it was just a nice little up as opposed to just to, to book remote because or lose know your coursework useful. of course, i don't know who she's got to know for the doesn't or is that you just have to deal with these recipients and also come with ah ah hello and welcome to cross stock were all things are considered line peter lavelle, the west has gone to great lengths to generate a false narrative about the conflict in ukraine. the cab regime is losing and badly so, and no amount of propaganda can alter this reality. this conflict will come to an

end, and it will be on moscow's terms. ah, ah, to discuss these issues and more, i'm joined by my guess, glen decent in offload. he's a professor at the university of southeastern norway as well as the author of the book, roosevelt b. a propaganda in international politics. and here in moscow we have exactly a moreau. he is the boundary of the center of political, strategic analysis, stressful already gentlemen, cross talk rules and effect. that means you can jump anytime you want. and i always appreciate it. i would start out with glen and flow again. the media continues to turn out a what i think a very warped impression, what's going on in ukraine, the conflict there. but i was very curious and i think it's really important to talk about is the people that should know what they're talking about. are essentially talking about how the west to influence the outcome is if they have any

influence at all to, to enforce an outcome. minsk 3, now to remind our honey in theory is that there were 2 agreements after the immediate, immediately after the coup in 2014 the dumbass to done by the republics to say, look, we didn't vote for this guy is this new government. and so they left them, there was actually a civil war means wanting to put that conflict into deep freeze. and it was a process in which the 2 don bath republics would be re integrated into ukraine. know, having a lot more autonomy and it's being talked about again. i mean it's in the last, you know, 3 months or so a conflict has not even happened. and why is it being talked about, and is it away out as we keep hearing, zalinski will define and will decide what victory looks like, your thoughts?

well, i've been worrying about this for quite some time. and again, this is something that's recorded through history that at least a 100 years when countries are in conflict, they tend to talk off the victories and downplayed them also to keep more ela and the, and this is something within this conflict as well. i mean, you have to present a narrative in which the russians being defeated because this is what's necessary to keep morale going within you can. but it's also necessary, the west's to make sure that the public keep supporting, you know, putting the economy on the line and also continue to pump in this building some dollars. the weaponry which we will depletes their resources here, but also in risks nuclear war. so there's a necessity to, to keep up this idea that there's winning, but of course also the literature is very clear when it, when finally, reality catches up and, and it's almost as coming,

it's very difficult to change the narrative. so this is where the stage we're at now, and we have to find a way of and negotiating how to start sitting down and finding a piece with russia. how can just be done. and again, some people are now suggesting, well, let's go back to russia terms went to russia for, you know, back in february. busy before it doings in this conflict, and this is, it is a problem because now we're talking about the me for us. but of course, after all this rounds escalation, this is part gone. and i don't think, well, obviously russia, you know, it was happy under the means to be minutes to give academy to them. but this was kind of a compromise. so the native question on the internal grant question, but again, that was 7 years not happening. so the problem now was from february on russia recognized independence of the us and then went back against the crate. and now of course, it has been later pilots now in we had a possibility of a peace agreement,

but this was some past us ukrainian is also recognized primarily by a u. k. in the us, in order to essentially, we cannot believe that the russians this isn't working either so, but so, so, so, so this is the problem. none of us might not even be enough anymore because what russia recognized in the fight was a key problem. if it needed civilian administration in the territory most by kid. but you can't have anyone volunteering locally to take our civil civil and administration. if there is retaliation when russia would ever leave them. so russia have to communicate, clearly support that they would stay there and never leave. you know, so you have seen this by setting up the national symbols, reorder thing, inter, everything down to the currency used to the russian license plate on the car. as you can assume, for example, so, so the problem is, is escalate this point now that i don't think just the bus is gone,

i think so. own is also gone. and again, this is something they have to take into account cuz it continues to escalate. if there's no peace agreements now, it will have to see what happens once they bought this. so before the russians, the rest will be kind of low hanging fruit for russia, so they can march very easily. then once all the forces have been liberated from the bus, that means russian troops liberated from fighting and they're free to fight other places. then it will be very easy, are easier to take a life. and at that point, russia will love even the go should be circular. so my, my, my point is for many, especially ukrainian thought it might seem unjust, but it simply do accept now, this territory last or the way for 2 months. and then have you been more and i think this is the dilemma, and it's quite unfortunate, obviously, and i can understand why many would be hesitant to negotiate on his own favorable terms. but if it turns will only become more favorable that surely this is

a good reason to sit down and talk to you. we all saw each other. on recently in st . petersburg, we were sitting at the same table. there was a gentleman from india that had joined us at exactly you and i got into a conversation with him and he said that, well, what was needed was a win win solution. and i was really puzzled high that i'm because why? i mean what, what does that mean? the means agreements were the win win as glen, his pointed out. and the cranium regime and it's western backers rejected it. so why go back to something that they reject and then when the back on the ground have completely changed that yes, yes, actually it's too late. russia is a winning the war. and remember the written claims and the beginning of the operation was 22 things recognized. try me as a part of russia and recognize the independence of the republics and the refuse it

. so the war and as i've changed already on the twenty's twos of april, the do the war and officially are all the ukraine coast and supposedly a region as well. and it will happen. so it's over. but what's changing that on the mainstream media, for instance, i was a reading a statement saying that the russia made progress because the, the mistakes in consideration. so of course, it's not the same as it used to be. and i saw it on the french made as well that, and those are new narrative is ok. russia lost the war because they wanted to invade all ukraine. i don't know where to find that, but actually i would say in the just ok only pretend to take the number maybe but it's, it's too late, it's sort of rush. i want to negotiate,

again on the basis it's, it's, it's quite possible the only think that if you for this not to be reasonable can do is i agree with the creation of never russia to be to be frank frank speaking. and if that, don't do that within a month, in my opinion, the war and will change again. let's talk about a check se, let's talk about both of our, let's talk about turning off and the, let's talk about jeff. maybe again, because or, you know, a treaty would have to be signed and maybe should have been signed already for 4 months ago. it's interesting to me and i mean, looking at the main street and that's what i do for a living in this conflict. and then there's still this kind of impression that the west pounds in fluency or how to determine an outcome. and that is,

that is completely unreasonable to believe that ok, and last, and i want to part on the, on the boards all the time. but that wasn't agreement. so why would, why would the russian side believe the rental operators this? all right, because the last time they didn't fill their side of the deal, so i mean the ukrainians at the rest of the west united states. and you can really put themselves into a spot because there's, there's no, there's the trust completely. i agree. and i think that's what made, that's the key obstacle to any compromise because it would have to be guaranteed somehow by hard power because trust doesn't exist anymore. and again, they are correct also listed from nice too, because even single poker openly, but not also many leading american officials have also send them agreements, allow them to prepare for war for 7 years. and, you know, and then yes,

also that this simply doesn't become a peace agreement that becomes a temporary cease fire. so essentially rearm and then go back to the way things were still fighting. so i think this is why i think you russell bigger it hasn't been to accept any, any deal. i mean, this is just so this is just reality 11 in we do want to fight later and i agree to the trust in most of both sides. and of course, i think a key problem would be for, for ukraine. of course, they could have some legitimate fear on favorable terms. you could, could you say really weekend russia could be strengthened while the west, the lose interest in the ukraine, and then they could risk disintegrating. somebody well, so what they want are some solid security guarantees from natal that they would intervene the future. i think it's not going to happen. so one can see that you know, about the lack of trust and why they want it. but you also have the side of the russians, which is in any piece agreement that could be usually may use to re arm ukraine,

place more american weapon system closer to rush borders and even a lot of lexical spell that is spoken. so, ethically about destroying brushes, like the navy, the american scientists, you know, so i think that want to keep in mind that this is the name, but then also like all sides, want some kind of security agreement. but this is why it goes back to why the conflict happened to begin with. this can work again because you're in security architecture collapse. this is why we're having problems with the real problems in the that the real issue here. and again, mainstream media either doesn't have the intelligence and certainly doesn't have the integrity to discuss it. but just as glenn said, i mean this is all about russia, this richard security in europe. ok. and because in the west refuse to, to interact with them in, consider their demands here. russia took the actions and i did. and because of that, and because of the lack of interaction, honest interaction with the west,

they will determine when this thing is over and how far it goes. and they're not, there's not going to be any interaction or dialogue here because dialogue was a waste of time. we learned that from december. 17 all the way to february 24th. yeah, actually no, for the, for the russian side, the west didn't respect is a whole new signature. it's up on the 1st time on the 21st of february when there was a, an agreement with coach to organize in 6 months. he, a presidential election. the agreement, i remember holder 20 less than 24 hours without any reaction from the whist. after the weather i have to jump in here. we have to go to a hard break. now our break, we'll continue our discussion on some real estate with our tea. ah, ah,

[000:00:00;00] a news media was kind of like, if you speak russian, keep your voice down while out and about a couple of don't put your human symbols on display a little stacy schneider or i'm guy. so you guys awesome. don't talk to strangers. i avoid noisy gatherings, a marsh. we've eaten your colleagues and perhaps also your friends think you're guilty because you'll, russian,

a pacific social with a mr. absolute mccullough with a, with some of the free people would end up with shock because usually, you know, she was come out really who can watch some stuff done with multiple i hope monday,

somebody with a minute and it was up here at the office with a with a sort of a welcome back across that were all things are considered. i'm here now this is the home addition to remind you. we're discussing some real

news ah again here in moscow and we were talking about the lack of trust and broken agreements and how we ended up having this conflict continue on please. and so they didn't respect the signature, you know, for not a form in st. one fall means to foster stand by your agreement. we are supposed to, we're allowed to implement a dis this agreement. do i see as well that didn't respect the basic rules because all the ukrainians employees were organizing, spying on the dinner and the eleanor territories. so it's impossible to, to trust the west, i mean from the russian side, and i can the, i can understand that. and the 2nd point is there is another actor where we have to

take in consideration is already galks. because i'm sure that jeff was planning to invade dumbass in march of 2022. i wanted to say why, but maybe we can better. i'm sure of that. so we'll organize this operation will push to get this with this operation. be done. it's already got because the last, the last many thinks during the 1st tape of the my daughter mission parks, the crating. oligarchs. yes, yes. and for instance, made of, he lost already many, many active in the 1st part of the, of this conflict in 2014 and 15 last variable. and is about to last korea rog and column ascii is losing arbitrage. and so, all this oligarchs, we decided to push a zalinski to organize this military operation to get bags are the properties. of course, want to find a, an agreement, especially somebody like myself because it perfectly understands that no hero is

a 50 kilometers and enough of the front line. so it's a next step for risha. and so it will, everything after losing my, your ball after losing done it's, it's over for him. so of course is there is all this force is the west, the only gosh, well in panic because they know that sooner or later all of these assets we were told during the, the night ninety's by the oligarchs, that we will get back to the people. and so that's a very and, and consequently, the part will stay in ukraine will be the poorest one, rush is about to take to port the industry. and the gas, for instance, or 45 percent of the gas produced in the ukraine is in the region. in 10 kilometers from the frontline is origin decide to go to but um it would be 45 percent additional. so we'll pay it's a bill we will pay for weapons. it's not it what, what to you with with having

a great, it's something like your own, you were both the country was a small population. no industry, almost no agriculture. so for the west, it's for the oregon is or is a hispanic because they used to steal the money in this territories and they wouldn't do, it won't do be able to, they won't be able to do it again. anyway, my name is go back to glen here, glen, and when all this is said and done, you know, one of the things i always find interesting is going from western capitals about how this counseling should be resolved, zelinski will decided ok, and then you hear my murmurings, you know, the, the u. k. rustles and washington are working behind lensky back to create a, some kind of station of conflict of hostilities under terms that they will decide not soleski. we can get these counter mailing trends here. but one thing i've, i'm a very curious, we never hear about it. well, when this company comes to an end, well, what about the sanctions?

ok of are sanctions are forever on that would go into anyone's calculus. all right, and we look at the energy wells of europe right now. they're only going to get a lot worse as the year goes on. and we all saw the game of thrones winter is coming, and they have not resolved that. the issue of the depends on, on russian energy, even though what i find it's directly weird is that they know cut off, cut off all the energy from rush, and then there's panicking about building up their storage units for the winter. so that's kind of running there, but i mean, what happens with the sanction regime? i mean, if there would be any influence the west would have would be about sanctions. and we know about when america passes sanctions, they never with them. glen. yeah. and that's why when they said before that the west, maybe you don't have an influence on that. i disagree with some extent because one of the things that once it's obvious that the removal of sanctions,

but you are correct to what extent is it possible. but also, would it be seen as reliable or credible and a bargaining chip because if they're mood this anxious today, even if it's possible, you know, why not put it on next week? because you know, maybe the risk is about something else. you know, it can be also from syria to, you know, gay, right. it doesn't matter. the sanctions can come back, right. run again. so i think that this is the main problem like the russian. so that's why this divorce no, from the west economic divorce, it seems to be somewhat permanent because they want to come cell from for the sanctions. so i think that the sanction question is quite interesting and, and also it's the sanctions on ross energy. that was amazing because russia never actually had to do counter sanction. and this is great for russia because, you know, he wants to be a credible energy supplier. but he never had to dress in the energy because the west kind of didn't themselves. so it's kind of put things on the cell. there's an interesting move. but i think that if the westport influence there, in a peace agreement,

the main thing it can do is to go up to the heart of the matter. and this is and to look at the issue of european securities because i'm often told here and also buys you bring friends that there's a ukraine that's really reasonable reason to be fair, careful the russian. they want to go close natal. sure enough. i can understand that. i think you, chris has reasons to favor russia. we're going to reason to say russia, however, russia also reasons to the west and it's natal. and the problem is the security architecture of 30 years left off the 2nd half, which is yes, we have reason for russia. russia can have no legitimate fear of nato if they have made them obviously. and this is kind of in the argument and become an id ology that it's like the biggest military lines in the world trusted against russia, openly speaking about, containing russia. but somehow this is not a threat to russia. you know, when we even, you know, have to speak this language that is a defensive alliance even when it made some countries. so it's, it's quite an extraordinary thing. so this is goes

a harvey international relations, which is a secured to dilemma one shot aside, should not expensive at the expense of other this was also the key focus of all the pan european secured agreements that we develop 30 years ago after the cold war, which with so i think if the west would go and offer something like this to russia, that would be a bargaining chip, which might get some concessions on russia, but you're quite correct. and when russia trust this, i think maybe they will be very skeptical. because over the past 2 years, the u. s. as demonstrated as prepared to withdraw from a lot of agreements, not just with russia about the iran and all around the world as well. so. so the willingness to rush to trust disagreements. i don't think it would be very high, but it's none the less important as a path forward to making sure that we can finally have some stability in europe. because again, this is a conflict that i think everyone has an interest in it not to continue existing. i didn't go back to our conversation. the 3 of us had in st. petersburg is that the

terms and conditions of ending this conflict with russia has hall the high cards. but part of its calculation is going to be to make sure that there isn't to repeat this in 5 or 10 years. ok? and that's why, you know, it puts into question the statehood, the sovereignty of ukraine completely. ok? because i and we get a, not a peace agreement, not a peace settlement with an armistice, let's say. and then, you know, for the next 5 years to nato just pores in, you know, whatever is left of ukraine. and they want to start all over again. and nato has an interest in doing that because nato has failed. it is failing. ok, and it cannot accept that for ideological and hubris reasons and everything else will be usually not on this program. so part of the calculation from the russian side is, you know, we're not going to do this in the next 510 years. i mean, we're going to make a settlement where we feel comfortable and we don't really care when you thing. go ahead. yeah, actually if you look at the 1st written,

the claims at the beginning of the conflict, it was then as if you cation and then a meter is ation. so it means anywhere that at least there won't be any certainty in ukraine as it used to be. that me, that risha will strongly survey the militarization of ukraine notification of ukraine. so on the point of view on the ocean perspective, the, there is no more possible a ukrainian or any just used to be. and i just would like to add a what you said before that rush i need sanctions. because if you look at, for instance, the or planes plane for risha planes industry plan for risha, they just started investing on the bays on the 4 years plan. so it's been 3 and 4 years. russia don't have to get any boeing any airbus on these fleet. so we observe exactly the same. we observed in 2014,

2015. that even if the west want to take back the sanctions, russia will continue to adopt a sanctioned because they can trust the west anymore. and it's a, it's concern, of course the planning in just a tense industry. it's called a cheap production where there are no investing a huge amount of money because they want to be independent using a chinese technology as well. but it's, it's a, we don't have to, we have to, to understand that russia need sanctions. and in my opinion, since the beginning, when a very me put into the decision to start the special apparition, it was thinking about that. let's, let's do to we're what we did in 2014, 20152016. it was quite difficult during the 3 years, but after 2017, everything was already ok. all the logistic of movement, no,

i reoriented to what i to what india and actually in 3 months is it will be completely realistic to it. so, sanction is good for russia. let me go and finish out here. you know, blending the, there is again this, the western on narrative is and you know, we have to push russia out of europe if it doesn't behave when this is when exactly a say, well why she's been preparing to leave europe ever since 2014 and survived those sanctions. it was survive these sanctions. it's not going to be a better rosen's. i always tell people this, the impact of the sanctions will be incremental. people feel it over time, but there is a re orientation. last thirty's, i can see you, but i agree and her roster will feel a little now will build up on you are correct. and this is seem to be instrumental enough in the process of the coupling a bit from the west, not completely but moving more economy towards the east. and that's what that's benefit if you will,

from having to sanctions. it puts more motivation behind it behind behind as pressures to shift away from westman industries, technology, transportation course, banks, currencies and reorganize economy closer to asia. this is gonna be very painful in small stuff like insurance. it's under ships. a lot of this has to be built up over time, so it will become, become a lot of economic pains. russian quest divorces are always messy. i want to thank my guest and here in moscow and i think our boards for watching us here at our dc and exam remember, ah ah

ah ah ah ah ah, yes,