[000:00:00;00] with me, ah, [000:00:00;00] ah, hello and welcome to cross stock were all things are considered on people about what is the possibility of a negotiated end of the conflict in ukraine? there are some indications. nato has shifted its position from total victory on the

battlefield to the need of negotiations. at this point, this is unclear. the biggest barrier of course is the lack of trust. ah, discuss these issues and more. i'm joined by my guess, glen these and in our slow, he's a professor at the university of south eastern norway as well as author of the book, great power politics in the 4th industrial revolution. and here in moscow, we have to meet re bobbitt. she is a political analyst and editor, and he knows me internet media project are generally across our roles. in fact, that means you can jump anytime you want. and i always appreciated. ok, so i was going in our slow glen, you know, with the over the last week, couple of weeks here with getting a lot of mixed signals out of nato to the point it seems to me looking at their discourse, is that it's turning into a modicum of panic, i'm worrying about escalation and the,

the were the need for negotiation on the rhetoric that ukraine is, winning seems to be fading away. so read the tea leaves for me. what do you, where we are, where are we right now? go ahead. well, in any conflict it's, it's not easy, but it's possible to foresee when each party will be inclined towards negotiating. so for example, when both sides believe they can win this little chance of negotiation. obviously, nano has been quite optimistic. so they could that they could win it, which is why a lot of the rhetoric has been very, very wallace calling aggressive. so russia will be defeated on the battlefield as forest. johnson said, you know, bad piece will not be accepted there. so essentially, nothing short of a full victory would be acceptable. some even talked about it taking back crimea and you know, so it was very extreme. but now of course,

we said that when some change to some extent done, that the great army suffered vary greatly on the battlefield. now, much of the manpower and the equipment has been exhausted. the ability to supply them is also reduced significantly out. ready the weapon store just across the are now being depleted. also the economic impact on this is causing much concern, especially in europe. and as a result, you'll see the political will and to continue this war, also declining. so, so there is a possibility to and that this more willingness now to negotiate. and this is what we've seen in the rhetoric. however, and i would add this, however, it's worth noting that only a few weeks ago you have the newspapers like the washington post, arguing that because the public's becoming more aware or where it's important to give the image that we are trying to push it a piece so it's never really clear because and, and then the more you have such

a huge amount to focus on information warfare. so it is quite possible that this is simply, you know, to give an image stuff. you know, we're not preparing yet another order. both can be true at the same time, also ok, that is true because the west is not one uniform voice even within each country. there are like competing voices, even in the united states in washington. some want the quick end to this now, before the wind now start to, you know, blowing most of those direction or, you know, must go standard. you have great victories. while they're see this us, you know, an opportunity to lead russia in the long run. you know, deem it very interesting, talks about quite a frequently with media and public organizations about what's going on in ukraine any. may, he made it clear that it could be, this could be a long effort. he's not hiding the fact. ok, but at the same time saying everything is on course. i think one of the things that the, that makes it very difficult to conceptualize this conflict is that the 2 different

sides have very different goals. rush, his goal is to demilitarized ukraine. that's very different than victory or regime change. it's the militarization and that is as line is already explained to us that's happening and at a pace to do the kremlin seems to be comfortable with. so the diff there's because there's different perception. let me go to some different perceptions here. is that if this adds to the agent, what n name is conflict, it would be, go ahead. oh, the west likes to talk about russia, not it's plants, it's august. they say that the special meeting, reparation will start the temporary plenty for what course we did not foresee that that would be the battle. that would be this long. protracted bias may be.

the question is, what does the west work? i mean, even less clear about it. just take the last week, how many contradictory messages and there are no quite sure that the west is not speaking with one voice. there is a very bad voice that let me give you an example. president margaret just said that russia security concerns should be conceived as the negotiations that we will have at some point when your grade. well, basically kind of speak from the positional course and you know, so many people west, all does mark rule. and no one defended. well, it's clear that rock roll the keep agreed. he speaks in many ways says today he says that which is tomorrow to call is russia and you would buy. so basically it's not serious. so look like our viewers to think he's a peacemaker. you know? but i mean, at this point here, sorry,

but why would someone like vladimir putin taken the crowns telephone call? what look, could he possibly say? i mean, well, i mean, because, because the point is let me go to glen here because it's, it's washington that matter. it's not berlin, it's not paris, it's not london, it's washington. ok. and i want to talk about the interview with weakness. merkel gave to the media. that'll back up my thesis here. so i mean, you know, glenn, who, why should anybody in the kremlin pick up the phone? i mean, what, what are these people have same and what have they said for the last 10 months that would be meaningful? well i guess we can draw experience from in december and january and those claims that moscow didn't really care much what the you had to say didn't really care what the secretary general murray had to say. the name on caller won worth taking was the one from washington because then today that's where the decisions will be made

. so so much on this. well he, he often placed there all of the great, great leader and capable of doing this. you know, he had a brand new york to grow, but he sent all of this for many years and did find in a rush as a part of europe. you know, it has to be included in this for 30 years now. so i wouldn't, i think when it really came down to it and russia ask, okay, the sentiments convert them into actual security guarantee for us. nothing ever came from across. so, and again, it's not saying it's just thing. it's only we also hinted to our civil from having to support from the americans, not necessarily from the rest of their p and c there. so then from france, you think that powerful, they can't swing into whole with they don't, they don't speak for europe. so it is, it's a positive sign, at least we're talking about how to negotiate because for so long now, negotiations was

a multi word one shouldn't say what's the current appeasement. so in the fact that, you know, you have people like on the us side which is mark mystic, general milly who was interested now is the time to negotiate. i don't think we can get more out of this war than the older have and, and also, and of course, you know, stolen by the costs. i think, to a large extent, he speaks on behalf of washington as well. and he also had a very aggressive rhetoric suggesting the only accept a piece of full victory on the, on the, on the natal ukraine inside. and now of course or young, the diplomacy has to be the less, i'm glad you brought it up because i have a quote from him on the throw to dina. right now. this is still timberly last new cycle here. but we have to but we have to pay a much higher price if our freedom in peace are threatened through pollutant winning in ukraine. again, this is that this is a symmetrical here. what is he talking about?

freedom in peace rush is talking about security and that's what, that's what these negotiation should be about or dema. we can just go back to december 17th of last year as a starting point. ok, we didn't have to go through all of this if, if what nato in washington had taken russia's security demands seriously deem when we do my mil warwell, you know, these freedom of slavery and as drawn, rolling jo, recent transgendered, the guy who re usable. so it's all absurd and you know, some end of the roger mock road, a full get who you same that he's a negotiate friends, artillery pieces hope to do your grade. was the same. just

a kid. basically what i want to say is that this was the males in the west. is it always just to remind you prevail the january? well, no rush made the suggestion and what and what from the west, but just fall off like we are a peaceful defense winds. we have no reason to worry. yes, we've had reason bar watching the same story with the other suggestion. so just recently, there were signals from the, from the united states, so they were not quite happy with you that they were not happy with the model. and then today, or, you know, the last week we actually get messages from the science and political quote, american officials want to say, and i just stays good reason why it's great to strike at the targets jeep and cyber using roles so that you will what is all was the last, they always prevail, is that,

and they always wore the lowest for the needle. and this is a very dangerous situation was we all know where it will stop. well, when would make the journey? is that if, if it's going to be a, a test of escalation, russia can out escalate nato 6 ways to sunday. i mean, it's not, it can't work. okay. and when, but that is the dilemma when what nato is doing is it has a political agenda and it has a military one and they're not necessarily aligned, go ahead one. well, yeah, and i will say that that part of the reason that the mind, nato and russia fundamental difference view in terms of what creates security. so for nato, they tend to subscribe to the concept of liberal hedge money in which you know, the world is divided between democracy and authoritarians. in other words, good between good and evil. so the more power decide of good us that it's, and they don't very sunny russia, the more peace you will have, which is why, you know, the cost race is always all we need to negotiate from positional strength. in other

words, dictate because this is a great piece where the good guys have all the power. and now this is very different from power rush used to world, which focuses more on the secure, to the level that you have competing centers of power. and they have to find ways of harmonizing their security interest. obviously, if you think there was divided between good and evil, then harmonizing or finding a common piece with russia. it's very well that that's one of used to word appeasement. because any time even there antithetical you can't do that. ok, i mean, it is a perversion of its own logic. you gentlemen are going to jump in here. we're going to go to a short break. and after that short break will continue our discussion on some real

estate with our ah ah a money a money? it gives me a my money and my name is in with it. it is, it is

a fact that the mince process has failed. and i can't make any judgment about who has be responsible for the failure of the news process. but if the missed process and the subsequent the implementation, it was successful then it would probably not be in a position that day. but once that the missed process has failed. and once that has been a proceed as a kind of a tech perception by the russian side, then it probably should try to find a remedy, aid to anybody. and it's already have it in his crisis. and the solution should not be a kind of community, a solution. we need dialogue. a welcome back to cross stock where all things are considered on people. well,

this is the home addition to remind you were discussing some real news. ah, let's go back to the me here in moscow. demanding and merkle gave a very curious interview in the last couple of days. and i think it can be interpreted in a number of different ways. i mean which obviously she was criticized by basically i'm pulling the bail back and saying that meant the mens process was, was really not real. and it was buying time for ukraine and for nato to build up ukraine's on defensive and offensive capacities. here. i'm not really sure, i, i necessarily believe her rendition. post fact, i'm like this because i think she's trying to justify her policy that essentially failed. but if you look at it from the russian side, well then obviously these people were not serious. the germans weren't serious, the french weren't serious. and why would they be serious now if they want

negotiations, i think merkel really damaged any kind of the glimmer of hope that there could be talks in the immediate future. go ahead name or. well, it was always a mystery for me. why we rush. it's 10 to excuse america. i mean, there's the mist in russia. that's how she was cool. it actually was just pretended to be bad. no. just a fact. okay. look at doing if you don't believe newspapers, you know, medical needs gotta walk in there, but in builds ya to what we used to write it. absolutely right to. oh, the sign in all day sensation agreement with that with the european you get that. what does the problem? we expect the more we expected more. and then there is stopped in which 38 policemen were killed and hundreds name cuz they want to watch and fro

medical should watch it, you know? i think, well, don't shoot them there. and then, you know, they bring a government reps down, all the people voted for you and wanted to defend their own in the eastern. but she stands for basically what, what is the east? so she, she rules the meaning reaction, all the ukrainian government that they get defeated their retreating and then she stopped. yes, barring time game actually started because they didn't see the new territory. she just said the defeats, but they can get bought and you have for 8 years after that because they didn't retain far enough. so i think the reason why so many people in the world i received is because you gave my theory is that the president has to be, she has, you follow some of the people, you know,

but that doesn't mean our breath. the site should, should be as before. mad because he's he was trying to save fees. we save the room . she was a why she was a very was kind of what she best enormous responsibility for the crash or the relations with the russian. in the last 16 years is absolutely agree with you completely, glenn. but this brings up this credibility issue here. i mean, i mean like to once, why wouldn't you're into walker hi to again, i mean, we don't even have a basic playing field right now to even start starting talks to start talks. if you know what i mean, that was, and it's an amazing revelation coming from a anglo miracle. like i said, i think she could be playing a monday morning, co quarterback, now. ok. and then that i think there is an element of that there. but for, for the russians,

the element of trust is about 0 right now. that's why i said on this program repeatedly, this conflict will come to an end. when russia says it's over, ok, and it achieves it's goal because it's not going to get a cheap those goals to negotiation is going to get those goals. those goals unilaterally, through the use of force level water in the mar, referring to is a huge lack of trust, which is necessary to have that trust if you're going to have an actual negotiation and a compromise in a political settlement. obviously, the mutual trust is quite broken on both sides, so for when they look across and especially the nation of the annexation of this new for region start. this was a huge bridge. of course, russia christmas arguing is, has his own reasons to be doubtful. i mean, why, why, why would they trust this now? and it's worth going back, how far agreements have been broken? because why would this on something now the reason why from russia's perspective,

this war now is because it was never honored to minsk agreement to somebody hosted for 7 years. this is not just my medical course, ankle is largely accepted. also, the american side has been attached and know the reason why we had them in sc agreement. this may cause a war broke out why the war broke out. because after the western governments helps porpoise regime change in camp. and in fact, if you remember during the regime change that we have the there was also an agreement was supposed to be unit the government to germans. being one of the guarantee guarantors for having you to government, which and then abandon the following day, instead gave all the legitimacy the could to the new government to power in the school. and then again, if you can go so far back to it because it always since the end of the cold war has just been broken agreements that one after another. keep in mind that in, you know, in $1090.00, we signed the agreements and $94.00 that we're going to have a common year without dividing less. then we broke it by expanding nato and,

and then even the year signed agreements with russia in 2005 saying this is what i was going to if you're going to engage with common a group countries like ukraine, we're going to harmonize. it's not one next one that won't integrate at the expense of the other. well obviously you broke that that's why we end up in the mind on the school. so it's just been, is one break, i reach agreement after another. so, and the problem is, is there a difficult place to where i sit here in the west? nobody is willing to put themselves into shoes of russia to understand how kind of we, we with the trade all the agreements. we have with them a year after year because then you become a put in a rush apologist overnight and you know, wash the council. so that is a very difficult and the ability to see it on the side is very much diminished, which means there's a foundation for trust. there's no recognition of mutual interest. and if there is no recognition of mutual interest, you tend to fall into this narrative. some good versus evil and again, there's no,

there's no foundation for compromise or trust them. you know, it's very interesting. i really like how glen just phrased it there. because the, when i call the global majority with the global south and it's a really our, the global majority, they actually do not see it the way in the west. does they actually a far more sympathetic to rushes interpret mission and dealing with the west? because the global south has had issues dealing with the west over the centuries. so there's a lot more sympathy there on the, on the part of the global south when it comes to russia's interpretation to this conflict. well, the western press to see we can achieve the opposite result, you know, now sweden and finland want to join nato and the name of those you guys more than ever. well, there was also another result from erection. now china wants to buy oil from saudi

arabia for chinese. see ok. now india wants to buy one pro ration right now. everyone is talking about the way through the goal asked the universe, so exchange cars, which is a huge threat the states, russia didn't want the china while it was the states, the brother itself, by this war, sanction, because everyone in the east will get ok. they basically gross the heart of the russian money. they can do it tomorrow, the last they can do it the primary, you know, if they don't like or well enough, you can, you is not ready, threatening him with all cutting off of all kinds. exactly. exactly. so they don't sell the whole story if there are many sequences that is absolutely right. there was a breach on their side. they have their own narrative. they say, oh rush, you know, respect the chart of europe,

which we basically signed with more biofuel blankets. i'm sorry, it was a wish for think you get all this charge when you euro it was. i found the are in the gage mobile. honda go k, you know, we're all for united. the problem is how do we get that? so they, they have their own narrative beach and agreements, and it is very well developed to these group. the problem is that if the west continues to rehabilitate s as in i guess the dependent last week if they continue to rehabilitate your, excuse them for any kind of groups or they can and the grade math was there will be no negotiation. oh, i remember how all president is king for poland. you know, when he was in power. and the, and boy was very rational, really. he may there, courageous. she came for also and there was a crowd standing next to there. i think. what is your story just delivered them out yet in full time for star on you?

here, it's pulling here. it's not russia that you do want to call them by the next, the next, the move of some of the people in east of europe. they don't want people, she sure, and if you want to be in your home or do you wish to convey position, you are never going well i me or want to kind of permanent the exactly, glenn because that and these people that do not want to have negotiations and defacto do not want to have a, any kind of mutual agreed upon security arrangement in europe. that is that, that is them the worst possible outcome. i mean it, if it's all, it's all or nothing my way or the highway, then we're not going to see the security in europe. no, then this is all the main problem we have, but the european are quite divided on this issue though. i mean, i mentioned that you know, natal, so united. no,

but i think that was initially because of the shock am concerned and you know, taken by surprise as russia and they did. but i think the longer this goes on you're going to so you're going to see more, more, more divisions also within, within europe. but of course, this dimensions can, can also then obstruct any in peaceful negotiations. but again, i think at the end of day or some of the european eastern europeans things, i don't think it matters this much. what, what washing wants. i, it is quite possible a compromise can be reached. i mean, i, even so if a me speculate perhaps, that, you know, russia with, at some point even be willing to negotiate, you know, giving updates. well, it's called newly acquired territories on the western bank on the river. i mean, it started the western bank and, but it's not good. but again, it's not certain. and again, i mean, the main challenge for russia now is what, what in the peace agreement look like?

because he would have to, like the americans wouldn't, wouldn't allow for, for example, recognizing any in your corner territory. but for russia, it would need a final piece because i suggested it, if you did not get any guarantees on this piece, equipment will just be a temporary cease fire. you know, is it a big topic for a future? they should know about the time we have that i want to think my guess in our slow and here in moscow, and i want to thank our viewers for watching us here. are the see next time, remember? ah ah, [000:00:00;00]

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