ah ah ah hello and welcome to cross stock where all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle . western audiences have been flooded with one wave after another of propaganda, when it comes to ukraine. but what matters most is the generation of political and strategic facts. for example, the induction of 4 ukrainian regions into russia and the sabotage of the north stream pipelines. these realities will determine the outcome of this conflict with

cross stocking. the moment of truth, i'm joined by my guest latimer, goldstein and providence. he is the chair of the department of slavic studies at brown university in washington. we have michael maloof. he is a former pentagon senior security policy analyst and intends virginia. we have had see he is a conflict consultant in a retired u. s. foreign service officer or a gentleman, cross stock rules and the fact that means you can jump in any time you want. and i always appreciate michael, let me go to you 1st. here. political facts are, what matter? most armed, joseph morale said this conflict in ukraine will be one on the battlefield. the only thing he's ever said that i agree with. so if we, we have the induction of these 4 regions of ukraine into russia after referenda. and then we have this very strange, but basically very expected as sabotage of the north stream. both are turning points and in for me, because once these provinces regions are part of russia, they will never be negotiated way. there's no negotiation that russia will be involved in and with the sabotage of these pipelines will probably never be billed

. i wouldn't do it, it bill this be blown up again. i'm the quote unquote leverage moscow had with europe is gone. so oh, we're in a different very different trajectory now and i'm very emphatic when everything is said and done, one side wins and one side loses. there's no win, win here, michael in washington. no, not at this point. it appears that all options have been broken now to try to reach a, a settlement on this thing that, that the hawk was that there would be some form of settlement. but the, this, the sub blowing up of the pipeline seems to have been the proverbial straw. and i think of moscow has basically decided just to look eastward and, and, and go as your agent past. and that it's going to be very, very difficult for a europeans and it, it really is a reflection on a wind for the us ultimately and,

and it's oil companies. it basically now has made europe a slave to us energy once again, because they're going to be needing that very, very shortly. and already the u. s. is at capacity and delivery. and the europeans are gonna be having a very, very difficult time trying to find any substitutes in the near term. i understand that a chancellor's sholtes of germany was just in saudi arabia. didn't get what he wanted . he got ones out one shipment a one ship of oh, okay. okay. okay. but the ultimate but i also, we have to point out you that the energy that europe will be importing from the u. s. will be very, very expensive. ok. you that is the game changer. vladimir, let me go to you because this has been just as much a war on germany as it has been on russia. it's really quite amazing the parallels here because it, germany's economy is going to have

a very difficult time recovering. remarkably, who would have thought some german companies want to move to america because they have cheaper prices. okay. this is all part of the plan here. but let's stay with ukraine here. if there is going to be any kind of negotiated and then the conflicts do have negotiated n, i have to wonder if camp is even going to be at the table. vladimir your thoughts? yeah, i think 1st thing you have to remember that not nato a stake story, it's kind of old slogan, is to keep russia out in germany down in the americans in and is blowing up their pipe is just precisely like one master stroke. i would say, which accomplishes these goals. what it, what it also it's accomplish, just a sense of very, very kind of powerful and strong message all over the world, russia and china, in particular. i imagine the chinese a, what you did with tremendous attention. now it is so some, a tweets from chinese officials, they don't buy, of course this narrative, the garage is involved,

they know who would need it and they know that they can be next because this is, i think, you know, they're watching a role people. they're watching what you know, united states can do what the needs are, can do with great attention. so in the long run, it might be sort of a good move, again, say in germany and russia, but, you know, chinese, i'll definitely will consider as taking a consideration in there for the policies. and the last point is, of course, as russia, you know, i, i, you know, i know in the russian culture and history is probably be the degree that i sent all the stake a with seriously tried to be partners. i tried to learn you them was all the brothers use them as teachers. but them always that's, you know, sounds like that. the more i joined the e e. r eastwood or inward. and i think it's finally with either each this to this point that i was just as you know, who cares what you guys do. you know, we can't rely on you, you can that you just anything except propaganda, except sort of, you know, the conductance of fake shim at if random selections vision changes all over the

world. we can do that too. so i think i'm not sure that the west basically, you know, and they are sending the right message all over the world, the, the teaching people in cynicism which in out rather than kind of cut grading. and this is very disturbing. so they might have succeeded in the short term of keeping germany down and benefit in oil companies. but in the long term, it looks very well. he said let's, it's a pipeline story is very interesting. first of all, we'll probably never know why how it happened, because no one is particularly interested other than the russians in trying to find out what happened. but i do, i'd like to point out washington, and the last new cycle has been very quiet about whose fault it is that it's really unusual considering everything is rushes fault these a. but ted, then, people, there are those in europe like the polls like the baltics there. they don't want to have any relationship with russia. well, that's basically coming true, right now. there won't be one, but there's a coffee up to that. then what if,

if russia is not going to have a relationship with the west, then russia is going to set its own security terms. hence, the induction of these provinces of ukraine into russia, further, others could join it. odessa comes to mind here. so they don't really have to care what the west care, what they think about it. they do have to worry about how they react militarily. but i mean, russia is, can do it. what would needs to do unilaterally based on its own needs. care is not a reliable interlocutor, and obviously, nato is, is hostile. go ahead, ted. either this is all the inevitable consequence of not dissolving nato back in 1990 after it's reason for existence like mashed. and we've seen over the years of there been a chance to negotiate on a better balance between europe and it's american sort of big brother and, and weapons provider on the one hand in russia on the other. and that's definitely

gone downhill since at least a time than glad every improvement took over is as president the 1st time around. and what we've seen recently is just an astonishing series of actions. and i wouldn't mind taking a 2nd to detail them. you've got the provision of advanced ship missiles and guidance they are from and training, therefore, from nato to the ukrainians to use against you. radio metals that haven't been shared outside of nato. as far as i can tell you got a hearing of intelligence for the use in the assassination in the field of russian general officers. you've got to use a very high guided missile which is accurate. and supposedly you within one meter after flying for 300 kilometers to assassinate ukrainian politician hotel. and there happened by the way to be an rti crew right next door to survive check. but only just and finally got the sabotage of the north screen pipelines.

let's turn this around and imagine that any one of these things happened to be us. do you think there be hesitating in declaring war yet? well, you bring up the most important point. let me go to michael to kind of flesh this out here because i think, you know, we all know that on friday, vladimir poaching will make a public address. it's highly anticipated considering the events that have been happening. i tend to think my crystal ball reading my tea leaves here. he's going to, he may decide to declare that the us and nato were belligerents in the conflict and ukraine. and that has huge, huge call implications. michael. no, i to, i absolutely agree. we gotta, we're an uncharted waters right now. this is this, this is a and an event that we're seeing a series of events that we're seeing, that there are almost out of control. there's no, there's nobody, there is no leadership. everyone is reacting at this point. and it's going to

create havoc and it's going to get worse, and i think, and i it see the russians intensifying. i would not doubt that mr. brewton will not only declare nato and us as belligerence, but also try to maybe even consider sc severin. diplomatic relations because the blowing up of their pipeline in effect was an act of war. so i think the and i and michael and michael, they can add to that. it is a declaration of war the way i look at it. but michael, importantly also civilian infrastructure is no longer, you know, it's not no longer for bowden. they've sent that message. ok, glad. i mean, you're nodding your head an agreement. go ahead. yeah, i think it's a, it's opens up on the front door a box. if you wish, and i think i went to return to the airport, we're to said that it wasn't. and as a fan of a registered about, you know, blame in russia, but also simultaneously with

a here that right away in the region. companies in the region government norwegian represent there say we are watching for our pipeline again. we are preparing all the forces of nature to defend it. so why, why are they saying that the united means like they, they, they afraid, like the answer back that they did something, and now there's a watch out. we're gonna defend our pipeline. so this is, this is a very uncharted territories and i think it's a short termism. ultimately, i have a feeling that, you know, this is for endo, and in our join, you know, this guy's company was, it was like really a decisive chest move. so i think the, the decided to have them move, but i think how it's going to play out eventually between the us in a debate with germany, the in, oh, got it. it's a known and i think, i'm not sure from what we've seen so far from western leadership that they actually, you know, consider all the options, all the variance in i don't think that even on the, in the they have stupid people,

but they might have people like shorter people who are sometimes base their decisions on their other kind of false information, which they get from room keep government, which allows it to rates. so they might base it on, on the, on the fold your premise. what vladimir of a faulty narratives create faulty policy outcomes. we're seeing this right in real time here. gentlemen, i'm going to jump in here. we're going to go to a short break. and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on the events in ukraine st with with oh, need to come to the russian state. little, never, i've side as i'm turning the no santini definition,

american house lamps and up with 55 when. okay, so 9 is 2000 speedy, one else with will ban in the european union. the kremlin. yup, machine estate on russia for date and c, r t spoke neck, given our video agency, roughly all band on youtube and pinterest and with this will never be a victory for russia. wait solutions, you will, you're still waiting to a new modem, but you look at a me crane. war is

a proxy war. this is a war between russia and the united states. mezzo mom on made. it comes to not should get done in carbon dioxide. america forces are and you're not in your gage, in conflict with russian forces. the american forces are here to defend nato allies . what happens that nato escalates even more than the special military operation become a war when you but does have. so that was the show and that'll the notion is my store. i see it that i see you at the us. thank you. costliest. go to me live, so i use 3. you should unique and you stop to with almost them. let's see when you read only the still foolish or in your sewage, nero's huger, the girl, ah, with

just look up. sure. mm hm. um, normally a muscle is ringing unit. judy does being an exemption on a nurse to me is chrissy. mama, coquettish, sick creature sandwich. im catherine is ashley of dc. one adversity biggest pieces . gross down to companies, proposals. wonder thesis, medical physician to pick booted you. but how can i put the key for the ching of science, can that work for phones or something like that? and then we got that with great news. i have that ah, welcome back to cross sac where all things are considered on peter labelle. to remind you we're discussing events in ukraine. ah.

okay, let's go back to ted and tens mania. i wanna, i wanna flush out something you said earlier about them, the intelligence assistance ukraine by nato countries. i think that you know, with the pipeline incident that the sabotaged there in your mind as a former form of foreign service officer. would you be surprised, for example, that suddenly non nato satellite started dropping out of the sky. mama, this is, this is very, very, an important element of ukraine. some defense posture right now, offensive posture, considering most analysts, military people have told me that the ukranian army was destroyed during the summer . so in every single way russia is fighting nato. so why should those satellites stay in the sky? ted? well, my only answer would be sort of the prayerful hope that we prevent world war 3 here

. but unfortunately, kids are, cad, is an entirely legitimate tactic in a situation like this, you know, with sibling and infrastructure as you say, destroyed. for that matter, the hotel that was targeted by, you know, a guided missile, forgot to say, for an assassination of one person, talking about overkill. someone's got to be rational here. someone's going to be reasonable, but we can't keep expecting russia to be that someone all the time without some kind of reciprocation. and as you noted earlier, it's, it's as though there's been a deliberate bernie of the bridges. so there's no going back. and no one wants in washington, it seems in nato capitals. no one wants the possibility, a real negotiations for some kind of least bad alternative lasting piece. yeah, well that's because they've created this rhetorical environment where you can't

take a word back. you can't, because if you're reasonable, that's appeasement. that's munich. ok. they're in a trap. there are no linguistic mind trap. they can't get out of michael. we have to talk about these republics joining russia because they will become russian soil sovereign. and the russians have made it very clear. this isn't a bluff. now this is the next stage, and we're in the most dangerous stage of all, because russia will defend these, these new russian republics. go ahead, michael. no, absolutely i. i fully anticipate that happening and that's, that's one of the reasons why there was an effort to bring them immediately into the rush russian federation and to, and it's basically a red line for a ukraine you, if you start showing them again, we're gonna attack and i and i anticipate that russian attacks will occur more, more, a, in

a much more definite way and particularly as wonder reproaches. and i also see greater cyber attacks to get at the point that you were talking about earlier, not only against the, the, the ukrainians and their ability to communicate, but also against the west. generally, i think there may be actually a severance, a sub in, of communications in some respects between russia and let's say washington itself, breaking up a potential diplomatic relations. this thing could escalate very, very rapidly and it will easily get out of control. but the, the, the whole, the whole notion of, of, of ukraine attacking the provinces now are going to be very, very dire. if, if they go ahead and do something like that. and, and i then see attacks on the leadership positions and the command control areas. unlike what we've seen before, that is exactly a vladimir, you know, in, i mean,

from where i am here in moscow. in there i have to admit a level of frustration. it looks like the russian military's fighting with one arm tied behind its back. i mean, a care of is in one piece. they are command and control is in one piece. they have a hotel men trail in poland. i mean, you know, i, at what point does it say enough is enough. we know we're all the entry points are we know we can see everything going on. and hey, look, we'll give you 30 minutes to clear your guys because the missiles are coming in and they're going to destroy everything coming across the border because they can see it. go ahead vladimir. yeah, i think this is veronda and it's joining of this for, for d. 6 are very, very important. and they important primarily, you know, for domestic russian audience. because, you know, let's not forget russians unbelievably priority in the what went all this, you know, you know, particular the wars against a point on,

and he to learn this and that. so now you know, it's not like, you know, we have to fight in an age somewhere in the ukraine and then those arguments. nathan defense, a defense helpless grade. now what the russian, bob will see is this nader and the ukraine, and others i actually taken in invading and warming, and destroying russian debt is good. so that will definitely a big impact, beth. and i think we were talking about, you know, waking up a bear and i think rushes for the country for their, for defense of the land. they do anything, you know, and they do much more than the western us or americans or anyone because americans are not rated americans are coming to russia during the week and i will fight back with all the have. so i think it's a very minute danger game and i think probably again, when there is like, you know, something happening, it would be on the gradient that is already maybe a rational public would a lot less than sending bomb bomb us to, you know, to v o,

key of or something, but if you know russian is attacked again and again again, then they'll be giant outright. let's keep them back and then i don't know, you know, who will benefit from it? you know, 10, are they, the memory of the 2nd world war in the west is dimmed. there's a lot of revisionism going on. but what happened in june 1941 is, is seared into the memory, the consciousness of every russian. and they have vowed never to let that happen again. that's why i'm agreeing with what. but vladimir had to say, this is visceral for them. victory day is the most sacred day in the calendar. the west doesn't seem to get that 10. we don't study history anymore. there we give it up for watching the car dash, and it's quite frankly, there is no communal memory because that generation passed away. we think we understand what happened because we're seeing documentaries on p b. s, or c, b s,

or whatever entertainment channel happens to be pretending to be a history channel. but it's not the same thing, not the blood and soil mixed together the way there was in different soviet territory, certainly in russia. so you're absolutely right. there's a huge balance of memory here in a grievance having to do with in day and, and i don't see a way forward militarily for the west other than continuing to, to seemly expensive materials into ukrainian hands and they're going faster than the west can provide them as far as i, so at some point there's going to be a crisis supply charity if you will. i think the persons are going to start being closed, especially as you mentioned before when the cold winter. and so i don't see a good way forward here is in terms of continuing on but,

but now the bridges have been burned, nor do i see a way back towards diplomacy. i actually have to completely agree with you michael . i've over the last couple of weeks i had this habit of asking those questions because i like it because it brings out different responses. so it's your turn to answer this one who's got the clocks and who's got the time in this conflict. go ahead at this point, i think rush at those again, which ways both, both are what one of the other the clock in. what was the other one, like clock in time. i got the clock who's got the time. i think he, i think russia has both, it can, it can, it can hold out for as long as it can, the united states is up against a very serious selection coming up. the people don't like this, you this war and, and they have other things on their mind. and the, and the europeans are getting fed up. and, and they're, and they're, they're seeing that this is getting them know where you got protests going on in

germany now. and all that russia has to do is wait it out and, and it's going to be, it will, i think the europeans are gonna ultimately recoil from all of this and, and finally say enough it in spite of the fact that that victoria newland and company are back they're pushing, pushing, pushing, but at some point they're going to see that this is not benefiting them. they're going to have are very harsh winner. and, and the russians have been through it all before they can do it again. i think that hardship that you talk about is probably genetic and in the rush in the rush and yeah, i mean, they, it's one of the things you learned that living among russians, that there is a high level of stoicism. they're very stoic when it gets there. when you're up against the wall, they're very stoic and they, they work in unison. other than that, they never do. but when, when they, when they're threatened, they come together and, and something. is it something to watch? well, vladimir a, the, well, the, the idea of that, the brush,

the idea of having regime change in russia, which is, it is ridiculous here. but i, i do foresee a regime change in berlin. i think sergeant schultz will be sent packing. and his coalition very soon. yeah, i did say that sergeant schultz. go ahead. vladimir. that's absolutely the case. i think he interactions under pressure a get together. so even if there will be like a, you know, the people voted by the gym change, or you'll be like, absolutely topher guy if there is some changes. russia, which will, it would be, i the number of notes as guy vod in our, in jumps over germany in england. you know, they, they don't have time. she brought this already up to like our one month in the office already in our lease to ross is doing the kind of a bundle economy. germany is not gonna do well. well, you know what i, what i want to stress is that, yes, those 2 no history, those been horizons know that they can persevere. but i think western calculations

are, it was based on some, it was at fault, georgia. they get some strange that g 6 which tells them that rather than economies week prices don't have this wasn't on the they are that you grands ascend this information again to washington. say yes, yes, yes, we are winning lessons are collapsing, they are running out of ammunition there. i'm out of this equipment. so this idea that i saw the running out, it says ready? very naive, very faulty, but i think you know, so in other words, rasa does have diamond logan a hand. but the west actually thinks that we do. and that's when endangered a. but it is, if you ever come to the fight with a gun, unload it and think it's loaded as opposed to your one and what will happen, but i think, well, you know, die will tell. of course, you know, well, time one how, but i'm, i'm, i'm, i'm, i'm protecting that lives trust will be looking for political asylum in care of before the end of the winter. that's my prediction. it's all the time we have gentlemen many thanks. so my get some province washington and intense mania. and

thanks to our viewers for watching us here at our dc and next time remember ah ah. ah lu one? no, no, no. hon was joking, luna. little more shilton with the ship o unit 73. 1 was a unique organization in the history of the world. what they were trying to do was to simply do nothing short and build the most powerful and most deadly biological weapons program that the world had every now and little, not to production it. it gives you or shoot good. did enough

it killed when you suddenly a you know, my general manager thought this is meant new against the wall. one of our new and i got the much sale. i got ya. i got on monday. i wish to know about jewelry home. he didn't go on more or less than a jr. let's i had to put a couch. nice. oh boy, that's good to go. that is what on this for sure. my a new on the on site is and more a month and we'll put them out that they give us

a with $23.00 people are killed and dozens more wounded as a column of civilian vehicles moving towards russian control territory. and there's up at rosier region comes under fire. local officials say, be attack was carried out by ukraine's armed forces. from a deadly incident, kansas vladimir putin is said to incorporate this upper o g, and her some regent sound to don boss, republics into the russian federation. later today, following the referendums, hell they're also ahead. moscow has evidence that reveals western footprints in organizing and carrying night mondays. attacks on both north stream pipeline nowadays, according to the head of russia's foreign intelligence served.