me, what is the possibility of a negotiated end to the comes again ukraine? there are some indications. nato has shifted its position from total victory on the battlefield to the need of negotiations. at this point, this is clear, the biggest barrier report is the lack of trust the news. hello, i'm manila chan. you are tuned into modus operandi the show that explores the methods and patterns of foreign policy all around the world and the history that reverberates in our lives today. it has been a long, contentious relationship for turf here, torn between east and west, sitting at the crossroads of central asia and europe. turkey has recently re branded and holds the key to the accession of sweden and finland into nato. now

this once peripheral player in global affairs has stepped into the limelight. this week will explore turn here and their new role taking center stage as the new mediator of peace and hub for vital grain shipments around the world as the war and ukraine continues, cent turkeys, history, and conflict with neighbors. can the country overcome some of its past mistakes and move forward toward a new image? we'll discuss it. all right. let's get into the ammo. the me. alright. you say turkey or the one says, no matter which way you slice it, the turks are in a precarious situation. they share borders with a different nation, some of whom they have less than friendly relations. but they are the gateway to

europe in one direction. and the portal to asia in the other, in recent weeks, turkish president, rachel irwin has taken center stage as a key negotiator and the ongoing conflict in ukraine. intervening in a looming global food crisis are the one able to moderate trade agreements for great shipments to leave you crane ports and make their way to several countries who feared shortages this winter. on the 1st ship loaded web grains has departed from the odessa port all ukraine. and once at this ship arrived and stumbled, phosphorus, the representatives of russia, ukraine, turkey, and the un. well, do all the necessary checks and controls and start departing at for the, for her next destination. now his good relations with russian president vladimir

putin continues to make turkey's western allies nervous, especially those in the nato block. his country has served as the holding grounds for numerous refugees from the middle east for years fleeing the us led war in iraq . people displaced by the 20 year us war or occupation of afghanistan, the civil war in syria, and others just hoping to make their way to europe by weight of turkey or now or on, sometimes prickly relations with neighboring countries, such as grief weaponized, the refugee crisis, threatening to open the floodgates of refugees, over issues of cyprus and topics, he's at loggerheads with with other world leaders. now president earth one has stated that quote, it is greece that is condemning refugees to death by skewering their boats. and that he has no idea how grief would handle migrants if turkey did open its doors. but for the used part,

long dangling the carrot of joining the economic block for decades, but never moving forward in a meaningful way. doesn't engender much trust from the turks either. but now rachel berta. one holds the keys to whether or not sweden and finland can join nato. the block requires unanimous approval for accession how the turks asking sweden to extradite several people on their most wanted list and unhappy with the united states over the development of the f. 35 fighter jet deal that fell apart after turkey purchased russian s 400 missile defense systems. certainly a lot of moving parts coming out of turkey these days. for more on the latest out, a turkey will bring in seen on organ. he's a founding partner of east double economics, a consulting firm that specializes in public and regulatory affairs, and as the chairman of the center for economics and foreign policy studies,

he was also a member of the turkish permanent delegation to the european union and also served at the turkish embassy in tripoli now and president potent and early on, recently met in sochi. after there was an agreement that 5 turkish banks would adopt russia's mere payment system. how significant a move is this for these 2 parties is turkey essentially saying it is done with western sanctions on russia and ready to pursue its own economic policy in the black, the region? yes, indeed. church, president, argon, and the russians from you have a number of agreements when they met last week. one of them was a, for the russian credit card clearing the mirror to also be used in turkey by about 5 turkish fax. the reason for this is that

russia is the number one country in terms of sending forest church there, about 5.56 meters that come from russia to turkey before the war. and in that sense, it's the number one country. so there was a leading this on both sides also from the turkey side because the sort of, even though they make their initial payments to poor operators when they are on turkey, the they want to use their credit cards. and of course, these that are not anymore racially shut, they rely on the new system. and that's the reason why i now need a turkish facts are starting to offer the services as well. so did these russian

tourists can spend money while they are in turkey. now with turkish government does not see this as a violation of sheets, and it has not formally criticized or put under any sort of oppression or investigation on account of the decision to offset in your system. it is much more on that side that the church, he's not particular transaction with one of the russian oligarchs, and up with a sizable sons of their their wealth being transferred to turkey. this is not something that once in the church of the white ocean, another reason why this is not sanctions 100. so she says that from the

western perspective, us and european perspective, many of the companies, western companies that cease to work in russia with tre perspective, arguing that management petition risk, they're not doing that to comply with the letter of the sanction, per se. but they're going beyond that and they proceed to be a reputation risk. they watch much. so the fact that they're not doing that sort of business anymore. russia means that there's a vacuum for other players. in this case, companies can take advantage of that. and if they do again, this is not, this does not mean that they are in violation of the same. she just need that they are replacing that. some of the western companies that don't want any more who business, right? was repetition. now it's been reported that presidents are to one and i thought may

sit down and discuss their differences inferior at peace talks. being brokered by russia. could we see a full settlement in syria in the next few years? and how might the west try to resist this? i mean, what, what needs to be on the table and, and dealt with both from the turkish side as well as the syrian side. i mean, is, is russia really in a strong position to lead these talks? and see a settlement actually go through. well, i think the prospect that aren't along and our son li, physically and directly engage us about the future on syria are still a pretty small there over the years. this is the beginning of the crisis in august 2011. and there has really been a lot of effort on turkey side to carry out machine change. a turkey

helped a civilian and the movie and the trip was a shooter issue. so there is now a very significant erosion off trust, both with neutral trust. and i don't think that this is going to be a bridge any time soon. there are talks between turkish and stream of fishing, but these are at lower levels. so the prospect of truly there's coming together is still pretty distance in my mind. denise, russia is indeed insignificant player, even that has the degree of leverage over to damascus. so russia indeed wants it to happen. however, this is me at east stance

a bit unrealistic and also because the, the terms of a political settlement in syria and have not been defined clearly there are many outstanding issues. i will leave that right there. sin are all gone. founding partner of istanbul, economics and chairman for the center for economics and foreign policy studies. thank you so much for being with us today. and coming up next, we'll take a look back at some of turkey us history, some of which saw the united states label even genocidal. can a modern turkey overcome its dark past? that is coming up next on the ammo. don't go anywhere will be right back. ah, ah.

a hello. my ha ha ha. ha ha. ha ha ha ha my my my name. my name with la 1113

green spoke with madison. both both domo. she need to do your books with a, a form already. a lot of them bought a, a with, with a sarah. this is

a lawyer, myrtle doesn't with the turkey is host to the most refugees in the world. some nearly 4000000 refugees primarily from syria. then other many nations like iraq, afghanistan, and many others. now the turks bore the brunt of those displaced by the violence of war, across the middle east, over the last 20 years. with so many people who qualify for asylum in the country, resources have been stretched a thin after so long. however, thousands of these asylum seekers sought to transit through turkey into greece,

who by and large, have rejected nearly 70 percent of refugee applicants. now in 2016 turkey and greece serving as the proxy for the rest of the e, you signed an agreement that would return asylum seekers who were denied entry to the you to be returned to turkey, labeling, tortilla, a safe 3rd party. get the sigma keys that i just don't, you can designation of turkey as a safe 3rd country is an important step in tackling illegal migration flows and the criminal activity of smuggling network seen up a little symphony with the joint ministerial decision as a derivative of the cooperation between ministry of foreign affairs and ministry of migration and asylum is fully in line with international law and enhances greece's legal arsenal, against requests by citizens from countries such as syria, afghanistan, pakistan, bangladesh, in somalia,

countries that have no reason whatsoever to consider turkey a non safe country, don't forget you don't get these yet lives a personal level. now, all garage signed the deal in good faith only defined that greece would later impose a national policy. 2021. that designated asylum seekers from afghanistan, bangladesh, pocket on. so malia and syria as effectively automatic decline for asylum in greece, thereby no way of entry into the, you know, those people would be returned to turkey and cases would only be reviewed on a case by case scenario. if they can prove that turkey was not a safe host for them. now, this rule accounted for roughly 60 percent of asylum seekers hoping to get into the e u. so when response in 2022 turkey began refusing, these refugee returns from greece. any legal status leaving thousands of people in

legal limbo. so without refugee status from ankara or the e u. these people have no government assistance for housing, food basic needs, and can't legally work either. meanwhile, as the ukraine conflict erupted, the e you took in 3000000 ukranian refugees in a lightning fast coordinated effort. this contrasted with the turkey or you refugee deal has not sat well with earned. the one are joining us for more on turkey as a sanctuary. country for refugees is dr. ill turret, turan president of the international political science association and ameritas professor of political science in the department of international relations at eastern will build a university. he is also the author of books and articles in english and in turkish

on comparative politics, turkish politics, turkish foreign policy, a whole host of things. professor, thank you so much for joining us now. dr. turan since you see 1st hand refugees coming into your country. turkey is indeed a host to so many refugees, primarily syrians. but a lot of others as well. how long can your country sustain supporting this amount of people? i mean, will the syrians ever be able to return home, or is it, do you think it's more likely that they'll end up staying so long in turkey, that they no longer want to return to their home? or this is an interesting question about which there is a lot of debate in turkey these days. we have a number of events, some of them coming in from afghanistan or pakistan. there are other movements from africa into turkey in the hope of then reaching europe. and then there is

a very large contingent of syrian refugees. now, we may classify these refugees into different groups. i think as i tried to indicate some of them, i in fact inter key with the hope of crossing into europe and they try a number of questionable means to get across the turkish border. some of them take boats to the cost of the greek islands. some have even taken larger notes in the hope of reaching italy, then some are trying to cross into reach through the land border crossing a river that constitutes the bar. so, we have a group that is temporarily in turkey, its own. the goal is to be able to get across, but then particularly a large number of syrian refugees have in fact settled in turkey and

low. technically speaking, their intention is to go back home as their stay gets longer. and there is a question as to whether they shall be able to return and whether they will want to return because you know, their children are going to use some of the children they acquire grades or proficiency in turkey spend they have in their big, et cetera. but the issue welcome to the syrian refugees began to log off. and now increasingly this is becoming a campaign issue in politics where the issue is promising to send the syrians back peacefully. the current government initially not responding to these pressures, is now trying to respond as well with its own programs, where they are trying to build cities or villages in syria. it's

in the core or sending some of these people back to syria. but you know, if i need to make a realistic res, i think we'll have several things at the same time. if the re, some sort of a modus vivendi with this hearing regime. some serious, we'll go back. sound will be sent to other countries, but a good many will prefer to stay in turkey and, and so this is going to constitute a problem no matter how you look at it. but certain the, the amount of investment turkey has had to put into taking care of the immigrants is getting more and more. it's a large sum. and there are complaints that the son should be spent on turkey citizens rather than immigrants. and also, there are incidents where large communities of immigrants together and her problem

ethical relationships with the neighborhood. it's a problem this going to stay with us for a long time. do you think a warmer ties between russia and turkey following the fall out from the fighting in crane? could see a stabilization of the situation in syria, perhaps thawing between the assad government and the earth. one government, i mean, could we see the refugees return? perhaps in this particular circumstance, where i think the war in ukraine and russia repeating the korean and russia is something different than the russian presence in syria. the russian government has been deeply committed to keeping michelle aside in power. and they are in a contentious relationship with turkey in terms of what turkey should do to ensure

it's on security, particularly along the board. but if turkey were to change his policy towards syria and it's syria or also, it's just it's policies or turkey, motors ravendie as possible. but this moment this re wendy, would include maybe repatriation of some syrians in syria. but as i tried to indicate in my earlier response, there are a number of syrians that will not want to go back for 2 reasons. some of them may be political, they may see that because of what they had done earlier, they will be held responsible by the office regime. but then there are others for whom, you know, making yet another economic adjustment in their life. so they come to turkey as part of business, etc. they simply seem to painful. and this is further complicated by the fact that

the turkish government has granted citizenship to a number of citizens. so syrian problem is independent of taking russian relations and turkish ukrainian relations. now, inevitably, if the russians hands full in ukraine, they may have fewer resources to the road to syria, but they are providing air control for sir. yes, and the advising the city enforces and turkish forces in terms of sort of acquiring territory for ensuring the security of turkey. acquiring territory would lead turkey into a conflict with russia, which neither turkey no rush. i want to show this will all have to be conducted to negotiations. now turkey is an enigma. in many ways. turkey is

both a member of nato, but it seems to still charge its own path in foreign policy when it comes to russia, especially as well as about the greater middle east as we move into the future. and what many believe will be a multi polar world order? could we see turkey are continue going its own way even to the point of, i don't know, maybe even leaving nato some day down the road. i think when we look at the world, what the see is that the, my polar world has come to an end and nothing has yet replaced it. but the russian intervention in grain essentially provided the background for a return of the united states to europe and the z u. a nation often a to with the addition of in fact, also new members,

surprisingly sweden and finland, which are likely to become members sometime soon. so now turkey is located in geography where it has to balance various foreign policy interests and various threats or security considerations. therefore, i do not anticipate that turkey you will were to get out of nate. but what we have seen in general is a tendency among natal members to pursue more independent policies in comparison to earlier times when the cold war was progressing in full steam. because from the cold war was progressing in full steam, the concern was that they would, they would be a major russian on slot, which the europeans would not be able to meet their own resources. so american

commitments particularly, but it's nuclear weapons to european defense was mandatory. now the price for that was to accept american leadership and essentially conform to american expectations of foreign policy. nation of foreign policy. the situation is somewhat modified now and i think many nathan members in addition to having the nato commitments to pursue independence policies in other parts of the world. therefore, i think it would not be sir, rising for turkey and other needs members to act more autonomy as the rise of domains. but at the same time, he their commitment to nato, with the original purpose of resisting russian encroachments into europe. doctor hilter turan thank you so much for taking time out of your day to be with us

today. all right, that is gonna do it for this week's episode of modus operandi the show that dig deep into foreign policy. i'm your host manila chant. thank you for tuning in. we'll see you again next week to figure out the ammo ah cans. ah, ah, ah, what is the possibility of a negotiated end of the conflict in ukraine? there are some indications. nato has shifted its position from total victory on the battlefield to the need of negotiations. at this point, this is gladys clear. the biggest barrier of course, is the lack of trust. i, in 2022. the italian government approved a package of military aid to ukraine,

coordination with nature to help ukrainians defend themselves and fight back about 150000000 euros. wow. i make a week. even i told me, bombs are hearing all the same nato and the u. f. with you, i'm the one that people will die just for make money. the one that even yes carol, you must. you got soon. every few gone through my she thought complete. i mean there's water damage with me only debutante good. i won't put them in as well. the other more saw me my show it buzz road tool or a for orfa exec leila lesson opinion polls show that over 70 percent of italians are against military support for ukraine. i landed in confront with the day for us laughter. e flat don't a levels yet. li got it more on

a skid out and go home and do not she them to talk to you about the daily death. wonderful. i lucille my love so little boy a lot you then because he has been a fool because i'm running fun theater. the layout ah, is our top headlines on our team international. a senior indian government official confirms to r t that the reason an india russia summit will not take place here is due to the leaders scheduling conflicts despite a frenzy of speculation from certain media outlets. also ahead in this hours program it's a disgrace that's weakening the block, an e u official lashes out of the latest corruption scandal involving the union as, as the media whitewash is the huge involvement in the entire corruption of fair. please.