ah, with me one control the part when looking at the war in your brain and its worldwide implications, it's hard to tell when it all began. did it start in february of 2022 when russia launched its military operation, 7 years prior, when it failed to put an end to bloodshed interest in ukraine can be traced to the collapse of the soviet union, or perhaps the beginning of the 16th century assertive rise of western power, and perhaps even more importantly than the question of the origin is peaceful and fair co existence even possible between the west and the rest. well, to discuss it,

i'm now joined by a gun of academic supervisor at the school for world the canal mix and international relations at the higher school of economics in moscow. mr. keller, gun, if it's always a pleasure talking to you, thank you very much for your time. i'm happy to be with you. now, you've been wanting about the danger and the likelihood of, of a war between russia and the west over ukraine for many, many years. when do you think the structural foundations for this conflict? for late 25 years ago, i thought of expansion of nato, a, florida, ukraine, and russia. the claim was weak. and the trusting. and so, you know, way we acquiesced and the people like myself and i didn't many times that already a written form, but cetera, said that sooner or later there will be war and it will be about you free. of

course, there are many other cultural historic elements, but their main reason was so pushed the security of the station or has been become becoming intolerable for us. now can i ask you specifically about the language? because in just the other day, we had a few cranes at security council, alexi denila for percent with russia sounding family suggested getting rid of their russian language completely. and while he did that in a very derogatory term, as compared to russian speakers to frogs, what i want to ask is not the moral assessment, but rather than the sort of analytical assessment of what sort of consequences this math, psychological experiment of trying to raise the mother tongue from a substantial part of the population could produce well most, most probably, there will be no you crate in the end or very few ukraine in then you to the

pulses of the present quine of government id. as 2 attempts to raise russia from russia or puts which is a oh, it was very clear from the beginning that the korean kiva lee elite was afraid of russian lady as a more competitive. and this was the were and heard from english as a more competitive. and so they were making their policies are building their feet on the anti russian platform. there was only one of the reasons of this conflict and the weakness of, of that elite. but it was a reason, but focusing on the language as this certified battle ground for it even back in 2014, i think many of the van and it was

a capital is this language bill was one of the capitalist for rushes, actions, and i'm a big fan of ludovic business, dine, it says famous selling mystic scholar. and there are many, many, many studies that confirmed his famous statement that the limits of my language are the limits of my world. that language indeed defines how you see the world in this sense, doesn't it make an a military and strategic meaning to try to erase somebody else's language law in a, in a way that is happening at the local elite school. some of the leads a change of the course of the countries are also so using of the language question, the same as a push to the left rear estonia, and that has been a bit oh, the 20 that had been her happening. go throw the history. math for sir language is

one of their defining features of the nation. if mother finding her. so when you will want to build in your nation, you have to build that around. learn language is the language belongs to maturity. i always share my lives elsewhere. it becomes a problem. i wonder if you see any and linkages between this efforts to suppress the russian culture and the fear of the russian influence. if, if you take that one can influence other nations through their language through their culture, then indeed the russian culture becomes a very potent our weapon were. of course, i mean a strong culture is a potent to happen, but i would blow up a nice culture for it is a one of the strongest of instruments of influence for there is no question about that. so the, so i fully understand,

i mean those people though i do not share the policies who want to get rid of richard culture. now, in one of your articles, he suggested that due to the composition at camellia ethnic composition of ukraine's population, it state what can only be shaped and midwife through a very deliberate ante, russian stance. now i understand how it could be one of the political technologies, but why do you think it's the only way available for your claim for? because not only because of the language, because you create has a very weak historic nation. so they don't want to denigrate the crater. there hasn't been great for her 9th century, so age and they have their, their, it has been a land which has been run over by different tribes countries. so the roots of ukrainian feet are 2 weeks. and so the have to, to,

they have to dig these rules out to be ship, but any our choice app has its costs and consequences. people who try to think about the ukranian political future. surely they could have understood that there in our. 3 country like russia would not be able to take that indefinitely, or they think they didn't do that. he was in that, in think a, in that way and that away, at the beginning, russia was to week russia was trying to integrate into the west. so it was not a problem for much political consciences, of people like myself and very, very few outside of my and our country even very to my country weren't understood that, but we were ministry. i remember that in their ninety's,

and i was heading, organizing them all russian, ukrainian meetings and commissions. and because nobody was interested was it because the russians too, were taking a crane for granted that it was, they were taking a credit for granted. and also at one or show company at no cost more than g, d, p. o v. great, they were, we were who may down mistakes. we often accused her. and you are yourself often accused the west of an arrogance and ignorance. do you think russia is se guiltier of the same thing? absolutely. no, we were ignorant with it, wanting her to know what was happening, area where we didn't care and oh, we pay, we paid the price. it does not nourish analyzer ukrainian,

the behavior of ukrainian rates which are ost ships implant a nation and natural from my point of view. there they are a 1st, they were building white a territory and now they, they planned to pledge that into woochie is absolutely the oldest, inevitable now, but we will, we're also deal with snap sinner, later this military operation in the ukraine will. and, and i don't think at this point at least there is any intention in the colon to integrate western ukraine into russia's proper. and will that territory have any other options for sort of sustaining itself politically other than extreme was the phobia. and if not, how do you think this? the ably, i did, degeneracy to heard, say a, it looks at the juncture i'm in the options are open, and i think that there could be several, the crates. what do you mean by several ukraine's with the city?

this is a widely debate debated the puts of, of ukraine belonged to hungary, austria hungary, boss, to poland, romanian want the apiece to. but again, the question is, what, what will come out of this state as it is because it further the state collapses, which as opposed to the possibility, then i mean the tertiary will be totally taken by a smart do i understand you correctly than in strategic terms? russia would be more or less ok with parts of your brain going, let's say you are full and which is just as it was the phobic as some of the ukrainian leads. but the thing like that kind of a point to view the father of the border with, from the heart of russia,

the better if i may press that for 11 more question. do you think, what do you think is the best case scenario for ukraine at this point of time? because, you know, we all have relatives there and we all have emotional connections to that country. if you could have your wish, what do you think is the best case scenario at this point of time? could be too late and sign it with the teacher friendship or with russia, open borders, etc. so, but that's a bus and nothing short of that will preserve the ukrainian sovereignty in the us, the if i were god. okay, what the realistic scenario there is, the scenario several, several territories and a very long war, which is probably the ok. and then you have dangers and of escalating horizontal and vertical layer of the more that although we're talking hey,

craig mostly and now, oh yeah. we are like the proverbial a drunkard who is looking for keys under the lamps. not where he could have lost. a crane is a plot creek, warren traded a part of a huge, massive, or distribution of world power off of multi layered traces everywhere. i mean, we have as a simone fantasy for crisis with crisis energy crisis, crisis middle class ways of migration. i mean, i could go on a different and it is clear that we are living through a period of desperate, desperate, deep change. what will come out in 20 or 30 years? i don't know, but we should think in these terms, of course,

hopefully that that will be something after 220 or 30 years. and that is they, we avoid a catastrophic them when you, when you don't have such a long horizon in certain ways. you're an optimist before and you get what happens . let's take a very short break, but we will come to this fascinating discussion in a short while. thank you. ah, a lawyer. he is the aggressor today. i'm authorizing the additional strong thanks. today russia is the country with the most sanctions imposed against it. a number that's constantly growing. a believe senior mostly mind the banning all imports of russian oil and gas news.

i know they plenty of law with regard to by imposing the sanctions on russia has destroyed the american economy. so there's you boomerang ah, ah, a demick supervisor at the school or for the canal mix and international relations at the higher school of economics in moscow. music are gonna, before they break, you are suggested that the contract is much further than russia, ukraine. it's a full blown confrontation given russian the west, and i've seen you right before that because it's such a global conflict. russia's actions should also be targeted at the west so that it

loses the appetite for picking on russia further. what exactly do you have in mind? what actions could moscow take tier a limit, they appetites. fortunately, the 1st i re emphasize it's not between weighted and brushed on the west. another leave the west and the rest and everything is changing. the west is shrinking. i mean, the rest, which i would prefer to go to cold, not a bow west, but global majority of movies are growing in its power. but we have everything is changing. and one of the elements of this picture is that they're desperate. the attack of the west or counter attack to stop the to ration of the, of their positions. they decided to concentrate on russia

in their real aim is of course saving their 500 years of their domination. and a mid intermediate aim is it on to maintain that they're about to have de, my cheney, they have to 1st to take out russia. it's impossible. most probably so that aim would not be reached. but that is at global. oh, but not a global war in terms of military what a global war in terms of political, economic, psychological, moral values, everything. but he also said that despite its global implications, this war could be thought of as russia's 4th great war. starting with the war against napoleon, the civil war of the beginning of the 20th century, the 2nd world war and this crime crisis. if we look at the death to law of the, of this previous conflicts they, it could be counted in tens of thousands enough. and millions do thing in this

particular case, we can do it. i hope that, oh, would not reach her. the levels of push of their great patriotic war or of their 2nd. but you have to quote choice by the way, wrongly, a cold here, russian, german or even him through his to war. but her for all i been, or we had the war against napoleon, which was the 1st for to article. so i will, it, a lot of people died, but the country to the parish. i'm for interview at one on one of the valve guests and we are recording this interview at their sidelines have devolved that form. and she said, an interesting thing. she said, like the world is used to russia, paying a disproportionate prize for global peace. and there is a recognition among many of my eastern guests that russia is doing something for itself. but it's also providing common benefit. but i, not,

many of those countries are ready to stand out for those benefits directly. do you think russia is getting enough support from the, from the countries that are benefiting on taishan? well, we're no, we're not getting enough support. sure. but we're, and we're not counting on that support except of course and support of china and 2 or 3 other nations and also on support of the world community. now, it is much freer because of her shirt. so huge 1st. and then after a short period of soviet union collapse, or russia undermined the foundation of there were some hagaman which was military superiority, which it to accomplish somewhere 500 years ago. and which was, which was the foundation of the western power. so i, you know, we were freed the will already, and we are free in the world,

but now people either do not understand that or in the understand the it's a public good for them. why should they pay for, but there is a paradox there because on the one hand i you know, marsha is there at e said that russia fried the one from the western military had any but on the other hands. on the other hand, a, some of the western leads there. i mean, they lost the, the remnants of fear. because even though russia has a lot of might. and there's very a lot of difficulties in just putting in and to this constant part applauding from the, from the west. how do you think fear or the effectiveness of the nuclear deter and could be brought back in till world politics? her that her one of the hottest question i wanted us to

himself, what of herself? and we actually know, but people like myself counted that a foot war of such proportions would start somewhere. our some counterpart shoot in stop or because we are far beyond their career, caribbean cra, crisis. i mean, there are what is happening has been a thinkable in the nuclear age or later is directly supporting arming the country, which is fighting on the borders of their 1st or 2nd. nuclear should propose that that isn't thinkable. the people last, ah, how safe here you're right away, i called and so my colleagues called the strategic perez's ah, how to do with it. i don't look at that phrase strategic paris. it is an air by

that i assume you mean dad and the west and the world, perhaps a more generally have come to take peace for granted. and i think some of that, that relates to russia's own population because in order to, in a be successful in this partition, you not only need successful military strategies, strategic thinking in modern weapons. but you need to see war as perhaps the worse, but legitimate means of defending your country's national interest. looking at how many people have left russia since the beginning of this operation. and how many ms ended on moral grounds. do you think the kremlin has enough support domestically to withstand it? no. as far as i know, the support is overwhelming and that but the vast majority of the ocean population full of the work. but the probably so is there a way to answer your question in a bit different way?

i would say that this particular period, new to reparation, had several and aims. the one is clear defendant and a bus. the 2nd is clear stopped maita expansion. the 3rd is her dad dentist, and that is if i, he crane, which is vague, but then there of it the but one of the themes of the war was, of course, to mobilize russians and to clean russian society from protestant element our mind from preston or elements and pro, as to a culture and also competitor thinking. and when that is happening, whether it is a good or bad, we know it will come out of this process. but are we really

all for one period in our lives, very strange period in allegedly vital demand. thought that piece is a ton of pieces normally is a very rare specimen or friends earth. oh, really? so is a nuclear winter, italy who avoid that, but the waters of the wars will come back and that is unfortunately very ugly in her mouth if human culture for one and for of geo politics generally from all mix whatever for one short period we because of a this holy fear of nuclear weapons. we did not fight b. gore's little. i mean, of course we but millions of yet members were killed. mcmillan, iraqis was killed, we killed several 100000 people,

but when invaded afghanistan, so the wars button, but now we return in this kind of international media we are entering. now we have to be ready. every country will have to be ready to defend itself, much more than in the previous. so, golden several decays. we talked about fear of being brought back into politics and to some extent, the koreans are also trying to weaponized here as a, as a means to assimilate their western partners, to a more active support of that cause. i'm sure you've heard russia's that defense ministry are raising concerns about the ukrainians, the potentially developing an ad dirty nuclear bomb. if that indeed happens, how do you think it will change the dynamics of this conflict? this metal deprecation, nuclear dotted bond, but it's not a very lethal weapon that it is more of

a psychological terrace swiftly. it will not change the dynamics of the water, but it could provide russia with an instrument to be even more decisive. to think it will change da, thinking among the western leads because as a, as you said, there's still a separate stigma associated with the problem with the western deletes. is that strategically? i see none of the but there are some people of my generation i'm old and there are, of course, are brilliant people in the west. but as in terms of strategic thinking, i don't see any in europe, which are better way of thinking about what's in a lease. i have heard you say that for us, it's like the central issue, initial survival of the state. while for many in the west, for the western decision makers, it's a, it's a matter of their own political survival or the survival of that cause. but it's

hard to understand what's more important for them at this point of time if whether it's a for them. i mean the from them. i think that issue whether it is put on the table or where somewhere there is a survival of the system by through we should they have been falling off a little g p for 500 years and they understand that he's finishing and that's why i'm in there so well, because the west with the old, old jewel gorgeous achievements, have been living off the exploitation who had called to buy direct and cold. it is nicole nase and we go bullies, etc, etc, of the rest of the world. and that is finished. that's why i'm in, even without understanding that they're western the leads are us. so

i negative on this issue of acceptable or dignified means of conducting a confrontation among enemies. do you think at this point, there is anything that that is off limits when it comes to russia? i hope i hope that we're not going to use nuclear weapons massively. massively the keyboard here. and this is a strategic partner. there is one strange notion strategic plan on this rather ambiguous note. we have to live there, but i appreciate your wisdom as always. thank you very much. it was a pleasure and thank you for watching hope to see you again on the well the part ah

with . mm hm. so what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have crazy confrontation, let it be an arms race is on very dramatic development. only nationally, i'm going to resist. i don't see how that strategy will be successful, very difficult time to sit down and talk i a

lot. we have which are ours. we make, you know, i'm not know, let you really care about me. if you care about the play. i wish somebody could just tell me why they're all treat, lansing, beating poverty. why supremacy is disgusting. amber. the people in mississippi voted on a wire, and 65 percent of the people voted to keep the car and why. our purpose is to defend the good name and the confederates held because of these monuments that you see everywhere or not can. they're not monuments to the can better go their monuments to the, to the soldiers to better. you know, if we're going to be offended by everything, every negative part of our history, we have to get rid of everything. oh

i ah, these are the consequences of yet another our children strike by ukraine against residential areas. this house was reduced to rubble, party visits, one of several residential areas of done yes, sorry to by ukrainian forces in the latest attacks. as 4 people are reported injured during saturday, shelling and in the store is a shave. the news this week, russia rejoins the great export deal at the ukraine promises it won't use the humanitarian car at all for military purposes, for moscow stresses that if it fails again, it will deliver grain to low income countries for free.