weird, the probably just sitting back to staring saying well, and we're growth. as we click and facebook inch selfie ourselves, we're close. we're caught this rhapsodic hallucination called social media. people don't know what's going on until it's too late. legal and media analysts lied old no true or was always good to see you will see you soon. thank you, sir. and thanks for joining us here for this program from moscow on this monday evening. it's just about a half 7 right now and with so great, we'll have your company. many more stories still to come. we return at the top of the what is the possibility of a negotiated end to the conflict in the crate? there are some indications. nato has shifted its position from total victory on the battlefield. could the need of negotiations at this point,

this was loaded clear. the biggest barrier of course is lack of trust. ah, in the lease is hunter russian state patrol never. i've stayed on the most landscape with all sunset for a week within the 55 with this big. okay, so mine is 2000 speedy. one else was about with we will ban in the european union, the kremlin media machine, the state on russia today. and school ortiz spoke mckibbin, our video agency, roughly all brands on youtube said with a question. did you think it would close with?

ah, hello, i'm manila chan. you are tuned in to modus operandi the show that explores the methods and patterns of foreign policy all around the world and the history that reverberates in our lives. today. it has been a long, contentious relationship for turkey, a torn between east and west, sitting at the crossroads of central asia and europe. turkey has recently re branded and holds the key to the accession of sweden and finland into nato. now this, once peripheral player in global affairs has stepped into the limelight. this week we'll explore term here. and there new role taking center stage as the new mediator

of peace and hub for vital grain shipments around the world. as the warn you pre and continue turkey's history and conflict with neighbors, can the country overcome some of its past mistakes and move forward toward a new image? we'll discuss it. all right. let's get into the m o me . alright. you say turkey or the one says turkey, no matter which way you slice it, the turks are in a precarious situation. they share borders with 8 different nations, some of whom they have less than friendly relations. but they are the gateway to europe in one direction. and the portal to asia in the other, in recent weeks, turkish president rachel earth, one has taken center stage as a key negotiator and the ongoing conflict in ukraine. intervening in

a looming global food crisis. or one able to moderate trade agreements for great shipments to leave ukraine ports, and make their way to several countries who feared shortages this winter. on the 1st a chevy. loaded where the grains has departed from the o. d, support all the ukraine. and once at this ship arrives and a number phosphorus representatives of russia, ukraine, turkey, and the un, well do all the necessary checks and controls as well start departing at for the, for her next destination. now his good relations with russian president vladimir putin continues to make turkey's western allies nervous, especially those in the nato block. his country has served as the holding grounds for numerous refugees from the middle east. for years fleeing the us led war in

iraq. people displaced by the 20 year us war or occupation of afghanistan, the civil war in syria, and others just hoping to make their way to europe by weight of turkey are now or on. sometimes prickly relations with neighboring countries, such as grief weaponized, the refugee crisis, threatening to open the floodgates of refugees over issues of cyprus and topics. he's at loggerheads with with other world leaders. now president earth one has stated that, quote, it is grief that is condemning refugees to death by skewering their boats. and that he has no idea how grief would handle migrants if turkey did open its doors. but for the e used part long dangling the carrot of joining the economic block for decades, but never moving forward in a meaningful way. doesn't engender much trust from the turks either. but now rachel

or the one holds the keys to whether or not sweden and finland can join nato. the block requires unanimous approval for accession how the turks asking sweden to extradite several people on their most wanted list and unhappy with the united states over the development of the f. 35 fighter jet deal that fell apart after turkey purchased russian s 400 missile defense systems. certainly a lot of moving parts coming out of turkey these days. for more on the latest out, a turkey will bring in seen on organ. he's a founding partner of eastern economics, a consulting firm that specializes in public and regulatory affairs, and as the chairman of the center for economics and foreign policy studies, he was also a member of the cache permanent delegation to the european union and also served at the turkish embassy in tripoli, now and presidents put in an ottawa, i recently met in sochi after there was an agreement that 5 turkish banks would

adopt russia's mere payment system. how significant a move is this for these 2 parties is turkey essentially saying it is done with western sanctions on russia and ready to pursue its own economic policy in the black sea region? yes, indeed, church president are gone and the from you have a number of agreements when they met last week. one of them was a, for the russian credit card clearing near to also using turkey by about 5 turkish facts. the reason for this is that russia is the number one country in terms of sending. forrest jerky they're about 5.56 meters

that come from russia to turkey before the war. and in that sense, it's the number one country. so there was a leading this on both sides also from the church to sign goes the sooner if, even though they make their initial payments to for operators when they are on turkey. he, they want to use their credit cards. and of course, these that are not anymore richie russia, they rely on the new system. and that's the reason why i don't know either turkish facts are starting to for the services as well. and so did these russian tourists can spend money while they are for now the church only does not see this as a violation of sheets and has not fall in, criticize or put under any sort of oppression or investigation on

account of the decision to offset that your system is much more critical on that side that he's not particular transaction with one of the russian oligarchs, and up with some of their their well being transferred to church. this is not something that once and the church government have been quite another reason why this is not sanctions under, under the sanctions. is that from the western perspective, us and european perspective, many of the companies, western companies that cease to work in russia with trade perspective on that management petition risk. they're not doing that to

comply with the letter of the sanction per se. but they are going beyond that and they perceive to be a repetition risk that they want to match. so the fact that they're not doing that sort of business anymore, russia means that there's a vacuum for other players. in this case, companies can take advantage of that. and if they do again, this is not, this does not mean that they are in violation of the sanctions. just mean that they are replacing that some of the western companies that don't want any more business, right. reputation now it's been reported that presidents are the one and i thought may sit down and discuss their differences in syria at peace talks. being brokered by russia. could we see a full settlement in syria in the next few years?

and how might the west try to resist this? i mean, what, what needs to be on the table and, and dealt with both from the turkish side as well as the syrians. i mean, is, is russia really in a strong position to lead these talks and see a settlement actually go through watching the process along with ccc and direct the gauge of oxy through syria are still pretty small day over the years. this is the beginning of the crisis in august 2011. there has really been a lot of african church assigned to carry out machine change a turkey out with a trip was a sheet or issue. so there is no very significant erosion

off trust office neutral trust. and i don't think that this is going to be bridge any time soon. there are talks between turkish and serial fishes, but these are at lower levels. so the prospect of truly there's coming together is still pretty distance in my mind. russia is indeed insignificant player, given that the test, the degree of leverage over the us. so russia indeed wants it to happen. however, this is mia east. it's also a bit unrealistic. also because the, the terms of a political settlement in syria and have not been defined clearly there are many outstanding issues. i will leave that right there in on august founding partner of

istanbul, economics, and chairman for the center for economics and foreign policy studies. thank you. so much for being with us today and coming up next, we'll take a look back at some of turkey us history, some of which saw the united states label, even genocidal. can a modern turkey or overcome its dark past? that is coming up next on the ammo. don't go anywhere. will be right back. mm ah. ah .

i'm willing to do no cranium, tv, audio anemia idea. she ship a doctor, lean that ship for a control input you are bought. so she'll be at the mobile door by like, the system will only be near them if not, sing the anthem, missy leah with a chance. actually, jim's out arkell room. there's a lot of date my subway, but just a one

. they each the one that or up with a. busy brought the enough room for a few quick to take a picture of i'll go double play with the news here is host to the most refugees in the world. some nearly 4000000 refugees primarily from syria. then other many nations like iraq, afghanistan, and many others. now the turks bore the brunt of those displaced by the violence of war across the middle east, over the last 20 years. with so many people who qualify for asylum in the country,

resources have been stretched thin. after so long. however, thousands of these asylum seekers sought to transit through turkey into greece who by and large, have rejected nearly 70 percent of refugee applicants. now in 2016 turkey and greece serving as the proxy for the rest of the e. you signed an agreement that would return asylum seekers who were denied entry to the you to be returned to turkey, labeling, turkey or a safe 3rd party. get to thinking about the kids that i just don't. you can designation of turkey as a safe 3rd country is an important step in tackling illegal migration flows and the criminal activity of smuggling network seen up a little symphony with the joint ministerial decision as a derivative of the cooperation between ministry of foreign affairs and ministry of migration and asylum is fully in line with international law and enhances greece is

legal arsenal, against requests by citizens from countries such as syria, afghanistan, pakistan, bangladesh, and somalia. countries that have no reason whatsoever to consider turkey a non safe country. don't lots of you don't get these yet lives a personal level. now, all garage signed the deal in good faith only defined that greece would later impose a national policy in 2021. that designated asylum seekers from afghanistan, bangladesh, pocket on. so malia and syria as effectively automatic decline for asylum in greece, thereby no way of entry into the, you know, those people would be returned to turkey and cases would only be reviewed on a case by case scenario. if they can prove that turkey was not a safe host for them. now, this rule accounted for roughly 60 percent of asylum seekers hoping to get into the

e u. so in response in 2022, turkey began refusing these refugee returns from greece. any legal status leaving thousands of people in legal limbo. so without refugee status from ankara or the e u. these people have no government assistance for housing, food basic needs, and can't legally work either. meanwhile, as the ukraine conflict erupted, the e you took in 3000000 ukranian refugees in a lightning fast coordinated effort. this contrasted with the turkey or e u refugee deal has not sat well with earned the one. all right, joining us for more on turkey as a sanctuary. country for refugees is dr. ill turn turan president of the

international political science association and ameritas professor of political science in the department of international relations at eastern will build a university. he is also the author of books and articles in english and in turkish on comparative politics, turkish politics, turkish foreign policy, a whole host of things. professor, thank you so much for joining us now. dr. turan since you see 1st hand refugees coming into your country, turkey or it is indeed a host to so many refugees primarily syrians, but a lot of others as well. how long can your country sustain supporting this amount of people? i mean, will the syrians ever be able to return home, or is it, do you think it's more likely that they'll end up staying so long in turkey, that they no longer want to return to their home? or this is an interesting question about which there is

a lot of debate in turkey these days. we have a number of immigrants, some of them coming in from afghanistan or pakistan. there are other movements from africa into turkey in the hope of then reaching europe. and then there is a very large contingent of syrian refugees. now, we may classify these refugees into different groups. i think as i tried to indicate some of them, i in fact inter key with the hope of crossing into europe and they try a number of questionable means to get across the turkish border. some of them take boats to the cost of the greek islands. some have even taken larger notes in the hope of reaching italy. then some are trying to cross into reese through the land border crossing a river that constitutes the bar. so, we have a group that is temporarily in turkey,

its own. the goal is to be able to get across, but then particularly a large number of syrian refugees have in fact settled in turkey and low. technically speaking, their intention is to go back home as their stay gets longer. and there is a question as to whether they shall be able to return and whether they will want to return because you know, their children are going out to you. some of the children they acquire grades or proficiency in turkey spend, they have in arabic, etc. but the issue welcome to the syrian refugees began to launch off. and increasingly this is becoming a campaign issue in politics where the opposition is promising to send the syrians back peacefully. the current government initially not responding to these pressures,

is now trying to respond as well with its own programs, where they are trying to build cities or villages in syria. it's in the core or sending some of these people back to syria. but you know, if my mer to make a realistic res, i think we'll have several things at the same time. if the re, some sort of immodest will then the, with the syrian regime, some serious will go back. sound will be sent to other countries, but a good many will prefer to stay in turkey. and so this is going to constitute a problem no matter how you look at it. but certain the, the amount of investment turkey has had to put into taking care of the image is getting more and more. it's a large sum. and there are complaints that these sons should be spent on turkey

citizens rather than immigrants. and also, there are incidents where large communities are in the this together and her magical relationships with the neighborhood. it's a problem. there's going to stay with us for a long time. do you think a warmer ties between russia and turkey following the fall out from the fighting in crane? could see a stabilization of the situation in theory, a perhaps thawing, you know, between the assad government and the earth. one government, i mean, could we see the refugees return, perhaps in this particular circumstance, where i think the war in the ukraine, b and russia within korean. and russia is something different than the russian presence in syria. the russian government has been deeply committed to

keeping michelle as a side in power. and they are in a contentious relationship with turkey in terms of what turkey should do to ensure it's on security, particularly along the board. but if turkey were to change his policy towards sooner, yeah. and if syria were also, it's just it's policies or turnkey, immodest ravendie as possible. but this moment mr. randy would include maybe repatriation of some syrians in syria. but as i tried to indicate in my earlier response, there are a number of simians, it will not want to go back for 2 reasons. some of them may be political, they may see that because of what they had done earlier, they will be held responsible by the office regime. but then there are others for

whom, you know, making yet another economic adjustment in their life. so they have come to turkey business, or they simply seem too painful. and this is further complicated by the fact that the turkish government has granted citizenship to a number of cities. so syrian problem is independent of turkish russian relations and turkish ukrainian relations. now, inevitably, if the russians hands full in ukraine, they may have fewer resources to devote to syria, but they are providing air control for sir. yes. and the advising the city and forces and turkish forces in terms of sort of acquiring territory for ensuring the security of turkey. acquiring territory would lead turkey

into a conflict with russia, which neither turnikey russia watch. so this will all have to be conducted through negotiations. now turkey is an enigma, in many ways. turkey is both a member of nato, but it seems to still charge its own path in foreign policy when it comes to russia, especially as well as about the greater middle east as we move into the future. and what many believe will be a multi polar world order? could we see turkey are continue going its own way even to the point of, i don't know, maybe even leaving nato some day down the road. i think when we look at the world, let the seas that the my polar world has come to an end. and nothing has yet replaced it. but the russian intervention in grain essentially provided the background for

a return of the united states to europe and the z u. a nation often a to with the addition of in fact, also new members, surprisingly sweden and finland, which are likely to become members sometime soon. so now turkey is located in geography where it has to balance various foreign policy interests and various threats or security variations. therefore, i do not anticipate that you will were to get out of nate. but what we have seen in general is a tendency among natal members to pursue more independent policies in comparison to earlier times when the cold war was progressing in full steam. because the cold war was progressing in full steam. the concern was that

there would be a major russian onslaught which the europeans would not be able to meet their own resources. so american commitments, particularly, but it's nuclear weapons to europe in defense was mandatory. now the price for that was to accept american leadership and essentially conform to american expectations of foreign policy. national foreign policy, the situation is somewhat modified now. and i think many nathan members, in addition to having the nato commitments to pursue independence policies in other parts of the world. therefore, i think it would not be suit rising for turkey and other needs on members to act more autonomy as the rise of domains. but at the same time, keep their commitment to nato with the original purpose of resisting

russian encroachments into europe. doctor hilter turan thank you so much for taking time out of your day to be with us today. all right, that is gonna do it for this week's episode. modus operandi the show that dig deep into foreign policy. i'm your host manila chant. thank you for tuning in. we'll see you again next week to figure out the ammo. mm ah . what is the possibility of a negotiated end of the conflict in ukraine? there are some indications. nato has shifted its position from total victory on the battlefield. the need of negotiations. at this point. this is not clear. the

biggest barrier of course, is lack of trust. a, [000:00:00;00] with your headlines, anaki international, a senior indian government official confirms to r t that the reason an india russia summit will not take place this year is due to the leaders of scheduling conflicts, despite a frenzy of speculation from certain media outputs. also ahead for you is a disgrace that's weakening the block, an e u official lashes out of the latest corruption scandal involving the union. that's how the media ultimately white watches the news involvement in the