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hello and welcome to cross thought were all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle, ukraine's recent battlefield successes with the support of nato may change the course of the conflict. russia special military operation launched on february 24th has been slow and methodical. none the less the kremlin has made it clear it will cheap it security goals. does that mean an escalation of the conflict with cross sucking the current situation in ukraine? i'm joined by my guess. got rid or in delmar. he's a former intelligence officer in united nations weapons inspectors in washington. we have michael maloof. he is a former pentagon security policy analyst, and in london we crossed ad wilkinson that he is founder of aka consulting and a foreign affairs analyst. our job in cross acros. in fact, that means you can jump in any time you want. i always appreciate scott, let me go to you 1st here. the title of this program is catalyst. okay. what do i

mean by that? we had these recent successes on the part of the ukrainians in the conflict. we were not expecting that, but then in retrospect, maybe a lot of people shouldn't be surprised. on the back of it, we had a part of the energy grid in ukraine. go out, was that a message? we don't know that will continue. we don't know. but over the last week or so, is this a catalyst to go from the special military operation to something else? and we've talked about this before. go ahead scott. no, i, i think you, you're right. i back in may. i know i was widely chastised for daring to say that the provision of $53000000000.00 worth of assistance by the united states to ukraine on top of millions of dollars of assistance provided by europe, nato, and the establish on what i called strategic. yeah. that means the opening up of

natal facilities in europe to crane cranium forces on the equipment being provided was a game changer. and we saw the game chain. i also said that given this new reality, 200000 men just isn't enough to accomplish the objectives of the special military operation beyond the liberation of the don't boss. i've always said that that will happen and it's going to happen. but denies vacation requires a pressing a military campaign beyond the don't bass requires destruction of ukrainian military, the destruction of the political by ability of neo nazi political parties and elements in ukraine and 200000 men isn't going to do that. 200000 men was insufficient to hold of the territory that russia had withdrawn to after phase one . your cargo was always problematic. again, in may, i pointed out that the russians were unable to stop repeated ukrainian counter

offenses. ukrainians were probing, penetrating, probing, penetrating in the russians of had insufficient, forced to do that. and whenever they re deployed force up to well push back the ukrainians because an operational pause elsewhere, russia needs more men. that's the end of the story. so i, you know, there's going to have to be a, if russia is going to insist that is going to fulfill all the stated objectives in their series about d not to vacation and demilitarization. then at some point in time russians going to change the nature of the game, they're going to respond to the ukranian nato initiative and put in more resource. ok. michael, basically the same question to you. one of the things that it least i've come across is that a lot of the equipment now, the cleaning army is using is name is provided by nato here. that tells us a number of things the, the ukrainian arsenal is basically been exhausted, destroyed. and now it's relying very much so on nato countries,

particularly united states. we had presidents lensky on cnn, admitting without american support. he wouldn't be able to continue his campaign here. so, i mean, this is a game changer, and i have to say to be honest with you, there's been a lot of frustration in the country that i currently live in about. why isn't the gloves being taken up again, the reason why i'm calling this program catalyst because this is a catalyst to step up the game because no one likes a long conflict. ok? they want resolution. ok. and if they can't get it, then they're gonna have to figure out something else to do. i'm being very blunt here. go ahead, michael. yeah, i think we're going to see an escalation. it's going to be the type of escalation that will be more targeted. the counter offensive by the ukrainians was one that that was purposeful, brought on by tremendous intelligence assistance and

a deceptive. a deception approach that forced a lot of the russian troops to go in one direction in order to achieve the car key and to take and to take that area back, which is critical to the ukrainians. and the type of assistance that is carrying now is not only arms, which it's going to require more and then that's going to be questionable as to whether they can ultimately deliver without increasing our own home production capabilities, but also the intelligence the ukrainians. up until now have been reluctant to share with the us it's strategies and approaches and are operationally consequently, they have reelected, it seems and are using the intelligence that us supplies to mount these counter offenses very effectively. and the way the united,

it looks like what the united states is doing is working with a dedicated group of pentagon types and either out of pentagon, central or out of germany. and, and using a series of fusion centers, which we actually began doing during the bus near war, in which you helped the commander in the field with a, an array of data mining. to be able to move troops and, and assess criteria almost instantly and re direct very rapidly and be able to look for critical choke points. and that appears to be what has been coming from the, from the west so far? well, i don't know. let me go to you in london. i mean scott has already cited michael is already cited. so why don't we this all said in unison here, this is a nato war against russia. ok, this is what it's gotten down to. and russia has to react in kind, ok,

nato is making, allowing this campaign to continue. and we haven't seen destruction of command and control centers and ukraine. that needs to be on the agenda here. essentially, this slow walking is as it worked. ok, it's not going to work and it's it gets on to a point where, who is going to be exhausted by this here is very frustrating. knowing that rush has committed 10 percent of its military to this campaign ad ro. oh, i agree with my criticism. i agree with you piece about also this limited so called limited operation was deemed to fail from the very beginning. if we ought to believe that the united states of the clock collective west was intending to allow russia to, to, to continue with a limited operation in ukraine. or you must be logical. i mean, obviously the on the go good will of the russian president and he's, you know,

adherence to the international law, was deemed or perceiving the worst as a weakness. and obviously, we know that this could be done, but you know, within a few days, i mean the blue screen, i ain't the ukraine by and, you know, destroy the regime in ukraine by destroying the governmental and civil infrastructure, which would prevent the west from equipping the ukrainian forces, another forces are which are fighting or russians on the ground. also, i would like to add the fact that this will for the escalade as we all agree, but the father escalation and the continuation of this of this conflict is a bearing, a certain risk of the nuclear exchange. because of how long the west might be. you

know bryson as the report in the hill and magazine recently in the beginning of this month, it was titled why of how the united states is becoming more bronson and its support for the ukraine. i mean, they clearly laid out the plan and all been my understanding. it was the blunder on the, on the, on the, on the kremlin side because the credit of the big begin, it was pretty clear that once the united states and nato will join it by helping the, the, the ukrainian government ukraine enforce on the go, which they do it will get to see that they will be perceived as a site to the conflict, but you know, slowly and surely they were, you know, trying to, they were testing to ground and they were moving further without the, you know, meeting any a, you know, consequences from, from the, from the russian side. and we also have to bear in mind that still a little in is more interested in, you know, being a real,

reliable partner to us by still supplying the energy to, to your well, i get a get that is regulated that, that will get to that in the 2nd half of the park real quickly scott, it's been explained to me. i don't know if it's correct that this offensive that the, the ukrainians are pursuing. it's more, it's more like the battle of the bulge and the ukrainians, or the germans. you get my drift, i get your drift. um i, i disagree. look, it's time distance to say that that the nato us ukraine effort was a tremendous success in it is probably more successful than the the russians anticipated the ukrainians. and i agree with you. this is how i describe it. prior to this offensive of russia was facing issue ukrainian army that was equipped and trained by nato. this offenses were fought by a nato army right manned by you, st. into story. this is a nato army uses. nato tactics uses nato intelligence,

nato commander, control natal logistics. there's a heavy influx in the presence of international forces. thousands of them. and there's advisors at every level attached to the ukrainian staff. this is a nato army and they hit the russians in their weakest part. and look, rushes can have to answer some serious questions. the defense that exists in the car code is non doctrinal. it was ridiculous, it was absurd, heard. and when you go up again, se nato army, which is what they did, not a ukrainian army and nato army, you are decisively defeated. now russia chose to trade to trade space for men, et cetera. but if this was going to be the battle of the bulge, then we need pads. 3rd army to come in and crush, crush the ukrainians. where is the 1st guard tank army? what happened to them? ok, all right, questions want to answer, and that's right. ok gentlemen, i'm, we, we, i, we have to go to a short break and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on the current situation. anyway,

same with for i was told before the morning, i'm going to mirror more, there was a call watching it, but at the moment today in that area. so, but there isn't any was this is on the horse. don't bedroom. mm. in a residential i'm, i'm just new list i'm wondering is do it, but i'm about to leave them. i just did them absolutely. capital e, a massive machine a my will come and get a slight bit of air e, but as a whole of the roof. so john wooten is allen,

she'll get a bottle of c j a . she'll on that because i like it. that was in the to me. okay. yes, special c merchant, the news you need to national team that we're, i one mission jamal, up on your mind that i'm, that was the window. it was models has, would that if machine is that it wasn't a complex from mac mall, but just put a shield or to shun or my last to boil, go to die, get it with the she just has a surface. doesn't if this on this a balance of nitro, when you get a while and good as well as a sequence, you almost eliminate that we didn't lose distant machine that but on the 10 year old may complex, you know, bonuses, video, and you've taught them question you pastor though i must be in the to school, it was a boy. i mean, we have will look at a bigger of a chest is to know,

but i mean, you are going up at the most dental washington that addition. okay. okay. will i bring it in there? and what of those are the virginia before the he'd sierra video, i'm going to look over my video more going his way way. motion. either way, when you did i put a key when you got a little on cobra tours was that your brother sit in motion washed in the past now to stay below ryan is actually one of those. are the principal belonging as of asia. yeah. push oxley, me come over to see whether it was a street mia nor traditional silicon, a sewer kind of stuff. just want to sure. i see where mm. ebersole or a bill that i saw was theresa. i showed a man that owners are cut off in the middle of the said she had the same it about them as well. yeah. yeah. national bunger custodians of it.

mm mm hm. mm hm. mm mm. welcome back. across that were all things considered on peter lavelle to him and you were discussing the current situation in ukraine. ah, ah. okay, go to michael in washington. since they're the, there is a nato war against russia in a collective west um economic warfare against russia. i think it's time i am it's, it's september middle september hearing in russia winter comes to us 1st. okay. it's getting a bit cool. it's going to get cooler, and cooler and cooler. i think it's a good time to cut all energy supplies from russia to the west. forced up,

michael i think as a result of this counter offensive, i think russia has learned a lot it just as we want to just as the ukrainians want to applaud this initial success of it. it also gives lessons to the other side, and the russians now see a way to adjust as a consequence. and what we're going to probably see is a series of events at various levels and on various fronts. number one is cutting, cutting back on energy completely. ukraine and that area, as i understand that we'll be going through an initial rainy season, which will create a lot of mud. and then you have the freeze. and that's going to allow more tactics in the use of artillery tanks and be able to bring on a much larger force as a, as a consequence. secondly,

the ukrainians had an initial success with this counter offensive. but how do they sustain it? that's going to be a question that the natal people are having to deal with now. and i think this is where the russians can probably score by look hitting the supply lines, hitting, hitting and going much more robust. and their approach hitting those supply lines. and cutting off like electricity and doing cyber attacks and just ramp up the cyber attacks. and that's going to hurt communications tremendously. and you're going, you're going to see, i think in the coming weeks and months a, a, a russian counter offensive the counter counter offensive. let's put it that way. well, you know, i, i have to express my impatience with all of this because there's

a lot of capacity i have, we seen any strategic, big bombing for example. not that i want to see that kind of level of destruction. but this conflict has to come to an end, and russia has the means to do it. what is the west going to do? sanction russia? i mean, it's getting a bit boring. ok. and there's a frustration in the country that i live right now. it's time to wrap this thing up and, and i and now say for the 1st time you're, there needs to be regime change in care. ok, you can't do what these people i and, and, and continue with cancer in this constant. slow walking of the conflict achieves nothing for anyone at the end of the day, and there's an enormous amount of suffering on the ground. go ahead in london. i mean, this is, this is completely understandable or you just said, and i agree. i mean, then there's no point in having any discussions with the current regime. and i think that russia somehow jo bowl in 2014, when the washington installed the ration i and the russian

government, i mean there's no point in discussing anything with that. he's good because he's just a puppet. i mean, he's taking his orders from the washington d. c. and from london. i mean, now in the united kingdom we have a trust would be who? because if prime minister and who during the before being elected explicitly said that, she's willing to use the nuclear weapons. i mean a, i mean, most of the people were clapping. we'll get that in the studio. and this people are not taking into the account, the consequences of this, this country, that language. and indeed russia has to do something before. it's too late because you're asking us, i mean, what, what can be done? i mean, i'm not sure when the washington will accept the defeat of the ukrainian government . i mean,

we know from the day one we're familiar with both of it's the explicit, the describe, the u. s. a. germany, and we know that the u. s. military industrial complex needs to have russia as the enemy, number one. so what else do you to, to be discussed? i mean, what is the washer and president, what we're putting wanted to be a respectable partner within the work order. but discuss phil. i mean, this has felt it, russia will never be accepted as an equal within the current order, which is, you know, crumbling before our eyes, as we, you know, experiencing the rise of breaks and shanghai corporation organization meeting that the stating that will take place later this week, but i think that this illusions in, in, in, in russia has to be dropped. you know, that russia will be accepted in europe or in the broad to west, you know, not in k,

scott, scott, you know, in afghanistan, that was, it was always said that, you know, you have the clocks, but we have the time. how would you use that phrase in this current situation? who's got the clock? who's got the time? scott? russia's got both. i. i think it's time. we got to take a step back for a 2nd and understand that this is, this is a war. i'm in wars, an extension of politics by other means, which means that by sincerely focusing on the battlefield, we're missing the bigger picture. so i'm going to point out to 2 allies are going to come and get that that are coming to russia site 1st one is general mud. the mud season is coming as a is my colleague mentioned, and with this comes an operational reality. so, so i don't see russia undertaking a significant counter counter offensive. and in the short period of time,

that's too risky of it. the best thing russia can do right now is to retake that on bass and they're going to do that. and i think that's what we're going to see for the rest of this military camp. any season income's general winner. and this is where it gets interest, because in a winter isn't about freezing the ground tanks moving in a winter is about russia breaking the will of the west. we support ukraine. this is where the, where all of its chips into crushed the russian economy through sanctions. through denying russia axis, international markets with energy and the west has failed. we never forget that russia is winning on the international energy market, rushes, winning economically internationally. and the victory is going to be a sealed this winter when all of the politicians in europe, who had been clamoring to provide ukraine was support, are going to be swept out of power by red ocean airy movements of angry constituents who are freezing to death. who are hungry or seeing their economies

collapse. and this is the greatest ally. russia has because i'm spring when russia is ready to carry out. after they've secured the don bass rush is ready to move on with regime change. whatever you want to call demilitarization dina vacation. the geo political pitcher will have changed. i don't think you're going to be seen ukraine with so many allies. i think you're going to see europe and native divided, fractured. i think you're going to see the united states with a new political reality after november. and now russia will be better position to act on all the lessons that they've learned, and i agree, they're learning a lot of lessons. they will, they will, they will take the wintertime to reorganize, re equip, reassess m spring. and i know you want this over quick. this isn't about the battlefield. this is about geo politics, is about russia. reposition itself in the world with dinah with india, with other nations, just about the destruction of american gemini, of a weakening of the u. s. dollar. a dominance that's a bigger picture,

the rush is playing into. if you don't want to sacrifice that by carrying out a precipitous military action in ukraine, at a, a per se. well, you can't win without increasing the number of troops. you have a choice of either slow and build up of forces through increase contracting, et cetera, or general mobilization. it'll mobilization is suicide. if russia generally mobilizes their economy will not be as strong as it is right now, and they're going to lose all the advantages they have. so i just say, look, you train want to battle. yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, we're losing the war there. losing the war, michael, that basically the same question because i mean, it gets out to a point of exhaustion. and given how, you know, europeans are unfortunate for the europeans have just forgotten what war is like, you know, the, they've got become very, very soft here. i mean they, they like their prosperity and they had prosperity because they had cheap russian

energy. that's no longer the case and they're going to pay dearly for ending that relationship with russia. because rash has no reason to go back to it. plenty happy . you know, the west doesn't want fossil fuels fine, don't sell it to them. ok. the rest of the world wants to continue building their societies at a sovereign way. they'll take the energy. i think to date of year on year rush has made a gas problems made 38 percent more profit a year on year and that's with all of the sanctions here. so i again, you know, i guess it's a war of attrition, but i think scott is right it we have to think in a much broader scale. what that attrition is. go ahead, michael. yeah, i would agree with scott's assessment that probably geo political aspects and it time is on the brush aside. and i think that the they're used to use a combination of the elements. they're also going to use the fracturing within the

nato countries because of the harsh realities that they're going to have to be facing this winter. and they're already beginning to squirm and, and scream about it. and the u. s. is not going to be able to fulfill them and back fill them. and then at the same time, continue on with a, a robust production of any kind to, to resupply last arms, half of which probably aren't going to the ukrainian forces. anyway, another portion is probably being blown up. so it's a question of attrition. and i think if the, with a combination of using a long winter that's expected in the region combined with altering tactics, the rush russians can sit back and just bleed them. but hey, michael, let me get that. it's going to give you the last 30 seconds. go ahead and london

low, you know, here in the west, the state of rush, i love the euro, but i would say that instead of in the last euro, but it's one of the world that's i think i'm going to write that on a posted and put it on my refrigerator and my wallet, it's going to be a good line i'll use in the future. gentleman, that's all the time we have a think, my guess in washington, delmore and in london. and thanks to our viewers for watching us here at our dc you next time, remember across the ah. oh, a move like a ship after get what is the best time you want? a little bit of

a lady with what i to school, my car wouldn't report backwards but some same here. nothing. the medicaid report card, a national crime, skipper pick data, which is said to jeff. so, i mean, i mean, you can even go, can be coma, loosened up, and become lost. somebody empty a community that they've got. don't be laughing, you know, it was all like it's supposed to start up the keys affected door only out of them. julia needed. one with us, that's a disclaimer, but then was the routing just leaving it right. nobody with looking at them during the summer because i've met with cornell. that correctly was, it was the case. those are the only big as to where we will go,

that they should receive a hiccup and i wish to have a wonderful, beloved and i think it's an open oh . 2 2 2 a. 6 it's matthew needed to look for new. come with the nice couple with the team a nation lou.