the me hello, i'm manila chan you are tuned into modus operandi the show that explores the methods and patterns of foreign policy all around the world and the history that reverberates in our lives today. it has been a long, contentious relationship for turf here, torn between east and west, sitting at the crossroads of central asia and europe. turkey has recently re branded and holds the key to the accession of sweden and finland into nato. now this once peripheral player in global affairs has stepped into the limelight. this week we'll explore turkey and their new role taking center stage as the new mediator of peace and hub for vital grain shipments around the world. as the war, new crane continues, cent, turkeys, history and conflict with neighbors. can the country overcome some of its past

mistakes and move forward toward a new image? we'll discuss it. all right. let's get into the m o. me. alright. you say turkey are, the one says, no matter which way you slice it, the turks are in a precarious situation. they share borders with a different nations, some of whom they have less than friendly relations. but they are the gateway to europe in one direction. and the portal to asia in the other, in recent weeks, turkish president rachel early one has taken center stage as a key negotiator and the ongoing conflict in ukraine. intervening in a looming global food crisis. or the one able to moderate trade agreements for great shipments to leave ukraine ports and make their way to several countries

feared shortages this winter. going on. the 1st ship loaded web grains has departed from the diesel port. all ukraine still. and once at this ship arrives and they stumble, phosphorus, representatives of russia, ukraine, a turkey, and the un, well do all the necessary checks and control and start departing at for the, for her next destination. now his good relations with russian president vladimir putin continues to make turkey's western allies nervous, especially those in the nato block. his country has served as the holding grounds for numerous refugees from the middle east for years fleeing the us led war in iraq . people displaced by the 20 year us war or occupation of afghanistan, the civil war in syria, and others just hoping to make their way to europe by way of turkey or now or on,

sometimes prickly relations with neighboring countries, such as grief weaponized, the refugee crisis, threatening to open the floodgates of refugees over issues of cypress and topics, he's at loggerheads with with other world leaders. now president earth one has stated that quote, it is grief that is condemning refugees to death by skewering their boats. and that he has no idea how grief would handle migrants if turkey did open its doors. but for the e used part long dangling the carrot of joining the economic block for decades, but never moving forward in a meaningful way. doesn't engender much trust from the turks either. but now rachel berta. one holds the keys to whether or not sweden and finland can join nato. the block requires unanimous approval for accession how the turks asking sweden to extradite several people on their most wanted list and unhappy with the united

states over the development of the f. 35 fighter jet deal that fell apart after turkey purchased russian s 400 missile defense systems. certainly a lot of moving parts coming out of turkey these days. for more on the latest out, a turkey will bring in seen on organ. he's a founding partner of eastern economics, a consulting firm that specializes in public and regulatory affairs, and as the chairman of the center for economics and foreign policy studies, he was also a member of the turkish permanent delegation to the european union and also served at the turkish embassy in tripoli now and president putin. an early one recently met in sochi after there was an agreement that 5 turkish banks would adopt russia's mere payment system. how significant a move is this for these 2 parties is turkey essentially saying it is done with

western sanctions on russia and ready to pursue its own economic policy in the black sea region? yes, indeed. church president adam and a number of agreements when they met last week. one of them was a, for the russian credit card clearing near, to also be used in turkey by about 5 turkish facts. the reason for this is that russia is the number one country in terms of sending forest there about 5.56 meters that come from russia in turkey. and this is before the war. and in that sense, it's the number one country. so there was

a leading this on both sides also from the churches because the sort of, even though they make their initial payments for operators when they are on the, they want to use their credit cards. and of course, with these that are not anymore racially russia, they rely on the new system. and that's the reason why i now eat a turkish facts are starting to offer the services as well. so did these russian tourists can spend money while they are in turkey. now with turkish government does not see this as a violation of sheets and has not formally criticized or put under any sort of oppression or investigation on account of the decision to offset in your system. it is much

more on that side that the turkeys, not particular transaction, or with one of the russian oligarchs end up with a sizable song all their, their wealth, the transfer can turkey. this is not something that once in the church of the white ocean, another reason why this is not the sanctions 100. so she says that from the western perspective, us and european perspective, many of the companies, western companies that cease to work in russia with trey perspective, arguing that management petition risk, they're not doing that to comply with the letter of the sanction per se. but they are going beyond that, and they perceive to be

a reputation risk. so the fact that they not doing that, so this is anymore, russia means that there's 4 other players in this case, companies want to take advantage of that. and if they do again, this is not, this does not mean that they are in violation of the sanctions. it just means that they are replacing that some of the western companies that don't want any more to business, right. reputation. now it's been reported that presidents are to one and a thought may sit down and discuss their differences inferior at peace talks. being brokered by russia. could we see a full settlement in syria in the next few years? and how might the west try to resist this? i mean, what, what needs to be on the table and dealt with both from the turkish side as well as the syrian side. i mean, as, as russia really, in

a strong position tend to lead these talks. and see a settlement actually go through. well, i think the prospect that aren't along and a 50 and directly engage talks about the future on syria are still a pretty small there over the years, as is the beginning of the crisis in august 2011. and there has really been a lot of african church assigned to carry out the machine change at work. he helps with the a civilian and he will be a trip was a shooter issue. so there is now a very significant emotion off trust, both with neutral trust. and i don't think that this is going to be a bridge in the time. so there are folks between turkish and stream of fishes,

but these are at lower levels. so the prospect of 2 liters coming together, it is still pretty distance in my mind. denise. russia is indeed an insignificant player, given that the test, the degree of leverage over the hospice. so rush army indeed wants a treaty to happen. however, this is me and east sounds, a bit unrealistic. and also because the, the terms of a political settlement in syria and have not been defined clearly there are many outstanding issues. i will leave that right there. thing are all gone, founding partner of istanbul, economics, and chairman for the center for economics and foreign policy studies. thank you so much for being with us today. and coming up next, we'll take

a look back at some of turkey has history, some of which saw the united states label even genocidal. can a modern turkey overcome its dark past? that is coming up next on the ammo. don't go anywhere. will be right back. mm. for a man in

a my mom in my name with a new i love it to. what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have. it's crazy. even foundation, let it be an arms race group is on often very dramatic development only personally and getting to resist. i don't see how that strategy will be successfully, very difficult time. time to sit down and talk. the

news here is host to the most refugees in the world. some nearly 4000000 refugees, primarily from syria, then other minis, nations like iraq, afghanistan, and many others. now the turks bore the brunt of those displaced by the violence of war across the middle east, over the last 20 years. with so many people who qualify for asylum in the country, resources have been stretched to thin after so long. however, thousands of these asylum seekers sought to transit through turkey into greece, who by and large, have rejected nearly 70 percent of refugee applicants. now in 2016 turkey and greece serving as the proxy for the rest of the you signed an agreement that would return asylum seekers who were denied entry to the you to be returned to turkey,

labeling, tortilla, a safe 3rd party. give my keys that i just don't, you can designation of turkey as a safe 3rd country is an important step in tackling illegal migration flows and the criminal activity of smuggling. you network political symphony middle, the joint ministerial decision as a derivative of the cooperation between ministry of foreign affairs and ministry of migration and asylum is fully in line with international law and enhances greece's legal arsenal against requests by citizens from countries such as syria, afghanistan, pakistan, bangladesh in somalia, countries that have no reason whatsoever to consider turkey a non safe country. don't, don't laugh, looking, don't get these yellow support level. now, all garage signed the deal in good faith, only defined that greece would later impose a national policy in 2021. that designated asylum seekers from afghanistan,

bangladesh, pocket on. so malia and syria as effectively automatic, declined for asylum in greece, thereby no way of entry into the, you know, those people would be returned to turkey and cases would only be reviewed on a case by case scenario. if they can prove that turkey was not a safe host for them. now, this rule accounted for roughly 60 percent of asylum seekers hoping to get into the e u. so in response, in 2022 to kia, began refusing these refugee returns from greece. any legal status leaving thousands of people in legal limbo. so without refugee status from ankara or the e u. these people have no government assistance for housing, food basic needs, and can't legally work either. meanwhile, as the ukraine conflict erupted, the

e u took in 3000000 ukranian refugees in a lightning fast coordinated effort. this contrasted with the turkey are you refugee deal has not sat well with are the one all right. joining us for more on turkey as a sanctuary. country for refugees is dr. ill turn turan president of the international political science association and ameritas professor of political science in the department of international relations at eastern will build a university. he is also the author of books and articles in english and in turkish on comparative politics, turkish politics, turkish foreign policy, a whole host of things. professor, thank you so much for joining us now. dr. turan since you see 1st hand refugees coming into your country, turkey or it is indeed

a host to so many refugees primarily syrians, but a lot of others as well. how long can your country sustain supporting this amount of people? i mean, will the syrians ever be able to return home, or is it, do you think it's more likely that they'll end up staying so long in turkey, that they no longer want to return to their home? or this is an interesting question about which there is a lot of debate in turkey these days. we have a number of immigrants, some of them coming in from afghanistan or pakistan. there are other movements from africa into turkey in the hope of then reaching europe. and then there is a very large contingent of syrian refugees. now, we may classify these refugees into different groups. i think as i tried to indicate some of them, i in fact inter key with the hope of crossing into europe and they

try a number of questionable means to get across the turkish border. some of them take boats to the cost of the greek islands. some have even taken larger boats in the hope of reaching italy, then some are trying to cross into greece through the land border crossing a river that constitutes the bar. so, we have a group that is temporarily in turkey, its own. the goal is to be able to get across, but then particularly a large number of syrian refugees have in fact settled in turkey and low. technically speaking, their intention is to go back home as their stay gets longer. and there is a question as to whether they shall be able to return and whether they will want to return because you know, their children are going to use some of the children. they acquire grades,

their proficiency in turkey, spend, they have in their big, etc. but the issue welcome to the syrian refugees began to log off. and you know, increasingly this is becoming a campaign issue in politics where the opposition is promising to send the syrians back, please. only the current government initially not responding to these pressures, is now trying to respond as well with its own programs, where they are trying to build cities or villages in syria. it's in the hope or sending some of these people back to syria. but you know, if my are to make a realistic res, i think we'll have several things at the same time. if the re, some sort of immodest mandy with the syrian regime some soon, yes,

we'll go back. sound will be sent to other countries, but a good many will prefer to stay in turkey. and so this is going to constitute a problem no matter how you look at it. but certain the, the amount of investment turkey has had to put into taking care of the image is getting more and more. it's a large sum. and there are complaints that the son should be spent on turkey citizens rather than immigrants. and also, there are incidents where large communities in events live together and have problem ethical relationships with the neighborhood. it's a problem. they're going to stay with us for a long time. do you think warmer ties between russia and turkey following the fall out from the fighting in crane? could see a stabilization of the situation in theory,

perhaps falling between the assad government and or the one government? i mean, could we see the refugees return? perhaps in this particular circumstance, work, i think the war in ukraine and russia repeating the korean and russia is something different than the russian presidents in syria. the russian government has been deeply committed to keeping michelle as a side in power. and they are in a contentious relationship with turkey in terms of what turkey should do to ensure its own security, particularly along the more. but if turkey were to change its policy towards syria, and if syria were also, it's just it's policies or turkey immodest ravendie as possible. but this moment,

this re land, it would include maybe repatriation of some syrians in syria. but as i tried to indicate in my earlier response, there are in number of syrians, it will not want to go back for 2 reasons. some of them may be political, they may see that because of what they had done earlier, they will be held responsible by the office regime. but then there are others for whom, you know, making yet another economic adjustment in their life. so they have come to turkey has positive businesses, or they simply seem to painful. and this is further complicated by the fact that the turkish government has granted citizenship to a number of seats. so syrian problem is independent of turkish russian relations and turkish ukrainian relations. now, inevitably,

with russia hands full in ukraine, they may have fewer resources to devote to syria, but they are providing air control for sir. yes. and the advising this to you in forces and turkish forces in terms of sort of acquiring territory for ensuring the security of turkey. acquiring territory would lead turkey into a conflict with russia, which neither turkey no rush. i walk. so this will all have to be inducted to negotiations. now turkey is an enigma. in many ways. turkey is both a member of nato, but it seems to still charged its own path in foreign policy when it comes to russia, especially as well as about the greater middle east as we move into the future. and what many believe will be a multi polar world order?

could we see turkey are continue going its own way even to the point of, i don't know, maybe even leaving nato some day down the road. i think when we look at the world, let the seas that the my polar world has come to an end and nothing has replaced it. but the russian intervention in grain essentially provided the background for a return of the united states to europe and the z u. a nation often a with the addition of in fact, also new members, surprisingly sweden and finland, which are likely to become members sometime soon. so now turkey is located in geography where it has to balance various foreign policy interests and various threats or security

considerations. therefore, i do not anticipate that taking you will were to get out of nate. but what we have seen in general is a tendency among natal members to pursue more in dependent policies in comparison to earlier times when the cold war was progressing in full steam. because from the cold war was progressing in full steam. the concern was that there would be a major russian on slot, which the europeans would not be able to meet their own resources. so american commitments, particularly, but it's nuclear weapons to european defense was mandatory. now the price for that was to accept american leadership and essentially conform to american expectations of foreign policy. national foreign policy,

the situation is somewhat modified now. and i think many nathan members in addition to having the nato commitments to pursue independence policies in other parts of the world. therefore, i think it would not be sir, rising for turkey and other nato members to act more autonomy as the rise of domains. but at the same time, keep their commitment to nato with the original purpose of resisting russian encroachments into europe. doctor hilter turan thank you so much for taking time out of your day to be with us today. all right, that is going to do it for this weeks episode of modus operandi the show that dig deep into foreign policy. i'm your host manila. chad. thank you for tuning in. we'll see you again next week to figure out the ammo. the

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