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with hello and welcome to cross top where all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle, ukraine's recent battlefield successes with the support of nato may change the course of the conflict. russia special military operation launched on february 24th has been slow and methodical. none the less the kremlin has made it clear it will cheap it security goals. does that mean an escalation of the conflict with

the cross fucking the current situation in ukraine, i'm joined by my guest, scott ritter in del mar. he's a former intelligence officer in united nations weapons inspector in washington. we have michael maloof. he is a full repenting on security policy analysts. and in london, we cross the real consult. he is founder of a consulting and a foreign affairs analyst. i gentleman cross talk rules and effects. that means you can jump in anytime you want. i always appreciate scott, let me go to you 1st here. the title of this program is catalyst. okay. what do i mean by that? we had these recent successes on the part of the ukrainians in the conflict. we were not expecting that, but then in retrospect, maybe a lot of people shouldn't be surprised. on the back of it, we had part of the energy grid in ukraine. go out. was that a message? we don't know, it will continue. we don't know. but over the last week or so, is this a catalyst to go from the special military operation to something else? and we've talked about this before. go ahead scott. no, i,

i think you're right. i back in may. you know, i was widely chastised for daring to say that the provision of $53000000000.00 worth of assistance by the united states to ukraine on top of millions of dollars of assistance provided by europe. nato and the establish on what i called strategic . yeah, that means the opening up of nato facilities in europe to crane cranium forces on the equipment being provided was a game changer. and we saw the game chain. i also said that given this new reality, 200000 men just isn't enough to accomplish the objectives of the special military operation beyond the liberation of the dumbass. i've always said that that will happen and it's going to happen. but denies vacation requires a pressing a military campaign beyond the don't bass requires destruction of ukrainian

military, the destruction of the political by ability of neo nazi political parties and elements in ukraine and 200000 men isn't going to do that. 200000 men was insufficient to hold of the territory that russia had withdrawn to after phase one . your cargo was always problematic. again, in may, i pointed out that the russians were unable to stop repeated ukrainian counter offenses. ukrainians were probing, penetrating, probing, penetrating in the russians of had insufficient, forced to do that whenever they re deployed force up to push back the ukrainians because an operational pause elsewhere. russia needs more men. that's the end of the story. so i, you know, there's going to have to be a, if russia is going to insist that is going to fulfill all the stated objectives in their series about d not to vacation and demilitarization. and at some point time russians going

change the nature of the game, they're going to respond to the ukranian nato initiative and put in more resource. ok. michael, basically the same question to you. one of the things that it least i've come across is that a lot of the equipment now, the cleaning army is using is name is provided by nato here. that tells us a number of things the, the ukrainian arsenal is basically been exhausted, destroyed. and now we're relying very much so on nato countries, particularly united states. we had presidents lensky on cnn, admitting without american support. he wouldn't be able to continue his campaign here. so, i mean, this is a game changer, and i have to say to be honest with you, there's been a lot of frustration in the country that i currently live in about. why isn't the gloves being taken up again, the reason why i'm calling this program catalyst because this is a catalyst to step up the game because no one likes a long conflict. ok? they want resolution. ok. and if they can't get it,

then they're going to have to figure out something else to do. i'm being very blunt here. go ahead, michael. yeah, i think we're going to see an escalation and a deceptive deception approach that forced a lot of the russian troops to go in one direction in order to achieve the car key and to take and to take that area back, which is critical to the ukrainians and the type of assistance that is current now is not only arms, which it's going to require more and then that's going to be questionable as to whether they can ultimately deliver without increasing our own home production capabilities, but also the intelligence the ukrainians. up until now have been reluctant to share with us it's strategies and approaches and our operationally. consequently, they have reelected,

it seems and are using the intelligence that us supplies to mount these counter offenses very effectively. and the way the united, it looks like what the united states is doing is working with a dedicated group of pentagon types and either out of pentagon, central or out of germany. and, and using a series of fusion centers, which we actually began doing during the bus near war, in which you help the commander in the field with a, an array of data mining to be able to move troops and, and assess criteria almost instantly and redirect very rapidly and be able to look for critical choke points and that appears to be what has been coming from the from the west so far? well, i don't know. let me go to you in london. i mean scott is already cited, michael is already cited. so why don't we just all said in unison here, this is

a nato war against russia. this is what it's gotten down to, and russia has to react in kind, okay. nato is making, allowing this campaign to continue, and we haven't seen destruction of command and control centers in ukraine. that needs to be on the agenda here. essentially, this slow walking is hasn't worked. ok. it's not going to work. and it's, it gets found to a point where, who is going to be exhausted by this here is very frustrating, knowing that rushes committed 10 percent of its military to this campaign, advil. oh, i agree with my criticism. i agree with you piece about also this limited so called limited operation was deemed to fail from the very beginning. if we all to believe that the united states of the clock collective west was intending to allow russia to, to, to continue with

a limited operation in ukraine. we must be logical. i mean, obviously the goodwill of all for the russian president. and he's, you know, adherence to the international law, it was deemed or perceived in the west as a weakness. and obviously, we know that this could be done, but, you know, within a few days, i mean the bleats creek. i ain't the ukraine by and, you know, destroy the regime in ukraine by destroying the governmental and civil infrastructure, which would prevent the west from equipping the ukrainian forces. another forces are which are fighting or russians on the ground. also, i would like to add the fact that this will for the escalade as we all agree, but the father escalation and the continuation of this, of this conflict is

a bearing, a certain risk of the nuclear exchange because of the west might be, you know, brass and the report in the hill and magazine recently in the beginning of this month, it was titled why the, how the united states is becoming more processing and its support for the ukraine. i mean, they clearly laid out the plan and all been my understanding. it was the blunder on the, on the, on the, on the kremlin side because the credit of the big beginning was pretty clear that once the united states and nato will join it by helping the, the ukrainian government ukrainian force on the go, which they do it will get to see that they will be perceived as a site to the conflict. but you know, slowly and surely they were, you know, trying to, they were testing the ground and they were moving further without the,

you know, meeting any, you know, consequences from, from the, from the russian side. and we also have to bear in mind that still a crippling is more interested in, you know, being a real, reliable partner to us by still supplying the energy to, to your well, i can get that from the link that we will get to that in the 2nd half of the program, real quickly scott, it's been explained to me. i don't know if it's correct that this offensive that the ukrainians are pursuing. it's more, it's more like the battle of the bulge in the ukrainians or the germans. you get my drift. i get your drift. um i, i disagree. look, it's time to stick to say that that the nato us ukraine effort was a tremendous success because it is probably more successful than the the russians anticipated the ukrainians. and i agree with you. this is how i describe it. you know, prior to this offensive of russia was facing ukrainian army that was equipped and trained by nato. this offenses were fought by a nato army right manned by you,

france, into story. this is a nato army uses. nato tactics, uses nato intelligence data, command control, nato, logistics. there's a heavy inflection in the presence of international forces. thousands of them. and there's advisors at every level attached to the ukrainian staff. this is a nato army and they hit the russians in their weakest part and look, rushes can have to answer some serious questions. the defense that exists in the car cove is non doctrinal. it was ridiculous, it was absurd. and when you go up against a nato army, which is what they did, not a ukrainian army and nato army, you are decisively defeated. now russia chose to trade to trade space for men, et cetera. but if, if this was going to be the battle of the bulge, then we need pads. 3rd army to come in to crush your crush the ukrainians. where is the 1st guard tank army? what happened to them?

okay. all right, questions rush left answer. that's right. okay. gentlemen and we would, i, we have to go to a short break, and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on the current situation. anyway, same with with alice the gal i nation classic. it listed nathaniel and chang. i thought them this isn't of a live implicitly, a complication with what i see school for carbonate port backwards, but something, something that might give me a port, a conditional krinski part of it, which it, it said to jeff. i knew the minimum it can be calmer, loosened up, and the commoner somebody mp community that the comma a lovely,

not all like it's supposed to this out like he's gonna affect it. or only out of that, i need it with us. that's a disclaimer. but how much the building does spook moving forward with this looking at them during the summer because i see that it was there, but we didn't. i will shoot you a copy on that, but we're can now that credit was it was the case and i was there, then you billed us over for you will that they should i see it in august of chicago . there were still a when a look forward to talking to you all that technology should work for people. robot must obey the orders given by human beings, except where such order that conflict with the 1st law show your identification. we

should be very careful about our personal intelligence at the point, obviously is to great track rather than fear a job with artificial intelligence. real, somebody with a robot must protect this phone existence with ah, welcome back across stock where all things are considered on peter level to remind you we're discussing the current situation in ukraine. ah, ah. okay, it's good to michael in washington. since there the, there is a nato war against russia in a collective west economic warfare against russia. i think it's time, i'm, it's,

it's september middle september hearing in russia winter comes to us 1st. okay. it's getting a bit cool. it's going to get cooler, and cooler and cooler. i think it's a good time to cut all energy supplies from russia to the west. full stop, michael. i think as a result of this counter offensive, i think russia has learned a lot. it it just as we want to just as the ukrainians want to applaud this initial success of it. it also gives lessons to the other side. and the russians now see a way to adjust as a consequence. and what we're going to probably see is a series of events at various levels and on various fronts. number one is cutting, cutting back on energy completely ukraine and that area, as i understand that we'll be going through an initial rainy season,

which will create a lot of mud. and then you have the freeze. and that's going to allow more tactics in the use of artillery tanks and be able to bring on a much larger force as a, as a consequence. secondly, the ukrainians had an initial success with this counter offensive. but how do they sustain it? that's going to be a question that the natal people are having to deal with now. and i think this is where the russians can probably score by look hitting the supply lines, hitting, hitting and going much more robust. and their approach hitting those supply lines. and cutting off like electricity and doing cyber attacks and just ramp up the cyber attacks. and that's going to hurt communications

tremendously. and you're going, you're going to see, i think, in the coming weeks and months a, a, a russian counter offensive the counter counter offensive list. but that way, well, you know, i, i have to express my impatience with all of this because there's a lot of capacity i have, we seen any strategic, big bombing for example. not that i want to see that kind of level of destruction. but this conflict has to come to an end, and russia has the means to do it. what is the west going to do? sanction russia? i mean, it's getting a bit boring. ok. and there's a frustration in the country that i live right now. it's time to wrap this thing up and, and i and now say for the 1st time you're, there needs to be regime change in care. ok, you can't deal with these people and, and, and continue with cancer. this constant slow walking of the conflict achieves nothing for anyone at the end of the day,

and there's an enormous amount of suffering on the ground. go ahead in london. i mean, this is, this is completely understandable or you just said, and i agree. i mean, then there's no point in having any discussions with the current regime. and i think that russia somehow jo bowl in 2014, when the washington installed the ration i and the russian government, i mean there's no point in discussing anything with that. he's good because he's just a puppet. i mean, he's taking his orders from the washington dc and from bonham. i mean, now in the united kingdom we have a trust would be who, because if prime minister and who during the before being elected explicitly said that she's willing to use the nuclear weapons. i mean, i'm trying to says that, i mean, most of the people were clapping together in the studio, and this people are not taking into the account, the consequences of this collateral language. and indeed,

russia has to do something before it's too late because you're asking us, i mean what, what can be done? i mean, i'm not sure when the washington will accept the defeat of the ukrainian government . i mean, we know from the day one we're familiar with both of it's the explicit, the describe, the u. s. a. germany, and we know that the u. s. military industrial complex leads to have russia as the enemy number one. so what else do you know to be discussed? i mean, obviously washer and president, what the me put it wanted to be a respectable partner within the what's the order, but this has failed. i mean, this has failed it. russia will never be accepted as an equal within the current older which is, you know, crumbling before our own eyes, as we, you know,

experiencing the rise of breaks and shanghai corporation organization meeting that the stating that will take place later this week. but i think that this illusions in, in, in, in russia has to be dropped. you know, that russia will be accepted in europe or in the broad to west, you know, lot. scott, scott, you know, in afghanistan, that was, it was always said that, you know, you have the clocks, but we have the time. how would you use that phrase in this current situation? who's got the clock? who's got the time? scott, russia's got boast. i, i think it's time we got to take a step back for a 2nd and understand that this is, this is a war. i'm in wars, an extension of politics by other means, which means that by sincerely focusing on the battlefield, we're missing the bigger picture. so i'm going to point out to 2 allies are going

to come and get that are coming to russia side. first one is general mud. the mud season is coming as a is my colleague mentioned, and with this comes an operational reality. and so i don't see russia undertaking a significant counter counter offensive, and in the short period of time, a to risky of it, the best thing russia can do right now is to retake that on bass and they're going to do that. and i think that's what we're going to see for the rest of this military camp. any season incomes general winner. this is where it gets interest. because general winner isn't about freezing the ground tanks moving in a winter is about russia breaking the will of the west. we support ukraine. this is where the literally all of its chips into crush the russian economy through sanctions, through denying russia access to international markets with energy and the west has failed. we never forget that russia is winning on the international energy market,

rushes, winning economically internationally. and the victory is going to be a sealed this winter when all of the politicians in europe, who have been clamoring to provide ukraine with support, are going to be swept out of power by red ocean airy movements of angry constituents who are freezing to death. who are hungry or seeing their economies collapse. and this is the greatest ally. russia has because i'm spring when russia is ready to carry out after they've secured the dumbass, rushes ready to move on with regime change, whatever you want to call demilitarization dina vacation. the geo political pitcher will have changed. i don't think you're going to be seen ukraine with so many allies. i think you're going to see europe and native divided, fractured. i think you're going to see the united states with a new political reality after november. and now russia will be better position to act on all the lessons that they've learned, and i agree, they're learning a lot of lessons. they will, they will,

they will take the wintertime to reorganize, re equip, reassess m spring. and i know you want this over quick. this isn't about the battlefield. this is about geo politics, is about russia. reposition itself in the world with dinah with india, with other nations, just about the destruction american gemini, of a weakening of the u. s. dollar. a dominance that's a bigger picture, the rush is playing into. if you don't want to sacrifice that by carrying out a precipitous military action in ukraine at a 1st well, you can't win without increasing the number of troops. you have a choice of either slow and build up of forces through increase contracting, et cetera, or general mobilization. it'll mobilization is suicide. if russia generally mobilizes their economy will not be as strong as it is right now, and they're going to lose all the advantages they have. so i just say, look, you train want to battle? yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, we're losing the war there, losing the war. my michael, that basically the same question because i mean, it gets out to

a point of exhaustion and given how, you know, europeans are unfortunate for the europeans have just forgotten what war is like, you know, the, they've got become very, very soft here. i mean they, they like their prosperity and they had prosperity because they had cheap russian energy. that's no longer the case and they're going to pay dearly for ending that relationship with russia. because rash has no reason to go back to it. plenty happy . you know, the west doesn't want fossil fuels fine, don't sell it to them. okay. the rest of the world wants to continue building their societies at a sovereign way. they'll take the energy. i think to date of year on year rush has made a gas problems made 38 percent more profit a year on year and that's with all of these sanctions here. so i again, you know, i guess it's a war of attrition, but i think scott is right it, we have to think in a much broader scale. what that attrition is. go ahead, michael. yeah,

i would agree with that scott's assessment. but from that for the geopolitical aspects and at it time is on the brush aside. and i think that the they're used to can use a combination of the elements. they're also going to use the, the fracturing within the nato countries because of the harsh realities that they're gonna have to be facing this winter. and they're already beginning to squirm and, and scream about it. and the u. s. is not going to be able to fulfill them and back fill them and, and then at the same time, continue on with a, a, a robust production of any kind to, to resupply last arms, half of which probably aren't going to the ukranian forces anyway. and another portion is probably being blown up. so it's a question of attrition. and i think if the, with a combination of using

a long winter that's expected in the region are combined with altering tactics. the rush russians can sit back and, and just bleed them by. hey, michael, let me get that. it's going to, i'm going to give adrian last 30 seconds. go ahead in london. well, you know, here in the west, they say that in the russia, the euro, but i would say that instead of in these big lost euro, but it won the world. i think i'm going to write that on a posted and put it on my refrigerator. and my wallet, it's going to be a good line i'll use in the future. gentlemen, that's all the time we have. want to thank my guest in washington, delmore, and in london. and thanks to our viewers for watching us here, are the see you next time. remember, crawford,

what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have. it's crazy confrontation, let it be an arms race, movies on offense, very dramatic development, only personally and getting to resist. i don't see how that strategy will be successful, very political time, time to sit down and talk a misty absolutely. well, with some of the free people. good enough to check because usually i'm not sure. i'm not really going on with some stuff with

the little bugging somebody wrote up with to deal with with a community then it'll, as of yet them will up which can you, with a sort of

a bad lines on, on the international. russia warns that ukraine's latest security proposals to it's western allies are a direct path to world war 3. you chief underlay on the state of the union speech is all about ukraine, potentially ignoring that have skyrocketing inflation and energy deficit and other issues affecting ordinary everyday people. up alot. also in the program, china's president prepares to make his 1st trip overseas since the pandemic. he's heading to was pakistan for the summit of the shanghai cooperation organization. our correspondents are on.