by done congress that she didn't do anything wrong, i legally or in terms of the constitution. so, but actually that it both european union and united state, they supported the quote. so i don't think they are really worried about or concerned. i don't think they are really concerned about democracy in brazil. our that's the problem for this. how hey, lot from moscow, an auto international. a great pleasure. have me with us. thank you so much for joining us and sharing a time with us here most or it's for you, you can catch up on an awful lot to do. so if you like at your own ledger, have a look at odyssey. ah ah, ah

. oh, when i was shown seemed wrong when old rules just don't hold any new world yet to see how it is being becomes the advocate and engagement equals the trail went so many find themselves worlds apart. we choose to look so common ground. ah ah hello and welcome to cross stock where all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle

. western audiences have been flooded with one wave after another of propaganda when it comes to ukraine. but what matters most is the generation of political and strategic facts. for example, the induction of 4 ukranian regions into russia and the sabotage of the north stream pipelines. these realities will determine the outcome of this conflict with cross stocking. the moment of truth, i'm joined by my guest latimer, goldstein and providence. he is the chair of the department of slavic studies at brown university in washington. we at michael maloof. he is a former pentagon senior security policy analyst and intends virginia. we have had see he is a conflict consultant and a retired u. s. foreign service officer or a gentleman, cross stock rules and a fact that means you can jump in any time you want. and i always appreciate michael, let me go to you 1st. here. political facts are what matter most armed,

joseph browl said this conflict in ukraine will be one on the battlefield. the only thing he's ever said that i agree with. so if we, we have the induction of these 4 regions of ukraine into russia after referenda. and then we have this very strange, but basically very expected as sabotage of the north stream. both are turning points and in for me, because once these provinces regions are part of russia, they will never be negotiated way. there's no negotiation that russia will be involved in and with the sabotage of these pipelines will probably never be built. i wouldn't do it, it will this be blown up again? i'm the quote unquote leverage moscow had with europe is gone. no, we're in a different very different trajectory now, and i'm very emphatic when everything is said and done, one side wins and one side loses. there's no win, win here, michael, in watching him. no, not at this point. it appears that all options have been broken. now to try to reach a, a settlement on this thing that,

that the hawk was that there would be some form of settlement. but this, the sub blowing up of the pipeline seems to have been the proverbial straw. and i think of moscow has basically decided just to look eastward and, and, and go as your agent past. and that it's going to be very, very difficult for a europeans and it, it really is a reflection on a wind for the us ultimately. and, and it's oil companies, it basically now has made europe a slave to us energy once again, because they're going to be needing that very, very shortly. and already the u. s. is at capacity and delivery. and the europeans are gonna be having a very, very difficult time trying to find any substitutes in the near term. i understand that a chances showed, so germany was just in saudi arabia, didn't get what he wanted. he got ones out one shipment, a one ship of oh,

okay. okay. okay. but the ultimate but my, what i also we have to point out here is that the energy that europe will be importing from the u. s. will be very, very expensive. okay? that is the game changer. vladimir, let me go to you because this has been just as much a war on germany as it has been on russia. it's really quite amazing the parallels here because it germany is economy, which is going to have a very difficult time recovering. remarkably, who would have thought some german companies want to move to america because they have cheaper prices. okay. this is all part of the plan here, but let's stay with ukraine here. if there is going to be any kind of negotiated and then the conflicts do have negotiated n, i have to wonder if camp is even going to be at the table. vladimir your thoughts? yeah, i think 1st thing you have to remember that nato, a stake story, it's kind of old slogan, is to keep russia out in germany down,

and americans in and is blown up their pipe is just precisely like one master stroke. i would say, which accomplishes these goals, what it, what it also accomplishes. it sends a very, very kind of powerful and strong message all over the world, russia and china, in particular. i imagine the chinese a, which of these are with tremendous attention ality. so some, a tweets from chinese officials, they don't buy, of course this narrative that garage is involved. they know cool. good. did they know that they can be next? because this is, i, you know, they're watching a role people there which and i, what, you know, united states can do what the neither can do with great attention. so in the long run, it might be sort of a good move, again, say in our germany and russia, but do not j nice, i'll definitely will, will, will consider as taking a consideration in there for the policies. and the last point is, of course, as russia, you know, i, you know, i know in the russian culture and history is firmly be the great license all the

stake, a west seriously try to be partners tried to learn you. them was all the brothers you them as teachers, but them always that's, you know, sounds like that. the more us during that you, they even are eastwood or inward. and i think it's finally with these of each, this point that roger says, you know, who cares what you guys do, you know, we can of july and you, you cannot teach us anything except propaganda accepts of, you know, the conductor of fake shem at if random selections, vision changes all over the world. we can do that too. so i think i am not sure that the were as basically, you know, and they to send in the right message all over the world, the, the teaching people and cynicism watching out rather than go cut grading. and this is very disturbing. so that might have succeeded in the short term of keeping germany down and benefit in the oil companies. but in the long term, it looks very well. ted, what's the pipeline story is very interesting. first of all, we'll probably never know why how it happened because no one is particularly

interested other than the russians and trying to find out what happened. but i do, i'd like to point out, washington over the last new cycle has been very quiet about whose fault it is. that's really unusual, considering everything is rushes fault these a. but ted then people, there are those in europe like the polls like the baltics. they don't want to have any relationship with russia. well, that's basically coming true right now. there won't be one, but there is a copy to that. then what if russia is not going to have a relationship with the west then russia is going to set its own security terms. hence, the induction of these provinces of ukraine into russia. further, others could join it. odessa comes to mind here. so they don't really have to care what the west care, what they think about it. they do have to worry about how that react militarily. but i mean, russia is, can do what it needs to do, unilaterally based on its own needs. kev is not a reliable interlocutor, and obviously, nato is hostile. go ahead,

ted. this is all the inevitable consequence of not dissolving nato back in 1990 after it's reason for existence, right, nation. and we've seen over the years that there been a chance to negotiate a better balance between europe and it's american sort of big brother and, and weapons provider on the one hand in russia on the other. and that's definitely gone downhill since at least a time than glad, i mean, took over is as president the 1st time around. and what we've seen recently is just an astonishing series of actions. and i wouldn't mind taking a 2nd to detail them. you've got the provision of advanced ship missiles and guidance there from and you know, training there for from dado to the ukrainians to use against rushing into radiation. metals that haven't been shared outside of nato. as far as i can tell

you got sharing intelligence for the use in the assassination in the field of rush general officers, you've got to use a very high tech guided missile which is accurate, supposedly you within one meter after flying for 300 kilometers to assassinate the ukrainian politician hotel and there happened by the way to be in our teeth. don't crew right next door to survive, jack, but only just and finally, got the sabotage of the screen pipelines. let's turn this around and imagine that any one of these things happened to be us. do you think there be hesitation in declaring war yet? well, you bring up the most important point. let me go to michael to kind of flesh this out here because i think we all know that on friday, vladimir poaching will make a public address. it's highly anticipated considering the events that have been happening. i tend to think my crystal ball reading my tea leaves here. he's going

to, he may decide to declare that the us and nato were belligerents in the conflict and ukraine. and that has huge, he would call implications. michael though i to, i absolutely agree. we gotta, we're an uncharted waters right now. this is this, this is a and an event that we're seeing a series of events that we're seeing, that there are almost out of control. there's no, there's nobody, there is no leadership. everyone is reacting at this point. and it's going to korea havoc and it's going to get worse, and i think, and i it see the russians intensifying. i would not doubt that mr. brewton will not only declare nato and us as belligerence, but also try to maybe even consider sc severin. diplomatic relations because the blowing up of their pipeline in effect was an act of war. so i think the and i and michael and michael, they can add to that. it is

a declaration of war the way i look at it. but michael, importantly also civilian infrastructure is no longer, you know, it's not no longer for bowden. they've sent that message. ok, vladimir, you are not in your head an agreement. go ahead. yeah, i think it's a, it opens up on the under a box if you wish. and i think i went to return to this point. we're to said that it wasn't. and as have been the reticent about, you know, blaming russia, but also simultaneously with a here that right away in the region. companies in the region government norwegian represent there's a, we are watching for our pipeline it, and we have repaying all the forces of nature to defend it. so why, why are they saying that the united means like they, they, they afraid, like the answer back that they did something, and now there's a watch out. we're gonna defend our pipeline. so this is, this is a very uncharted territories and i think it's a short termism. ultimately, i have

a feeling that, you know, this is for endo, and in our joining those guys, companies was it was like ready a decisive chest move. so i think neither decided to have them move, but i think how it's going to play out eventually between the us in a debate with germany, the in o got it, it's unknown and i think i'm not sure from what we've seen so far from western leadership that they actually, you know, consider all the options, all the variance in i don't think that you know that they have stupid people, but they might have people like shorter people hope, sometimes based decisions on their other kind of false information which they get from room. keep government, which, oh okay, excellent. all right, so they might base it on on a, on a false premise. what vladimir of a faulty narratives creed, faulty policy outcomes. we're seeing this right in real time here. gentlemen, i'm going to jump in here. we're going to go to a short break, and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on the events in ukraine, st with our aah.

with a with watching it was a year, a shadow shorter one. and i'm not trying to stay like a national z. m, knowing that she's shiela yours. if you buy,

when you sit down with who is the aggressor today? i'm authorizing the additional strong sanctions today. russia is the country with the most sanctions imposed against it. a number that's constantly growing a list of course. sure. does he speak on the bill in your senior, mostly mine, or wish you were banding all in ports of russian oil and gas? new g i. g with a, with regard to joe by imposing these sanctions on russia has destroyed the american economy. so there's your boomerang. ah,

ah, welcome back to crafts like we're all things are considered. i'm peter level true manager, we're discussing events in ukraine. ah, okay, let's go back to 10 and 10 mania. what i want to flush out something you said earlier about the intelligence assistance, the ukraine by nato countries. i think that, you know, with the pipeline incident, the sabotage there in your mind as a former, for a foreign service officer. would you be surprised, for example, that suddenly nato satellite started dropping out of the sky. this is, this is a very, very important element of ukraine's defense posture right now offensive pastor considering most analysts, military people have told me that the ukrainian army was destroyed during the summer. so in every single way russia is fighting nato. so why should those

satellite stay in the sky, ted? well, my only answer would be sort of a prayerful hope that we prevent world war 3 here. but unfortunately, kids are cat is an entirely legitimate tactic in this situation like this. you know, when civilian infrastructure is you say, destroyer for that matter, the hotel that was targeted by, you know, a guided missile, forgot to say, for an assassination of one person, talking about overkill. someone's got to be rational here. someone's going to be reasonable, but we can't keep expecting russia to be that someone all the time without some kind of reciprocation. and as you noted earlier, it's, it's as though there's been a delivery or any of the bridges. so there's no going back. and no one wants in washington, it seems in nato capitals. no one wants the possibility,

a real negotiations for some kind of least bad alternative lasting piece. yeah, well that's because they've created this rhetorical environment where you can't take a word back. you can't, because if you're reasonable, that's appeasement. that's munich. ok. they're in a trap. there are no linguistic mind trap. they can't get out of michael. we have to talk about these republics joining russia because they will become russian soil sovereign. and the russians have made it very clear that this isn't a bluff. now this is the next stage, and we're in the most dangerous stage of all, because russia will defend these, these new russian republics. go ahead, michael. no, absolutely i. i fully anticipate that happening and that's, that's one of the reasons why there was an effort to bring them immediately into the rush russian federation and to, and it's basically a red line for

a ukraine you, if you start showing them again, we're gonna attack and i and i anticipate that russian attacks will occur more, more, a, in a much more definite way and particularly as wonder reproaches. and i also see greater cyber attacks to get at the point that you were talking about earlier, not only against, ah, the, the, the ukrainians and their ability to communicate, but also against the west. generally, i think there may be actually a severance, a sub in, of communications in some respects between russia and let's say washington itself, breaking up potential diplomatic relations. this thing could escalate very, very rapidly and it will easily get out of control. but the, the, the, the whole, the whole notion of, of, of ukraine attacking the provinces now are going to be very, very dire. if,

if they go ahead and do something like that. and, and i then see attacks on the leadership positions and the command control areas. unlike what we've seen before, that is exactly a vladimir, you know, in, i mean, from where i am here in moscow. it, there is, i have to admit a level of frustration. it looks like the russian military is fighting with one arm tie behind its back. i mean, a care of is in one piece. layer, command and control is in one piece. they have a hotel, men, trail and poland. i mean, you know, i hate, at what point does it say enough is enough. we know we're all the entry points are we know we can see everything going on. and hey, look, we'll give you 30 minutes to clear your guys because the missiles are coming in and they're going to destroy everything coming across the border because they can see it. go ahead vladimir. yeah, i think this is veronda and it's joining of this for, for d. 6 are very, very important. and they important primarily, you know,

for domestic russian audience. because general, let's not forget russians unbelievably priority in the what went all this, you know, you know, part through the wars against a point on, and he to learn this and that. so now you know, it's not like, you know, we have to fight in a name somewhere in the ukraine, and then there is a lose arguments. nathan defense, a defense helpless grade. now what ration bob will see is this nader and the ukraine and others. i actually taking in invading and bombing and destroying ration did is good. so that will definitely a big impact, beth. and i think we were talking about, you know, waking up a bear. and i think the russians for the country, for their, for defense of the land, they do anything, you know, and they do much more than the western us or americans or anyone because americans are not rated americans are coming to russia during the week. and i will fight back with all the have. so i think it's a very, very dangerous game. and i think probably again, when there is like, you know,

something happening, it would be on the gradient that is already maybe a russian public. what it lacked and send in bomb bomb us. do you know to v o key of or something. but if you know russian did it or is attacked again and again, then they'll be a giant outcry. let's keep them back and then i don't know, you know, who will benefit from it? you know, ted in the, the memory of the 2nd world war and the west is dimmed. there's a lot of revisionism going on. um, but what happened in june 1941 is, is seared into the memory, the consciousness of every russian. and they have vowed never to let that happen again. that's why i'm agreeing with what? but vladimir had to say, this is visceral for them. victory day is the most sacred day in the calendar. the west doesn't seem to get that 10. we don't study history anymore. beer. we've given it up for watching the car dash, and it's quite frankly,

there is no communal memory because that generations passed away. we think we understand what happened because we're seeing documentaries on tv or cbs or whatever entertainment channel happens to be pretending to be a history channel. but it's not the same thing, not the blood and soil mixed together the way there was in different soviet territory. certainly in russia, so you're absolutely right. there's a huge balance of memory here in a grievance having to do with in day and, and i just, i don't see a way forward militarily for the west other than continuing to, to, of the seemly expensive materials into ukrainian hands. and they're going through faster than the west can provide them as far as i. so at some point there's going to be a crisis supply charity if you will. i think, you know, persons are going to start being zipped closed,

especially as you mentioned before when the cold winter sets in. so i don't see a good way forward here is in terms of continuing on but, but now the bridges have been burned, nor do i see a way back towards diplomacy. i actually, i have to completely agree with you michael. i've over the last couple of weeks i had this habit of asking those questions because i like it because it brings out different responses. so it's your turn to answer this one who's got the clocks and who's got the time in this conflict. go ahead at this point, i think rush at those again, which ways both, both are what one of the other the clock in. what was the other one, like clock in time. i got the clock who's got the time. i think he, i think russia has both, it can, it can, it can hold out for as long as it can, united states is up against a very serious election coming up. the people don't like this, you this war and,

and they have other things on their mind. and the, and the europeans are getting fed up. and, and they're, and they're, they're seeing that this is getting them know where you got protests going on in germany now. and although russia has to do is wait it out and, and it's going to be, it will, i think the europeans are gonna ultimately recoil from all of this and, and finally say enough it in spite of the fact that that victoria newland and company are back they're pushing, pushing, pushing, but at some point they're going to see that this is not benefiting them. they're going to have are very harsh winner. and, and the russians have been through it all before they can do it again. i think that hardship, the to talk about is probably genetic in the rush in the russians. yeah. they, i mean, they, it's one of the things you learned that living among russians, that there is a high level of stoicism. they're very stoic when he gets that when you're up against the wall, they're very stoic and they work in unison. other than that,

they never do. but when, when they, when they're threatened, they come together and, and something. is it something to watch? well, vladimir a, the, well, the, the idea of that, the brush, the idea of having regime change in russia, which is, is ridiculous here. but i, i do foresee a regime change in berlin. i think sergeant schultz will be sent packing. and his coalition very soon. yeah. i did say that sergeant schultz go ahead. vladimir. that's absolutely the case. i think he interactions under pressure a get together. so even if there be like a, you know, the people talk about the resume change or you'll be like absolutely topher guy. if there is some changes, russia, which will, it would be, i, the number of notes as the guy bought in jones over germany in england. you know, they don't have time. she brought this the radio to like, our one month in the office already. you know, at least ross is doing a bungalow economy. germany is not going to do well. well, you know, what i would,

i want to stress is that yes, those to no history, those been, all russians know that they can persevere. but i think western calculations are always based on some is, were said, falls, georgia, they get some that's strange that g states which tells them that rather than economies week, but i still don't have, this wasn't on the or that you grand ascend this information again to washington say yes, yes, yes, we're winning lessons collapsing lately. i ran out of ammunition there. i'm out of this equipment. so this idea that i saw the running out, it says ready? very naive of a faulty but i think you know, so in other words, what i said does have diamond logan a hand, but there were actually things that we do and that's where the danger a come to the fight with a gun, unload it and think it's loaded as opposed to appointed. what will happen? but i think, well, you know, die will tell, of course, you know, well, time well,

but i'm, i'm, i'm protecting that lives trust will be looking for political asylum in care of before the end of the winter. that's my prediction. it's all the time we have gentlemen many thanks. so my get some province washington and intense mania. and thanks to our viewers for watching us here at our dc and next time, remember, cross stuck with ah, [000:00:00;00] a ah,

a trade will never be a victory for russia. with newton. and unless you look at a meal crane war is a proxy war. this is a war between russia and the united states. netherland are made. it comes to not shooting then carbon dioxide. america forces are and you're not in your gage, in conflict with russian forces. the american forces are here and defend nato allies . what happens if nato escalates even more than the special military operations become a war? when you put they'll have a show and that will, that 1000 is my store. i see it that i see your to us thinking possibly go to really live. so i,

you sleep issue week and you stuff to with most of them. let's see. we live only this foolish or in your sewage. never speak of the girl who's with them. you know, i'm on the key of the authorities and they real masses in the west to hear me so that everyone remembers that the people who live in the next can. and again, it's own and that rogia regions have become us citizens for rent and give the passionate speech during a ceremony. beginning of the accession of a to don about republics on the apology, and how to phone regions into russia. a big event is right now, being planned to be held on red square in central moscow across live soon, wide area and maria financial time. but he, 3 people are killed and dozens of others are wounded as a column of civilian vehicles. moving towards russian control territory in the