propaganda can alter this reality, this conflict will come to an end and it will be on moscow's terms. ah, to discuss these issues and more, i'm joined by my guess, ladies in oslo. he's a professor at the university of se or norway, as well as author of the book, rissa phobia propaganda in international politics. and here in moscow we have exactly a miro. he is the founder of the centre, a political, strategic analysis, scrapple or a gentleman. crosstalk rules and effect, that means you can jump anytime you want, and i always appreciate it. i would start out with glen in oslo again, the media continues to turn out a what i think a very warped impression was going on in ukraine, the conflict there. but i find which very curious and, and i think it's really important to talk about is that people that should know what they're talking about are essentially talking about how the west will

influence the outcome is if they have any influence at all to in force and outcome in minsk 3. now i'm to remind our honey and sir is that there were 2 agreements after the, immediately, immediately after the coup in 2014 on the dumbass to don bout republics. mom said look, well we didn't vote for this guy. and this new government and so they left and then there was essentially a civil war min squan and 2, i put that conflict into deep freeze. and it was a process in which the 2 dom bath republics would be re integrated into ukraine. know, having a lot more autonomy and it's being talked about again. i mean it's it last, you know, 3 months or so of conflict has not even happened. um and why is it being talked about? and is it a way out, as we keep hearing, a zalinski will define and will decide what victory looks like. your thoughts are

well, i've been worrying about this for quite some time. and again, this is something that's well recorded and through history, 100 years when countries are in conflict, they tend to talk off the victories and downplayed them also to keep more alex and the, and this is something we've seen this conflict as well. i mean, you have to present a narrative in which the russians being defeated because there's what's necessary to keep morale going within you can. but it's also necessary in the west to make sure that the public keep supporting, you know, putting the economy on the line and also continue to pump in this building some dollars a weaponry which we will replace their resources here, but also in risks nuclear war. so there's a necessity to keep up this idea that there's winning, but of course also the literature is very clear when it, when finally, reality catches up and, and it's evidence. i'm also coming,

it's very difficult to change the narrative. so this is where the stage we're at now, and we have to find a way out and negotiating how to start sitting down and finding a piece with russia. how can just be done. and again, some people are now suggesting, well, let's go back to russia terms, what russia for, you know, back in february before it is doing in this conflict. and this is, there's a problem because now we're talking about the, me for us. but of course, this is the oldest rounds escalation, this is parn gone, and i don't think, well, obviously russia, you know, it will happy under the means agreement to give upon me to them. but this was kind of a compromise. so the native question, what else on the internal grand question, but again, that was 7 years not happening. so the problem now was from february on russia recognized independence on us and then went back against ukraine. and now of course,

it has been later pilots now in we had a possibility of a peace agreement, but this boston cost us ukrainian is also recognized primarily by a u. k. in the us, in order to essentially we cannot believe that the russians this isn't working either so so, so, so, so this is the problem. none of us, my thought would be enough anymore. because what russia recognized in the fight was a key problem. if it needed civilian administration in the territory last, but you can give anyone volunteering locally to take our civil civil and administration. if there is retaliation when russia would ever leave them. so russia have to communicate, clearly support that they would stay there and never leave. you know, so you've seen this by setting up the national symbols, reorder thing, inter, everything down to the current use to the russian license plate on the car. so if you kind of some for example, so, so, so the problem is, is escalate this point. now that i don't think just the bus is gone,

i think so on is also gone. and, and again, this is something they have to take into account cuz it continues to escalate. if there's no peace agreements, now, we'll have to see what happens once the bus is sold before the russians. the rest will be kind of low hanging fruit for russia, so they can march very easily than once all this forces have been liberated from the bus. and that means russell, truthfully graded from fighting and they're free to fight other places. then it will be very easy, are easier to take a life. and at that point, russia will love even the go should be circle or so my, my, my point is for many, especially ukrainian thought it might seem unjust, but it simply do accept. now, these territories, last or the wait for 2 months and then have you been more? and i think this is the dilemma. and it's quite unfortunate, obviously, and i can understand why many would be hesitant to negotiate on his own favorable

terms. but if it turns will only become more favorable that surely this is a good reason to sit down and talk like, you know, we all saw each other. and recently in st. petersburg, we were sitting at the same table. there was a gentleman from india that had joined us and exactly you and i got into a conversation with him and he said, well, what was needed was a win win solution. and i was really puzzled by that. i'm because why? ok, i mean what, what is that mean? the means agreements were the win win as glen, his pointed out and the cranium regime and it's western backers rejected it. so why go back to something that they reject and then when the back on the ground have completely changed that yes, yes, actually it's too late. russia is a winning the war. and remember the written claims in the beginning of the operation was two's. 2 things recognized, try me as a part of russia and recognize the independence of the republics and the refuse it

. so the war and as i've change already on the twenty's twos of april, the war and officially are all the ukraine coast and supposedly a region as well. and it will happen. so it's over. but what's changing in that on the ministry may yes, for instance, i was reading a statement saying that the russia made progress because of the mistakes in consideration. so of course, it's not the same as it used to be, and i saw it on the french media as well. that's and those are new narrative is ok . russia lost the war because they wanted to invade all ukraine. i don't know where to find that, but actually i was a say and the just, okay, only pretend to take the number maybe. but it's,

it's too late. it's russia. want to negotiate again on the basis it's, it's, it's quite possible the only think that if you for that to be reasonable can do is i agree with the creation of nevada to be, to be frank frank speaking. and if that, don't do that within a month, in my opinion, the war ams will change again. let's talk about a check se, let's talk about both of all it's still good, both journey. gov and the, let's talk about jeff. maybe again, because or, you know, a treaty would have to be signed and maybe should have been the sign already for 4 months ago. it's interesting to me, i mean, looking at the main street, and that's what i, i do for a living in this conflict. you're going there still this kind of impression that the west has influence the or how to determine an outcome. and that is,

that is completely unreasonable to believe that ok and last, and i want to part on the, on the boards all the time. but that wasn't agreement. so why would, why would the russian side believe the rental operators this? all right, because the last time they didn't build their side of the deal. so i mean the, the ukrainians at the behest of the west united states. and you can really put themselves into a spot because there's, there's no luck, there's lack of trust completely. i agree, and i think that's what made, that's a key obstacle to any compromise. and because it would have to be guaranteed somehow, or because it doesn't exist anymore. and again, that you're correct. also lesson from ms to him. because even what i shan't go as openly about my also my leading american officials. i've also sent an agreement, allows them to prepare for, for 7 years, and, you know,

and then yes, so, so this simply be, it doesn't become a peace agreement that becomes a temporary cease fire. so essentially we arm and then go, go back to the way things work to i mean to fighting. so i think this is why i think you rush will be very hesitant to accept any, any deal. i mean, this is just so this is just reality. 11 in which i would have to fight later. now, i agree like that the trust is problem in most of both sides. and of course, i think i q problem would be for ukraine. of course, you could have some legitimate fear on favorable terms. you couldn't, could be serial weekend, rush could be strengthened while the western lose interest in ukraine and, you know, then the congress disintegrating somebody or so what they want are some solid security guarantees from nato, but they would intervene in the future. i think that this is not going to happen so about going can see that a lack of trust and why they want to, but you will have the side of the russians, which is in any piece agreement that could be usually may come used to re arm

ukraine don't place more america weapon system closer to russian borders and even along the black sea coast, now that the spoken so we're just about destroying rushes bikes, the navy, the american studies. and you know, so i think that want us to keep in mind that this is the main and then the main obstacle, like all sides, want some kind of security agreement. but, but this is why it goes back to why the conflict happens to begin with. this can work again because european security architecture collapse. this is why we're having problems. we have to address the real problems in the that the real issue here. and again, mainstream media either doesn't have the intelligence and certainly doesn't have the integrity to discuss it. but it just, as glenn said, i mean, this is all about russia, this russia, security in europe. ok. and because it really in the west refuse to, to interact with them and consider their demands here. russia took the actions that they did and because of that and because of the lack of interaction,

honest interaction with the way they will determine when this thing is work and how far it goes. and they're not, there's not going to be any interaction or dialogue here. because dialogue was a waste of time. we learned that from december 17, all the way to february 24th. zavion. yeah, actually no, for the, for the russian side, the west didn't respect is a whole no signature it up on the 1st time on the 21st of february when there was a, an agreement with the new coach to organize in 6 months, a presidential election. this sir agreement, i remember hold a 20 less than 24 hours without any reaction from the west. after the weather. oh, maybe i had to jump in here. we have to go to a hard break name or break. we'll continue our discussion on some real estate with our tea. ah,

lou needs to come to the russian state. it will never be tied up on the nose landscape with eclipse in the $55.00 with we will ban in the european union. the kremlin media machine, the state on russia for date, and c, r t spoke back to even our video agency, roughly all band on youtube with

mm. i was recently munoz carter to magna if you speak russian, keep your voice down while out and about about a quarter. don't put your human symbols on display a little space each night. all right, so you guys don't talk to strangers. 7 i avoid noisy gatherings and rallies with rushes eaten your colleagues, and perhaps also your friends think you're guilty because you'll russia a little bit

detail glad to with he's being a bank. so we are like, essentially by each specific solution with welcome back across that were all things considered. i'm peter linelle. this is the home addition to remind you. we're discussing some real news. ah, let us go back to the idea here in moscow. and we were talking about the lack of trust and broken agreements and how we ended up having this conflict. continue on please. and so didn't respect the, the signature, you know, for not i'm a from inst one for means to father stand my are agreement. we are supposed to,

we're allowed to implement a design this agreement. do i see as well that didn't respect the basic rules because are all the ukrainians employee is where organizing, spying on the dinner and the eleanor territories saw it's on possible to, to trust the west. i mean, from the russian side. and i can the, i can understand that. and this one point is there is another actor we are we have to take in consideration is, are already galks. because i'm sure that jeff was planning to invade the don bus. in march of 2022. i wanted to say why, but maybe we can better. i'm sure of that. so woo, organize this operation will push to get this with this operation to be done. it's already got because the last, the last many thinks during her, the 1st tape of the, my daily arcs, the crating. oligarchs. yes, yes. and for instance, i've made of, he lost already many,

many active in the 1st part of the this can 2nd 20142015. it last variable and is about to last cream, oregon and color mirsky is losing a never better off. and so, all this oligarchs, we decided to push a zalinski to organize this military operation to get bags are the properties of course want to find a, an agreement, especially if somebody like met of because it perfectly understands that no cavalry is a 50 kilometers and enough of the front line, so it's a next step for risha. and so it will, everything after losing valuable after losing done it's, it's over for him. so of course is there is all this force is the west, the only gosh, well in panic because they know that sooner or later, all of these assets we were told during the, the night ninety's by the oligarchs that we would get back to the u. k. and people, and so that's a very and, and consequently,

the part will stay in ukraine will be the poorest one. russia is about to take to port the industry. and the gas, for instance, 45 percent of the gas produced in the ukraine is in the region in 10 kilometers from the frontline is origin decide to go to. but um it would be 45 percent additional. so who will pay the bill? we will pay for weapons. it's not it what, what to you with with having crane? it's something like your own you were the country was a small population. no industry, almost no agriculture. so for the west, it's, and for the oregon is there is a hispanic because they used to steal the money in this territory and they wouldn't do. they wanted to be able to they won't be able to do it again. anyway, my name is scott glenn here, glen, and when all this is said and done, you know, one of the things i always find interesting is good from western capitals about how this counseling should be resolved, zalinski will decided ok,

and then you hear my murmurings. you know, the u. k, ah, brussels in washington are working behind zalinski back to create a, you know, for, i'm a, some kind of a station of conflict of hostilities under terms that they will decide not zalinski . we keep get these counter mailing trends here. but one thing i've, i'm are very curious though we never hear about who said, well, when this company comes to an end, well, what about the sanctions? ok of or sanctions or forever? and that would go into anyone's calculus. all right, and we look at the energy wells of europe right now. they're only going to get a lot worse as the year goes on. and we all saw the game of thrones winter is coming, and they have not resolved that. the issue of the depends on, on russian energy, even though what i find is directly weird is that they know cut off, cut off all the energy from rush. and then there's panicking about building up their storage unit for the winter. so that's kind of it because of running there,

but i mean, what happens when the sanction regime? i mean, if there would be any influence to westwood ab would be about sanctions and we know about when america passes, sanctions say never with them, glen. yeah. and that's why when you said before that the west, maybe you don't have an influence on that. i disagree to some extent because one of the things that once it's obvious that the removal of sanctions, but you are correct to what extent is it possible. but also would it be seen as reliable or credible and a bargaining chip because if they're move, the thanks is today. even if it's possible, you know, why not put it on next week because, you know, maybe the risk is about something else. you know, it can be also from syria to, you know, gay, right. it doesn't matter like the sanctions can come back, right? it run again. so i think that this is the main problem. so that's why this divorce

and from the west economic divorce, it seems to be somewhat permanent because the ones are going to let them sell for me for the sanctions. so i think that the sanction question is quite interesting and, and also it's the sanctions on ross energy. that was amazing because russian never actually had to do counter sanction. and it's a great for russia because, you know, he wants to be a credible energy supplier. but he never had to dress in the energy because the weather kind of didn't themselves, so it kind of put things on the cell. so this was an interesting move. but i think that if the westport influence here in a peace agreement, the main thing i can do is to go to the heart of the matter. and this is and to look at the issue of european securities, because i'm often told here and also by some ukraine, friends, but there's a ukraine that's reasonable reason to be fair, careful the russian. they want to go cause natal. sure enough, i can understand that. i think you, chris has reasons if a russia we're going to reason to say russia, however, russia also reasons to the west and it's natal. and the problem is the security

architecture of 30 years left off the 2nd half, which is yes, we have reason to fear russia about russia can have no legitimate fear of nato nato . and this is kind of in the argument and becoming higher ideology, that it's like the biggest military lines in the world struck against russia or speaking about containing russia. but somehow this is not a threat to russia. you know, when we even have to speak the language that is a defensive alliance, even though anything based on the country. so it is quite extraordinary thing. so this is going to harper international relations, which is a security dilemma. one shot sites are not expensive during the expense of other this was also the key focus all the time your p and secure agreement with the bill of 30 years ago after the cold war, which was i think if the west will go and offer something like this to russia, that would be a bargaining chip, which you might get some special russia, but you're probably correct and would rush. i trust this, i think maybe they will be very skeptical. because over the past 2 years,

the us demonstrated that it's prepared to withdraw from a lot of agreements, not just with russia about iran and around the world as well. so. so the willingness, the russian to trust disagreements, i don't think it would be very high, but it's not important as forward to making sure that we can finally have some stability in, in europe because again, this is complex. i think everyone has an interest in it, not the continuum exist in back to our conversation. the 3 of us have in saint petersburg is that the terms and conditions of ending this conflict with russia has hall the high cards. but part of its calculation is going to be to make sure that there isn't to repeat this and by over 10 years. ok. and that's why, you know, it puts into question the statehood. the sovereignty of ukraine completely. okay, because we get a, not a peace agreement, not a p settlement, but an armistice would say. and then, you know,

for the next 5 years to nato just pours in. whatever is left of ukraine and they want to started all over again. and nature has an interest in doing that because nato was failed, it is failing. ok. and it cannot accept that for ideological and hubris reasons. and everything else would be usually on this program. so part of the calculation from the russian side is, you know, we're not going to do this in the next 510 years. i mean, we're going to make a settlement where we feel comfortable and we don't really care when you thing. go ahead. yeah, actually if you look at the 1st written, the claims at the beginning of the conflict, it was then as if you cation and then a meter is ation. so it means anywhere that at least there won't be any certainty in ukraine, as it used to be that me, that russia will strongly survey the militarization of ukraine notification of ukraine. so on the point of view on the ocean perspective, the, there is no more possible a ukrainian syringe,

it used to be. and i just would like to add to what you said before that rush i need sanctions. because if you look at, for instance, the or planes plane for risha blends industry plan for risha, they just started investing on the bays on the 4 year plan. so it's been 3 and 4 years. russia don't have to get any boeing any airbus on his fleet. so we observe exactly the same we observed in 2014 it, it'll then 15 that even if the west want to take back the sanctions, russia will continue to adopt a sanctioned because they can't trust the west anymore. and it's a, it's concern, of course the planning in just the prince industry is concerned the cheap production where there are no investing a huge amount of money because they want to be independent using a chinese technology as well. but it's, it's a, we don't have to, we have to,

to understand that russia need sanctions. and in my opinion, since the beginning, when a very me put into the decision to start the special operation, it was thinking about that. let's, let's do the we're what we did in 2014, 20152016. and it was quite difficult during the 3 years, but after 2017, everything was already ok. all the logistic ah, movement, no, i re oriented toward idea to what india and actually in a few months is it will be completely a risk to it. so, sanction is good for russia. let me go and finish out here. you know, glen in the, there is again, this, the western on narrative is and you know, we have to push russia out of europe if it doesn't behave when this is when exactly a similar she's been preparing to leave europe ever since 2014 and survive those sanctions, it was survive these sanctions. it's not going to be

a better rosen's. i always tell people this, the impact of the sanctions will be incremental. people feel it over time, but there is a re orientation last 30 seconds to you, but i agree. and her roster will feel a little they will build up under a corrected this payment seem to be instrumental enough in the process of the coupling a bit from the west not completely but moving more economy towards the east. and that's what that's benefit if you will, from having to sanctions. it puts more motivation behind it. behind behind is precious to shift away from western industries technology, transportation course, banks, currencies and reorganize economy closer to asia. this is gonna be very painful in small stuff like insurance, it's under ships. a lot of this has to be built up over time, so i'm so so that that will become the car will come. a lot of economic paints, rush requests and divorces are always messy. i want to thank my guest enough love

and here in moscow, i think our viewers for watching us here at our dcx. i'm remember crosstalk rules ah ah, in to come to russian state to never be on the north lansky with van in the european union. the kremlin? yup. machine. the state aren't russia today and marty's food now given our video agency roughly all band on youtube. a

with me. ah . well, it shows the wrong one. i just don't know

if you have to fill out the theme because of the applicant and engagement. it was the trail. when so many find themselves worlds apart, we choose to look for common ground. i was reason is munoz cards and that if you speak russian, keep your voice down while out and about a couple don't put your human symbols on display a little space each night. all right, so you guys.