narrative on the conflict in ukraine. kubota writes, i assume that the war in ukraine is not a desperate defense of a threatened nation, but a so called proxy war between russia and the west with ukrainian suffering losses at the expense of various, mainly american military lobbies. clearly, cold war hawks use the war in ukraine in their interests, and the heroic defenders of ukraine. sovereignty are also obviously admirable. but almost no one writes about the former, and almost every one about the latter. it's easy to imagine what our american friends would do. the training center for mexican soldiers led by russian, all chinese instructors was suddenly opened near the mexican pull to vote. a cruise and the training program could prepare for the recovery of the territory of the present state of new mexico and maybe even parts of california. so let's think seriously about what russians may think and feel when western instructors, mainly anglo saxons, have been training, ukrainian soldiers, and participants of the so called volunteer battalions. regiments in several centers preparing them for an attack on the crimea,

a most likely also on russia itself. napoleon, government and media have closely followed the western narrative since our russia is a special military operation began in february, the polish president describing the conflict as an imperialistic war. i spoke with under thomas house and the german attorney and ameritas professor of lawrence of africa. he says he hopes more. intellectuals will now speak out against certain governments that are clearly benefiting and profiting from this conflict. freedom of opinion and freedom of thought can never be silenced for a long time past. phenomenal insane prophets are kind d being written by a destructive industry. it's a, it's a, it's an industry that produces the weapons of mass destruction and more and more being channelled to ukraine. and it is like an obsession of some definitely present biden is obsessed with. i mean it, ukraine, as some people say,

until the last ukrainian alive. so it is impossible to find peace pharmacy. so modern conflict resolution can only be achieved by, by listening to each other by addressing the roots of the conflict. why? why did somebody feel compelled to use force and the it is, it is very simplistic to say that russia conducting a war of aggression when clearly there's a 10 year run up to that situation which can't be blended off. i do hope that more intellectuals will speak out and will put pressure on, on governments that seem to, to run, to benefit from an arms race. not just about wrapping up with ours broadcast from moscow. bizarre to international thanks so much for joining us and sharing a time with us here in the russian capital. one of the top stories from this evening look at shanker, the bell, russian president meeting with his russian counterpart in mint. put in a look at shanker, talking about an awful lot of areas of cooperation between the 2 countries. learn

more about it at your own leisure. with what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have. it's crazy confrontation, let it be an arms race is on, often very dramatic development. only personally and going to resist. i don't see how that strategy will be successful, very critical time time to sit down and talk the hello. i'm manila chan you were tuned into modus operandi the show that explores the methods and patterns of foreign policy all around the world and the history

that reverberates in our lives today. now it's an island and turmoil. sri lanka is facing its worth financial food and energy crisis since its independence from britain. in 1948. unicef says one in 4 children aged 6 and under our malnourished as families across the island say they are skipping meals in order to balance household budgets. the civic anger began brewing spring of 2022, and by summer it swelled to see b. l, stirring of president and go to bio roger pox. so with a crisis being felt by the public and a crisis of confidence being felt by the government, what will become of the 22000000 residents of this bankrupt nation? we'll discuss all that and more coming up. all right, let's get into the m o me

after a series of tax cuts issued by former president and go to buy a roger pox in 2019 followed by allegations of rampant corruption in this political dynasty family. this south asian nation is now facing a crisis. food insecurity is rising. fuel prices are rising, household, stables, food products like flour and grain are increasingly difficult to obtain. so to dig a little deeper into this humanitarian issue, facing the island, we are being joined by tomato, the seller who dean. she is the director of south asia programs at the us institute of peace to mont. thank you for being with us. tim, on a 1st, what is happening in sri lanka, what sort of price increases are you seeing? are people out of work? i mean, what is day to day life in sri lanka, like since the economy went bust?

i mean, i think you're seeing for a middle income country, the economic impact on people is astronomical. they're experiencing inflation, food inflation like they've never seen before. so these are people who are used to being able to find the food. first of all, you are able to find it and then it's so expensive, it's very hard to purchase food in stores. a 2nd of all you saw, especially earlier this summer, we saw the long, long lines for petrol, for gasoline. there's restrictions on who could get it and even if people waited all day, they weren't able to get it. and then on cooking gas. so these are 3 very important things. you know, food inflation was touching 90 percent where people just couldn't afford anything. people couldn't buy patrol, couldn't go to work, couldn't go to school because they couldn't put no gas in their cars or rick shot

drivers. public transport wasn't moving. so you know, this is something that sri lankan haven't experienced before at this level. so it really was a dire economic crisis. the country's inflation hit, a staggering 39 point one percent back in may, which led to throngs of protesters taking to the streets and later the presidential palace, forcing out roger pox a who fled overseas, reportedly to singapore. now in 2016, the american ambassador to the un, samantha power, called sri lanka, quote, a global champion of human rights and democratic accountability. how do you find her comments now after president roger pox, a was ousted for corruption. i think her commons reflect the shrunken people and civil society really does champion human rights. i think after the end of the civil war, you've seen complains about civil rights,

human rights since 2009 and even before that because of treatment of minorities during the war. now, successive governments, i think you had a unity government at the time where it was trying to have good governance. but since then, the roger boxes, when they've come into power, you know, it's been plagued with cronyism, nepotism, the military taking over most you know, having some military presence or former military officials in almost every role in the civilian government. and so it's been plagued by that sort of corruption. and that is really, i think, remarkable why you saw sri lumpkins of all stripes. stand up, you know, it's economic crisis, but it's also the political crisis. stand up and demand for go to buy raj asa and his government to leave. and so let's not forget the remarkable nature of the protests, the sustain nonviolent protests that really removed. roger pox says administration,

while protest have since quelled the new president, renelle rec, my sing ha, is now and talks with the i m f for a bailout package after the island ran out of foreign reserve currency to pay back its debts. a move, a lot of people have criticized as to opaque and with too many strings attached primarily to the west. the i m. f, visited sri lanka and made promises to restore macro economic stability and debt sustainability while protecting the poor, the vulnerable safeguarding financial stability. and even stepping up structural reforms to address corruption and those well our abilities and unlocks relock those growth for potential or potential growth. so for example, food insecurity is rising in the country. unicef says one out of 4 kids under age 6 and for longer are malnourished. now,

they expect that number to grow as inflation begins to skyrocket. what organizations or countries even are helping the starving children in that country? exactly. this is a country that is not used to this is a middle income country. i think one of the most important things we can do as, as, as i m f, loans and other things come in is think about what other countries can give food, aid and assistance. japan, india. and you know, these are some of the largest countries that can bring assistance. united states has pledged or invited over the summer pledge to systems, especially for children. we need a unity of action around the world. this is not going to be only in sri lanka, this high loans, high inflation disruption of world of green production because of the war. and ukraine is affecting lots of countries. and i think sri lanka is the canary in the coal mine is showing you the middle income countries can fall to

a place where children are experiencing so much malnourishment. and i think we really need to think about how the world that you and especially donor countries can go beyond just loans, but really help in terms of food assistance. sri lanka is also facing an energy crisis. what's causing that and, and how do we put an end to it? i mean, this is a global energy crisis. so you have high energy prices globally because of the war in ukraine. and it is really affecting countries like sure luck of that are ex, important dependent that they have to import and energy and fuel. i think there are a couple of things. one, obviously is the global prices and inflation. and once you default, as sure luck i did, it makes it that much higher to get harder to get credit and to buy fuel and other things. india has come to their assistance in terms of that help them with

immediate needs. i think longer term there's also internal problems that she longer has in terms of managing fuel and managing its dependence on external fuel. and so i think you have to do both at the same time, it's solving the economic crisis and helping countries that have are facing the shock of global energy prices, but also thinking about how to better manage internally as energy costs. the sri lankan government is also imposing a ban on numerous imports of common goods and products to the country. why are they doing that? well, i mean, look, you have, you have very little in terms of a foreign reserve. so you have very little in terms of for reserves of dollars. and so a country like sure longer that is largely import dependent has to restrict some sort of of the import so as not to spend all their dollars before their i am f loon and

other loans, excuse me, come through. so this is really crucial that they are cutting back. you can see the president vicar missing as new budget is supposed to be cutting costs in terms of spending. that is one way to save reserves, but also you have to limit, especially in terms of luxury goods and other things really limit where you're spending those precious dollars in terms of importing things. so they have to see those that foreign reserve to import things like fuel like energy, crucial food, stuff that you can't get into laga. i think in the long term they have to think about the, you know, the tax to g d p ratio, but also the exports. how can you restart export in the country so that you actually do have more of a foreign reserves? i think for sure long those are dependent really on t, it's

a big export on tourism, which isn't doing great, and then on remittances. and with a pandemic, all of those things were affected and of course mismanagement, buying the right boxes. the country suffered a civil war and issues surrounding the tamil tigers. have those wounds healed and do you think all parties can come together now to prevent an even greater humanitarian crisis from erupting? i, you know, the civil war into long lasted for decades and the wounds of that have not healed. i mean, we ostensibly had an end to wish along the civil war in 2009. but the way in which, you know, the single is nationalist military really put down on the thomas tigers and others. the tunnel minority in general has left unhealed wounds across the country. and so while we're talking about people coming in to the streets that

represent all sri lumpkins, let's not forget that the tunnel minority has been protesting and seeking justice and reconciliation for years even before this crisis. and i think while the sri lankan are united because of the economic crisis, the political crisis is just as important and the to reinforce each other. you know, with the s o p p. this is roger pock says supportive, they're political party, still dominating the government. and renew vicar missing of the new president being brought into power by them. you still have the political causes of the original problems, right? so you haven't resolved this. you don't have a representative government that represents all interests. you don't have a pathway to reconciliation. i think that's really important, even though we're looking at the acute problem of the economic crisis, we can't forget that the larger problem of minority rates of

reconciliation after the civil war of a more representative government is really important. and that's why you still see protesters coming out seeking new collections or more accountability, more credibility in the government. i think until and unless you repeal or change the executive presidency. and until and unless you have fresh elections that signal more legitimacy. but you can have a more representative government, you're not going to start a pathway to healing the longstanding ones. sri lanka is a smaller country and both in geographic size and population. so in terms of geo politics, why is sri lanka so important and, and why is there crisis so relevant to modern politics? i think she's on the 1st and foremost is emblematic of what a lot of similarly placed countries are going through. so it's not so much that she

located in of itself is so important, but it's story a one where political cronyism, political elite or depending on borrowing have led have cause mismanagement corruption and have led their country to be overly dependent on foreign loans. and then come into default, so you see a lot of countries, not just in south asia, we're seeing problems in pakistan going to the i m f. but right now the world is focused on sam b. s. you have other similarly situated middle income countries, that in the last 1020 years have become far too dependent on international loans. and while we talk about chinese debt diplomacy, our jet debt trap as one of the factors, i would say that is an exacerbating factor. their loans to china, i think it is the whole mindset of countries that are more and more authoritarian, more populous for leaders are allowed to take these loans and then not be able to

pay them back, hoping that they'll just go away in the end. it causes a crisis for the people in the country. so 1st and foremost, i would say that it's a warning sign to similarly place countries. second of all, i mean if we're thinking about the us china, strategic competition than china, then sri lanka is a place where we see this playing out. so the, the largest countries that have lent money to sri lanka. obviously china is up there, but it's japan, india, these are countries, china, japan, and india that are in the quad alliance with australia and the united states. and so they have an interest in the, in the pacific you know, having a rules based in the pacific and sri lanka is a very important place in the, in the pacific. it is right in india's backyard. i think it's notable here to see that while many of the loans that show on guys facing default on our, from china,

the aid that they've received is largely from india. and so this is a place where you're seeing that g, a strategic competition. we just saw the other day with the chinese and indian embassies in colombo, getting into a bit of a public twitter spat over a chinese vessel being port at the port in ha mendota. so you, you are seeing in real time that friction in terms of, in the pacific competition competition with china and here very clearly. india and japan on one side with china on the other to mana celica, dean. thank you so much for being with us today. now as inflation skyrockets, amid the political crisis in sri lanka, there are non governmental locals who are helping their neighbors. moses a cash de silva of voice for the voiceless foundation has been on the ground helping the needy during this crisis. he says, it's not just

a matter of food shortages that the island is facing. the fuel shortage is making it difficult for locals to cook the food that they do have listen to me saturday. so concept called her community teacher on the 1st of june. the most recent, a situation that we facebook, we used to the same address as 2 people back then we came across with certain families who are not able to be best. if you look at last 3 months, we've out of courtesy mind the loud to fly and ask to be signed off a picture that you guys have on that people who are not able to cook at home at a very specific with. so therefore, the crises right now, i see not even a surprise to me. i would say for this, these people who are copying travel, vicky chance this is my only one with the provide them on daily basis. so i am seeing very much the law in government middle income people. i see be affected,

felicia, that this a lot of essential, as i would say. and next, when we return, we'll look into who and what agencies are attempting to help sri lanka. will these agencies actually help or harm the still developing nation? don't go anywhere. the ammo will be right back for ah, [000:00:00;00] a shave, how disdained becomes the advocate?

an engagement. it was the trail. when so many find themselves worlds of horn, we choose to look for common ground the me alright, we now know where this island nation stands today. but how exactly did sri lanka get here? and who's really trying to help? which country they're stepping in to stop the financial bleeding. this nation of some 22000000 suffering for that. we are joined by carlos the sousa. he is the director of volunteer bell asset management in zurich, switzerland. before joining bought about carlos was actually the lead emerging markets economist at oxford economics and organization specializing in global forecasting and quantitative analysis. carlos,

thank you for being with us. carlos right now, sri lanka is in the process of debt restructuring after it failed to pay some of its bilateral debts for the 1st time in the country's history. at the start of may 2022. and they've been meeting with the i m f. the international monetary fund to sort out a new loan program and find a new path to pay back its creditors. many people criticize this as a debt trap that will further send the island deeper into debt. how do you read this forthcoming? i am f loan. i didn't qualify in the program in any way i am a lending is done a confessional rates. so i could not get can i borrow from any other credit or no? it rates, then it can from the m. s. perhaps from multilaterals or similar interest rates. so

i definitely will know what if i did the best route. i think the government got itself in a dead traps in the previous years. and now it has to get out of it and go into the math to get a program of reforms and to be able to postpone these deaths and to restructure including haircuts for all that is public, that it's just a normal procedure. sovereigns undertake whenever they get into the us state department boasts of strong diplomatic ties with the island and, and launch the $2000000000.00 it has given the country. the problem is that is the total amount in a given since the countries independence from britain back in 1948. now for comparison, the u. s. department of defense gets an annual budget well over $700000000000.00. the u. s. with a new round of grants through usa id. now coming in with about $6000000.00 in

humanitarian assistance, will provide cash assistance, short term jobs, and agriculture supplies such as seeds directly to the crisis, effective people to meet obviously their basic needs. now this new grant funding builds on $120000000.00 in new loans through the department, or excuse me, the development finance corporation, the df seat. now for geo geo political purposes. it would actually be who the us to simply just give sri lanka this lump sum as a grant, not really alone. it's really not a lot of money for the us. what sort of strings do you think will be attached to this us economic intervention? dsp loans to my knowledge. there's not a lot of experience in general with the c loans business, a relatively new instrument that is being used by the united states. but they typically don't come attached with

a lot of strings because they are proposed fully linked to your political interest . so i don't think this particularly will come attached with a lot of strengths. to be honest, i would highlight that the reason why i have not received historically a lot of grams is because really historic is not a low income country, rather mailed in the country that got into bonds, a payment crisis in crisis. recently. ready so you know, it's not common for sure, lank out to not be able to cover it. it's a force of basic needs. this is just a temporary crisis situation, but it's different from say, many sub saharan africa countries that typically receive a lot of grants every year and have done so for, for several decades. street and it's in a different sort of situation and structure. it's a different kind of country so that that would justify wise rebecca has not received so many grants in the past. us treasury secretary janet yellen at

a g 20 meeting in bali and july singled out china as quote, dragging its feet when it came to discussions about debt restructuring through the i m f framework. now, china holds about 44 percent of the countries debt totaling some $5000000000.00 us dollars. so other estimates put that dollar figure as double that japan is a far distance. second, creditor coming in at about 32 percent. the us holding just one percent of the countries $51000000000.00 total debt. do you foresee china stepping in to aid this country? and what would that look like if it did? well, what the secretary yelling was referring to was about china. yeah. driving speed with respect with regards to the restructuring that and i think also in regards to

at the okay. and chat the so the 3 nations that have requested to be part of the common framework. this was a new setup that was created after the crisis to restructure public that of low income countries in particular. so these framework that's not apply in the exact same way, but it is well known that china typically doesn't want to take principles haircuts . and the way that they have in the past restructure that's bilateral deaths with, with their, with their partners is just postpone in that maturities. in some cases, i believe there's been some good options in the interest rates. but to the public knowledge, at least there has been no haircuts. and what is known so far is that it is similar in the case of zombie. and so we would expect that release in the, in the sense of lengthening maturities, but not so much in the sense of china taken at erica. this is probably going to be

similar in the case of st lanka and hopefully because of the economic situation is being so dire more severe in some ways. it was the case in avia than china will probably move forward or hopefully move forward with the restructuring a bit faster than he did in the case of zombie, which took quite a long time. and he's just been recently being finalized in the bilateral case. not yet on the commercial credits are case, which will happen in the next few months. carlos, this is a avant about asset management. thank you for being with us today. now at the time of this taping, sri lanka has yet to hash out a direct plan on how to shore up its finances or immediately bring down the inflation that's causing so much financial difficulty for the average sri lankan.

and that is gonna do it for this weeks episode of modus operandi the show that digs deep into foreign policy. i'm your host manila chan. thank you for tuning in. we'll see you again next week to figure out the ammo. ah ah, the headlines right now, what are the international that's the russian non russian presidents have just wrapped up in minutes discussing broad plans, the continued cooperation, a bilateral trade in the industrial project high on the agenda of course, along with issues old national security with the you has pushed through a price cut on russian gas that are leveled much below what was initially proposed that despite some pushback from at least 9 members, south africa president celebrates reelection, is the head of the countries ruling party for