people helping killed in a huge earthquake that shook afghanistan, wednesday morning, more than 1500 others were injured. according to the taliban authorities to quake was centered on the site, the west of the country. i could also be felt in neighboring pakistan. rescue efforts are complicated after many international agencies, less of gala style after the taliban takeover of the country last year. and chaotic withdrawal of the u. s. military from its lowest war in history. while unprecedented rainfall and flooding in india and bangladesh of destroyed millions of homes and left more than a 100 people, the heavy rains 1st started in march and have left countless people struggling for food. the medical supplies the u. n's, children's charity unicef. wonder if a potential help catastrophe of hospitals are out of action. more than a 1000000 children or a native virgin town. russia has been marking the

81st anniversary of the nazi invasion of the soviet union in the 2nd world war known as the greatest patriotic war. here. events have been held throughout the country and memory of the victims. young volunteers took part in the fence in the heart of saint petersburg during the war. the city then known as lending ground was under siege for 3 years. in the central city of samarra, people laid out fire paintings on the road during the war. it was a reserve capital of the ussr. moscow fights also marked the anniversary people gathered 2 lights, 1418 candles along the musket river. the number precisely matching how many days the grid patriarch war lasted flooded more potent also laid flowers on the grave of the unknown soldier, which symbolizes the harder witness and sacrifices made during the war. i don't miss any of the big midweek stories by giving ortiz twitter page. i follow you won't be bored there for me now on the news team here in moscow for goodbye.

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ah hello and welcome to cross hub. were all things are considered? i'm peter lavelle, irreversible split. this is probably the most accurate way to describe russia's relationship with the west today. but this did not have to be the west attempts to cripple the russian economy. have failed, as well as the attempt to isolate russia. the west is isolated itself from sucking rushes relations with the west. i'm joined by my guess, michael maloof in washington. he's a former pentagon senior security policy analyst in corpus chris. we have micro flannigan, he is president, planning and consulting in a former congressman. and here in moscow we have maxine swartzkoff, he is the director of the institute of international studies at moscow state institute of international relations. hi gentlemen,

cross up rules and effect. that means you can jump in any time you want and i always appreciate it. right, michael, i'm in washington dc. let me go 1st. i want to ask all 3 of you the same question? do we have any irreversible split with in russia, west relations? go ahead. michael in washington. yeah. yep. he did. i think we do. i and i think it is something that united states brought on itself in the west for that matter. but at the urging and pushing of the united states took the by the minute administration and the near, near conservative sewer in it like victoria new lynch. this is an effort and a purposeful effort by them to contain and ultimately have regime change in russia . and i think that this was the catalyst for a mr. potent to say ok, enough's enough because the united states just pushed moscow to its own limits and the, and, and in so doing push the, the european countries to, to follow suit reluctantly. they, they've dead an already were stand splits there,

but this is, this is something where moscow now is a look at to creation of a new multi polar world order. as i see it along with russia. i will, along with china rather, and iran, turkey and all the other members of the shanghai cooperation organization and the bricks countries. so i see that this is a, an irreversible trend and nice and i don't think it's a bad thing. i think it's going to get them out from under the, the western and a financial system dependency. and also create a, an entirely different economic order that is going to be more constructive than destructive that we've seen on the part of the united states over the past. 20 years. okay, michael planning on the same question to you irreversible split. and michael my loops opinion, this is a basically a good thing. i tend to agree with him. your thoughts, my friend? well, i'm, i'm furious. peter. any the come to me before michael maloof because we agree on most things, but i need to say it 1st of the,

the michael is correct and most things way i disagree slightly in, in the ultimate impact. we need to have a multi polar world. i think that that is an absolutely good thing. when you have a bipolar world, i mean that in the, in the, in definitional sense not, and it's pharmaceutical sense. you have every one is either for you or against you and you can't view the world in that life. there has to be room for neutrality or indifference to dealing with its own problems. and so, i believe we baited russia over the years, but, but then russia's reaction, i think, is also extreme, perhaps not to the russian point of view, but through to most other people's and, but it's predictable. and that's the problem. we need to move away from a bipolar. ready worlds were multi polar. ready world, and you'll find even in the writings of president eisenhower, not generalized narrative, president eisenhower was very skeptical of remaining in nato and thought it would be very good idea if we ended the organization once it's so it's real purpose of

being able to fight back naziism was over a resurgence of not to them so it's due to continue to view the world of you love me or you hate me is crazy. we have to be able to allow it to do it, behave in its own independence, in its own best interests, provided it doesn't leave its borders. and i think, you know, the real pain in the world, the real pain that's coming is from china and to drive russia away from it's european friends it's, it's ancient european capacity to its eastern capacity is, is unhelpful. it's stupid, it's insane. but it's, you know, it's joe biden. the man is a walking disaster, foreign policy wise and always. and then this is not a surprise. so i pray that we get through this. well. yeah. and that we can work together again. yeah, it's surprise, but it's a bit very predictable at the same time. and i, i think this is a bipartisan thing. i mean, i agree with criticism about biting texture,

but i mean it's bipartisan. okay. make sure you're correct maxime. you know the same question do, and i wanted to have a little extra caveat for you in the situation with colleen and grab. i mean again, i mean just increasing the escalation of tension right here. i mean, russia had agreements with, with lithuania, with the european union, about transport of cargo and people. and now that is being the, any is being up there. i mean, this is why i'm calling the program irreversible split. i mean, this is intentional, increasing of tensions here. go ahead max. all of the things i want to mention a monopoly is for the head to monopolist in 1st place for them in the short run with the long run. i think i'm right on dollars of the united states with ultimately

a string homer. so what we're seeing now, i read with college in the sense that a little more of a world that we have now. ultimately, i think the current divorce that we're seeing is going to weaken both the western russia and that is not necessarily who think for either actor in the sense that they will be weaker in facing other challenges. not just from, you know, what non western powers, but also, you know, our trans national challenges, no corporation between russia less than in that sense. i think it's, it's, it's the last 40. i think whether this is the reversible, it looks like it's going to be long term lee. i think it will change because we couldn't so basically weren't the west. the guess is that the current

establishes are conducting policies that will ultimately bring to power the people and that may entail in some change in the western heritage. what i think may be good for russia for the past few years. it was a certain gap in between the leadership in technology, trends in their value system. and so for russia, you know, be disentangled from the logical aspect because in my back is handled from the system is i think all her a michael, it in washington to me. i, you've already kind of alluded to it here. i mean, when we look at these, these are sanctions and all that, i mean and, and they still haven't had fully impacted rush. i want my audience to understand that. i mean, it's not a bed of roses here and there, and there's a lot of predictions. and 3rd and 4th quarter things will deteriorate on that with

the russian economy. however, having said that, i mean the impact is very real and very painful on western polities, on, on, on western sit consumers here. i mean it's, it's almost to the point of just irrational. you want to cut off russia from everything that has to do with the west, but it's self inflicted wounds. it's really extraordinary to witness michael in washington. yeah, i think it's backfired on the united states. as i said earlier, i think that this is something that clearly moscow and it has as basically veered more eurasian and in the ration direction. and this and it has picked up other friends. i don't think it's isolating itself. i think it's corinne and that this brand new opportunity. and in addition to a world order that it does come to occur and actually the, the rubel has strengthened as a result of the sanctions that hasn't weakened. and we're seeing that, that there are some difficulties within the russian economy. sure. but your, your,

your, your gas prices and everything else are relatively stable and, and in, you're seeing that, that the economy in the, in the west, however, has suffered durmit tremendously. and i think it's backfired inch. and now you're going to see the european countries already, which are fracturing in terms of their unit unity beginning to look more east where they are exporting countries and the ride up in the, at their, in the neighborhood, in effect. and they're going to look more closely to russia and to the east, looked at the, one of the 1st benchmarks of this trend transfer to a, a multi polar world order, which has many definitions by the way, is something that began in may of 2018 when, when the trump dropped out of the j. c. p. away. i happened to be in iran the week that that happened. and you could just sense that something tremendous as had happened. that there's going to be a major shift as a consequence of between east and west, and it actually has a current,

and it's built upon that and it has improved upon that. so you have the s seo, you have the, the bricks, as i said, you have the eurasia economic cooperation, union economic cooperation looks good group coming together. and all of these are going to form a and approach it in the world that's gonna be much greater in terms of population . and in terms of thrust than we see in the west. and you're going to see western countries beginning to peel off and look to them because they, as exporting countries, they need those markets in the east, and they're going to be looking that in that direction. it michael in corpus christi m a. what i fully expect is a doubling down of everything, so the sanctions didn't work. so what else is going down here? i mean, there's, there's, you know, there's a discursive problem here in the, you know, russia must not win, that's the mantra in the west. but it should have been, we need peace and peace for every one. and they continue to say, no. russia can't win were and that's almost putting ukraine as

a footnote to all of this one minute before we go to the break. here michael and chris corpus christi, you have to really understand the real motives of biden and his son hunter, the sorrows crowd that carries the clintons. there's more going on here than just the geopolitical needs of 2 great nations fighting over a 3rd. and that has to be examined thoroughly and far beyond the topic we have here to talk about i bitin will in put simply throw tons of money at the belt way. corridor here in washington at the arms makers in an effort to try and have some of a trickle in ukraine. it won't work that, but that's all i can do. well, i'm maxime real quick here. i mean, the expectation, are you saying this at this point could be jet, could be generational 10 seconds, my friend, sorry for so little time. 10 seconds. i think it might be, i think it might be, but they may also have to be with generations to certain if you're in moscow and in

washington d. c. all right, very good. okay. well, that was a great way to and out the 1st part of the program here, gentlemen, we're going to go to a short break. and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on russia's relations with the west state with ah ah, with a with

ah ah, welcome back across stock were all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're discussing russia's relations with the west. ah.

okay, go back to max here in moscow. a few days ago in saint petersburg, i bought a me, putin gave a speech to an international crowd. it was quite strident. i mean, for most of us, they bow listened to it and read it later. it's very can to the 2007 speech it made in munich at a, at the security confab there. what did you take a peek from it because it was quite strident and it was basically saying, we don't we, you're not the west is not interested in a relationship with us. so we're not interested in having a relationship with the west. no more. this cancel culture, we don't care any more. and we got a foreign minister labranz. i think it was to the b, b, c. he saying, you know, the question from the question or was, you know, in western eyes and he said, i don't care about your eyes. i mean, and love ross didn't usually speak that way. okay. i mean, that's why i'm calling it irreversible split. i mean, they're basically saying we're, we're not, we're done talking,

we're going to move forward in the direction that we feel is best for our sovereignty. do you think that's a fairs summation of putin speech macs will to me the speech was a kind of progress speech and we, for me it's or b as they say now. so ever want to find anything for themselves, or those are some thought resemble a lot of the national support programs and the new reality. there were parts or he was talking about a partnerships for russia outside of the west. but most of all, i think it was about vision for the future of russia and the international system because he was talking he speech, you know, you mentioned in a 2007 that in mind or 99. he's

rushes with a crisis of all the problems and it was threatening in any way. it was more of a p, a t, a, you know, the warning is the sticker in the slash by what you guys told. you know, the parking list will be not on, but you know, people will run uncertainty from people who are disgruntled with your policy. that gets up to you. we're going to go with our own business partnerships. so to me it was a program. we'll see how it gets implemented into practice michael in in washington . i mean, they way we can turn our attention to what's going on in ukraine. there is no way in the world. ukraine can win a conflict, a military conflict with russia. that's just the, the facts. ok,

irrespective of the drum beat of propaganda that is constantly being spewed out. ok, but what is the biden administration going to do? i mean, how do you explain defeat? because that's what it's going to be. and then you, we have the european union talking about, you know, potential candidacy for ukraine. what ukraine are they talking about? ok, i mean, it, it, that it all of this white noise here, and it's a, it's a avoiding realities on the ground. war is always awful. i'm not happy that there is a war a don't get me wrong here. okay. but there's the, it will come to an end. how is the west going to react to that, particularly the united states, particularly the biden administration. go ahead, michael, and was it? yeah, i think was to by the administration, ukraine is just a call gets just an a means to an end to an ultimate goal of trying to contain, as i said, russia and an anti obtain regime changed. it just happened to be ukraine this time . and, and the problem is,

is that ukraine war is becoming much greater and the united states, particularly by the ministration, has no policy. it doesn't know what it wants to do. it's re, it's been reactive. and there is no end game to this. and this is the problem that we're seeing now we're seeing on the, in the, behind the scenes a little bit of trying to get zalinski, the president of ukraine to looks to try to try to come to terms. and because you're not going to win, you're not going to take back crimea, you're not gonna take back south. so he but he's, he's been relentless and he thinks that these arms and what have you are going to be a be coming in for, for, for, for good. and it's just not going to happen. united states doesn't have all that material. and, and in fact, it's, its own supplies are dwindling, and we're having to back fill the europeans, who reluctantly are supply and good. so to, to ukraine. so nobody has a plan. it's just all being reactive. and i think that at some point here in the

very near future, they're gonna have to come to reality and figure out just where, where we're going to be going with this policy because russia is gaining and it's going to be gaining more and, or in the east that now that the war has shifted that direction. and i think basically, moscow can are in effect declare victory because it has achieved what it ultimately wants to do. that is to create the, the land bridge between dunbar region and crimea, and also to neutralize ukraine from becoming a member of nato. and i think that this is what guten wants to do. he wants to set up a buffer in the, in the west. so he can look more eastward, and i think he has basically told the west that the, that, that they maintain relations but on a minimal basis. but it's not going to be the robust looking westward that they used to have. it's going to be much more eastward and that's the direction things are going. that's just the reality of it. and ukraine is just a means to an end,

michael and corpus christi, how to react to what we just heard from mike when washington. michael is a astute and ob servants is always but a you have to understand the russian psyche just a little bit and i don't pretend with you is particularly with you. peter's lived in russia for decades and maxine on friend of this. yeah. right. and center and our friend at the strategic institute i am, i'm not going to challenge you with that, but you don't have to read a lot about marshall, super over others to understand the russian art of war, which is do people think, well, the art of war is the same, the year world over it is not on the art of war and the united states, you 10 percent casualties in the unit, i spend some time in the military, 10 percent casualties in a combat. the larger and over unit makes it combat and effective, it must, it must be withdrawn. it can't function not. so it's a russian military. there's a greater acceptance of, of blood. i'm sorry to put it that way,

but it's true. and the art of war is more about the soldier than about the technology. you know, they don't need our toys, they can quite care why, capably handle this matter. and they are quite capably handling it in the slow plotting hub to hub rolling. ready artillery way that any reasonable military person could have expected and predicted. unfortunately, we have a pentagon filled with woke. i and i would not have said this until recently, but incompetent generals, i mean for whatever their politics, we always believed they were competent. i don't believe it's true anymore. i think we have really, it's over there. and if they can support the regime with a with lies about how well ukraine is doing. well, joe biden is walking a gang plank to a place where he's got to announce we didn't win. and what is that going to look? and that is, and that is in the wake of kabul, also. ok, yes it, it, you know, mike, michael, you know, and not only are they incompetent, the,

i know why they're incompetent because they're just angling for the, the pay out. when they finished being working at the pentagon, they are looking for a board at buoying and etc. that's all that, that's the game plan that you know, tony blair invented it for everybody. okay. public service is just taking the box. maxine, let me go to you here in moscow. this conflict in ukraine will come to an end. i to, i absolutely believe will be on russia's terms and rushes timetable, but russia will be for a very long time, may be a generation at war. and in one sense of the word or another with nato agree or disagree. i totally agree with you. i more so i think we are a tour with united states in particular this very moment because what happened, i think it happened. we're gradually, in tacitly, in my conversations with some of my colleagues, i was just and there was little appreciation of the fact that the united states is

basically wanted. this is to read why not contributing to direct killing of the russian soldiers f e credit, or by providing that intelligence to the ukrainian military that contributes to the killing of the russian hill to personnel. you know, worships, and other material and personnel is actually a violation of least unspoken rule that was only for you know in place is doing some hot conflicts in the cold war in korea did not. but it was never the case actually end of the cold war. now we're going back to this, we're strapped to something called war and was one thing that i think everyone has to bear in mind that there is no such tedious proxy or they're never singular owns that will be plural, you know, i'm forever. a general that might be

a retail issue and not necessarily directly tell ish, you know, to be clear. i'm not advocating for that. i'm just, you know, raising this is serious and stir. that is on the path for how this confrontation made life, you know, hiring come from dish. i wish michael in washington how, how is the nato acquitted itself so far in this conflict? ok, because i always have to bring it up. on december 17th, the russians communicated to nato into the united states. what could possibly happen if they didn't listen to their security needs? it to security is indivisible. how does that nato, how has it acquitted itself so far? real quick, one minute to well, i don't think it's done very well and i think that you're not going to see a war between nato and, and russia. in the long term. you may see skirmishes, you may see disputes, but europe cannot afford to go to war with russia. they have seen how war chicken,

how russia conducts its warfare. it's, it's just, just total total obliteration, and europe will not put him up, put up with that as it is. it's going to take him years to recover just from what they've been going through. and i think that we're going to be seeing russia and, and nato, even though it's going to be rocky. i think they will not go to war ultimately, but we'll have disputes. ok. michael encrypt corpus because we have 25 seconds here . do you see article 5 being invoke this year by nato? no, no, i don't. i think i think we'll sit on lithuania. we'll sit on a, a poland and we'll make sure that nothing much comes of that the the sable rattling going on there. they may think they're pressure, but they're not, they're defending a bad bad, bad policy that caused russia to behave in a bad way. and this our friend from the street again, students actually correct. maxine, we have to take a step back countries go on forever and we will get back together again. but we've

been harmed by the behavior of nato and the reaction by russia right now. and we've got to take a step back from that and will it take, i hope we will take a step back. everyone here as all the time we have, i want to thank my guest in washington corpus christi and moscow. and i want to thank our viewers for watching us here at ortiz. see you next on remember, crosswalk will ah with oh, when i was showing wrong when i just don't know. i mean you have to shape out. these name becomes the applicant and engagement

equals betrayal. when so many find themselves will depart, we choose to look so common ground. with the need to establish something like this a command center. any place is good enough even the cemetery artsy visits heavily fortified positions abandoned by the ukrainian army near the toilet of papa. no less as russia than allied forces continue. de mining territories taken from thebes forces also add on the program. the saudi crown prince on the turkish president announced a new era in by lateral. mom had been sell mom, travel to ankara on the final stop of his middle eastern tour in that aligning use on key issues in the region unco.