[000:00:00;00] ah ah ah hello and welcome to cross software. all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle, ukraine's recent battlefield successes with the support of nato may change the course of the conflict. russia special military operation launched on february 24th has been slow and methodical. nonetheless, the kremlin has made it clear it will achieve its security goals. does that mean an escalation of the conflict

with cross sucking the current situation in ukraine? i'm joined by my guess, got rid or in delmar. he's a former intelligence officer in united nations weapons inspectors in washington. we have michael maloof. he is a former pentagon security policy analyst, and in london we crossed ad wilkinson that he is founder of aka consulting and a foreign affairs analyst. are jumping cross sack rules in effect, that means you can jump in any time you want. i always appreciate scott, let me go to you 1st here. the title of this program is catalyst. okay. what do i mean by that? we had these recent successes on the part of the ukrainians in the conflict. we were not expecting that, but then in retrospect may be a lot of people shouldn't be surprised. on the back of it, we had a part of the energy grid in ukraine. go out, was that a message? we don't know that will continue. we don't know. but over the last week or so,

is this a catalyst to go from the special military operation to something else? and we've talked about this before. go ahead scott. no, i, i think you are right. i back in may, i, you know, i was widely chastised for daring to say that the provision of $53000000000.00 worth of assistance by the united states to ukraine on top of millions of dollars of assistance provided by europe, nato. and the establish on what i called strategic. yeah, that means the opening up of natal facilities in europe to crane cranium forces on the equipment being provided was a game changer. we saw the game chain. i also said that given this new reality, 200000 men just isn't enough to accomplish the objectives of the special military operation beyond the liberation of the dumbass. i've always said that that will

happen and it's going to happen. but denies vacation requires a job pressing a military campaign beyond the don't bass requires destruction of ukrainian military, the destruction of the political by ability of neo nazi political parties and elements in ukraine and 200000 men isn't going to do that. 200000 men was insufficient to hold of the territory that russia had withdrawn to after phase one . your cargo was always problematic again, in may, i pointed out that the russians were unable to stop repeated ukrainian counter offenses. ukrainians were probing, penetrating, probing, penetrating in the russians of had insufficient, forced to do that. and whenever they re deployed force up to push back the ukrainians, because an operational pause elsewhere, russia needs more men. that's the end of the story. so, you know, there's going to have to be a,

if russia is going to insist that is going to fulfill all the stated objectives in their series about the not supplication and demilitarization. then at some point in time russians going to change the nature of the game, they're gonna have to respond to the ukranian nato initiative and put in more resource. ok, michael, basically the same question to you. one of the things that at least i've come across is that a lot of the equipment now, the cleaning army is using is name is provided by nato here. that tells us a number of things the, the ukrainian arsenal is basically been exhausted, destroyed, and now it's relying very much so on nato countries, particularly united states. we had presidents lensky on cnn, admitting without american support. he wouldn't be able to continue his campaign here. so, i mean, this is a game changer and i have to say to be honest with you, there's been a lot of frustration in the country that i currently live in about. why isn't the gloves being taken up again? the reason why i'm calling this program catalyse because this is

a catalyst to step up the game because no one likes a long conflict. ok? they want resolution. ok, and if they can't get it, then they're going to have to figure out something else to do. i'm being very blunt here. go ahead, michael. yeah, i think we're going to see an escalation. it's going to be a type of escalation that will be more targeted. the counter offensive by the ukrainians was one that, that was purposeful, brought on by tremendous intelligence assistance and a deceptive. a deception approach that forced a lot of the russian troops to go in one direction in order to achieve the car key and to take and to take that area back, which is critical to the ukrainians. and the type of assistance that is occurring now is not only arms,

which it's going to require more and then that's going to be questionable as to whether they can ultimately deliver without increasing our own home production capabilities, but also the intelligence the ukrainians. up until now have been reluctant to share with us it's strategies and approaches in our operational it. consequently, they have reelected, it seems and are using the intelligence that us supplies to mount these counter offenses very effectively. and the way the united, it looks like what the united states is doing is working with a dedicated group of pentagon types and either out of a pentagon, central or out of germany. and, and using a series of fusion centers, which we actually began doing during the bus near war, in which you help the commander in the field with a,

an array of data mining. to be able to move troops and, and assess criteria it almost instantly and re direct very rapidly and be able to look for critical choke points. and that appears to be what has been coming from the, from the west so far? well, i don't know. let me go to you in london. i mean scott has already cited michael is already cited. so why don't we this all said in unison here, this is a nato war against russia. okay. this is what it's gotten down to. and russia has to react in kind, okay, nato is making, allowing this campaign to continue. and we haven't seen the destruction of command and control centers and ukraine. that needs to be on the agenda here. essentially, this slow walking is hasn't worked okay. it's not going to work, and it's a, it gets on to a point where, who's going to be exhausted by this here is very frustrating,

knowing that russia's committed 10 percent of its military to this campaign at row . oh, i agree with my criticism. i agree with you piece about also this limited so called limited operation was deemed to fail from the very beginning. if we all to believe that the united states of the clock collective west was intending to allow russia to, to, to continue with a limited operation in ukraine. or you must be logical. i mean, obviously the on the goodwill of the russian president and he's, you know, adherence to the international law. it was deemed or perceived in the west as a weakness. and obviously, we know that this could be done, but you know, within a few days, i mean the bleats creek. i ain't the ukraine by, you know,

destroy the regime in ukraine by destroying the governmental and civil infrastructure, which would prevent the west from equipping the ukrainian forces. another forces are which are fighting or russians on the ground. also, i would like to add the fact that this will for the escalade as we all agree, but the further escalation and the continuation of this, of this conflict is a bearing, a certain risk of the nuclear exchange. because of how long the west might be. you know bryson as the report in the hill and magazine recently in the beginning of this month, it was titled why the, how the united states is becoming more present and its support for the ukraine. i mean, they clearly laid out the plan and all been my understanding. it was the blunder on

the, on the, on the, on the kremlin side because the credit of the big begin, it was pretty clear that once the united states and nato will join it by helping the, the, the ukrainian government ukraine enforce on the go, which they do it will get to see that they will be perceived as a site to the conflict. but, you know, slowly and surely there were, you know, trying to, they were testing to ground and they were moving further without the, you know, meeting any a, you know, consequences from, from the, from, from the russian side. and we also have to bear in mind that still are currently in is more interested in, you know, being a real, reliable partner to us by still supplying the energy to, to what you're going to get to that is regulating that, that will get to that in the 2nd half of the program real quickly scott, it's been explained to me. i don't know if it's correct that this offensive that the the ukrainians are pursuing. it's more, it's more like the battle of the bulge in the ukrainians or the germans. you get my

drift. i get your drift. um i, i disagree lou. it's time distance to say that that the nato us ukraine effort was a tremendous success in it is probably more successful than the the russians anticipated the ukrainians. and i agree with you. this is how i describe it. prior to this offensive of russia was facing issue ukrainian army that was equipped and trained by nato. this offenses were fought by a nato army right manned by you claims into story. this is a nato army uses. nato tactics uses nato intelligence data, command control, nato, logistics. there's a heavy inflection in the presence of international forces. thousands of them. and there's advisors at every level attached to the ukrainian staff. this is a nato army and they hit the russians in their weakest part. and look, rushes can have to answer some serious questions. the defense that exists in the

car code is non doctrinal. it was ridiculous, it was absurd. and when you go up again, se nato army, which is what they did, not a ukrainian army and nato army. you are decisively defeated, now russia chose to trade or to trade space or men, et cetera. but if, if this was going to be the battle to bulge them, we need pads. 3rd army to come in, he crushed, crushed the ukrainians. where is the 1st guard tank army? what happened to them? okay. all right, questions? to answer. that's right. okay, gentlemen, i'm, we would, i, we have to go to a short break. and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on the current situation in ukraine, st. ah long when i want something wrong, when old fools just don't want you to see how it is being

because of the african and engagement, it was the trail. when so many find themselves willing to part, we just to look for common ground news. united states has always had a news in its tax on other countries. economic sanctions are often just a beginning. another thing you like to do is place some military pressure on the countries that you're talking about here. and there has to be an effort to demonize that country and the leader of that country. we have

a responsibility for the whole world. and we need to make rules for the rest because without out there we can do a welcome back to cross sac. were all things are considered. i'm peter level to remind you we're discussing the current situation in ukraine. ah, there's going to michael in washington since they're the, there is a nato war against russia in a collective west economic warfare against russia. i think it's time for, it's a, it's september middle september hearing in russia. winter comes to us 1st. ok. it's getting a bit cool. it's going to get cooler, and cooler and cooler. i think that's a good time to cut all energy supplies from russia to the west. full stop,

michael. i think as a result of this counter offensive, i think russia has learned a lot it, it just as we want to just as the ukrainians want to applaud this initial success of it. it also gives lessons to the other side, and the russians now see a way to adjust as a consequence. and what we're going to probably see is a series of events at various levels and on various fronts. number one is cutting, cutting back on energy completely. ukraine and that area, as i understand it, will be going through an initial rainy season, which will create a lot of mud. and then you have the freeze. and that's going to allow more tactics in the use of artillery tanks and be able to bring on a much larger force as a, as a consequence. secondly,

the ukrainians had an initial success with this counter offensive. but how do they sustain it? that's going to be a question that the natal people are having to deal with now. and i think this is where the russians can probably score by look hitting the supply lines, hitting, hitting and going much more robust. and their approach hitting those supply lines. and cutting off like electricity and doing cyber attacks just ramp up the cyber attacks. and that's going to hurt communications tremendously. and you're going, you're going to see, i think, in the coming weeks and months a, a, a russian counter offensive the counter counter offensive. let's put it that way. well, you know, i, i have to express my impatience with all of this because there's a lot of capacity i have, we seen any strategic,

big bombing for example. not that i want to see that kind of level of destruction. but this conflict has to come to an end, and russia has the means to do it. what is the west going to do? sanction russia? i mean, it's getting a bit boring. ok. and there's a frustration in the country that i live right now. it's time to wrap this thing up and, and i and now say for the 1st time you're, there needs to be regime change in care. ok. you can't deal with these people and, and, and continue with constantly this constant slow walking of the conflict achieves nothing for anyone at the end of the day. and there's an enormous amount of suffering on the ground. go ahead in london. i mean this is, this is completely understandable or you just said, and i agree. i mean, then there's no point in having any discussions with the current regime. and i think the russia somehow jo ball in 2014, when the washington installed the ration i and the russian government, i mean,

there's no point in discussing anything with that. he's good because he's just a puppet. i mean, he's taking his orders from the washington dc and from london. i mean, now in the united kingdom we have a trust would be who, because if prime minister and who during the before being elected explicitly said that she's willing to use the nuclear weapons. i mean, i'm a, i mean, most of the people were clapping together in the studio and this people are not taking into the account, the consequences of this collateral language. and indeed, russia has to do something before it's too late because you're asking us, i mean what, what can be done? i mean, i'm not sure when the washington will accept the defeat of the ukrainian government . i mean, we know from the day one we're familiar with both of it's the explicit, the,

the scribe, the u. s. a. germany, and we know that the u. s. military industrial complex leads to have russia as the enemy, number one. so what else do you know to be discussed? i mean, obviously washer and president, what the me put it wanted to be a respectable partner within the what's the order, but this has failed. i mean, this has failed it. russia will never be accepted as an equal within the current older which is, you know, crumbling before our eyes, as we, you know, experiencing the rise of breaks and as shanghai corporation, organization meeting that i think that will take place later this week. but i think the, this illusions in, in, in, in russia has to be dropped. you know, that russia will be accepted in europe or in the broad to west, you know, lot. scott, scott, you know, in afghanistan, that was, it was all we said that,

you know, you have the clocks, but we have the time. how would you use that phrase in this current situation? who's got the clock? who's got the time? scott, russia's got boast. i, i think it's time we got to take a step back for a 2nd and understand that this is, this is a war um, in war is an extension of politics by other means, which means that by sincerely focusing on the battlefield, we're missing the bigger picture so i'm going to point out to 2 allies are going to come and get that that are coming to russia site 1st one is general mud. the mud season is coming, as is my colleague mentioned, and with this comes an operational reality. so i don't see russia undertaking a significant counter counter offensive, and in the short period of time, that's too risky. it,

the best thing russia can do right now is to retake that on bass and they're going to do that. and i think that's what we're going to see for the rest of this military camp. any season in comes general winter. this is where it gets interest, because in a winter isn't about freezing the ground tanks moving in a winter is about russia breaking the will of the west who support ukraine. this is where the, where all of its chips into crushed the russian economy, who sanctioned, after denying russia access to international markets with energy and the west has failed. we never forget that russia is winning on the international energy market, rushes, winning economically internationally. and the victory is going to be sealed this winter when all of the politicians in europe, who had been clamoring to provide ukraine was support, are going to be swept out of power, have by red ocean airy movements of angry constituents who are freezing to death. who are hungry or seeing their economies collapse. and this is the greatest ally.

russia has because i'm spring when russia is ready to carry out. after they've secured the dumbass, rushes ready to move on with regime change, whatever you want to call demilitarization dina vacation. the geo political pitcher will have changed. i don't think you're going to be seeing ukraine with so many allies. i think you're going to see europe and nato divided, fractured. i think you're going to see the united states with a new political reality after november. and now russia will be better position to act on all the lessons that they've learned. and i agree. they're learning a lot of lessons. they will, they will, they will take the winter time to reorganize, re equip, reassess them spring. and i know you want this over quick, this isn't about the battlefield. this is about geo politics, is about russia. reposition itself in the world with kind of with india, with other nations, just about the destruction of american gemini, of the weekend, of the us dollar, a dominance. that's a bigger picture, the rush is playing into. if you don't want to sacrifice that by carrying out

a precipitous military action in ukraine at good, per se, well, you can't win without increasing the number of troops your choice of a slow and build up of forces through increase contracting, et cetera, or general mobilization. it'll mobilization is suicide. if russia generally mobilizes their economy will not be as strong as it is right now, and they're going to lose all the advantages they have. so i just say, look, you train want to battle? yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, we're losing the war there. losing the war. my michael, that basically the same question because i mean, it gets out to a point of exhaustion and given how, you know, europeans are unfortunate for the europeans have just forgotten what war is like. you know, the, they've got become very, very soft here. i mean, they, they like their prosperity and they had prosperity because they had cheap russian

energy. that's no longer the case and they're going to pay dearly for ending that relationship with russia. because rash has no reason to go back to it. plenty happy . you know, the west doesn't want fossil fuels fine, don't sell it to them. ok. the rest of the world wants to continue building their societies at a sovereign way. they'll take the energy, i think, to date of year on year rush has made a gas problems made 38 percent more profit a year on year. and that's with all of these sanctions here. so i again, you know, i guess it's a war of attrition, but i think scott is right it we have to think in a much broader scale. what that attrition is. go ahead, michael. yeah, i would agree with scott's assessment that probably geopolitical aspects and it time is on the brush aside. and i think that the they're used to use a combination of the elements. they're also going to use the fracturing within the

nato countries because of the harsh realities that they're going to have to be facing this winter. and they're already beginning to squirm and, and scream about it. and the u. s. is not going to be able to fulfill them and back fill them. and then at the same time, continue on with a, a robust production of any kind to, to resupply last arms, half of which probably aren't going to the ukranian forces anyway. another portion is probably being blown up. so it's a question of attrition. and i think if the, with a combination of using a long winter that's expected in the region combined with altering tactics, the rush russians can sit back and just bleed them by. hey michael, let me get. i'm gonna give you a last 30 seconds. go ahead and london. whoa, you know, here in the west, the state of rush, i love the euro,

but i would say that instead of in the last euro, but it's one of the world that's i think i'm going to write that on a posted and put it on my refrigerator and my wallet, it's going to be a good line i'll use in the future. gentlemen, that's all the time we have to think, my guess in washington, delmore and in london. and thanks to our viewers for watching us here at our dc you next time, remember across the lifted up and see that the worst of we're the jesus you did. yes, it was. he's just going to, we know, thought new them me in the musical process. i mean, just where does the door? nashville know,

puerto dumped the car. now that'll go out. you don't cheat his mouth, so must all must over. i was just, i was wanna hard go on. i much enough. please. contact mazda on a thumb candle vehicle. i just wanted to follow up to the shell spot for the wood. lou said, be hulu. you sounds im lash sale is that only the city so alto, william driven enough bus all ears. williams. we've got new to lou. you put island, they really will tell you to the symbol and you talk a little bit in that mr. dsl by mr. we didn't actually we still you still hold with i'm not a fundamental other. i'm almost lost. i was gonna be the most not as must all, i need a mother on the when you got those promise, will it a but i to get all what when you either from of ship is just most washington. uh huh. lou mission, i am will not on the meet all. so the giddy media on it more than food on the not all of the all to get an idea. but actually canadian,

if they have not been with them, the lamps, obviously, just to keep on muslims. if monkey mean they're supposed to eat process that you always ask is more than they live or when you look on the blood up like a group like, ah, i don't know, i don't know if there been any money better than machining. oh wonder if i told her 1st muster, but i still calmly. oh, but i was in your leash. that was a stock. i thought a mission. i attended you guys. i moved austin because i moved to a new boy. you know, i should now still it was of his i saw that when he will because also will, is lucia their chicken? oh, looks like instead of chimney, we should meet, you placed a little better, which i think you must. you do have to work as well to we'll start with the dish yet we bought digital dish dish out of toilet in the culture as you'll look additionally, why not do i do not shortly? well, i guess because they with molest says when you look grandma you missed washes as a white go, occlusal guards the finishes,

you should just have to walk all the way up until in yeah, oh wow. in theory, feature to one that i mean, get us now to music what you will get a you guy will show this just go walk all multiplan yet with naturally scott, what other focus will let us alone must really been to sit on the innovation. we need to show them so building milliliters, it'd be log on the sheet, it is leak when what a slip of the month up on which you to the mock about with the when you look at what this is just look like last volume. i mean, you came in the machine doesn't, but i wish la mutually got daughter of angela wished emotional information as i put almost the totals so that when you mores with them, they will turn up on mr. on the what was in

a madison company with conflict, the much more police was in your veins by with with the headlines on all the international, the governor of rush, isabel, the road, read your a bulls renewed, cleaning up to the shelling of a border with devastating results locals are b evacuation. an effort to increase that mystic availability is devastating floods wipe out the rest of is out of the car, throws off of the death of the clean as of one of the countries,