i'm in

a way we can turn our attention to what's going on in ukraine. there is no way in the world. ukraine can win the conflict, a military conflict with russia. that's just the, the, the facts. ok. irrespective of the drumbeat of propaganda that is constantly being spewed out. ok, but what is the biden administration going to do? i mean, how do you explain defeat? because that's what it's going to be. and then we have the european union talking about, you know, potential candidacy for ukraine. what ukraine are they talking about? ok, i mean, it is that it all of this white noise here, and it's a, it's a avoiding realities on the ground. war is always awful. i'm not happy that there is a war and don't get me wrong here. ok, but there's the, it will come to an end. how is the west going to react to that, particularly the united states, particularly the biden administration. go ahead, mike. when was it? yeah, i think with the, by the ministration ukraine is a call gets just an a means to an end to an ultimate goal of trying to contain, as i said,

russia and an anti obtain regime changed. it just happened to be ukraine this time . and, and, and the problem is, is that the ukraine war is becoming much greater. and the united states, particularly the by the ministration has no policy. it doesn't know what it wants to do. it's re, it's been reactive. and there is no end game to this. and this is the problem that we're seeing now we're seeing on the, in the, behind the scenes a little bit of trying to get zalinski, the president of ukraine to look, to try to try to come to terms. and because you're not going to win, you're not going to take back crimea, you're not gonna take back south. so he but he's, he's been relentless and he thinks that, that these arms and what have you are going to be a be coming in for, for, for, for good. and it's just not going to happen. the united states doesn't have all that material. and, and in fact it's, it's own supplies are dwindling,

and we're having to back fill the europeans, who reluctantly are supplying good, so to, to ukraine. so nobody has a plan. it's just all being reactive. and i think at some point here in the very near future, they're gonna have to come to reality and figure out just where, where we're going to be going with this policy because russia is gaining and it's going to be gaining more and more in the east that now that the war has shifted that direction. and i think basically, moscow can are in effect declare victory because it has achieved what it ultimately wants to do. that is to create the, the land bridge between dunbar region and crimea, and also to neutralize ukraine from becoming a member of nato. and i think that this is what colton wants to do. he wants to set up a buffer in the, in the west. so he can look more eastward and i think he has basically told the wes that the, that, that, that maintain relations madonna minimal basis. but it's not going to be the robust

looking westward that they used to have. it's going to be much more eastward. and that's the direction things are going. that's just the reality of it. and ukraine is just a means to an end, michael and corpus christi, how to react to what we just heard from michael in washington. michael is, is a astute an observance is always, but a you have to understand the russian psyche just a little bit and i don't pretend with you is particularly with you peter's lived in russia for decades and maxine on friend of this. yeah. right. and center and our friend at the strategic institute i'm, i'm not going to challenge you with that, but you don't have to read a lot about marshall, super over others to understand the russian art of war. which is you, people think, well the art of war is the same, the year world over it is not the art of war. in the united states, you 10 percent casualties in a unit, i spent some time in the military, 10 percent casualties in a combat. the larger than over unit makes it combat and effective. it must,

it must be withdrawn and can't function. not so with the russian military, there's a greater acceptance of, of blood. i'm sorry to put it that way, but it's true. and the art of war is more about the soldier than about the technology. you know, they don't need our toys, they can quite care why, capably handle this matter. and they are quite capably handling it in the slow, plodding hub to hub rolling. ready artillery way that any reasonable military person could have expected and predicted. unfortunately, we have a pentagon filled with woke. i and i would not have said this until recently, but incompetent generals, i mean for whatever they're me politics, we always believe they were competent. i don't believe that's true anymore. i got we have real idiots over there. and if they can support the regime with a with lies about how well ukraine is doing. well, joe biden is walking a gang plank to a place where he's got to announce we didn't win. and what is that going to look?

and that is, and that is in the wake of kabul also. ok, yes it, it, you know, mike, michael, you know, and not only are they incompetent, the, i know why they're incompetent because they're just angling for the, the pay out. when they finished being working at the pentagon, they are looking for a board at buoying and etc. that's all that, that's the game plan that you know, tony blair invented it for everybody. ok. public service is just taking the box. maxine, let me go to you here in moscow. this conflict in ukraine will come to an end. i to, i absolutely believe will be on russia's terms and rushes timetable, but russia will be for a very long time, maybe a generation at war and in one sense of the word or another with nato. agree or disagree. i totally agree with you. i more so i think we are a tour with united states in particular this very moment because what happened, i think happened gradually in tacitly,

in my conversations with some of my colleagues, i was just and there was little appreciation of that the united states basically was this is to this rather why not contributing to direct killing of the russian soldiers f e creating or by providing a dat intelligence to the ukrainian military that contributes to the killing of the russian hill to personnel in all worships and other material and personnel is actually a violation of these unspoken rule that was only for you know, in place is doing some conflicts in the coal or, you know, on korea get not. but it was never the case actually end of the cold war. now we're going back to this war stratasys of the cold war. and there is one thing that i think everyone has to bear in mind that there is no such tedious proxy or they're

never singular. it will be plural, you know, and forever. a general that might be a retail issue and not necessarily directly tell ish, you know, to be clear. i'm not advocating for that. i'm just, you know, raising this is a serious concern. that is on the path for how this confrontation made life, you know, spiraling come from dish a fresh micro in washington. how, how is the nato acquitted itself so far in this conflict? ok, because i always have to bring it up. on december 17th, the russians communicated to nato and to the united states, what could possibly happen if they didn't listen, their security needs. it to security is indivisible. how does that nato, how has it acquitted itself so far? real quick, one minute to you. well, i don't think it's done very well, and i think that you're not going to see a war between nato and,

and russia. in the long term. you may see skirmishes, you may see disputes, but europe cannot afford to go to war with russia. they have seen how war chicka, how russia conducts its warfare. it's, it's just a, just total total obliteration. and the europe will not put him up, put up with that as it is, it's going to take him years to recover just from what they been going through. and i think that we're going to be seeing russia and, and nato, even though it's going to be rocky. i think they will not go to war ultimately, but we'll have disputes. ok, michael and cruet corpuscles, we have 25 seconds here. you see article 5 being invoked this year by nato. no, no, i don't. i think i think we'll sit on lithuania. we'll sit on a, a poland and we'll make sure that nothing much comes of that the, the sable rattling going on there. they may think they're precious, but they're not. they're defending a bad bad, bad policy that caused russia to behave in a bad way and deserve friends from the street. again,

students actually correct. maxine, we have to take a step back countries go on forever and we will get back together again. but we've been harmed by the behavior of nato and the reaction by russia right now. and we've got to take a step back from that. am well, it's tight. i hope we will take a step back. everyone here has all the time we have. i want to thank my guest in washington corpus christi and moscow. and i want to thank our viewers for watching us here in our t. c. next, on remember crossing long . oh, what else? seemed wrong when old fools just don't pull a shape out the same becomes the african and engagement

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