tv Worlds Apart RT October 4, 2022 2:30pm-3:01pm EDT
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thank you for the invitation, miss michael. i'm looking forward to the conversation to now that you wrote not so long ago. that's why the man who attend line joseph stalin back in the late 19 forties, miscalculated in applying, quote, unquote brute force to its neighbors. and i'm sure it's a tantalizing and very gratifying comparison to force some of your readers. but what makes you believe that the russia as a stay in its current form, is left by the same expansionist, self aggrandizing ideological aspirations as the soviet union was after the 2nd world war? absolutely, frank, it absolutely is not. russia is a defensive country and a defensive force and is just looking to secure its voters. it is absolutely not the country that the soviet union was. and the analogy which i brought in on there in the report that i was written is about how that can be miscalculations in
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terms of responses from the from the other side. even at that point of time. ok, joseph stalin did not wish to bring upon the sort of school war containment that the americans brought on. and to be very frank, the americans over played the hand at that point of time in the late 1940 s. but america was so powerful at that point of time that it couldn't get away with that and it could create the institutions that it did, you know, the marshall plan and the nato, etc, etc. that was successful. the americans mistakenly believe that they can do that today. they are not in that position and power to do that today. but that having being said, the analogy that i wanted to bring out here was that mister pollutants actions have provoked the response that most unexpected at most schools and,
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and to which to some extent have under cut to it's broader geopolitical positioning in the i think it's pretty clear that any incursion into another country is bound to have pretty serious ramifications. and i think the problem was fully aware of that from the get go. there is also a lot of discussion here in russia about how the ukranian operation and the very likely admission of the former ukrainian regions into russia proper will divert resources from russia own domestic. these, for example, the drive to develop the forest. but there is also recognition that these moves serve. he, security and national identity goals repelling nader as well as shielding the people of eastern your brain from ethnically and motivated prosecution
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differently dismissed those motives. no, i don't. i don't believe those. i think motives, what i would have actually suggested if was to put in have this plan, the special military operation. as we've seen, the initial operation went all the way to here. now let's step back a moment o 2. we had the mental cause means 2 in particular. and the irony is that the west was reading off the russia off the russian hill sheet. and telling you credit that you must do what is written in men's, which is the special status, et cetera, et cetera in trying that in the constitution. and i would have suggested that mister putin hammer on those points that the means accord over and over and over with the normandy format. when it's the clusters proposal was being violated by mens. and that's the reason foreign operation, which would be limited to the non best area. i think the best response for the
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whole the to, to be different in that regard to the western sanctions response. it would not have been a happy response, but it would not have been also as far reaching. and this is the modus operandi of what the west has done in iraq and cetera, et cetera. it has for soften the ground for its own military operation. and then going forward, and so that would be my suggestion in this regard that you also wrote that the, one of the most important for size of the western architecture after the 2nd world war was their decision to an international system. and then a cholesterol economic system that was based on openness and universal isn't a global economy that could belong to essentially every member of the global community. and i wonder if one of the main underlying factors not only in the ukraine and coughing, but in this broader confrontation dive in russia in the west and to some extent the
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west and the rest isn't back. some presumption, an inexplicable presumption on the part of the was that the global economy belongs to the west only, and that it's up to the west to decide who has access to it. yeah, absolutely correct. and i stand by what i, what i mean, the west design, the plumbing out there. and it terms of the economic infrastructure planning is designed by the west. and it's one by the west. and it can shut it off when it wants to. and that's completely wrong. because the u. s. doesn't have that are and capability anymore, and i would add one more, one more feature. oh till this was just the same, you know, in the 1940. so, you know, i talked about the comparison, started, the west was confident when it was confident, it did not have to take this sort of radical action. the fact that it is taking radical action now is itself, its lack of confidence that back in germany that it enjoyed can be perpetuated. and
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so it is now trying to realize all the gains from underwriting that system on a short term basis, regardless of whether that system will then can be maintained. the u. s. without extracting as much out of that system when it 1st used a poor underwrite that system, and that itself is a reflection of how the best itself feels like it's in the international system is coming to an end thinking about extraction. mr. got that until recently the west was indeed capable of extracting whatever it wants from the rest of the world and being and keith by. but with this late, the confrontation and the policies of sanctioned against russia, it seems that it can no longer shield itself, its own societies from the consequences of its own action. have we come to a point perhaps even a turning point when the chickens have come home to ruth?
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but your current on that front, i think there, on both sides. i mean there's, there's mutual damage, especially in europe. i think particularly when i look at germany, i just don't understand the country. 50 years of diplomacy has literally gone been flushed down the toilet in a half a year and they're going to have a very difficult winter. and yes, those go back all around. but i would also submit that this has heard rush, you're standing and rushes capabilities going forward for some period of time. and so this has not been, it's been lose lose for both parties, frankly. and it's time to tell who has lost more in this context. well, i know that you have dedicated a lot of years of your career to political risk analysis. so it's not just about wishful thinking, or, you know, best hope it's about calculating no means versus goals and
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help us understand that this is one thing that many in russia i'm not able to understand what we hear a lot of politicians and the west say that ukraine needs to be supported until it defeats russia. what exactly these people mean predict, defeating russia and what kind of risks it involves. so great question as to be very honest, i have no understanding on the west, just thinking in terms of defeating russia. i what i would submit o kill is. well, ukraine feels that has been a violation of its territory. it deserves a chance to fight back and recoup as much of its territory as it can. this is an inherent right to self defense. it is an enhanced so it is doing that it should be given an opportunity, but we'll see how far as it goes in capturing to defending territory is a lot easier than capturing territory. ukrainians need to capture recapture
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territory. and i mean, there's been a lot of glee and jumping around that. they've got little bit of care, some problems and a little bit here in a little bit. but my argument would be like, let them have like one chance and after it still made it, those 2 areas where the stalemate becomes should become more permanent lines across which if peace settlement and then be you can then be in force. not mr. go to your role so long ago that russia, quote, unquote invasion of ukraine is as naked violation of international law as it can be . and i personally agree video, although vladimir putin being illegal is provided or sought to provide some legal justification. you know, people of them by officially appealing to russia for support and protection, but regardless of how weak or how strong that legal justification is. i would argue that international law can only be international and law when it's universally
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applied systematically and universally applied when it's applied selectively. it undermines it's very purpose and it becomes a weapon of injustice rather than a means to justice. i simply don't understand why would people still make these arguments about international law? does international law even matter anymore? i understand your point. i am what i would submit would be that yes, international law has been violated. really let me, let me be very frank about this thing. this was yes, the most make it indicated by the shop international lawson. saddam hussein, moving to quit. but there been many violations of international law by the west. and in the intervening time and the amount of people who have died as a result of that violations of international law, wallet in magnitudes higher than what's, how really isn't millions of people across the states across africa. and frankly, even across europe, precisely now, as you no doubt, no question about that,
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but i would, i would still submitted at this point of time. is it going to be something as international or an international on or not the liberals rule based on a, which is which is and i for which is which is not, not a very honest characterization, but if that is going to be international owner, then international relations it should not, must not be, not just be about power and interest, but it should also be about certain lucy norms, which can be respected by all parties. i think most of the, most of the decision makers in most of us would agree with you. i know that you often you, you often point out that balance is one of the key values in foreign affairs. and i think that the russians ultimately are very byzantine in their approach. they're all about balancing and even the soviet union, as communism as it was in the are the balancing. but the question is whether the
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west is opening is open to balancing in any shape or form because at least from mostly it seems that washington, once everything for itself, it's not interested in any power sharing. am i wrong that you're not wrong that you're correct on that? i think george canon point of the song, 1996. that if you are going take needle right to russia's models, you are going to the possible possible european settlement is going to fail. you know, when president couldn't put out those very reasonable demands to the american side in december to president biden, it was about let's on, on men's men stu, let's ensure that we have legal guarantees. let's ensure that the nato doesn't get on to until brushing borders. let's not have offensive every systems in adjacent states. i think those were all reasonable on a basis for a conversation and left to me, i would have said at the end of the 2nd, then of the cold war. yes,
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the visa grand country should have been allowed into nato, but natal should have been stopped. nato expansion should have been stopped that moment, not the more dex, not even in romania and bulgaria. and from that point on, the west sea should have been made as the primary framework within which european security was regulated for the, for the west, essentially the cold war didn't. and it was, they told russia, the cold war ended for you. and, you know, need to do all these things, but for us we will continue with awkward woman county. and that's, and we've come to the logic logical situation today in seeing what's happening in ukraine unfortunately. and the germans could have done better in europe. it's like, or we cannot talk loudly because of ice. she softly, softly. they were the ones against giving nato a membership action plan ukraine on in the image of actually, but they did nothing about it and the ukrainian kept on asking for more from near to. well, mr. good, let's discuss the issue of german, our product,
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speaking with will van in the european union? the kremlin media machine, the state on russia today, and c, r t spoke neck, given our video agency, roughly all band on youtube and with others who welcome back to was a partner with a senior fellow at the washington base institute for china, america studies. it's
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a good thing before the break re touched upon the issue of german rationality and it's true that the russian, germany cannot make a relationship based primarily on gas, but not only so has managed to ensure that the cold war state cold and it's not cold anymore. and we have a major kinetic conflict in the middle of europe. and just now the dancer you heard the news about the explosions up in nor stream one gas pipeline, which for sure will leave germany in a number of other countries in a very hard situation. energy wise, these, this winter now, as a russian, i don't care about how germans warm up their homes. but what i'm really concerned about is the state warfare, turning to industrial turn tactics. when do you think about it? how worrying is that? i think it is maureen and i would say what's more worrying is the fact that the
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german russian relations have splintered and spent so badly of their perhaps when, for quite some time it'll take a lot of effort to repair that relationship. and it's in some ways to the us china relationship on the us pushing for deep coupling and the damage that that can do with not just the bilateral relationship, but to the broader global economy. i taught russia, russia, german relations was the ballast for economic security in europe, and that ballast has gone. and it's now uncertain as to what sort of profile, what sort of a country germany itself will be. this under the singer joe, knew it wants to speak up, talk out and do things. and of course it's going to be heard economically. but i think it has really hurt it's long term foreign policy by seeking it policy of bad relations with russia. i think it could have done
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a lot more to preserve that relationship. but to preserve that relationship, we're not required to be aggressive much earlier and say this is utter nonsense to have folks like the ukrainians internet or we just don't oppose their membership action plan. we of course, lower the even the request for them to join me too, because this is nothing but a provocation, but the germans didn't do that. and now they themselves are going, as i said, going to see the ramifications of 50 years of wise diplomacy. just go down with you . now, i think there is a feeling here in russia that germans and to a larger extend the west has taken both rushing china for granted as a sort of the underpinning the base for that industrial might. it's very easy to ignore the, the basement of a house when you only look at the roof where there was, but many would argue that access to relatively affordable the russian energy sources. somebody was a cheap energy sources,
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was the very basis for german economy. do you think, in terms of economic analysis, do you think the europeans understand how much they actually depended, how much they are? well being dependent on russia? to a point, i'm assuming that they didn't know about how much they depended mother called that there are certain values and rules or norms that needed to be defended regardless. and so they chose to do that. and unfortunately, everybody's going to live out the consequences of that. and so i would say that it's not a knee jerk reaction from the europeans, but i would have hope that they might have been much more wiser in which live, in which they are laid their counter sanctions. because these are effectively, i mean, the equivalent of nuclear sanctions on russia and they cannot expect then that normal business going to cost at least and in the, in terms of energy supply would, would operate. with that, i would understand that some of the rushes actions may seem extremely distasteful
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to the europeans or somebody else, but they are beans also have to do with the americans. and some of the american policies that we, europe are hard to describe as friendly and even if we look at this latest attack on the north stream pipeline, which has not been attributed to fernley to anyone yet. but we've seen a former polish minister of foreign minister, right x, of course you thinking america going up the russian bible and bringing gas to, to germany. i mean, i understand that they would be extremely angry with russia and they would feel the need to stand up for, you know, for certain values. but what about the american? don't they need to stand up for the same values with that closest ally? yes, they do what i mean america has america. alliances are alliances of convenience when it wants it to be in the lines and it can americans operate like that?
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and yes, i mean the defense guarantees will stay the defense. part of it is unshakable. but on all of those trunks, i mean, the americans are competing as much with the europeans as competing with other people. and you see that, you know, if we have in america 1st president in 2024 in 2028. i mean, policy might change and point to is pretty radically in this regard. and the r p and then will be on their own trying to figure out their own destiny. and i know them running down their own rituals at this point of time. so and why they had their warning, donald trump, which gave him a, a very comfortable time to acquire a certain degree of autonomy. if not, sovereignty, both economic and political. and they attempted to do it to do that. there was some lip service from president cron, from the leadership of germany, but it all seem to evaporate very quickly when joe biden came back to office. now let me ask you about the american thinking because you are in washington after all,
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and you're more exposed to that mentality. i think many people here in russia believe that american decision makers have lost any existential fear. that the reason why they behave at this extremely, provoke active manner, not only russia, but also with regards to their own population, is simply because they have absolutely no accountability. do you agree with that? and does russia have any option of bringing that message home to the decision makers in washington without threatening the entire world? that is without using a nuclear auction? no, i think it's gonna be difficult and it gets dangerous to go down the tall often nuclear option. because the way it is received though, is that this is irresponsible talk. and the responsible action, of course, is a responsible but, you know, sending weapons that kill our service. men is also responsible, blowing up a major gas pipeline is not an example of the best behavior. so, i mean, the,
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you have to respond to other acts of irresponsibility. provided that you do that in the, in the, in the moral way that respects the, the rest of the world. what i would say is, you know, what the americans are trying to do is move needle as far up right to rushes motor . what right. and then what, what that is, and then just and, and just create insecurity in russia. and perhaps you hope for, if you change in russia and hope that are a super liberal administration then follows in its way. and i would submit that russia as a great fall must be able to hold the lines that it has new lines, and it has drawn in ukraine and create a steel made out there. because once we have a stalemate and winter comes out, that the kong i think that will be a crescendo sooner or later. and after winter with all the hardships that are going to happen, that we need to have some form of the settlement. there's one very well respected political analyst here and asked me to retrain. we used to be very well received in
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washington, and he said the other day that even though i didn't put in is pretty straightforward in communicating russian red lines. and he said there is simply no space in washington playbook for russian or in fact, any other nations read lines. in fact, one most good tries to draw any limits. people in washington believe that their obligation is to show very publicly, to demonstrate it to moscow, to the point of humiliation that it sensibilities simply don't count. am i right on that, laura? unless you are correct on that, but i would say, i mean the husky, some limits of what the u. s. has gone up to and stop the u. s. has not been us as a de facto participant in the war. and i think to the student provides a lot of very significant intelligence support, which has not been reported much, but the u. s. has not itself got engaged physically in terms of, in connecticut,
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in terms of the war. so it does understand where those limits are. and also, as we saw earlier, you to ensure that there would be no actually from in, it'll stated, the arguments will be sending to you print and then you can, can do stuff and, but it should not target russian country even though it has to do some on the boundaries, so there are limits and that's with a mr. group here. say that there are limits and yet quite clearly they are not really being observed. i wonder if those limb as i am post for the sake of the united states itself, so that the president biden can tell the american people that okay, we're not participating. participating, even though everybody knows that the americans are in key, that they're advising the ukrainian military leadership that they're providing all the satellite data that they're providing weapons. is it, is it really authentic to argue that they're no longer part of the direct part?
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it is conflict. you can make a bona lancaster. yes, they are a part of those conflict in awful treasury, but they're also, they also are because they themselves are not directly in works. and as i said, their goal is to take it all up to no need to, to russia's border. i'm and create insecurity in russia, and a cold war never ended for the us on the call. and then, so just thought of the prosecution off that cornwall, which they don't want to get locked from their perspective. but as you said, they were willing to fight with last your grievances. well, if they're willing to take nato all the way up to your rushes bought, or do you think it would be a wise strategy on the part of russia to take that for closer to the american homeland? i'm thinking about the industrial infrastructure. i'm thinking about all kinds of special forces operations. i'm thinking about even targeting american forces in 3rd countries and perhaps a credible threat of
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a new class right on the american homeland. do you think something like that could bring those people in check with reality? yeah, but i think we would cross an important line if there's a direct exchange between the russians and the americans. are russians and a neutral states. i think back line needs to be preserved because of that line as violated. i think we could be in for a conflagration. and so i think those some element of even self restraint from the russian and which needs to happen. and that's why i said, i mean the real concentration should have some de one should have been about don bass. and even today it should be about preserving frontlines in don bass and let them leave matters as well. mister group, i hope your advice is heated for the time being. we have to leave it there, but i'm very, very grateful for your participation. thank you very much for that. you're most welcome. thank you. now, it's a pleasure speaking to you and thank you for watching hope to hear again. and it was a part i with
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i see the see bus is the little gear medation says a help ah, with our top headlines right now and our t international as artie ultimately wins of battle with google. as a russian court rules in favor of a lawsuit filed by the china against the u. s. a tech giant to restore access to its lobby youtube champs with it doesn't matter for russia whether western countries, except are decisions or not. it would be right for every country around the world to accept the new reality. russia top different about says western nations. we'll have to accept the new reality if the countries senate agrees to include full regions into that of the russian federation.
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