[000:00:00;00] with awe, with me. hello, welcome to wells apart. historically, here has been the center stage for humanities longest and bloodiest wars. and judging by the recent events in and around your brain, that evolved may not be fully over asia. on the other hand,

despite its enormous diversity, has been relatively few ras with conflicts. much of this tribe of weakness was inflamed or fueled from the outside. but the east continues to gain strength and the west continues to flounder. can be asian tigers, heaved themselves from becoming too territorial to discuss it, and now joined by a professor of chinese studies at the university in your daily professor. it's great to see a great to talk to you. thank you very much for your time. thank you. sign up on the right. now let's start with something that is very close to home. my home. that is i that i mean because your plan is to enter it 6 months. you rob before that despite its remote, as it has many implications for countries around the world. what would you say is its main effect on asia,

and specifically on the political and power dynamics within the continent. i can go full factor so we can learn from the conflict are in the last 131 days on one is the leadership stringent rules and responsibilities? are there is a lot of title walking here and by all the leaderships, the address lines are clear. however, the lawsuit of these are, and the result of these hasn't become problematic in the past 6 months since february 20 for the title walking is done by russia, ukraine, euro united states, china, india, ah, every other country is doing this tightrope. walk number one, number 2 is the water preparation. i won't be heard about the song,

the russian general saying by march 5th to beverly wind up be all operations, special operations. however, we are still looking at those in our military campaigns. and there is a huge logistics that isn't necessary. national mobilization is necessary or any kind of conflict. and we also seen the ran into success of 4 grown warfare in this conflict. i inter here here for a 2nd, because i know you have 2 other points to mention, but on this point of, you know, russian generals supposedly mentioning some deadline. where did you hear that? because i'm a russian, i follow the local media very, very attentively. and i think one of the specific features of this operation is that both the government, you know, i'm in the kremlin, the leadership of

a lot of them have put in as well as his army circles. they didn't send any deadlines from the south ridge for this specific reason of not limiting themselves . so where is this idea of them on the operation being too long comes from i'm well, i read this read your saw this video in kilogram by russian gender. and the quick outcome of the wall. and of course there was a mention of our b, a minimum possible agenda that he's the ukrainian neutrality medical expansion. and all the listing decided deployments by the nato in the russian borders. and he was just one of the generals because we can take it

as his expert or private opinion because i'm sure you would agree that nobody can predict the outcome of the war or the ration over over a military operation at the, at the side and the scene is trajectory change a couple of times because there was initially a move towards peace talks in turkey. and then the strategy on the western part seemed to have changed with more and more ours being santia crane. so if i were to ask you, how long do you think it's going to go for russia, he's the one of the best military forces in the or it used to be a 100 to so we tune them. and it has a lot of just armed forces and military operations have been 100. yes. if you have to trace back from does our discussions who have gone to napoleon in the

french war. and so then you cumulatively take all this russia, he's a major military power and we have already spent about 6 months. and ukraine is a very small country also the kind of found forces they have could have been wizard of, in the missions cases it. so it is surprising for me, the war dragged on the wrong time. i can't put it on point figure for the the deadline or a specific time frame. because as you mentioned, the weapons are coming from tight. and the united states commented or are $2000000000.00 for this. and natal are commercial also supply material, so it looks like it more for long. what i was trying to see is that the,

the kind of logistics been necessary for this for long ball fish is a nightmare. the ammunition, the full reference spare parts, a lot of things are required for this kind of fall face a credit with conventional and parents capabilities and the day this is another factor in any future off including the pattern one of course. and the 3rd lesson from this conflict, i would imagine, is the economic preparedness, especially in terms of comprehensive national power. this concept came up during the soviet times, the americans copied it. and everybody else today is copying this concept of

comprehensive national power. this need to be built up before anybody is willing to go for a conflict. that's why russia is concerned, it see self sufficiency as a mass not only for war times, but also for the times of peace. because especially when you look the at the full back from this war and the destruction in production chains, sanctions that affect not only russia, but many countries that have absolutely nothing to do with the conflict in your brain. isn't that actually one of the silver linings of this bloody and horrible conflict that more and more countries are sort of looking into how to leave by their own means. and by that own wisdom and logic, rather than taking ready solutions and advice from the powers that be in the powers that be the change, the rules of the game as they go, as we have seen. because, you know, the rules of free trade and all those international agreements that are supposed to

safeguard international trade, they're not functioning anymore. yes, i agree to position work i was trying to enlist is one of the lessons that we learned so far. and the economic preparedness in the light of day energy crisis. the full price is on the sanctions. they're becoming their time wars and inflation in much of the rest of the war. india is reading tourist 7.8 percent inflation and many other countries are actually both b, b, a person trade marks. and so there is a possibility for recession along the recession. so i was just on routing to this economic consequences that the global community has to face.

and this also suggest the disruption to supply chain mechanisms all across. and obviously it will have an impact on it was already in this. ready i also wanted to say that this conflict, the special operation, had also resulted in the matter to a wall of the handle of the city. that is, so one cannot simply say a whole one. this game at the moment, not at your war, is also very important. and this is where the conversations like this are important for us. so i was just building to this consequences of conflict. i would be totally that it is important to have those conversations and it's becoming hard to tell you increasingly more difficult because

a channel like mine is blocked it on many western last social media. when you think about it, it's not just, you know, they were born in russia and the west, as you pointed out, the consequences of all discretion affect everybody around the world. not only because of rushes actions, but also be because of the western sanctions. now, can i ask you, in a situation like this, there is always a question about who is to blame or who is to be held responsible, and americans, by them. ministration is blaming the russians, not only for the war in ukraine, but also for their own inflation. but it is pretty clear to anyone who is advocated that the americans, a certain point, decided that the rest of the world can bear the consequences of them. punishing russia. do you think that's something that the world is ready to accept? do you see any changes in how the global politics called the global economy will be

around in the future as a result of the americans and the west, in general, making a decision, a conscious decision to penalize everybody in the world because they want to punish russia if you're speaking about the owner of the countries down, either neutral or have been in the bank of the consequences of the contract, for example, the global talk so much of the fuel prices is impacting on them. i would also say the vaccine distribution not related to this company, because of the kobe kind of make up. that is the united nations near to maxing distribution for the global salt, developing countries, even that has been affected. partly because of this conflict. as the many western countries are already, the vaccines, they want to double vaccinate,

triple vaccinate, or do vaccines a 5 times or 10 times until there's been a holding of these vaccines by the not the global lot. diversity is packaging this as a kind of a existential threat to them. but the majority of the countries are a basically looking at the impact of the energy prices before prices, inflation and you know, many of the issues, for instance, the, the middle east conflict, the city and conflict, the under development in africa or in south america and asia interestingly, none of these are being raised in the past 6 months. yeah. so, so that indicates that the whole narrative has been shifted to conflict in

ukraine. and so that is more of the global assault as we not hearing that, please listen to us. you know, we also exist, we have a lot of problems that need to be resort, and especially in tone to the end of me. the vaccine just nobody is talking about the so i think that he's if you're asking for the majority of the countries concerned about daily bread and butter related issues rather than b. yeah. the conflict. so as such, i said we have to take a short break for the time being, but we will be back to this discussion in a few minutes session.

ah ah no one. no, sir, no, not a joke. no, no. well dog, more shrill than what they end up unit 731 was a unique organization in the history of the world. what they were trying to do was to simply do nothing short, then build the most powerful and most deadly biological weapons program that the world had ever known. a production issue or short. notice that they're not able to when you suddenly we're going to put you on more more

general margaret thought this is meant nguyen from all i got to learn much sale. i got ya. i got on monday. i wish to know about julie. ho knew he didn't or gotten more or less enough, jr. let's i had to put the sco their mother on all our buddy bill could you could help us out. oh, boy festival. to go on what the on this the wow she my a new other i'm all i can send more a month or put them out. thank you bye.

ah ah ah welcome back to want to part with street comes to poly professor of china cited at the age of a hello, mary university in your daily professor before the break we were talking about the impact of this conflict on many countries. but you specialize in chinese affairs and i want to ask you specifically about china and india because as much as these 2 countries treat each other with fish. and i think they reactive to this crisis in a, in a pretty similar way. both governments, as you said,

what type type role, both governments benefited greatly from buying oil from russia, the discounted prices. i think it benefited much more than china. i think your supplies of russian oil increased more than 8 times as since the beginning of, of the year. how do you think this whole conundrum will influence the dynamic bit been this to asian giants i you began all of it to be shipped from iraq to us to, to asia in the case of china and india. although we began almost at the same level . china in the growth rates as part of the form organizations program in 1978 till recently been growing at a 10 percent growth rate. now it just come down to less than 3 percent. 4 percent,

roughly. i want to call as medium high growth rates. in the case of, in your we just began with the growth rates and we are expected to florida on 8 percent. and it is hard for a country like india to clock back much of growth rate. but we are doing the new schemes that are being proposed by the government of the day. the current aspect he's you mention china. i mean there is a lot of conflict going on between the tool, especially july, june 15th night, 2020. we had about 20 indian soldiers killed, an estimated on accounting for chinese war killed in this. the chinese government after 8 months declared about 4 people. in this

conflict bart das nous agency mention 45 people in china. so maybe somewhere between $4.00 to $45.00 or even beyond what is important is that be signed a lot of agreements. oksana you mentioned about the russian agreements with the u. s. and the nato countries, china and india have signed several agreements, $993.00. the st. priority. 1996 trans building measures in the we have for also the 2003. i'm not to look at roles agreement because b d c m, border defense ball person. i'm several of the protocols, me sign a bar to on june 15th to none of these matters really. and the killing clea rental on for a whole night that night. and we were actually because if they sign an agreement

with china in future, what would be the consequence of this, like water, it happened on june 15th, i'd like to try to charge a lot of lot of, lot going on. but i think you would agree that the amount of blood is i'm comparable to what we have now. it's in the russians and the ukranian, they extend of the cranium. conflict is far more terrifying. horrible. i mean, i say that as a russian with ukraine origins and i still have relatives in, in that country. it's a huge pain and i think we will bear the consequences of it both economic, social and human consequences, moral consequences of it for it gets to come. having said that, i think it's pretty clear that the americans are trying to utilize india in dire rivalry with china through or through some other measures to

sort of bring an indian more forcefully into the western camp. having seen how the americans can keep their promises being in afghanistan or even in ukraine, do you think india can rely, safely rely on the americans in maritime affairs and security issues, et cetera? well, in the target choir meeting, communist or more, the tor president biden. darn the ukraine and crisis is continental. and so it's not part of the quite agenda. so weren't he was trying to mention is by for both of these and indian foreign policy, we have what we mention as strategic our tanami. as you know, we follow the non alignment moment before and recently the easiest

on the independent foreign policy and strategy on me and, and so i don't think the u. s. ingo nation should not be kind of exaggerated. like everybody is previously a rational. absolutely. even know china is heavily dependent on the american sci the stock exchanges moment. the multi national corporations that have invested in these countries is following the same path as the russians did since 91 and the chinese since 1978. i'm shopping anywhere. well, at least in anywhere in a good place, at least in the case of russian increasingly in the case of china. so do you think it's really worthwhile for india to follow in these 2 countries? a no,

basically i was trying to say that at any country which wants to modernize specially in infrastructure, they need a lot of capital and i need a lot of technology and, and need a lot of, you know, the do stock exchanges. a symbolic gestures. and these are necessary for any country which are modernizing and china exploited this substantially since 1978. and so i was just mentioning that any country which wants to have these mortem gadgets, et cetera, we have to open up as this a part of the globalization. the larger picture i was trying to suggest did is a conflict between china and india. and then the defense minister of india, rental muscle, in september 2018 of these received 2 or 3 wanted in order to conduct

china, india already us. so what i was trying to see is that russia get relations, did i had a lot of depth previously. i know that now. and when that is a conflict with china, we know where to go for, for the sustenance, military sustenance, and so on. our time is running out. i want to try to squeeze in one more question about the tigers. i am, i want to close chairman now the founder of the people's republic of china, who said was that when someone is trying to wake a tiger a he or she needs to make sure that it has a long enough see now clearly the washington is now trying to contain what they call containing china. do you think they use the stick as a matter for, for the american strategy? do you think it's 4 sided and i do think it's long enough. oh,

trust. i don't think the americans are contained in china. both china and america hybrid g tool, as obama mentioned once in 2009, i think this is a misnomer that they are containing china, china contacting us. they have a $780000000000.00 trade in get our share. trade is $8000000000.00. china us trade is $780000000000.00. and every day prior to the time to make 6000 people cross off from the u. s, which kind of, i said was so, and so there is no containment. the soviet union was contained by the u. s. there, there was no trade, no investment, no market, no contract. that doesn't exist between us and china. i don't think there is any containment. the chinese keep flagging this just as a part of their defensive mechanism bar. this is to put the americans in place

by flagging containment pieces all the time. i don't think, in fact, china usaa relations are more stable and more having more stir digit dep than us into relations or to us. and i showed earlier, i do that because, i mean it's not just the chinese for using it. it's also, it's in all american strategic documents that china is a, is a major rival for them that needs to be, that are also put in place. why do you think that americans continue with this pretty unfriendly just for us and it went on not only under the trumpet, ministration is continues under the biden administration. in the recent times since leg trump, we have seen that kind of language. but even the chinese use the same language, chinese strategic experts use the same language as the u. s. dark doesn't really disturb their trade investment people to contact. so what i was trying to say is

this is not aren't in between time and less. heavily dependent on each other. and of course they can say anything longer. telegram or the white house national security strategy doctrine or others. nevertheless, what is important is to have more dept in the u. s. period is $100000000.00 on china, u. s. j doesn't just mention 708 and there is more chinese investment in the u. s. their total chinese investment in india is $8000000000.00 for a 16 trillion dollar the economy, just about $8000000000.00 in india. our chinese investment outside is $1.00 trillion dollars, majority of dark or a large part of it is in the u. s. i,

in canada and europe. so what i was trying to say is wondered about the, the statements given by the chinese ministers and it's part of the, the, there is a strategic depth between them. china, your trade is over $600000000000.00. and china's investment in c plus 17 countries is quite huge. italy, spain, or to all those countries. fortunately, greece and spain, the investment in these banks on board is now functioning in any of the countries with infrastructure projects. and i just wanted say that these are all, it's no words. we have to see hard facts before we say that it is a content for 2nd of all, we have to leave it there one. and one last thing that i would add is that there was also a lot of interdependence in russia, western europe,

or said they did not do that. you know, they do powers from, you know, going into direct goals in your brain. so, but i hope that these experience will serve as a, as a warning to other international players. anyway, we have to leave it there. thank you very much for your insights today. thank you. and thank you for watching cold to syria again with me for