stream to pipeline be opened up so that they would increase the debt this widget. and by blowing up the pipeline, united states is taking that possibility. know off the table. so, you know, the united states is not only the likely a candidate, but all of the circumstantial evidence would convict united states virtually any court of law that would hear this case. so this day, friday, september, the 30th 2022 will definitely go down to the books of russian history. what has happened today today was the day the vladimir putin signed the documents, the accession documents for, for former republics in east ukraine, to join dot health. the russian federation here on auto international weeping, showing enormous celebrations across moscow and other major cities in the biggest country and the world. thousands of people celebrating what many a hoping will be a peaceful, prosperous future for those people in the beleaguered eastern parts of ukraine. rachel evans, my colleague, is here in half an hour time to give you all the latest and also don't forget russia's convening now,

an emergency meeting of the un security council in the coming hours are to international will bring you the full coverage. ah ah, ah . western audiences have been flooded with one wave after another or propaganda when it comes to ukraine. but what matters most is the generation of political and strategic facts. for example, the induction of hor, ukrainian regions into russia and the sabotage of the north stream pipelines. these realities will determine the outcome of this

role when i was showing wrong, when i just don't hold any well, yes, to shape out. this thing becomes the advocate an engagement. it was the trail. when so many find themselves worlds apart, we choose to look for common ground. ah, i, i hello and welcome to cross stock where all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle. western audiences have been flooded with one wave after another of propaganda,

when it comes to ukraine. but what matters most is the generation of political and strategic facts. for example, the induction of 4 ukranian regions into russia and the sabotage of the north stream pipelines. these realities will determine the outcome of this conflict with cross stocking. the moment of truth, i'm joined by my guest latimer, goldstein and providence. he is the chair of the department of slavic studies at brown university in washington. we have michael maloof. he is a former pentagon senior security policy analyst and attends mania. we have had see he is a conflict consultant in a retired u. s. foreign service officer or a gentleman, cross stock rules and the fact that means he can jump in any time he want. and i always appreciate michael, let me go to you 1st here. political facts are what matter most armed, joseph burrell said this conflict in ukraine will be one on the battlefield. the only thing he's ever said that i agree with. so if we,

we have the induction of these 4 regions of ukraine into russia after referenda. and then we have this very strange, but basically very expected as sabotage of the north stream. both are turning points and in for me, because once these provinces regions are part of russia, they will never be negotiated way. there's no negotiation that russia will be involved in and with the sabotage of these pipelines will probably never be billed . i wouldn't do it, it bill this be blown up again. i'm the quote unquote leverage moscow had with europe is gone. oh, we're a different very different trajectory now and i'm very emphatic when everything is said and done, one side wins and one side loses. there's no win, win here, michael in washington. no, not at this point. it appears that all options have been broken now to try to reach a settlement on this thing that, that the hope was that there would be some form of settlement. but this,

the sub blowing up of the pipeline seems to have been the proverbial straw. and i think of moscow has basically decided just to look eastward and, and go as your agent asked. and that it's going to be very, very difficult for a europeans and it, it really is a reflection on a wind for the us ultimately and, and it's oil companies. it basically now has made europe a slave to us energy once again, because they're gonna be needing that very, very shortly. and already the u. s. is at capacity and delivery. and the europeans are going to be having a very, very difficult time trying to find any substitutes in the near term. i understand that a chances sholtes of germany was just in saudi arabia didn't get what he wanted. he got ones out one shipment, a one ship of oh,

okay. okay. okay. but the ultimate but my, what i also have to point out here is that the energy that europe will be importing from the u. s. will be very, very expensive. ok. you that is the game changer. vladimir, let me go to you because this has been just as much a war on germany as it has been on russia. it's really quite amazing the parallels here because it germany is economy, which is going to have a very difficult time recovering. remarkably, who would have thought some german companies want to move to america because they have cheaper prices. okay. this is all part of the plan here, but let's stay with ukraine here. if there is going to be any kind of negotiated and then the conflicts do have negotiated n, i have to wonder if camp is even going to be at the table. vladimir your thoughts? yeah, i think 1st thing you have to remember that not nato a stick story, it's kind of old slogan, is to keep russia out in germany down in americans and is blowing up the pipe

is just precisely like one master stroke. i would say, which accomplishes these goals. what it, what it also it's accomplishes. it sends a video of any kind of powerful and strong message all over the world, russia and china, in particular. i imagine the chinese a what you did with tremendous attention. i already saw some, a tweets from chinese officials. they don't buy, of course this narrative, the garage is involved, they know who could needed and they know that they can be next. because this is, i, you know, they're watching a role people there which and i, what, you know, united states can do what the neither can do with great attention. so in the long run, it might be sort of a good movie, again, say in germany and russia, but, you know, j nice, i'll definitely will, will consider as taking a consideration in there for the policies. and the last point is, of course, as russia, you know, i, you know, i know in the russian culture and history is strongly be the great license all the stake, a west seriously try to be partners,

try to learn you them as all the brothers you, them as teachers, but the more west that, you know, sounds like that, the more us doing that you, they even are eastwood or inward. and i think it's finally with these of each this, this boy that roger says, you know, who cares what you guys do, you know, we can of july and you, you can achieve just anything except propaganda. accepts of, you know, the conductor of fake shim at if random selections resume changes all over the world. we can do that too. so i think i'm not sure that the west basically, you know, and they are sending the right message all over the world, the teaching people and cynicism watching out rather than go cut grading. and this is very disturbing. so they might have succeeded in the short term of keeping germany down and benefit in oil companies. but in the long term, it looks very well. you can tell what's the pipeline story is very interesting. first of all, we'll probably never know why how it happened because no and is particularly interested other than the russians and trying to find out what happened. but i do,

i'd like to point out washington, never the last new cycle has been very quiet about whose fault it is. that's really unusual. considering everything is rushes fault these a. but ted then people, there are those in europe like to polls like the baltics. they don't want to have any relationship with russia. well that's basically coming true right now. there won't be one, but there is a copy to that. then what if, if brush is not going to have a relationship with the west, then russia is going to set its own security terms. hence, the induction of these provinces of ukraine into russia further, others could join it. odessa comes to mind here. so they don't really have to care what the west care, what they think about it. they do have to worry about how that react militarily. but i mean, russia is, can do what would needs to do unilaterally based on its own needs. kev is not a reliable interlocutor, and obviously, nato is hostile. go ahead, ted. here,

this is all the inevitable consequence of not dissolving nato back in 1990 after it's reason for existence, right managed. and we've seen over the years that there been attempts to negotiate a better balance between europe and it's american sort of big brother and, and weapons provider on the one hand in russia on the other. and that's totally gone downhill since at least a time than glad, i mean, took over is as president the 1st time around. and what we've seen recently is just an astonishing series of actions. and i wouldn't mind taking a 2nd to detail them. you've got the provision advanced ship missiles and guidance they are from and training, therefore from nato to the ukrainians, to use against rushing into radiation. metals that haven't been shared outside of nato. as far as i can tell,

you got sharing intelligence for the use in the assassination in the field of rush and general officers. you've got to use a very high tech guided missile which is accurate and supposedly do within one meter after flying for 300 kilometers to assassinate the ukrainian politician hotel . and there happened by the way to be in our crew right next door to survive. jack, but only just and finally, got the sabotage of the screen pipelines. let's turn this around and imagine that any one of these things happened to be us. there be hesitating in declaring war yet what you bring up the most important point. let me go to michael that kind of flesh this out here because i think, you know, we all know that on friday vladimir poacher will make a public address. it's highly anticipated considering the events that have been happening. i tend to think my crystal ball reading my tea leaves here. he's going to, he may decide to declare that the us and nato were belligerents in the conflict in

ukraine, and that has huge, huge call implications. michael. no, i to, i absolutely agree. we gotta, we're an uncharted waters right now. this is this, this is a and an event that we're seeing a series of events that we're seeing, that there are almost out of control. there's no, there's nobody, there is no leadership. everyone is reacting at this point. and it's going to korea havoc and it's going to get worse, and i think, and i it see the russians intensifying. i would not doubt that mr. brewton will not only declare nato and us as belligerence, but also try to maybe even consider sc severin. diplomatic relations because the blowing up of their pipeline in effect was an act of war. so i think the and i and michael and michael, they can add to that. it is a declaration of war the way i look at it. but michael,

importantly also civilian infrastructure is no longer, you know, it's not no longer for bowden. they've sent that message. ok, vladimir, you are not in your head an agreement. go ahead. yeah, i think it's a, it's opens up on the under a box if you wish. and as inc, i went to return to the airport. we're to said that it wasn't. and as have been the reticent about, you know, blaming russia, but also simultaneously with a here that right away in the region. companies in the region government norwegian, represent there, say we are watching for our pipeline. and we have repaying all the forces of nature to defend it. so why, why are they saying it that, you know, it means like they, they, they afraid like the answer back that they did something, and now there's a watch out. we're gonna defend our pipeline. so this is, this is a very uncharted territories and i think a, it's a short termism. ultimately i have a feeling that, you know, this is for endo, and in our joining those companies was it was like really

a decisive chest move. so i think the, the decided to have them move, but i think how it's going to play out eventually between the us in a debate with germany, the in, oh, got it. it's a known and i think, i'm not sure from what we've seen so far from western leadership that they actually in a conceited all the options, all the variance. you know, i don't think that you know, in that a half stupid people, but they might have people like shorter people who, but sometimes based their decisions on their other kind of false information which they get from room keep government, which allows it to rates. so they might base it on on a false premise, what vladimir of a faulty narratives grade faulty policy outcomes. we're seeing this right in real time here. gentlemen, i'm going to jump in here. we're going to go to a short break. and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on the events in ukraine st with parking ah

ah oh, well, never be a victory for russia. wait, we shall see what you're still waiting. much really need not unless you look at a meal. crane war is a proxy war. this is a war between russia and the united states. milan are made, it comes to last. you get done in carbon dioxide. america forces are, and you're not in your gauging conflict, aggression forces. the american forces are here and defend nato allies. that happens that nato escalates even more indiscretion. military operations become a war when you put them up so that we will send them a show and that'll that doesn't, is my dog. i see it. i see your to us. thank you plus list of with so i used to

issue a unique and you stuff with them. let's see. we live at home. we just don't foolish them in your sewage. never speak of the girl who's l. look forward to talking to you all. that technology should work for people. a robot must obey the orders given by human beings except where such short or is it conflict with the 1st law? show your identification. we should be very careful about artificial intelligence and the point obviously is to great truck rather than a very job with artificial intelligence, real summoning with a robot must protect its own existence with

a welcome back across sack where all things are considered. i'm peter of else remind you we're discussing events and ukraine. the okay, let's go back to, to and tens mania when i want to flush out something you said earlier about the intelligence assistance, the ukraine by nato countries. i think that, you know, with the pipeline incident, the sabotage there in your mind as a former, for a foreign service officer. would you be surprised, for example, that suddenly nato satellite started dropping out of the sky. this is, this is a very, very important element of ukraine's defense posture right now, often said,

pastor, considering most analysts, military people have told me that the ukrainian army was destroyed during the summer. so in every single way russia is fighting nato. so why should those satellites stay in the sky, ted? well, my only answer would be sort of a prayerful hope that we prevent world war 3 here. but unfortunately, kids are chad as an entirely legitimate tactic. in a situation like this with civilian infrastructure, as you say, destroyer for that matter. the 2000000000 hotel that was targeted by, you know, a guided missile, forgot to say, for an assassination of one person. talking about overkill. someone's got to be rational here. someone's going to be reasonable, but we can't keep expecting russia to be that someone all the time without some kind of reciprocation. and as you noted earlier, it's, it's as though there's been

a deliberate, bernie, or the bridges. so there's no going back. and no one wants in washington, it seems in nato capitals. no one wants the possibility, a real negotiations for some kind of least bad alternative lasting piece. yeah, well that's because they've created this rhetorical environment where you can't take a word back. you can't, because if you're reasonable, that's appeasement. that's munich. ok. they're in a trap. there are no linguistic mind trap. they can't get out of michael. we have to talk about these a republics joining russia because they will become russian soil sovereign. and the russians have made it very clear. this isn't a bluff. now this is the next stage, and we're in the most dangerous stage of all, because russia will defend these were these new russian republics? go ahead, michael. no, absolutely i. i fully anticipate that happening and that's, that's one of the reasons why there was an effort to bring them immediately into

the rush russian federation and to, and it's basically a red line for a ukraine you, if you start showing them again, we're gonna attack and i and i anticipate that russian attacks will occur more, more or in a much more definite way. and particularly as winter approaches. and i also see greater cyber attacks to get at the point that you were talking about earlier, not only against the, the, the ukrainians and their ability to communicate, but also against the west. generally, i think there may be actually a severance, a sub in, of communications in some respects between russia and let's say washington itself, breaking of potential diplomatic relations. now this thing could escalate very, very rapidly and it will easily get out of control. but the, the, the, the whole,

the whole notion of, of, of ukraine attacking the provinces now are going to be very, very dire. if, if they go ahead and do something like that. and i then see attacks on the leadership positions and the command control areas. unlike what we've seen before, that is exactly a vladimir, you know, he's in, i mean, from where i am here in moscow. in there i have to admit a level of frustration. it looks like the russian military is fighting with one arm tied behind its back. i mean, a care of is in one piece layer command and control is in one piece of the have a hotel, men trail and poland. i mean, you know, i, at what point does it say enough is enough. we know we're all the entry points are we know we can see everything going on. and hey, look, we'll give you 30 minutes to clear your guys because the missiles are coming in and they're going to destroy everything coming across the border because they can see

it. go ahead vladimir. yeah, i think this is veronda and it's joining of this for, for d. 6 are very, very important. and they important primarily, you know, for domestic russian audience because, you know, let's not forget russians, unbelievable to participate in the what went all this, you know, you know, particular did was against and i'm calling on and he to learn this and that. so now you know, it's not like, you know, we have to fight in a need somewhere in the ukraine, and then there is a lose arguments. nathan defense, a defense helpless grade. now what ration bob will see is this in a dog and the ukraine, and others i actually taken in invading and warming, and destroying russian debt is good. so that will definitely a big impact, beth. and i think we were talking about, you know, waking up a beer and i think rushes for the country for their, for defense of the land. they do anything, you know, and they do much more than the western us or americans or anyone because americans

are not rated americans are coming to russia during the week and i will fight back with all the have. so i think it's a very minute danger game and i think probably again, when there is like, you know, something happening, it would be on the gradient. that is already maybe a rational public what it lacked on sending bomb bomb us to you know, to v o key of or something. but if you know, ration did it or is it that again and again again, then they'll be giant outright. let's keep them back and then i don't know, you know, who will benefit from it? you know, ted, in the, the memory of the 2nd world war in the west is dimmed. there's a lot of revisionism going on. but what happened in june, 1941 is, is seared into the memory, the consciousness of every russian. and they have vowed never to let that happen again. that's why i'm agreeing with what. but vladimir had to say, this is visceral for them. victory day is the most sacred day in the calendar. the

west doesn't seem to get that 10. we don't study history anymore. there. we give it up for watching the car dash, and it's quite frankly, there is no communal memory because that generations passed away. we think we understand what happened because we're seeing documentaries on tv or cbs or whatever entertainment channel happens to be pretending to be a history channel. but it's not the same thing, not the blood and soil mixed together the way there was in different soviet territory. certainly in russia, so you're absolutely right. there's a huge balance of memory here in a grievance having to do with in day and, and i don't see a way forward militarily for the west other than continuing to 2 of the seemly expensive materials into ukrainian hands. and they're going faster than the west can provide them as far as i felt. so at some point there's going to be

a crisis supply of charity, if you will. i think, you know, persons are going to start being lived close, especially as you mentioned before when the cold winter sets in. so i don't see a good way forward here is in terms of continuing on but, but now the bridges have been burned, nor do i see a way back towards diplomacy. i do actually, i have to completely agree with you. you know, michael, i've over the last couple of weeks i had this habit of asking a question because i like it because it brings out different responses. so it's your turn to answer this one, who's got the clocks and who's got the time in this conflict. go ahead. at this point, i think russia does, i said which ways both, both are what one of the other the clock in. what was the other 1 o'clock in time? i got the clock who's got the time. i think he, i think russia has both. it can,

it can, it can hold out for as long as it can, the united states is up against a very serious selection coming up. the people don't like this, you, this war. and, and they have other things on their mind. and the, and the europeans are getting fed up and, and they're, and they're, they're seeing that this is getting them know where you got protests going on in germany now. and all that russia has to do is wait it out. and, and it's going to be, it will, i think the europeans are gonna ultimately recoil from all of this and, and finally say enough it in spite of the fact that that victoria newland and company are back there, pushing, pushing, pushing. but at some point, they're going to see that this is not benefiting them. they're going to have are very harsh winner. and, and the russians have been through it all before they can do it again. i think that hardship that you talk about is probably genetic. and in the rush in the rush and yeah, i mean they, it's one of the things you learned that living among russians,

that there is a high level of stoicism. they're very stoic when it gets there. when you're up against the wall, they're very stoic and they, they work in unison. other than that, they never do. but when, when they, when they're threatened they, they come together and, and something, something to watch. well vladimir a, the, well, the, the idea of that, the brush, the idea of having regime change in russia, which is ridiculous here. but i, i do foresee a regime change in berlin. i think sergeant schultz will be sent packing. and his coalition very soon. yeah, i did say that sergeant schultz. go ahead. vladimir. that's absolutely the case. i think interactions on the pressure i get together. so even if there will be like a yearly people thought of others, jim change, or you'll be like absolutely topher guy. if there is some changes, russia, which will, it would be, i, the number of notes as the guy bought in jones over germany in england. you know,

they don't have time. she brought this the radio to like our one month in the office, or the least ross is doing a bundle economy. germany is not going to do well. well, you know what, i, what i want to stress is that, yes, those who no history, those been, all russians know that they can persevere. but i think western calculations are, it was based on some is, were said, falls logic. they get some strange that g 6 which tells them that rational economies week, but i still don't have. this wasn't on the earlier that you graham's a send this information again to washington. say yes, yes, yes, we are winning lessons are collapsing lately. i ran out of ammunition there, i'm out of this equipment. so this idea that i saw the running out, it says ready? very naive, very faulty. but i think you know, so in other words, it also does have diamond logan a hand. but the west actually thinks that we do, and that's where the danger a come to the fight with a gun,

unload it and think it's loaded as opposed to a one and what will happen. but i think, well, you know, time will tell, of course, you know, well, time well, but i'm, i'm, i'm, i'm, i'm protecting that live trust will be looking for political asylum in canada before the end of the winter. that's my prediction. it's all the time we have gentlemen many, thanks some i get some providence, washington an intense mania. and thanks to our viewers for watching us here at our dc and next time, remember how stuck with ah, [000:00:00;00] a

yes to see how it comes, the adjective and engagement equals the trail. when so many find themselves will the parts we choose to look for common ground with the key of authorities and their real masses in the west to him so that everyone remembers that the people who live in the domestic and again his own. and so that rogia region have become all citizens for lot america gift an emotional speech during a ceremony, beginning the accession of the 2 don baths, republics, and the zap arossi and 1st on regions into russia. a big event is being held on red square and central moscow to mark the occasion. also ahead ukraine