ah ah ah ah hello and welcome to cross stock were all things are considered line peter lavelle, the west has gone to great lengths to generate a false narrative about the conflict in ukraine. the cab regime is losing and badly so, and no amount of propaganda can alter this reality. this conflict will come to an end and it will be on moscow's terms. ah, to discuss these issues any more, i'm joined by my guess, ladies in, in oslo. he's

a professor at the university of se or norway, as well as author of the book, rissa phobia propaganda in international politics. and here in moscow, we have exactly in a row is the founder of the center, a political strategic analysis strap hole or a gentleman. crosstalk rules and effect, that means you can jump anytime you want, and i always appreciate it. i would start out with glen in our slow again, that the media continues to turn out a what i think a very warped impression, what's going on in ukraine, the conflict there. but i find which very curious, and i think it's really important to talk about is that people that should know what they're talking about, are essentially talking about how the western influence, the outcome is if they have any influence at all to in force and outcome. minsk 3, now to remind our audience, sir, is that there were 2 agreements after the, immediately, immediately after the coup in 2014, the dumbass to don bass. republics, mom just said, look,

we didn't vote for this guy on this new government. and so they left and then there was essentially a civil war min, squan and 2. i'll put that conflict into deep freeze. and it was a process in which the 2 don bath republics would be re integrated into ukraine. know, having a lot more autonomy and it's being talked about again. i mean it's in the last, you know, 3 months or so a conflict has not even happened. um and why is it being talked about? and is it a way out, as we keep hearing, as zalinski will define and will decide what victory looks like? your thoughts are well, i've been worrying about this for quite some time. and again, this is something that's recorded through history that at least 100 years when countries are in conflict, they tend to talk off the victories and downplayed them also to keep more ela and

the, and this is something within this conflict as well. i mean, you have to present a narrative in which the russians being defeated because there's what's necessary to keep morale going within you can. but it's also necessary the west's to make sure that the public keep supporting, you know, putting the economy on the line and also continue to pump in this building some dollars the weaponry which we will replace the resources here, but also in risks nuclear war. so there's a necessity to keep up this idea that there's winning, but of course also the literature is very clear when it, when finally, reality catches up and, and it's evidence. i'm also coming, it's very difficult to change the narrative. so this is where the stage we're at now, and we have to find a way of and negotiating how to start sitting down and finding a piece with russia. how can just be done. and again, some people are now suggesting, well, let's go back to russia terms, went to russia for, you know,

back in february before it is moving in this conflict. and this is a problem because now we're talking about the me for us. but of course, after all this rounds escalation, this is part gone and i don't think, well, obviously russia, you know, it was happy under them in agreement to give autonomy to them. but this was kind of a compromise. so the native question on the internal grand question, but again, that was 7 years not happening. so the problem now was from february on russia recognized independence of the bus and then went back against the crate. and now of course it has been an escalator. now we had a possibility of a peace agreement, but this was some past us ukrainian is also recognized primarily by a u. k. in the us, in order to essentially, we cannot believe that the russians this isn't working either so, but so, so, so,

so this is the problem. none of them might not even be enough anymore because what russia recognized in the fight was a key problem. if it needed the civilian administration in the territory most by kid. but you can't have anyone volunteering locally to take our civil civil and administration if there is retaliation. when would that ever leave them? so russia have to communicate, clearly support that they would stay there and never leave. you know, so you have seen this by setting up the national symbols that it's maria, reorder thing, inter, everything down to the currency used to the russian license plate on the cars as if you can for example. so, so the problem is, is escalate this point. now, i don't think it's just a massive dawn, i think. so what kind of home is also gone? and again, this is something we have to take into account of. it continues to escalate. if there's no peace agreements, now, we'll have to see what happens once the box is sold. before the russians. the rest will be kind of low hanging fruit for russia,

so they can march very easily. then once all the forces have been liberated from the bus, that means russia troops liberated from fighting and they're free to fight other places. then it will be very easy, are easier to take a life. and at that point, russia loved even the go should be circular. so my, my, my point is for many especially ukrainian thought this might seem unjust, but it simply do accept now, this territory last or the way for 2 months and then have you been more? and i think this is the dilemma. and it's quite unfortunate, obviously, and i can understand why many would be hesitant to negotiate on his own favorable terms. but if it turns will only become more favorable that surely this is a good reason to sit down and talk like, you know, we all saw each other on recently in st. petersburg, we were sitting at the same table. there was a gentleman from india that had joined us and exactly you and i got into a conversation with him and he said, well, what was needed was

a win win solution. and i was really puzzled high that i'm because why? i mean what, what does that mean? the means agreements were the when, when, as glen, his pointed out and the korean regime and it's western backers rejected it. so why go back to something that they reject. and then when the back on the ground have completely changed that yes, yes, actually it's too late. russia is a winning the war. and remember, the written claims and the beginning of the operation was 22 things recognized. try me as a part of russia and recognize the independence of the republics and the refuse it . so the war and as i've changed already, on the twenty's twos of april, the war and officially are all the ukraine coast and supposedly a region as well. and it will happen,

so it's over. but what's changing that on the mainstream media, for instance, i was a reading a statement saying that the russia made progress because the, the mistakes in consideration. so of course it's not the same as it used to be. and i saw it on the french made as well that, and those are new narrative is ok. russia lost the war because they wanted to invade all ukraine. i don't know where to find that, but actually i would say in the just ok only pretend to take the number maybe, but it's too late. it's russia wants to negotiate again on the basis it's, it's, it's quite possible the only think that if you for that to be reasonable can do is i agree with the creation of nevada to be,

to be frank frank speaking. and if that, don't do that within a month, in my opinion, the war and will change again. let's talk about a check se, let's talk about both of our, let's talk about jenny. gov and the, let's talk about jeff. maybe again, because or, you know, a treaty would have to be signed and maybe should have been the sign already for 4 months ago. it's interesting to me and i mean, looking at the main street and that's what i do for a living in this conflict. and then there's still this kind of impression that the west pounds in fluency or how to determine an outcome. and that is, that is completely unreasonable to believe that ok, and last, and i want to part on the, on the boards all the time. but that wasn't agreement. so why would, why would the russians, i believe the rental operators this time because the last time they didn't fill

their side of the deal. so i mean the ukrainians at the behest of the west united states. and you can really put themselves into a spot because there's, there's no, there's the trust completely. i agree. and i think that's what made, that's the key obstacle to any compromise because it would have to be guaranteed somehow by hard power because trust doesn't exist anymore. and again, they are correct also listed from nice to him because even what a single spoke openly, but not also many leading american officials have also sent them agreements allow them to prepare for war for 7 years. and, you know, and then yes, also that this simply doesn't become a peace agreement that becomes a temporary cease fire. so essentially rearm and then go back to the way things were still fighting. so i think this is why i think you russell bigger it hasn't been to accept any, any deal. i mean this is just so this is just reality 11 in which they want us to

fight later. and i agree to the trust in most of both sides. and of course, i think i key problem would be for, for ukraine. of course, they could have some legitimate fear on favorable terms. you could, could be serial the weekend. russia could be strengthened while the west would lose interest in ukraine and then they could risk disintegrating. somebody well, so what they want are some solid security guarantees from natal that they would intervene the future. i think it's not going to happen. so one can see that you know, about the lack of trust and why they want it, but you also have the side of the russians, which is in any piece agreement that could be usually may use to re arm ukraine. place more american weapon system closer to russia, borders, and even a lot of lexical. now that is spoken over ethnically about destroying brushes, like the navy, the american scientists. you know, so i think that's one of to keep in mind that this is the name,

but then also like all sides, want some kind of security agreements. but this is why goes back to why the conflict happened to begin with this war began because in security architecture collapse, this is why we're having problems with the real problems in the that the real issue here. and again, mainstream media either doesn't have the intelligence and certainly doesn't have the integrity to discuss it. but it just, as glenn said, i mean, this is all about russia, this russia, security in europe. ok. and because it written in the west refuse to, to interact with them and consider their demands here. russia took the actions and i did. and because of that, and because of the lack of interaction, honest interaction with the west, they will determine when this thing is over and how far it goes. and they're not, there's not going to be any interaction or dialogue here because dialogue is a waste of time. we learned that from december. 17 all the way to february 24th. yeah, actually no, for the, for the russian side, the west didn't respect is

a whole new signature. it's up on the 1st time on the 21st of february when there was a, an agreement was in a coach to organize in 6 months. he a presidential election. this agreement. i remember hold the 20 less than 24 hours without any reaction from the whist. after the weather, i have to jump in here we have to go to a hard break. now our break, we'll continue our discussion on some real estate with our tea. ah ah, needs to come to the russian state. total narrative. i've stivers i phone and the most landscape div us. mm hm. and i'm not getting those house lamps and a for a group in the 55 when. okay,

so mine is 2000 speedy, one else calls go ahead with we will van in the european union, the kremlin media machine. the state aunt rush up to date and school ortiz spoke neck, given our video agency, roughly all band on youtube and pinterest tele to school. the question, did you think it was hotel with? ah, the eastern is absolute. mccullough with

you to wind up with shock because usually you know, sure somebody who can watch some stuff done with us. we filled up with all the little money, somebody out of the school. we have to deal with with a with it. it was up here at the ball, which can you with

a sort of a welcome back across that were all things considered. i'm here now, this is the home addition to remind you were discussing some real news. ah, i get here in moscow and we were talking about the lack of trust and broken agreements and how we ended up having this conflict. continue on please. yeah, and so they didn't respect the signature, you know, for not a form in st. one fall means to foster stand by your agreement. we are supposed to, we're allowed to implement a dis this agreement. do i see as well that didn't respect the basic rules

because all the ukrainians employees were organizing, spying on the dinner and eleanor territories. so it's impossible to, to trust the west, i mean from the russian side, and i can the, i can understand that. and this one point is there is another actor we are we have to take in consideration is already galks, because i'm sure that jeff was planning to invade dumbass in march of 2022. i wanted to say why, but maybe we can better. i'm sure of that. so woo, organize this operation will push to get this a this a parishioner be done? it's already got because the last, the last many thinks during the 1st tape of the my daily arcs, the crating. oligarchs. yes, yes. and for instance, i've made of, he lost already many, many active in the 1st part of the,

of this config in 2014 and 15. he lost variable and is about to last, korea rog and column ascii is losing arbitrage. and so, all this oligarchs, we decided to push a zalinski to organize this military operation to get bags are the properties. of course, want to find a, an agreement, especially somebody like that of because it perfectly understands that no hero is a 50 kilometers and enough of the front line. so it's a next step for risha. and so it will, everything after losing my, your ball after losing done it's, it's over for him. so of course is there is all this force is the west, the only gosh, well in panic because they know that sooner or later all of these assets we were told during the, the night ninety's by the oligarchs that we will get back to the u. k. and people, and so that's a very and, and consequently, the part will stay in ukraine will be the poorest one, rush is about to take to port the industry. and the gas, for instance,

are 45 percent of the gas produced in the ukraine is in the region in 10 kilometers from the frontline is origin decide to go to. but um it would be 45 percent additional. so we'll pay a bill. we will pay for weapons. it's not it what, what to you with with having a great, it's something like your own, you were both the country was a small population. no industry, almost no agriculture. so for the west, it's for the oregon is or is a hispanic because they used to steal the money in this territory and they wouldn't do they want to do be able to they won't be able to do it again. anyway, my name is go back to glen glen and when all this is said and done, you know, one of the things i always find interesting is good from western capitals about how this counseling should be resolved, zalinski will decided ok, and then you hear my murmurings you know, the,

the u. k. rustles and washington are working behind lensky back to create a, some kind of station of conflict of hostilities under terms that they will decide not soleski. we can get these counter mailing trends here. but one thing i've, i'm a very curious we never hear about who said, well, when this conflict comes to an end, well, what about the sanctions? ok of her sanctions are forever. and that would go into anyone's calculus. all right, and we look at the energy wells of europe right now. they're only going to get a lot worse as the year goes on. and we all saw the game of thrones winter is coming, and they have not resolved that. the issue of the depends on, on russian energy, even though what i find is directly weird is that they know cut off, cut off all the energy from rush. and then there's panicking about building up their storage unit for the winter. so that's kind of, it gets in front of there, but i mean, what happens with the sanction regime?

i mean, if there would be any influence the west would have would be about sanctions. and we know about when america passes, sanctions say, never with them, glen and that's why when you said before that the west, maybe you don't have an influence on that. i disagree to some extent because one of the things that russia, once it's obvious that the removal of sanctions but you are correct to what extent is it possible? what also would it be seen as reliable or credible and a bargaining chip because if they're move this anxious today, even if it's possible, you know, why not put it on next week because you know, maybe the risk as i entered about something else. you know, it can be also from syria to, you know, gay, right. it doesn't matter. like the sanctions can come back, right. run again. so i think that this is the main problem like the russian. so that's why this divorce and from the west economic divorce assumed to be somewhat permanent because the ones are going to come cell from further sanctions. i think

that the sanction question is quite interesting and, and also it's the sanctions on ross and energy. that was amazing because russian never actually had to do counter sanction. and did a great for russia because, you know, he wants to be a credible energy supplier. but he never had to dress in the energy because the west kind of didn't themselves. so it's kind of put things on the cell. so there's an interesting move. but i think that if the westport influence here in a peace agreement, the main thing i can do is to go to the heart of the matter. and this is and to look at the issue of european securities, because i'm often told here and also by some ukraine premise that there's a ukraine that's reasonable reason to be fair, careful the russian. they want to go cause natal. sure enough, i can understand that. i think you, chris has reasons to favor russia. we're gonna have reason to say russia, however, russia also reasons to the west and it's natal. and the problem is the security architectural, 30 years left off the 2nd half, which is yes,

we have reason to fear russia about russia can have no legitimate fear of nato if they have made moxie. and this is kind of been the argument and become and tie, the ology that it's like the biggest military lines in the world, struck against russia or speaking about containing russia. but somehow this is not a threat to russia. you know, when we even have to speak his language, that is a defensive alliance, even though anything based on the country is quite extraordinary thing. so this is go to the heart of international relations, which is the security dilemma. one shot sites are not expensive expense. another, this was also the key focus all the time, the p and security agreement with the bill of 30 years ago after the cold war, which was i think, in the west to go and offer something like this to russia. that would be a bargaining chip, which you might get some concessions that are russia, but you're probably correct. russia trust this, i think maybe they will be very skeptical. because over the past 2 years, the us demonstrated that it's prepared to withdraw from a lot of agreements, not just with russia about iran and around the world as well. so. so the

willingness, the russian to trust disagreements, i don't think it would be very high, but it's not important as a pop forward to making sure that we can finally have some stability in, in europe. because again, this is a conflict. i think everyone has an interest in it, not continuing. exactly. going back to our conversation, the 3 of us have in st. petersburg is that the terms and conditions of ending this conflict with russia has haul the high cards. but part of its calculation is going to be to make sure that there isn't a repeat of this and by over 10 years. okay? and that's why, you know, it puts into question the statehood, the sovereignty of ukraine completely. okay? because we get a, not a peace agreement, not a p settlement, but an armistice would say. and then, you know, for the next 5 years to nato dis, pours in whatever left of ukraine. and they want to started all over again. and

nature has an interest in doing that because nato was failed, it is failing. okay. and it cannot accept that for ideological and hubris reasons and everything else we usually talk on this program. so part of the calculation in the russian side is, you know, we're not going to do this in the next 510 years. i mean, we're going to make a settlement where we feel comfortable and we don't really care when you thing. go ahead. yeah, actually if you look at the 1st written claims at the beginning of the conflict, it was then as if you cation and then a meter is ation. so it means anywhere that at least there won't be any such certainty in ukraine as it used to be that me, that russia will strongly survey the militarization of ukraine notification of ukraine. so on the point of view on the ocean perspective, the, there is no more possible a ukrainian or any just used to be. and i just would like to add to what you said

before that rush, i need sanctions. because if you look at, for instance, the i planes plane for risha blends industry plan for risha. it just started investing on the base on the 4 year plan. so it's been 3 and 4 years. russia don't have to get any boeing any airbus on his fleet. so we observe exactly the same we observed in 2014 it, it'll then 15 that even if the west want to take back the sanctions, russia will continue to adopt a sanctioned because they can't trust the west anymore. and it's a, it's concern of good the planning in just the prince industry is concerned the cheap production where they are no investing a huge amount of money because they want to be independent using a chinese technology as well. but it's, it's a, we don't have to, we have to, to understand that russia need sanctions. and in my opinion, since the beginning,

when a venue put into the decision to start the special operation, it was thinking about that. let's, let's do the we're what we did in 2014, 20152016. it was quite difficult during the 3 years, but after 2017, everything was already ok. all the logistic ah, movement, no, i re oriented toward idea to what india and actually in a 3 months is it will be completely a respect to it. so, sanction is good for russia. let me going to go and finish out here in glen in the . there is again, this, the western on narrative is and you know, we have to push russia out of europe if it doesn't behave when this is when exactly a same well where she's been preparing to leave europe ever since 2014 and survive . those sanctions, it was survive these sanctions. it's not going to be a bed of roses. i always tell people that the impact of the sanctions will be

incremental. we will feel it over time. but there is a re orientation last 30 seconds. you got a lead on it will build up until correct and this is seem to be instrumental enough in the process of the coupling a bit from the west, not completely by moving more economy towards the east. and that's what, that's a benefit if you will, from having the sanctions it puts more motivation behind it. behind behind is pressures to shift away from western industries. technology is transportation corridors, banks, currencies and reorganize economy closer to asia. this is going to be very painful in small stuff like insurance, it's under ships. a lot of this has to be built up over time, so it will become, become a lot of economic paints rush a request devices are always messy. i want to thank my guest and here in moscow, i want to thank you for watching us here to see you next time. remember across

cycles ah, for ah, during the 2nd well, when nazi occupied, poland valinda was a farming region to dance mount of ukraine. between 19431945 members of the ukrainian insurgent army led by stepan bandera. nasa could thousands of poles in valeria, in a diabolical ethnic cleansing process. the murders were particularly horrific and brutal villages were burned and property looted of aline. a massacre is without doubt, one of the bloodiest episodes in polish ukrainian history. my al ukrainian politicians, still reluctant to talk about these events, how to modern day ukraine and poland view this tragedy of the past. and why does

the memory of aline, us to divide people ah, russian lead forces claim they are squeezing him troops from lucy chance, forcing them to retreat east. and archie cru looks exclusively at how moscow's military is operating in the la garza republic. it's literally seconds until it's about to fire towards a 45 percent of the ukrainian forces. every one else will fall to accept the democrats with us inflation, getting new records biden is accused of trying to shift the blame on to russia rather than dealing with problems of his own making. beijing denounces the g 7 after the group announces a global infrastructure prod.