before we over asia, on the other hand, despite its enormous diversity, has been relatively few rational conflicts. much of this tried to witness was inflamed or fuel from the outside, but the east continues to gain is trace and the west continues to flounder. can be asian tigers, keep themselves from becoming too territorial to discuss it now joined by 3 comes from the poly professor of chinese studies at the job. hello, natalie university. in new delhi, it's great to see agreed to talk to you. thank you very much for your time. thank you for the invite. so let's start with something that is very close to home. my home that is, by that i mean the conflict in your brain to be soon is to enter it 6 months. you're wrong before that, despite it's remoteness, it has many implications for countries around the world. what would you say is its main effect on asia, as specifically on the political and power dynamics within the continent.

i can go full factor so we can learn from the conflict are in the last 131 days. one is the leadership stringent rules and responsibilities. and there is a lot of title walking here. and by all the leaderships, the address lines are clear or, or the or suit of these are and the result of this hasn't become problematic in the past 6 months since february 20, for the title walking is done by russia, ukraine, euro united states, china, india. ah, every other country is doing this tightrope. box number one, number 2 is the water preparation of the heart of

the song, the russian jungle thing by march 5th, to re lined up be all operations special operations. however, we are still looking at those in our military campaigns. there is a huge logistics that isn't necessary. national mobilization is necessary or any kind of conflict. and we also seen the ran into success of 4 drawn warfare in this conflict. i inter here here for a 2nd, because i know you have 2 other points to mention, but on this point of, you know, russian general supposedly mentioning some deadline. where did you hear that? because i'm a russian, i follow the local media very, very attentively. and i think one of the specific features of this operation is that both the government, you know, i'm in the kremlin, the leadership of letting them put in,

as well as his army circles. they didn't send any deadlines from the south, which for this specific reason of not limiting themselves. so where is this idea of them on the operation being too long comes from i read this, read your saw this video in kilogram by russian gender. and the quick outcome of the wall. and of course there was a mention of our b, a minimum possible agenda that he's the ukrainian neutrality medical expansion. i know the listing decided deployments by the natal in the russian borders and he was just one of the generals because we can take it as his expert, a private opinion because as i'm sure you would agree that nobody can predict the

outcome of the war or the ration over over a military operation at the, at the side and we seen its trajectory change a couple of times because there was initially a move towards peace talks in turkey. and then this strategy on the western part seemed to have changed with more and more ours being santia crane. so if i were to ask you, how long do you think it's going to go for russia? he's the one of the best military forces in the or it used to be a 100 to so we tune them and it has a lot of just armed forces and military operations have been 100. yes. if you have to trace back from, does our discussions who have gone to napoleon in the french war.

and so then you cumulatively take all this russia, he's image of military power and we have already spent about 6 months. and ukraine is a very small country, also the kind of found forces they have could have been wizard of in the missions cases it. so it is surprising for me, the war dragged on the wrong time. i can't put it on point figure for the the deadline or a specific time frame. because as you mentioned, the weapons are coming from tight and the united states commented or are $2000000000.00 for this and natal, our commercial also supply material. so it looks like it more for long and i was trying to see the, the kind of logistics been necessary for this for long ball fish is

a nightmare. they ammunition the full reference spare parts of to order no required for this kind of fall off. the credit with conventional and city torrance, capabilities and bill for the day. this is another factor in any future off including the pattern one of course. and the 3rd lesson from this conflict i would imagine is the economic preparedness especially in terms of comprehensive national power. this concept came up during the soviet times, the americans copied it and everybody else today is copying this concept of comprehensive national power. this need to be built up before anybody is

willing to go for a conflict. and russia is concerned, it see self sufficiency as a math, not only for war times, but also for the times of peace. because especially when you look the at the full back from this war and the disruption in production change sanctions that affect not only russia, but many countries that have absolutely nothing to do with the conflict. and your brain isn't actually one of the, you know, silver linings of this bloody and horrible conflict that more and more countries are sort of looking into how to leave by their own means. and by that own wisdom and logic, rather than taking ready solutions and advice from the powers that be in the powers that be, that change the rules of the game as they go, as we have seen. because, you know, the rules of free trade and all those international agreements that are supposed to

safeguard international trade, they're not functioning anymore. yes, i agree to position work i was trying to enlist is one of the lessons that we learned so far. as the economic preparedness in the light of day energy crisis, the full price is on the sanctions. they're becoming their time wars and inflation in much of the rest of the war. india is reading tourist 7.8 percent inflation. and many other countries are actually both b, b, a person trademarks. and so there is a possibility for recession along the recession. so i was just on routing to this economic consequences that the global community has to face. and this also suggest the disruption supply chain mechanisms all

across. and obviously it will have an impact on everybody. in this, i also wanted to say that this conflict, the special operation, had also deserted in the matter to all, all the will of the city that he is. so, one cannot simply say a whole one. this game at the moment or 2 a war is also very important. and this is where the conversations like this are important for us. so i was just building to this consequences conflict. i would be totally that it is important to have those conversations and it's becoming hard to tell you increasingly more difficult because a channel like mine is blocked it on many western last social media. when you think

about it, it's not just, you know, they were born in russia and the west, as you pointed out, the consequences of all discretion affect everybody around the world. not only because of rushes actions, but also be because of the western sanctions. now, can i ask you, in a situation like this, there is always a question about who is to blame or who is to be held responsible and the americans bite. an administration is blaming the russians not only for the war in ukraine, but also for their own inflation. but it is pretty clear to anyone who is advocated that the americans a point, decided that the rest of the world can bear the consequences of them. punishing russia, do you think that's something that the world is ready to accept? do you see any changes in how the global politics called the global economy will be around in the future as a result of the americans and the west, in general, making

a decision, a conscious decision to penalize everybody in the world because they want to punish russia if you're speaking about them, the owner of the countries down either neutral or have been in the bank of the consequences of the contract. for example, the global so much of the food crisis is impacting on them. i would also say the vaccine distribution not related to this company, because of the kobe dynamic. that is the united nations near to maxing distribution for the global salt, developing countries, even that has been affected. partly because of this company. as the many western countries are already, the vaccines, they want to double vaccinate,

triple vaccinate, or do vaccines a 5 times or 10 times both person. and so there's been a holding of these vaccines by the not the global lot. diversity is packaging this as a kind of a existential threat to them. but the majority of the countries are basically looking at the impact of the energy prices, the food prices, inflation and you know, many of the issues, for instance, the, the middle east conflict, the city and conflict. the under development in africa, or in south america and asia. interestingly, none of these are being raised in the past 6 months. yeah. so, so that indicates that the whole narrative has been shifted to this conflict in

ukraine, and so that is more of the global. so as we not hearing that, please listen to us. you know, we also exist. we have a lot of problems that need to be, it is are, and especially in tone to the end of me, the vaccine just, nobody is talking about the so i think that is a if you're asking for a majority of the countries concerned about daily bread and butter related issues rather than the yellow conflict. so as such, i said we have to take a short break for the time being. but we will be back to this discussion in a few minutes station. ah ah

ah ah ah welcome back to will to part with street come come to poly professor of chinese

studies at the gym or her long narrow university in your daily professor before the break we were talking about the impact of this conflict on many countries, but you specialize in chinese affairs and i want to ask you specifically about china and india because as much as these 2 countries treat each other with suspicion, i think they reactive to this crisis in a, in a pretty similar way. both governments, as you said, what type type role, both governments of benefit greatly from buying oil from russia, the discounted prices. i think it benefited much more than china. i think your supplies of russian oil increased more than 8 times as since the beginning of, of the year. how do you think this whole conundrum will influence the dynamics that been this to asian giants?

i, you began all of it to the shift from you talk to, to, to asia in the case of china and india. although we began almost at the same level, china in the growth rates as part of the form organizations program in 1978 till recently been growing at a 10 percent growth rate. now it just come down to less than 3 percent, 4 percent, roughly. i want to call as medium high growth rates. in the case of in your we just began with the growth rate and we are expected to florida on 8 percent. and it is hard for a country like india to clock back much of growth rate. but we are doing the new schemes that are being proposed by the government of the day.

the current aspect he's you mention china. i mean, there is a lot of conflict going on between the tool, especially july, june, 15th night, 2020 we had about 20 indian soldiers killed, an estimated on, accounted for chinese war killed in this. the chinese government, after 8 months declared about 4 people in this conflict bart das nous agency mention 45 people in china. so maybe somewhere between $4.00 to $45.00 or even beyond what is important is that be signed a lot of agreements. oksana, you mentioned about the russian agreements that the u. s. and the nato countries, china and india have signed several agreements, $993.00, the st. concordia 1996 trans building measures in

rehab for also the 2003 not to look at roles agreement because b d c m, border defense ball person. i'm several of the protocols. i'm a bar to on june 15th to none of these matters really and the killing spree rental on for a whole night that night. and we were actually because if they sign an agreement with china in future, what would be the consequence of this, like water, it happened on june 15th, i'd like to try to charge a lot of lot of law going on. but i think you would agree that the amount of blood is i'm comparable to what we have now. it's in the russians and the ukranian, they extend of the cranium. conflict is far more terrifying. horrible. i mean,

i say that as a russian with ukraine origins and i still have relatives in, in that country. it's a huge pain and i think we will bear the consequences of it both economic, social and human consequences, moral consequences of it for they gets to come. having said that, i think it's pretty clear that the americans are trying to utilize india in dire rivalry with china through or through some other measures to sort of bring an indian more forcefully into the western camp. having seen how the americans can keep their promises, be it in afghanistan or even in ukraine. do you think india can rely, safely, rely on the americans in maritime affairs and security issues, et cetera? well, in the target choir meeting, communist or more,

the tor president biden. darn the ukraine and crisis is continental. and so it's not part of the quite agenda. so weren't he was trying to mention is by for both of these and indian foreign policy, we have what we mention as soon as you can count on me. and as you know, we follow the non alignment moment before recently we insist on the independent foreign policy and strategy on our end. and so i don't think the u. s. ingo nation should not be kind of exaggerated like everybody is previously in russia. absolutely. even know, china is heavily dependent on the american sci the stock exchanges moment. the mighty national corporations that have invested in these

countries is following the same path as the russians did since 91 and the chinese. and since 1978, i'm showing that anywhere, well, at least in the anywhere in a good place, at least in the case of russia, increasingly in the case of china. so do you think it's really worthwhile for india to follow in these 2 countries? what steps i know basically i was trying to say that at any country which wants to modernize, especially in infrastructure, they need a lot of capital and i need a lot of technology and, and need a lot of, you know, the, the stock exchange is a symbolic gestures and these are necessary for any country which are modernizing and china exploited this substantially since

1978. and so i was just mentioning that any country which wants to have these mortem gadgets, et cetera, we have to open up as this a part of the globalization. the larger picture i was trying to suggest that there is a conflict between china and india and then the defense minister of india and to moscow in september 2018. these received 2 or 3 wanted, in order to conduct china, india already us. so what i was trying to see is that russia get relations, did a lot of dept previously. and even now and when that is a conflict with china, we know where to go for, for the sustenance, military sustenance and so on. our time is running out. i want to try to squeeze in one more question about the tigers. i am,

i want to close chairman now the founder of the people's republic of china, who said was that when someone is trying to wake a tiger a he or she needs to make sure that it has a long and i see now clearly the washington is now trying to contain what they call containing china d thing, they use the speak as a matter for, for the americans trying to do things for side. and i do think it's long enough. oh, trust. i don't think the americans are contained in china. both china and america haven't g tool, as obama mentioned once in 2009. i think this is a misnomer that they are containing china, china contacting us. they have a $780000000000.00 trade in get our share. trade is $8000000000.00. china us trade is $780000000000.00. and every day prior to the time to make 6000 people cross off from the u. s, which kind of,

i said was so and so there is no containment. the soviet union was contained by the u. s. there, there was no trade, no investment, no market, no contract. that doesn't exist between us and china. i don't think there is any containment. the chinese keep flagging this just as a part of their defensive mechanism. bart, this is to put the americans in place by flagging containment pieces all the time. i don't think in fact, china usaa relations are more stable and more having more stir digit dept than us into relations or to us. and i showed earlier. so do that because i mean it's not just the chinese for using it. it's also, it's in all american strategic documents that china is a, is a major rival for them that needs to be, that are also put in place. why do you think that americans continue with this

pretty unfriendly just for us? and it went on, not only under the trumpet, ministration is continues out under the biden administration in the recent times since leg trump, we have seen that kind of language. but even the chinese use the same language. chinese stuff, did you get sports use the same language as the u. s. dark doesn't really disturb their trade investment people to contact. so what i was trying to say is this is not aren't in between time and less. they're heavily dependent on each other. and of course, they can say anything longer, telegram or the white house national security strategy doctrine or others. nevertheless, what is important is to have more dept in the u. s. period is $100000000.00 on china us treated as i just mentioned,

$708.00. and there is more chinese investment in the u. s. their total chinese investment in india is $8000000000.00 for a 16 trillion dollar economy. just about $8000000000.00 in india. our chinese investment outside is $1.00 trillion dollars. majority of dark or a large part of it is in the u. s. i, in canada and europe. so what i was trying to say is wondered about the, the statements given by the chinese ministers and it is your next part of the day. there is a strategic depth between them. china, your trade is over $600000000000.00 and china's investment in c plus 17 countries is quite huge. italy, spain are all those big countries. fortunately, greece and spain them laurel. the investment in these banks on board is now

functioning in any of the countries with infrastructure projects. and i just wanted say that these are all, it's no words. we have to see hard facts before we say that it is a content for 2nd of all, we have to leave it there one. and one last thing that i would add is that there was also a lot of interdependence in russia. western europe fortunate they did not because you know, these 2 powers from, you know, going into a direct conflict in your brain. so, but i quote that these experience will serve as a, as a warning to other international players. anyway, we have to leave it there. thank you very much for your insights today. thank you. and thank you for watching cold to syria again. well, the part a with

mm. oh, total is the aggression to day. i'm authorizing additional strong sanctions to day russia is the country with the most sanctions imposed against it. a number that's constantly growing up in job search of luckily, when was the course renewed as you speak, i'm believe senior mostly mind the we're we're ship. we're banding all in ports of russian oil and gas news. i suffering the prize parade that been happening, and they said she vocals with lower with the letter from, you know,

we're pretty good regarding joe biden and imposing these sanctions on russia. jo has destroyed the american economy. so there's your boomerang, ah ah, needs to come to russian state will never. i've tied as i'm phoning northland scheme, devastation, i'm not getting. our son signed up for a group in the 55 when. okay, so mine is 2000 speedy. when else with we will ban in the european union, the kremlin. yup, machine. the state aren't russia today and split our t spoke neck, even our video agency, roughly all band to on youtube and pinterest and with

mm ah, in the stories that shape this week, at least 4 children were killed in ukrainian, accelerate tax to live in republic that civilian casualties ma'am, creeping family struggle to ensure the pain a . 7 fascinated on the campaign trail, former japanese prime minister sions obey has died after being short find and lone gunman and the parties are but both boys johnson.