ah, ah ah ah, ah ah ah, ah, ah, ah, ah ah,

i, i hello and welcome to cross stock where all things are considered. i'm peter lavelle. nato is hybrid war against russia just became more dangerous and frightening. a missile fired from ukraine by ukrainians landing in poland, clearly demonstrates what can go wrong due to a mistake or miscalculation. of course, the collective west instantly move towards invoking article 5 of the nato treaty, which means starting world war 3. i crossed, sucking dangerous times. i'm joined by my guess, anthony kevin in australia. he's a former australian career diplomat and ambassador to poland and cambodia in brussels. we have gilbert doctorow. he's an independent political analyst and

author of memoirs of an ex pat manager in moscow during the 1990s. and in belgrade we have james, generous. he's a former us diplomat and former advisor q u. s. senate republican leadership or a gentleman cross i girls. in fact, that means you can jump any time you want. and i always appreciated gilbert. let me go to you 1st and brussels. what a week it has already been. we have this fiasco with a missile being fired that it landed in poland. of course, every we got one goes on edge, but you know, i've been talking about this ever since the started the conflict and actually before and i've always and many other people have predicted exactly a situation like this, the could get out of control. unfortunately, gilbert, there seemed to be people that wanted to go to the next step. this is where we are in very dangerous times. thankfully, a number of people have set taken a step back away from the brink. your thoughts on this situation? gilbert of what happened this week, look very much like

a false flag operation in which russia would be hold out in front of the world. in this particular case, in front of nato. as they would enter into talks about invoking. i article floor of rocks even article 5. it looked very much like a forced like operations when like force flag operations that had been in the recent past. and i would go back here to then age 17. and what to the force flag and syrian syria over alleged chemical attacks by the bunch not the, the regime. the issue here i was stopped in its tracks by united states. that tells us a couple of things. a wind president biding a few hours after news of this not missile strike. and poland told reporters that he had reason to believe that russia was not behind it. that changed the game. this is the 1st time in any such potential. a false flag operation with united states

has been in the one to pull the plug in at all and to say that it has the own recognizance information that cruise for that scoot add to their satisfaction. that missile was not fired from russia. similar reconnaissance information, shirley was available for the m h 17 but was not put into play. but back then, the issue was one of simply a propaganda war. information war is created russia and to bring in new sanctions. if this particular false flag proceeded, implications were far more devastating. it would, since russia and denied and united states nato are in a proxy war, it will escalate it into a real war which has as its logical conclusion, a nuclear exchange. ok, that reason we saw the nice they stepped back, which it hasn't done in the past. they had united states use the information that

it was available to state because the russians were not responsible, cuts dramatic change. and so put a hopeful change. well, let me go to anthony and australia. hopefully, maybe this could be a trend because we've had 10 months of this horrific propaganda and one sided narrative. and, and what happened this week if you go up to the brain care and this is the nightmare that you know, going back to dr. strange of if you will. i agree with gilbert that you know that it was good that the us took a step back. but if we look at everything over the last few months, encouraging the zelinski regime to do these or get involved in these kinds of affairs. i mean, there has to be some lessons learned from that. your thoughts, gilbert? i'm sorry, anthony. in australia. i agree with skill, but it was a very dangerous man and i don't necessarily agree with him that it was delivered false flag crimes. i think lensky has a bit of

a habit of being highly irresponsible. irrational mass. i think he opportunistically tried in his usual way to take advantage of what was a military mistake on the part of the friday and. and he crapped miss launches, who sent it off in the direction of poland, which was obviously not what they intended to do. and the land you opportunistically thought, well, you know, let's, let's try and make a out of this. and he failed. and i think it's really important that as gilbert says that the united states and this means that the spell has been broken. and i will says little boy, scribe will too often. perhaps you think something changed in the way in which the west now thinks about the lindsey? yeah, well well, we'll see with this name dot congress if they're going to give 37600000000 more

dollars. we'll see if that happens there. james, i mean, can you explain something to me, or you have the lensky and his gang wanting to do everything in their power to have get nato into a hot war with russia? it's a proxy war with russia now, but get into a hot war. ukraine doesn't come out very well and in a hot war, does it? can you explain to me why they're so keen on it go ahead in belgrade work? well, let's be clear that is the lead sky regime, and that's what i would want to call. it doesn't really care about the gradient, people about ukraine. they're the voice of hysterical russel phobia that, that really only defines their concept of ukraine in opposition to russia than by any means necessary. they will, if they can drive the western powers into this more, i don't think it's time to the champagne corks. yes, that the west has begun the road wake up about what kind of danger whites them if they allow zalinski and his crowd to drag us in. but it is encouraging. i saw

a piece in the financial times recently that some of there's some constant consternation among nato governments that they believe the ukrainians are lying to them. they're not playing straight with them. and whether it was deliberate or inadvertent, that dismissal ended and all, and i think some of them are belatedly starting to see the danger that they're in and on top of everything else. i don't think this is the kind of shenanigans we see from a country that believes in his winning this war with, despite all the propaganda that ukrainians are winning the russian pullback from prayer song and so forth. it's pretty clear that the gradients are, i think, reaching the end of the road. yeah, well, gilbert, i mean, it's something that i've said many times in this program. in this context of this conflict, the big party that escalates means that's the party bits losing ok. and the party that is losing will use as much propaganda and, and change the narrative as much as possible in its favor thoughts, gilbert? well, in the, in the west, in mainstream media. the notion that ukraine is losing is out of play.

the story we're here on the b, b, c that every one of their news, their news hours or on your own news is that ukraine is winning and that the spirit is stronger than that. on the contrary, the russian army, which has a morale problem. now the best that can be said is that the media are telling us that a winter is coming, and as the war will, what will wind down? and this is a good time for negotiations. why exactly russia would want to enter into action. at this point when so then sky adamantly posted, there's another question, but the likelihood is quite different from what the expectations of readers of western media would find. the likelihood is the russians will go on the country offensive in the middle of winter, which is the logic of their 220000 soldiers were finishing their, their training for this effort. these are reservists who aren't inducted for

indefinite period to sit in trenches. the war will continue and the russians will smash ukraine. and i think general milly understands that that is why there were voices in washington. no cold trying to go see it's not because it's, it's a good point particularly, but because they know the lot worse is to come for ukraine after the new year. yeah . well, anthony, i don't want to sound like put too much of a hard line or but if they're in negotiations and as far as i can see, it's ukraine, the negotiations for ukraine to surrender, to avoid what gilbert just said, go ahead, anthony. pretty much the question is, the longer the fanatics in p f, keep the sing going more territory and like the cry and risks losing permanently. and i want to mention this continuing attack on the cranium power grid because it's,

it's absolutely crucial this. i mean, at the moment it's minus 7 in level the wolf has lost 80 percent of it had our peers has lost something like 67 or 70 percent of this can't go on much longer. and the point is the ration right. continuing, not stopping. and the ukrainians have no effective way of stopping these very, which i actually targeted missiles which caused almost no casualty, by the way, getting their targets and simply destroying anthony if i could just if i could just jump in here before we go to the break here so this $37000000000.00 the by the ministration wants to say, is that going to change the electricity grid and ukraine anytime soon? no, no, i mean you can, you can input all the weapons you want, but if you haven't got electric power, he can't do very much with them. i think ukraine is going to collapse really quite quickly. the war effort is going to collect really quite quickly. lensky crew left

floundering around desperately. what? what i did in valley was desperate failed. everything is failing. i think it's going to unravel. you come together for russia, rather weekly. okay, let me get a james here. 40 seconds before the break here, but ukraine is winning. what's wrong with all of us on this program, james? go ahead. 45 minutes before we go to the break. well, i tell you here in the balkans, i hear a lot of concern for my serbian friends that russia not fall into the trap that they fell into in 1009 is where every time they had a military advantage, they'd stop and say ok, now let's move on toward an agreement. let's have a cease fire. let's negotiate in good faith and then found out that those, those, that was not a good faith from the other side. and i, you know, the russians need to think seriously about this, that when they do have the advantage, will they press the advantage where they stop and talk to their western partners,

but no intention of keeping any promises? yeah, well i think they have learned that lesson here. and i think if you look at the rhetoric that is coming out of russia is that they, they pretty much know the score and who they're dealing with here. and that's exactly what we're going to talk about when we come back from our break. gentlemen, i'm jumping in here. we're getting to which our break and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on dangerous time, staying with our team. ah, [000:00:00;00] ah

ah ah. ringback ready the question you spent with buckling that with him is us a full, still national quito, which is mostly due to room and young and the controllers alleged from when to do or not. but who do i a zones with national anthem complex. i spoke with campus that the copies wanted to get us the boys

a mm me ah ah, welcome back across like were all things are considered? i'm peter lavelle to remind you we're discussing dangerous times with okay, let's go back to gilbert's in brussels. get better that you're staying with this incident. happened this week. here it seems to me the, the, the zelinski regime and it's backers, they wanted to achieve 2 things. number one, i'm not necessarily world war 3, but to keep the coalition of the so called, willing to gather because it's beginning to fray, my winter setting in, in western europe to not just in ukraine and also to keep the spirit on, keep the money flowing because everyone know, we don't know what the next congress is going to do. i have very little faith in

republicans, but you know, they do have they, they will have charge of the purse. will they start thinking about how much money they get to spend to ukraine instead of denying it to american families, we will see. so it basically keep the coalition of the willing together and keep the money flowing that, that did serve its purpose here. go ahead. gilbert well, you're really accounts for nothing. you're it as a follower had best. you saw what happened in the initial reaction to the missile strike and poems, the baltic states immediately seized on this sound and it sounded like loud speakers for kids. they were calling for info cation of, of article 5. they were naming russia, direct, these responsible specialties. but give me hang on gilbert, and i want to unpack what you just said here. so we have the baltic states calling for the. so if there is

a hot war between nato and the boss thinks paid to the 1st the go, i mean, i, again, i don't understand the rationality of these people that are so anxious to have a hot military conflict with russia. can you explain it? well, again, the same issue that was brought up by my fellow talent analysts that mr. savanski does not, is not concerned about the ukrainian people is only concerned about this ideological war on russia and new identity for ukraine. the same is true of the baltic states and several other states in what were formerly warsaw pact, countries. the leadership in these countries was installed, but they're not staged in almost those stage managed away as ministers against his predecessors. in february, 2014 were installed in data. they are american agents. are not some of them have american citizenship or yes, this is

a line. they all were prepared for the roles they now enjoy. they are serving united states. they are given. busy honors and importance in european affairs that far outweighs their economic or cultural or any other dimension. you want to measure importance to europe. so they are, they are jackals. it is interesting that they were snubbed and shed and shut down at once when mister bite and said what he did about this not being a firing by a missile by, by brush it and go back to your question. what will happen in europe? europe will follow what united states tells europe to do, and any differences and cleavages that we see in your, between france and germany and germany and the baltics are whole and whatever these are insignificant, they will not lead to a change in the situation in the east west confrontation, the change the situation will be in washington, depending on, as you say,

the political calculus, domestic politics, calculus in the united states when the price of this becomes to be considering the other demands on the, on the federal budget. and when the rational rationality and the truth coming out of ts is, is questioned further in a way to even the financial times. question today. as jim said, we go back to australia, anthony, i mean the again, you know, one of the things i keep stressing ever since is complex, started that if people want to talk about negotiations and diplomacy, well, no. we had a whole lot of that before february 24th. okay. russia sent out it's the security demands to nato into the united states. very clearly stated what they want. there's not going to be any negotiations and diplomacy if those issues are not met. okay? because i think all of it's in agreement here,

the zalinski crowd doesn't care much about ukraine. russia is gone and protected its own co, no russian speakers. and then you know, the united states. well, that's just a casino for them. and a whole lot of corruption. i would say, you know, but russia is this going to say, look, we told you what we want and that those things haven't really changed or can the west, particularly washington and london come to grips with the fact that all russia has security interest as well. go ahead and australia will. busy there's a total difference in town coming out of moscow since the 24th of february and it really the difference in time started about a month ago. and now we've got a very, very hard headed roster indeed. looking, looking at the west, very coldly, keeping in touch with the west, there's good dialogue going on at the level of bands and the level of through shift

to his opposite member in watching. so those 2 dialogues are going on. c, i a and national security level dialogues and, but they're 2 different quality all together. i think roger is now basically laying down an to washington saying you've lost, it's going to get worse and less long. you go on supporting the lunatic and just cut your losses and get out as quickly as you can. and it's just a question of how quickly that message gets through in washington. that's why i don't know how quickly the flow in, but i have a feeling. it's going to end brought him more quickly the, when the pessimists think, james, i tend, i tend to agree with anthony. your thoughts, james? yes, just a footnote on what you asked peter regarding congress to the republicans, whether by fair means or foul did not as well in these elections. he had a thought they might, but even if they had, it really would have changed march, even though you might get

a few more trumpet populace who by can consider the wisdom of wars like this, the republican leadership. and i remember i worked that in, in that context for 17 years republican leadership is thoroughly controlled by a neoconservative outlook on the world. if anything, they're more critical of the democrats for not being supportive enough of ukraine and not being hostile enough to adopt to russia. they may grouse a little bit about, oh, this account for the spending where's all the money going and so forth. and even that just window dressing, so i don't expect my change in that order. the only way this is going to change from washington is and maybe the financial times indic. when was a little bit of an indication of that, that even some of the, the people have been proponents of us war for a very long time at some point get to the edge of a really severe conflict that would be a not capable of containment and they stand up with the edge, look down the best and say, oh boy, we better pull back from that. they haven't reached that point yet. i hope they will, if, as we expect there is, as you say, i think,

i think very strong russian offensive coming up with this winter. well, gilbert, how does, after all of the investment in the investment, in every sense of the term, how does the west them gracefully lose this one? ok, can they, or will they continue to up the ante? will they continue to escalate? because the way it's framed in the west is this is x is that we have to fight him over there before the if we fight over here. ok, which is completely idiotic. ok. but that's how it's framed. ok. how do you walk away from that gilbert? walk away? they will. i wouldn't worry about it. now the world didn't end with united states. and that's kinda what we see. no. on on television. is it constant repetition? the same mantra? ukraine is doing well when we all know it isn't doing well. and they will find a way to cover up the loss. the same road and discussion with

journalists, which the end of the pentagon said russia, ukraine, can possibly muster the force to send the russians out of its territory. he also opened that discussion with the remark that the russians can possibly take over all of ukraine or willingness war. so they will find a way to, to explain what happens as being after all the russians didn't when it was with you guys. i think, i think guilford's. absolutely. brian is saying, you know, well, they get somehow no matter what the outcome is, if there is regime change in care of whatever it still russia last is conflict. that's how they're going to do it. because essentially, that's all their message is, is a narrative and propaganda, anthony. yeah. if i could come in there, i think rush will, will help america find a soft landing. when america does decide that it's going to cut the losses and stuff supporting lensky in any serious way. the russia has

a lot of options. i mean, they not be cation and the militarization of ukraine. there are many, many ways to skin that cat. many, many ways, and it doesn't have to involve roger occupying the tribute right? it might involve some form of raising change, and it might simply involve the weakening of p s, for example, depriving of because the strip it was completely new to the crime potential. as the security threat director and future is a blush that hosting strip permanently and, and was left with her, you know, an agrarian, northwestern rough country. so, i mean, russia will help america find a soft landing. i think that was the james. i'm look, i'm really glad that anthony said that because the it would be in rush is national interest to do that actually. ok. i know every, the western media likes to keep everything is binary. you're not agreeing, james,

go ahead. i do not agree at all. okay. and, and i think that sort of thinking is very dangerous for the russians. that is one thing to walk away from afghanistan is one thing for the, for net to west nato, especially the non states, which is nato. to walk away from this because that means that the whole purpose of data russians out, americans in germans down, will be shown up to be a paper tiger. the emperor with no clothes at that point, the in global american empire that we've seen since the end of the 1st cold war is over. this is an existential struggle for washington, not for the american people, not for the united states as a normal state, but for this, this global empire that we've made, they basically major fortunes on in bed, all their forces on for decades. they cannot easily give this up. maybe this provocation was not the right one. maybe some people are starting to get some cold t here, but i would not count them out yet. and this is where i didn't get back to what my serbian friends are saying here. the russians for their sake,

from their point of view, if they want to be seduced about letting their enemies off easy, not humiliating them. i think that is very dangerous thinking for them from their point of view. in my opinion, if i were in their shoes, they had to press for a military victory. v a be aware of the dangers at the other side will pull up its dirty tricks like they did in syria, or in bosnia and other places. we're not out of the woods here yet by any means. that's right. and the, the, the victory would be in my mind, the end of nato. that would be a 1st good step generate. great, that's all time we have. i want to thank my guess in, in australia bell rate and in brussels. i don't think i would be worse for watching us here to see you next time. remember prospect rolls. ah ah

. until the teams helping with their vote annoying look, well thing a often see and fun gas prices with on gas with does not seem finished with the kids from the politic. they want to sing of this kind of identity even so socially form with it is good prescription, not to reason oscar. she'll know, shepherd god, if you don't pay

a lot in law do it. this will bust of bulk law issue. but for the model, when you annual g d p per capita is about $4000.00 euros. i'm calling in a mobile a wants to leave a man. i've got a near planet consti seal from corpus really in kid, near prison. for them all belong to come out, so you need your level of thought they would have thought of unemployment is off the charts, moldova territorial integrity and sovereignty. we respect

a country which enjoys financial support from the us and the youth is constantly ross by political and corruption scandals. oh, but old didn't scope mo, google obtaining you candidate status in 2022. ah, the ukrainian president's now says he's not sure who's responsible for a missile that came down in poland, killing to civilians. that was one day after he claimed it was fired by russia, calling for a western response. $11800000.00 is going to assistance, including for direct budget support. the question is, is ukraine now the 51st state of the united states of america? republicans pledge to counts every cent of financial aid allocated to keep the policy prepared to take control of the house of representatives. if youth africa,