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ah ah, ah hello and welcome the crosstalk where all things are considered, i'm futile about like the weather, any talk of a political solution to the ukraine conflict is in a very deep freeze. washington is against it. ukraine does what it's told, and the russian see no pressing need to talk to the west. but this does not mean ukraine is a frozen conflict far from it. economic pain is just starting to reach a boiling point. ah. discuss these issues any more. i'm joined by my guess, george semi while we in budapest, he's a pod cast or at the goggle, which can be found on youtube and locals. and here in moscow we have maxine who is

the director of the center for advanced american studies at moscow state institute of international relations. reginald cross that rules are the fact that means you can jump any time you want and i will appreciate it. when i start out with george in budapest, georgia, you and i actually follow quite closely the chance of germany, what we call sergeant schultz on this program. we have to say from time to time, it's actually quite interesting, if not to the point of bizarre. he said that peace in europe depends on revival of post cold war security agreements with russia. well, why didn't he think of was a year ago, december a year, almost exactly on what the december 17th. i just found it really remarkable that a major european leader would say such a thing because yeah, that's the problem. that's how we got here. george. yes, exactly. and it's very hard to see what exactly he means by the post cold war

security agreements with russia. because, or remember, the post school security agreement was nato expansion. and it began immediately to leave the solution. also back in the demise of the soviet union. i mean, they didn't even post for bread, and this happens despite repeated russian warnings, expressions of russia, and that was coming from boris yeltsin, the person that they love so much. so it's hard to know what he really is and then even mentions about, well, maybe we can discuss this all deployments in one deployment styles in. great, well, that's a completely pointless exercise because this was something that the united states talked about last december when the president putin presented is to security the one for united states one later and said to be a,

which was no for the later expansion across united states. and later rejected the idea of what the major expansion was. well, maybe we can talk about missed our deployments, but i already said there was a peripheral issues because you can just move, you'll miss i was in the, at the moment. so why do we need to so it's very hard to know what it was, you know, emmanuel, my crown echo this theme of shows as well the other day. well, we got to talk about that as in one, what are you planning on? and that is the same wrong then also. so the other day is, well, what we need to set up a special tribunal to put russian aggression on trial. so really these things are completely meaningless. shorts and macro have been largely meaningless during the 10 months. if i can get to your max of i can continue with also said, what is part of returning to the

post cold war security agreements. he also said this, which is again, really quite mystifying, given the events that we have. russia must make concessions acceptance quote, that there is no aggression coming from nato, unquote. i'm going to read it again. there is no aggression coming from nato. i mean, is this a serious person here? because the problem is nato. ok? it's not, you know, you don't wish it way to say like wave a magic wand say, but it's ok. it's not evil, it won't hurt you. ok, i mean again, this is a flight of fancy that coming from a major european leader in the middle of a conflict in europe is really quite mystifying and actually quite terrifying. go ahead. well, i think at some point in history back a few months ago, who responded to a similar close by saying it's, it's not the intention since the potentials that matter. you know,

and i know that i are serious, may have some problem with this. you know, they would say the tensions matter to how you read them. but i think it gives you a clear sense of the thinking on the russian side. you have to say, i also want to refer to one bigger to say that both. usually a problem in any conflict in any major military escalation is when parties have a divergence of positions. joe will have a gen, almost gap in the, in the reverse of interest. and the interest bottom line is that the, the west european, the us in particular, it would like to return to a point in history where they were at the peak of their might, which is the post war. busy were end of 98990 s when they were the ones you know, rupturing the world according to their needs and interests. and russia in wants to return to its own point of its might, which is the end of the world war 2. when you know they, the russia, u. s, and

u. k. dictated the rules of engagement for the rest of the world. unfortunately, or fortunately, i don't know, none of the either claims can be realised in today's world. i would say that and but, you know, that's, and i think russia in a way has given up on those expectations to been might be a grand deal. because clearly the us is not interested in any grade sheet at the moment was on their side and want to explore their, their, their victory, the seeing they're getting right now to the best and will be long talking about the interest come in, which is now here and a both parties extracting that the other one is going to practice sooner. ok, well i mean that should be the other side of the coin that i want to talk about is the, the and then the pain dial, but in georgia, which,

which is really fascinating, is that the cold, warren architecture that was created in europe after the 2nd world war, it worked ok. it kept the peace. all right. and so again, going back to the shelters, words, i mean, how could someone a series person say they say, well then what would change, what was the, what would change the post cold war order to get to where we are right now? he's my optic about it because as you said, a soon as the warsaw pact came to an end, there was massive expansion of nato. and we all have to be clear here is this was a security agreement that only excluded russia, but was against russia. and that's why the security order in europe has collapsed george. yes, that's exactly right then because your choice of words is very interesting because sergeant schultz said in the past that any future security arrangement of russia

must include a security arrangement in europe, must include russia and must not be directed against russia. and then of course, he said something completely different the next day. i mean at least a song realization of that fact. but if we go back to the historical analogies, then yes, during the cold war, the soviet union had enjoyed respect. and that is that the issue that has been lost and what russia wants to go back to that we are, we will respect that as a great power whose interest needed to be taken a council. you know, people didn't like communism. they didn't like the soviet union, none the less, you know, you didn't mess in the soviet union. you have to just you, except that he had interest and that you didn't across any red line. so we can disappear at the end of the cold war. and russia has repeatedly said, you know, we, we want to return to that. you show us the respect that is due to us as a great,

a refuse to russia, time and time again. i mean, you know, we talk about all of the various agreements from which the western withdrawn united states is growing like the entry, the i and i treat it all. it was just a reflection of the lack of respect the united states have garage and i think that what triggered you know, the launch of the civil special military operations i have to show you need to show respect for otherwise we're just not going to have any peace or security in europe, because ultimately we're not, we're not going to just tolerate you surrounding us with hostile states and just sort of boxing it as if we, you know, we're, we're, you know, we're kind of rubbish that you can just dominate. well, you know, it's interesting is that makes, if you go from across the shields even to biden, because, you know, we have a state visit to the united states and you get it from these people that they can

see that they still believe that they can unilaterally impose a security arrangement on europe without the participation of russia. isn't that kind of the, getting to the point where it is a fate complete that russia will always be deemed an enemy state because of a stake holder in an agreement, you know, and then what is their role? i mean, or, or because natal needs an enemy, it only for it to continue existed, must expand some rush is the likely target here. but my point is a lot less interested in security at the end of the day and rushes primary issue is security. go ahead, ma'am, right indeed, and i want to where you left off in saying that the very rationale behind the beginning of the special military operation. i know people have a lot of understandings are not entirely clear what exactly you know,

being asked if the patient in transitioning with to put it in very kind of terms. russia, the what it did to produce favorable security outcomes for itself and it's near rod when and then the security outcomes in the last few years. we're not cheap enough in russia's favor, so whatever to love, whatever sholtes were, micron have to say about whether, how it russia should be engaged. there's got to be this idea in mind that the, the security outcomes for russia should be engaged in their st calculation. and thinking, and here i think a lot of people in moscow have all are including in foreign policy domain and then for policy making circles are very skeptical about how serious and independent of policy makers, micron shows are at the end of the day. so whatever they're saying may be just the signal that they're chown channeling in coordination with united states. so you

know, they have the okay from us to, to test to the grounds and see how russia will respond to the other. you mentioned it before, we go to the break here. i mean it's in that there is a, a disparity here going on here. and then there seems me that the, under the guidance of washington, there's quite uniform security the definition of security for the west year. but they, it just opposed to that. i mean, the more they get tight security wise more they follow how far out economically and that is, that is a attention that is really, really good. can you just address that for 30 seconds? i think it's, it's a very unfortunate that geopolitics kills economy all over the world. is day. sadness in recruiting conflict. this is a very certain token of it. yeah. in, in. well, what you can, both of them can continue on the same trajectory, or there's going to be some kind of tension,

some kind of break. there are gentlemen, i'm going to jump in here. we're going to go to a short break. and after that short break, we'll continue our discussion on some real estate. ah, when i was a kid and engagement equals the trail. when so many find themselves will support. we choose to look for common ground. oh, is your media a reflection of reality?

in the world transformed what will make you feel safe? isolation for community. are you going the right way or are you being led somewhere? direct. what is true? what is faith? in the world corrupted, you need to descend a join us in the depths or remain in the shallows. ah

ah well the magic crossed out were all things considered on peter? well, this is the home addition to remind you were discussing some real news. ah. a to georgia, we to pass your church, which one of the interesting things of the conflict and ukraine is presented to the world. and i think it was, it had already started, but ukraine is a pivot point. is it? it goes across a administrations in the united states. we've talked a lot about trump in his trade policies, but now when we look at them with buying with inflation reduction, which has nothing to do with inflation. but basically giving preferences to

american companies, particularly in the green sector, which was, oh, that was supposed to be your job. ok, when of course, the leader in the world is china. what we have now is that the u. s. is turning us back on 3040 years of globalization and wanting to have its own globalization. because now they will have multiple globalization that are b a just opposed and opposed to each other, an american one with the other europeans, as their underlings to be able to exploit. and then of course, we have the east, we have china, and it's, it's growing globalization here. and that doesn't bode well for security, george. and it's actually very amusing to listen to the european complaints as in the united states and ever in the past can very much about the european economy and

your economic security. well, of course, the american government is going to take up as their priority, who will be american companies and europe companies are going to fail in getting them market share in the united states. so be it the that how the united states has always run it's economy. i mean it's, it's always been a protectionist power. the real question, why hasn't europe done anything to protect its interest? is why i mean, the whole resume, dasher of the european union have been all to be able to build up the cutting edge industries that would challenge the united states. i mean, it's the same for years and then you look around, is it well in what area it is, you're a producing cutting edge industry, starting computers, not in software,

not in the internet, not in social media. so you know, not even in biotech. so what exactly you know is, is you're waiting for. so micron goes to the united states warning, well, you know, maybe we're going to do some subsidize in the future. we haven't done it in the past, and then buying a few little tweaks to the inflation reduction act. and it comes back and says, victory is ours. we want, we achieve everything we can. so again, again, all the talk about chapter presenting some to look you can only challenge to the united states and to china. it mass, you know, the, the, the, to this point, i mean the, me in the americans have done really quite well. i mean, the, the economy of pain that has been as a result of western sanctions on russia, the brunch of it has been felt by the europeans. ok. and then this inflation

reduction. i that, that's almost like insult to injury. not only do the europeans have to pick up the, the pain tab if i can put it that way. now going to pick up the economic one. and i think you know, the media to underestimate what, what's happening in europe. they talk about getting to this winter, how about getting through the next 5? because that's what's really in the cards right now. and europe, economic roundness, productivity will only continue to decline. so i don't see it in the longer term. i don't see what the price of europe for the america it is when it's interpretation of globalization, it's going to become a place to become poor and poor, and then that it's still the same time i have to pay for their security. i mean, it seems like a mixture of all worst possible outcomes. go ahead, max. well, in the them, in also, in this sense, you get your, that is likely to be a lot more dependent on the united states in terms of you eliminate your present

any independent or either a european union as a whole or individual european states. that would be totally no subjugated to us national security interest. and one policy concerns in this kind of global struggle against china. you know, to shut down the european market for the chinese you know, goods and technology and all of that. and i guess that's the idea kind of behind to trying to break the european. so the royalty and kind of ukraine conflict is a common denominator for global interests. one perhaps, could argue and say, you know, the elite, running european countries are more, you know, oriented to it's kind of global and global interests. and less concerned about the national priorities. a political price to pay for that. eventually you can do

that in definitely jump in there, georgia because i agree with math. i mean they're, they're ideologically captured. but idea how g in politics. they don't, they're not always good bedfellows. go ahead. no, that's right. and this has been the european problems. since the end of the cold war, it had a chance in 1990 the sanctions. a cold war is over. now we have to pursue our own interests. you know, we can just, you know, go on, you know, the, you know, the, that frame, this is so really invasion. we need the protection of the united states. you know, that's it, the whole issue of the soviet union. so really racial gone. and that was the moment, really the europe to think in terms of it's own destiny. and obviously it's destiny . lay with some sort of an economic partnership with russia. i mean, i was, it was obvious that that was where everything was differently cheap energy keep

going, keep energy. and this is something the united states was absolutely determined to stop what we, what we knew all this when you and like i said it openly when both of it said, when i'm going to allow any power to dominate any continent in the world, you know, it's always going to be the united states that will prevail in europe and asia or the united states and united states and continue to insist not only on the maintenance of later, but the expansion of an expansion of nato. that meant essentially moving the dividing line in the cold war, a 1000 miles east of a partnership with russia. you're actually intensified the conflict with russia. i mean, it is a lot more in time, so it was of the cold war. i mean, it didn't get anything like this, you're walk. and so united states is prevailed because the united states succeeded

in breaking up any possible future partnership between europe and russia. and now europe is seen a very weak position and unable to challenge the united states as any serious economic. i am unable to challenge china. think of any kind of economic rival you know, makes it's, it's really interesting. if you look at western media, mainstream media, there's always, and it's something i'm a child of the cold or something i was brought up. i'm sure george will say the same thing. it the how you manage the russian thread, either it's soviet or it's today who's russia, russian student, all of the, all the knobs. but if the, if you, if you look at, in a more sober way, the biggest threat to europe is the connected state. it's not russia there, and right now the connections between europe and russia are very, very limited and said to get even fewer links. ok. so really the, the, the,

what's impacting europe is american policy. american dicked out because because the, the, the, the, the contact russia has with europe now is the least, it's been in my lifetime. and i think probably a lot longer than that. go ahead. well, the united states has spent a lot of time and effort on grooming its presence in europe in western europe after the world war 2 of in eastern europe after the call of the berlin wall in the break up of the soviet union. and the processor needs the trans atlantic community. so to see that is incredibly, regardless of who's in power, who's in office. he's out here. they were, he entered towards a greater alliance with the united states. so it's not easy, of course, to move out even not even the west presence, but the very thinking that the u. s. is ultimately the force of russia is the force of evil. and you know, occasionally, i mean, it's pretty clear, i guess the pattern line. you know, kind of a roller coaster and now we see the russia threat kind of dominating the,

the narrative. i wonder what the, you know, there might be some intellectual or it's not existential crisis in terms of thinking of what to do with russia when and where stuff's running the country now. now they have this beautiful bottom until the form of credit. and then perhaps the talks about, you know, hopes for russia being liberal, then they will run against the harsh reality. a lot of things that russia's been doing is not just proven. it's worn policy. well, i don't know if the content or, or but, but there is indeed a lot of things that are in russia strategic talks for historically. and yeah, i mean, is that you bring up a very good point george. i mean, i always on the, to the point of humorous, if it weren't so dangerous, is that all,

everything is personified. it's, you know, it's yelton, you know, you personify and then, then it's put in, you know, it has rushes national interest. it doesn't really change very much. ok. the only grade leader or? well no leader that ever betrayed rushes. national interest was me help. got a bunch. all all the rest. it is been continuity. george go ahead. yeah, of course, the biggest going to you it is that yes, the west celebrates on a regular basis, some new leader. and then it becomes disenchanted with the new leader because the new leader insist on pursuing national interest. i mean, we're going to go back to the 19th, it is a popular figure out for a while and then he became reviled figured by the early 900. 60. is this terrifying monster banning issue on the table and shaking with western leaders? well, yeah, i mean, you know,

if you were trying to somehow you deploy a, you to spice light. so the soviet union, you know, you're going to get a leader who's going to be angry and was also a time when it will celebrate that, you know, used to travel around the west. you visit the prophet, texas. no, you know, yet t with the queen, you know, was a popular figure. but again, when was put in stop the existing on russian national interest suddenly became a revival figure. i'm a middle aged madrid. it was also all right, now we've got rid of a so i think this is personification of politics, which is absolutely did and, and has nothing to do with security. i want to thank my guests in moscow and in budapest, and thanks to our bureau for watching us, he already see you next time remember ah

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a when you sit down with ah, the headlines on all the international 10 civilians are killed in 24 more wounded of the key of supposed to show a city in russia with republic. local officials say us apply dot hilary system with the french president schools on nato to provide security guarantees to russia in order to solve for ukraine conflicts, which is exactly what moscow wanted from the west. the head of the military operation. the chairman of persons ruling conservative party has been accused of in