area and also in afghan, his tongue. so if we go further, i mean germany kept out of iraq in 2003 and a flu beyond 2011. but many western countries led to by the united states, intervened there in a very, a brutal way, which was not backed by international law. and so we have to see that we get out of those double standards and look at those things as they are. and what kind of reaction do you expect to these statements by the german chancellor from the public? i mean, does it look like german tax pay them vote as a concerned that ukraine is allegedly being used as an excuse to dig into their pockets? well, in the end, the whole country hold germany is losing the economies losing ground in germany and is looking to works, shifts of employment to the u. s. to china and to other countries with

a better circumstances in terms of energy, prohibition. and this is what hurts the whole country. so it's not only the citizens that are being hurt, it's the economy that is being heard is also the policy options of german policy. foreign policy which are being limited by out actions that are not in the interest of germany, itself. many thanks to joins on the product line. right. well 1st vice president of the various a f t party, appreciate it. thank you. and we appreciate you and your time you are not in to national. thanks for joining us. ah ah,

ah. hello and welcome to cross stock where all things are considered. i'm peter labelle. the conflict can ukraine, as you demonstrated tactics can win propaganda and narrative points. while strategy will ultimately determine the political outcome of this conflict. here in its western backers, excel and tactics, it keeps the conflict going. is this enough to trump moscow's long term strategic goals? ah, discuss these issues and more. i'm joined by my guess, jordan, samuel l. e. in budapest, he's a pod cast or at the goggle which can be found on youtube and locals. and here in moscow we have maxine swartzkoff. he is the director of the center for advanced american studies and moscow state institute of international relations. for a gentleman cross stack rules and effect,

that means you can jump anytime you want. and i would appreciate it for. let's start with georgia in budapest and george over the last few days we've had this real flurry of, you know, is a negotiations going to break out. you know, we had sold in, in our kia and then we have general mill lane. they joined, cheapest staff are saying this is a good point and before the winter sets in for negotiations, i think he said, and he hm, there's an opportunity you should seize it. ok. i mean, are they talking among themselves? are they making overtures? how do you read this? well, it is very difficult to discern what any of this about it caught to see how at this stage, any serious negotiations are possible. because what is there to negotiate about having said that, it's also hard to figure out exactly what is going on without question. the russian with roll from harrison city is politically

a problem for russia. because now you can think of russia's initial objectives when it launched the special military operations, which is some demilitarization, dean optic ation, and the liberation of the don't ask and the guns not none of these as it has yet been achieved. now this is what we've seen when the withdrawn may well be just a, a strategic with role in preparation for the and offensive. sometime during this winter may be delayed, maybe into next spring. but at the same time, it stopped immediately clear what this offensive will be about, what, what's the, what the strategic objectives will the russian forces seek to attain in this offensive. so at this stage, i think there's a lot up in the air. and really,

when i'm real questions about what russia is trying to achieve, what russia has deployed sufficient resources in order to achieve so no, i think i started don't regard any of the diplomatic overtures as anything very serious . but they, what the, the, the strategic situation is also some problematic mex, basically the same thing to you because essentially it gets bound to this flurry of talk is it is, this is talk within the political leads in the united states also including nato. and then also the from in sky regime here, there for getting a very important home in it called russia. ok, mean that's what i find very peculiar because it is that there are a telegraphing their position publicly among among 2 sets include excluding the

3rd set, which would be moscow here. so how do you, what do you make of this? it doesn't mean anything whatsoever, or is it just a fundraising event to keep people interested in the conflict in the west as what europe descends into recession? we cannot make the choice in the you, k is becoming dire. i mean, no one can give 3 cheers the economy in the us. so i, my 1st reaction is it's a diversion and it's a distraction. max, your thoughts will come in there if you waste, look at what's going on. i guess one as, as been read here is that need just may be in a way claiming kind of a starting bargaining position and part of the united states because of the russia . there is a clear bottom line. and part of the us least that they're the, the, they want to avoid escalating the conflict to the point where it may become, you know, not everyone gets, it's not, you know, just about your pain. but in, in a case of this escalation being taken to a nuclear level,

it won't behave how you can at all. so to say, so i think it's clear. ready that the unit us leadership monster would that scenario. on the other hand, i think there is a sense both within ukrainian and american elite that they need to seize on them and them while the ukraine is still on the offensive. well, russia is, you know, recreating beyond that, they deliver on the other side of the river and they, they, they care some city and they want to kind of cement the moment as you clearly appoint and rightly might you want me to out in your introduction. you know, before the winter, where the calculus may change, and i think there is a sense in us and ukraine elite can only term long term time is rather on, on the russia side. whereas on the short term, i was on the us side. and the, as russia is now on the retreat, you know, they want to seize the moment and say, hey, here's your chance. moscow to date are deal none of the things. and

none of the goals and objectives that you stated before. the special manager operation have been achieved, but you are losing, you know, with think you're losing, here's your chance to say face. and here it is. the question is, of course, now what's, what's going to happen on, on the, you know, the all kinds of decisions that maybe take in a rush side because, you know, the pollutants press. secretary escal stated that harrison is still in a constitutionally part of russia. we didn't exclude it from, from the russian territory, which means russia still maintains both political will and the military objective to recapture in some time whether it's going to happen or not happen. whether it's some agreement behind that or would know there's all kinds of speculation a way now. so but yeah, i think clearly on the us side, you know, it's an attempt to cement the status quo as it is of today now,

which will give you brain some time, perhaps, to regroup, to re arm. and, you know, consider even further movements you know, to, to, to capture don bass and perhaps even crimea. yeah. even in a few years. yeah. ok. let me it. thank you max for saying that. ok. in a few years, george, what people are talking about is this simply nonsense because it doesn't resolve anything. this is what i find very frustrating is like, you know, the way they sees on, you know, that the, the, the, the, the moment where, you know, we have ukranian troops advancing russian around the russian zone with making a strategic withdrawal. i mean, this is, i can battle, it has nothing to do with the outcome of all war. ok. i find this very, very confusing. go here, george. no, it, it really is because from russia perspective, i mean if, if

a ceasefire were to be put in place now, then russia will achieve nothing. and so they, so, and ukraine would immediately begin preparations for the next offensive. because because for the united states, this is a war, this relatively on the cheap and he's working quite nicely for all of the, you know, it's, keeps the arms industry humming along nicely. and it's bloody in russia. it's, it's, it's weakening in feebly russia. and that's, that's all that the united states is seeking to achieve and ukraine doesn't really care about, you know, getting territory back so much as weakening and hurting rusher. so that, that objective of the united states has to be the chief. so if a c, y were put in place now, and then this will be in preparation for a renewed ukrainian offensive, maybe next year, maybe in 2 years time. so russia will not have achieved anything through sci fi. so

the idea that with roll from house on city was in preparation for some kind of a deal that, that makes absolutely no sense. i told them, i don't think the government in the kremlin could possibly. so why. i think that the question is, what is russia planning on? i would certainly think that they are planning for an offensive in maybe in the winter, or maybe in the early spring. and then we really raise the question, how will that offensive and secure some of their goals? because 300000 was also forces that they're planning to deploy for such a defense, if that doesn't sound like it's enough, i mean, i think you need much more than that. and then you have to raise the question, what should need to mobilize more seriously to achieve the objectives and all

awhile in the, in ukraine would be turned into the front line for nato. oh, wow. so, you know, i'm actually again, what i find quite the funneling is that quote unquote ceasefire. well, who, who will say that? i mean the russians will have gained nothing at great expense. the ukrainians will have lost even more of their country. i don't see how any side, if we look at the training side in the russian side, wouldn't get anything out of such an agreement. i mean, george is a spot on right. i mean, the u. s. is getting this on the cheat. ok. and what it is, is, again, in my introduction, i talked about tactics versus strategy. this is showing telegraphing to the world that rushes in a bind, which is sending a message to the global se, sending a message to china. and do you see we told you not get in line? this is, this is only working to the united states. that's why you quoted,

this got to the spokesperson. you know, nothing is really changed here. your thoughts. busy i agree, i mean look in my view, the u. s. kind of strategy in even the, in the, in the context of recently rolled out national security strategy clearly lays out china is a key and an only strategic challenger, an adversary in the 21st century, which suggested other you know, a challenger's and adversary such as russia has to be constrained. well, i'll, i'll call it on the cheap, it's not, you know, on the cheaper say, but it means that there's gotta be a system constructed around them that enables us to constrain them and to contain them while, you know, focusing on china, in case of russia, in live you, it suggests that there are a few kind of geopolitical literatures and kind of spokes food in place that limit the rushes maneuver and rushes influence over europe at any in depth sense. i think

us doesn't care for ukraine's territory or say it cares a bar. how much of that land russia has. it only in regard of how much you believe leverage russia will have over ukraine in europe. but what it cares about in a crane is that crane may stays within the west's military and political orbit. well, probably outside of nato, but it doesn't mean that, you know, even if it has non nato status, it won't be able to receive all kinds of arms. not security guarantees per se, but you know, even more enhanced military training even more, you know, enhanced intelligence and political presence in the country. that ultimately, i think, upsets the very objective of the russian operation. you know, to drag ukraine out of the of the orbit, which i think makes all the resolution of the country even more complicated regardless of the tactical movements on the ground. george,

your thoughts real quick before we go to the right? i think so. i think it's a, there's no question that as far as the united states is concerned, they just going to keep ukraine as a force directed at russia. i mean, it's not so much membership in native, but that as a problem, you know, essentially a battleship directed of russia for years to come because it will, it'll in feeble russia and will be a major and they pull them for years. but we're going to go to a short break, and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on some real estate. ah a

new deal? no exposure to you guys with project or whatever. with that other was the money is done love. it is william with a beer that would limit

welcome back to cross that were all things are considered. i'm peter. well, this is a home addition to remind you. we're discussing some real. ah i just go back to my moscow. you know, i, on this program i try to remind our viewers of the bigger picture here. and i go back to history, december 17th of last year, when no rush communicated very clearly publicly to nato and to the united states about its security demands in the penny or a space that hasn't changed again, going back to the beginning of our program, this seems nonsensical for me to think that or to believe that moscow would settle for so little actually in the negative. if we think about that the,

their demands before the complex started and where they were sitting right now that it was all for not max. well, i would, i would even make it go. and even this far to suggest that the situation is even worse, a given the, you know, the, the, the, the length of the border would need to is it is now even bigger given, you know, the membership. but the thing here is, i guess that i find problematic. i think russia is literally formulated what it doesn't want, but i don't hear moscow formulating what it's clearly wants. and what if suggested, once a warm be embraced by the united states. and it's hard to impose these things on the united states. so i guess there's got to be some creative movements on board of russia to make the west feel they really need this deal and that they can't win this conflict on the chief. they can't make european stay on the prices that they

want a bird. you know, i really the key here because again, and i hope i'm me, i will be eventually proven 100 percent. correct. is it this has been tactics. it's about controlling the narrative. um, if i go back to george here on the, on the, the, the, when sullivan was in cam talking to zalinski, you know, you know, doing an attaboy and padding on the back and all that. but you can also interpret that as you know, zelinski and i got a little bit be a little bit more finessed here about negotiations it made. it doesn't have to be real ok, but you have to be more flexible. what flexible publicly? because it always, europeans are really worried about inflation high energy. and if we, there's no hope, no hope at all from you in your regime that there will be negotiations. that's a net loss, not for the united states, per se, but for the coalition of the willing that if you're desperately trying to keep

together, i'd like to point out to everyone, the japanese have broken ranks and they're staying with the cycling project, which is very, very important to japan, very important to russia. so the sanction of global sanction regime against russia is cracking. so i mean, again, this is kind of like smoke and mirrors. and as i said in my interject introduction, george, just to keep it going. george. yes, on the other hand, is in other way looking at it is that the cracks in the global sanctions regime doesn't really work for russia because from russia, one to view what has really worked so far has been the pain that it's inflicted on the west. and therefore it's to rushes advantage to keep that pain going. if they stop doing backroom deals with all of the european countries, we'll skip over sanctions with this country. so in all the sanctions with that country, then europe is off the hook. you know, the winds are wont be quite as bad as they're expecting. you know,

they'll still be a little bit of gas. those will be some energy. you know, the industry will stay and therefore russia will not have achieved the pain that it should achieve in the labor and the leg. yeah, that's right. so it's a problem. the russia has been rather risk of us in it's a military operation. it's risk of us in terms of the casualties. it's willing to sustain risk averse as to how much pain no gas does, that they're willing to inflate on the ukrainians. risk averse about getting into a serious military confrontation with nato. and then risk averse about bringing the european economy to its knees. so that means you know, you're a, couldn't get through this winter without as much problem. if i have a month or so ago and rushes problems remain because the, you know,

the americans are just going to keep boring more and more on it. do you great. so maybe the only way out of this is a serious military offensive in russia, which really puts no grain on the back of the make a deal. i personally think that's what's in the cards right now, and i personally think it's going to happen sooner than later. but you know, maxie, if you look at the history of modern warfare, no shock and awe lead the brand from the u. s. with the amount of iraq specifically, russia hasn't engaged in anything like that. ok. the internet cafe still work in keira. celebrity still visit lensky. and, you know, you know, if you can report on what's going on in ukraine from a cafe when you know what's going on and they dont, i mean i watch, you know, cable new me who i said they are very few people actually had the problem. they were sitting in their hotel rooms, and then we had about 2 weeks ago,

a little over 2 weeks ago we had russia demonstrated it's pain dial by taking out a good part of the electricity grid, smoke parts of it still exists. obviously it has to 1000000000 used, but this also has a military dual use. and again, you know, if you're in a conflict where it's kind of existential, it's puzzling that russia doesn't put more effort into it because, you know, getting things to the front. they're big things, you put them on trains and if there's no electricity for trains, you can get to the front, you get what i'm talking about, go ahead. was there, you know, all the talk in the western media about rushes and escalation to nuclear level. in my view is interesting and it's understandable, given the russian president spoke about it and our number of occasions, a low likely different context that is portrayed in the western media. but i think the issue here is that russia hasn't actually employed

a lot of non nuclear options that it could have employed that could have changed, you know, the, the, the status for the conflict to its favor and a horse in all are a lot of people including military experts and political politicians are asking why this hasn't taken and i think and part george answered that question rush has been incredibly risk averse, but also it doesn't seek to escalate to that level. but there are a few things like, you know that the long range aviation hasn't, won't a single white other there kinds of missile strikes on the infrastructure that are used for carrying the weapons from nato countries to the united to the brain and so on, so forth. so that is a force one thing on the table, the other things on the table. the thing given the recent election results in the us, it remains to the seeing whether the if the republican controlled house will put even more pressure on the urban allies. as republicans with most probably do and make

them pay for paying him terribly and financially. and whether this will entail in some kind of displeased between you know, americans and europeans and most also whether the republicans will start any stretch or control of the funds. i will be to, to train, i don't think it will dramatically change supporting train policy because it seems for now to be a bipartisan issue. but i is still seeing the accent will, will, will change and they may also have some impact on the outcomes. i'm glad you brought up the midterm. that's where i wanted to go. george, what are your thoughts here? because i think it was more kevin mccarthy's comment. you know? no blank check and all that, i think that was the throw away cheap political, red meat. because there are a lot of conservatives,

the thing why we pay. why don't we control our border, why we're worried about another countries borders, but i, i don't think it was very genuine because it is very bipartisan and it gets, it gets a number of republicans off the j d. vans and coming senator, you know, that's my position. it's not going to change anything. do you think ahead? no, not in the night. this is the say, i mean, mcgaffey just did this as a thought to wing within the republican party. that clearly is happy about ukraine's, but that wing is very small. i mean, when it's, you know, we can name the, the congress people and j d on that one, all in one, starbucks. right? and to be honest, things are looking at the moment. it's not even clear, the republicans are going to control the house as happens in the united states. the longer the both count continues, the more miraculously that the democrats win. and so i think the americans need to,

you know, study on brazilian politics because they seem to get the vote out and they get that . but he's on high and low politics is the longer the vote goes on, the more likely these are the democrats prevails or every single seat with the votes account that the democrats miraculously, when so at the moment, kevin mccarthy may not, in fact end up as the speaker of the house, but even if he were i, i don't think republicans would change policy very much. it might change a way to return to the white house, but that's already at the very least 2 years down the road. so i don't think anything very much will change there, but no one has to see though, and you know, what happens if the, if this coming russian offensive then in a serious problems where your brain does the united states, then the side that you know, they've got a real problem on their hands,

if in the event of a total ukrainian, a little trick collapse, that happens then, then the americans might a some peace negotiations as well. unless there is a complete a americans on going to stop. well my, my theory really real quickly and it's a subject for an entire program actually. the way i look at it is this withdrawal is ukrainian to move in. they will take it and then we could possibly see a major pincer, a stalin grad like a band, obviously not in the same magnitude, but it's kind of a knockout blow them. george and i are alluding to 32nd stevie. i know it's not fair to throw that she would 32nd. they could give it a shot anyway, i think look, i just conclude by saying that it's not over until it's over right back in the world war 2. detox made it as far as the sound, right, as you mentioned, as for thrown back all the way to berlin so that it see another there may be in the

moment, may not be in russia's favor or it is, but there is some plan behind it. i can't really say i'm not in that on the circle, but like i said, there are multiple things and multiple leverages on both ends and that is not over yet all the time. we have gentlemen, fascinating discussion. i want to thank my guest in budapest and here in moscow, and i think our viewers for watching us here in our to see you next time. remember crossed up hills. ah a wrong one. i just don't know. i have to shape out because the african and engagement equals the trail. when so many find themselves worlds apart, we choose to look for common ground. a

ah ukraine bounds journalists for reporting from her phone, which has been locked down by k of the military. me wall and non t washing purge needs to some people being harassed and with a killer being 1st to show up at the crime scene. that's what turkey has called washington's condolences. i was a deadly terra talking. it's stumbled which encore blames on allegedly us back to kurdish with you as president gets friendly with his chinese counterparts defined joe biden earlier pledging to act tough with.