[000:00:00;00] ah ah, energy prices are sorry, and it's not just oil. natural gas is up to 700 percent since the start of last year and is quickly becoming the driving force that shape geo politics. today. i'm christy i and you're watching the cost of everything. today we'll take a look at why the cost of oil is storing around the world and what it will take to finally bring prices back down with natural gas used to be

a sleepy commodity. but now many countries have actually turned to natural gas as a part of a transition to cleaner energy. 44 countries imported l n g last year, almost twice as many as a decade ago. and the rising cost is one of the main reasons why inflation just hit a fresh record in europe. germany had to cut natural gas consumption and instead increase the burning of coal in recent months as gas prom rushes gas firm even before the nordstrom sabotaged, announced that it was cutting gas supplies to the north stream one pipeline due to technical problems. so in order to make up the shortfall in its energy supplies, jeremy restarted coal plants and they aren't the only ones. austria, italy, and the netherlands are all resurrecting coal as gas supplies dwindled. so despite europe, finger wagging a china and india for not cutting carbon emissions enough, they're actually now in the same boat as clean energy tech is simply not mature

enough to supply all of the excess demand. coal usage is now up 51 percent from a year ago in europe. so as the pot calling the kettle, black, seeing as europe was so quick to condemn china and india at the parents, the agreement for not cutting coal aggressively. age. on the other hand is now becoming the default market for russian oil without western buyers. russia has been forced to drop their prices significantly and cut deals in order to move it oil inventory, and who doesn't love a good deal? yes, asian buyers have been the main beneficiaries of the conflict in eastern europe, china and india. they've taken a record amount of russian crude after the u. s. u k, and the u rolled out sanctions against moscow. so let's talk about china, where china's crude imports from russia sword and may lifting purchases to nearly 7 and a half $1000000000.00, which is double the amount of a year ago. displacing saudi arabia as the top supplier customs data show that the

oil was purchased at an average price of $93.00 a barrel last month, which is about $17.00 cheaper than the imports from saudi arabia during the same time period. meanwhile, and india is also talking to russia about ramping up its oil purchases at a considerable discount based on current crude prices, it will represent about 20 percent discount. india imports a to 85 percent of its oil. so discount like this would be a huge win. and with today's government of india it's motivations are more economic them political. so the benefits of cheap oil outweigh the pressures from the west. but remember, when it comes to the cost of oil, none of this is natural. it's all self sanctioning. there isn't an oil shortage from a commodity standpoint. it's simply people not picking up oil and banks not providing credit because they don't like the country selling it. they don't want to buy from russia because the west is trying to punish moscow economically. but self sanctioning is a double edge sword,

and consumers and businesses in the west are feeling punishment of higher prices. oil prices are now around 80 percent higher than they were a year ago. so let's go deeper on this and bring in bob i, a chino co founder, chief market strategist at past trading partners. so bob, you have your opinions turning back and refining a whole plan again to plug up the shortfall in energy these days. how big is the short fall in energy and why can't renewable energy take its place? well, it's a combination of things. first of all, renewable energy is nowhere near ready to take the place of the energy needs and the you are really anywhere else for that matter. for example, take germany according to most reports, they've pledged to roll out renewable energy at a much more aggressive rate than a lot of the other countries in the e u. their natural gas usage, however, only fell by about 6 percent from 2020 to 2021. now that's not as aggressive as you

might think, from the rhetoric coming out of germany. by some estimates. russia accounts for 35 to 50 percent of the natural gas that goes into germany. so obviously the disparity there is between the seasons right? between summer, between heating homes. some estimates say that 50 percent of homes get heated in germany with russia natural gas. so the short ball is not only a matter of the transition being too quick, but obviously with the some might say, unforeseen conflict between russia and ukraine. this is a bigger shortfall than it otherwise would have been. but the transition to green energy is really the reason for the core of the problem. so do you think that renewable energy will ever be as cost efficient as traditional fossil fuel? are we still a long ways off from that? why yes, the answer to that is, yes, it will eventually be as cost efficient as fossil fuel. any answer is also yes,

we're a long, long way from that. even electric vehicles, for example, replacing internal combustion engines in the us, you would not have the percentage of the market taken up by electric vehicles. had it not been, or government subsidies. so some people might say that's the government giving you back your own money to buy a better technology, but it's not even really a better technology yet. for example, if you were to drive from florida where i am to chicago, where i am from, it would take $4.00 to $5.00 days in the highest performing electric vehicles versus a day and a half in an internal combustion engine. so while those are some of the more advanced green sort of products that we have out there, you're still not matching fossil fuel products in fossil fuel vehicle. so from that perspective, when you're looking at renewables, it is likely the future one way or the other. but we are a long way from a being an affordable future from us consumers. it seems like absolute hypocrisy actually went just

a few months ago. europe was berating china and india for being non committal with their carbon pledges. so now that europe has backtracked, are we seeing any backlash on them? well, i guess it depends on who you ask. if you think about the backlash, the group of people that whose main priority is to reduce the effect of human carbon emissions on climate change. that group with larger when gasoline prices were at $250.00 a gallon, and when natural gas prices were back in their normal, acceptable, reasonable range. as those prices go up, that block of people who again, that is their number one concern shrinks and it's shrink significantly. and it shows you again how comfort in your day to day life and kind of breed this altruism . so when you look at it from that perspective, yes, there's backlash or the new, but it's probably not as large as it would be. had the prices been at what people again considered to be more of

a reasonable rate. and this is again the problem with the bass transition and you might not even call it fast. and you look at some of the estimates the out of paris basically said that they're going to reduce the global communities are committed to reducing carbon emissions by about 20 percent. but when you look at the individual government targets, it only reaches about 11 percent. this is by 2030, so the backlash has been there, but probably not as strong as it otherwise would have been. other than that, our other sources of fuel going to see the light of day france relies heavily on nuclear energy. will nuclear c a resurgence in europe? so i guess i have to answer that, that number one, i hope so, is my 1st answer. and number 2, it really depends on the sort of political commitment to an actual, concise and comprehensive energy strategy, not just in the us, not just in the you,

but globally, to me. when you look at the makeup of nuclear energy, it's probably the perfect transition fuel. if you want to get off carbon and onto green as green technologies, fully green as green technologies get better and better and better. and that will happen, you know, technological advances happen very slowly and then all at once we've seen that over the decades. so from a perspective of that, nuclear is probably the perfect solution because it's clean. some people perceive it as dangerous. it's been on the decline since the let's call it a disaster into ashima. but really, some of the technological masses in nuclear make it a lot more possible used to have somewhere in the range of a 15 to 20 year lead time on nuclear power plants because of some of the smaller plants that are being built. now that shrunk from more to 7 to 10 years from that $15.00 to $20.00, but it's going to take government commitments to purchase that energy to purchase that nuclear power driven electricity. if companies don't get that commitment,

they won't commit the capitals building these things. so unfortunately, getting to nuclear is a public, private achievement if it were to happen and the public has to get behind it. and that needs a comprehensive energy policy, which we haven't seen in many of the major economies in quite a long time. that's bob i, chino co founder, chief market strategist, a power train partner. thank you so much for joining us today. when me return, even though there is a push for renewable energy, the reality is free energy is not even close to being ready to power. the real world bothell fields are here to say, we'll have more of the branding. mm hm. is the aggression today, i'm authorizing the additional strong sanctions. today. russia is the country with the most sanctions imposed against it. and number those constantly growing. i

figure which of the problem was to call sure, as we speak on lennon, louise, senior, mostly mine or will ship. we're banding all imports of russian oil and gas. new g. i suffering the piper i have been. i know they plenty of those with liquor can get away. but if you haven't gotten joe by imposing these sanctions on russia, you know, has destroy the american economy. so there's your boomerang self . lou needs to come to russian state patrol narrative. i've tied as i phone and ignore slam ski with keith in 55 with. okay,

so mine is 2000 speedy. one else with we will ban in the european union, the kremlin media machine, the state on russia today, and split ortiz spoke neck, given our video agency, roughly all band to on youtube. and pinterest and with, ah, ah, i want to with this with you with you. i'm

with mike still with full credit. it's going to be able to reach out to still be patient,

but in the middle that there was a wrong one. i just don't have to say because the advocate and engagement it was the trail when so many find themselves well the part we choose to look so common ground. ah yes. now you need your lease. it's typically smear to melting. you know them with the new book is up for the next we should be radius. young will showcase is use

a laser w boy. ah ah, what would be the mom of new and it'll be a photo imagery of the water with the mom. but i know to put it in but whole. ah, welcome back. when we talk about the cost of energy, there is one critically important fact that to keep in mind, every nation relies on energy not just to expand, but simply to exist. when we measure g d p,

today we look at things like the number of cars sold or the number of air trucks, people make corporate world, new construction, etc. but all of that still relies on energy, whether it's thermal renewable oil. so setting politics aside, fossil fuel is here to stay, at least in the intermediate future until renewable energy becomes more reliable and readily available. so let's dive deeper with dr. richer wolf, professor of economics. professor wolfe, how do you think africa can transition to clean energy when they are already suffering from energy poverty, with many, still not even having access to a modern grid? well, you know, there are many examples in history where a society deemed economically less advance was able to catch up because it could jump over intermediate steps. i remember once

talking to a friend of mine in italy who explained that they never went through a modern really well developed postal system. they just don't jump from their under developed postal system, right up into email and one half and all the other electronic ways of communicating . and they are by caught up if you like. and even in the sense over took other parts of the world. and it's a kind of borrowing from one part of the world to another. but for africa, here's the issue. they have access to the sun. a lot of it, solar energy for them can move them up in the realm of, of energy, accessibility, energy availability, and also cost because enormous advances in solar energy has been going on and continue to go on. so while i agree with you,

that fossil fuels are not something you can do away with overnight, and indeed are things that modern society provokes the need for. it is also true that other forms not fossil fuel based, are available, are becoming more accessible, more affordable. and i think africa will be in a position to take advantage of that. if they get the finances to make that possible. and now countries are all trying to rain in the rising cost of energy. the u. s. is once again trying to push legislation down the no pac act as an answer to opec. do you think this has any legs and what are the possible repercussions by the oil market? well, and my guess is it won't. and i, and the reason for that is because i believe a good point of the political logic around the war in the ukraine is

a displaced form of oil politics um, oil and gas politics if you want. and that the benefits that have accrued from the war for oil and gas companies. and the i recently took a look at the just the share price of x on mobile. you know, it's doubled in the last year a lot less than a year. ok. it's a wonderful time to be in the oil and gas business around the world. the lesson of that is lost on absolutely no one in that business. and given the tensions rising in the world, given the role of the growing bricks, part of the world that does rely on fossil fuels and is not about to make a shift that has their side effect, of making them in a poor position because they're not as far along in the transition to renewables, et cetera, et cetera. i think you're going to see

a continuation of relying on fossil fuels and a very hard row for any activity in any country that under cuts that i it will be offset by other developments because the forces that make that possible are still strong enough to do that and do you think that the interest in breaks from a lot of the developing nations does that have anything to do with the interest in access to cheaper source as a fuel and is the 3rd world repelling against the green agenda? i think there's elements of that rebellion, we've seen that for years that india and china have had a solidarity around those questions that is older even than the bricks. ment. i think the recent information we're getting that bricks is about to expand on the list of countries is remarkable. not just iran, as you might have expected, but saudi arabia,

but also countries like turkey and argentina. the growing interest in griggs means that's all of the energy politics that used to have to do with the advanced west. and china and india are now going to see a very important growth. if these countries that i just mentioned joined the brick that will be more than half the population of this planet. and no amount of india, logical propaganda is going to change the fact that the whole center of gravity around all of these questions is in the process of being changed. and the irony, if i can return for a moment to it, is that the ukraine, which was supposed to be a war, i mean, there are supposed to be some sort of holding on to something that existed

before is in fact, like other wars having the unintended consequence, at least in the last unintended of solidifying the growth and the emergence of what simply is another center of the world economy. professor richard, well, it's always a pleasure. thank you so much for your time. ah, when it comes to the cost of energy, there will always be winners and losers. and while we spend most of our time today discussing higher oil prices, let's not forget that the market is a 0 sum game and one person's loss is another person's game as much as we hate to admit it. so who wins when the cost of n genius? hi. well, he has a global oil, a giant recording, some of their best profit figures in decades. and at the very top, saudi aramco, the world's largest oil company, reported more than an 80 percent growth in its profit in march quarter oil majors

like exxon chevron shell. petro china have all reported year over year earning growth of 80 to 250 percent. and the other big winner here, our shipping transports and container carriers. these guys, in the 3rd quarter of 2021 reported an average operating profit margin of over 56 percent up from just 3.7 just 2 years earlier. so the logistics industry is currently experiencing the highest constant peak and increased cost. and with the ongoing conflict with ukraine and rising oil prices, the price of bunker fuel is expected to search, possibly driving up freight rates again in the coming months. and the meanwhile, the biggest loser is unfortunately are the citizens of these countries, such as germany and belgium, who are now turning to wood as the heating source this winter as gas applies, remain tight. but unfortunately, the price of firewood has now risen from $40.00 euros and 2021 to around

a 150 year olds and thumb regions. so why does that leave us? where will we be 3 to 4 months from now? i really don't see any resolution here, as i think the oil market will continue to remain tight. my prediction is that by this winter we will see the price of oil around a $125.00 to $130.00 a barrel. thank you for watching. i'm christy i of see you next time for the cost of everything. ah ah ah away so no one no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. well, door more real than what the unit 731 was

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no problem like i was supposed to do a little bit of that. you know, you mentioned way of what you know say did you mention here that we brought it up? oh great. yeah, go run it. that was almost ah, the headlights right now. what are the international one is to 1000000000 it killed another wounded off the reports of ukrainian army shelling of houses and apartment buildings and heavy damage. and they've gone yet to public, as you can see. and these are also a headboard applicants solving. they'll problems and the mass that was caused by the global not now with the ongoing un climate change conference addressing issues . for example, that have rising pollution. what some countries are actually coming under fire for