geneva center for security policy in switzerland from where he joins me. thank you so much, captain for coming on the show. i wanted to talk about the us postal service in the pacific islands and how that may be important when it comes to what's happening. the south china sea, but of course everyone is there while everyone in the global south, perhaps not in nato nation, media is turning to what's been happening in the west pacific. what do you make all of the people's liberation army navy, as an aircraft carrier? the leon ng going into the west pacific. obviously, the china people who support china was saying this is a response to jake sullivan. celebrating japan has taken a bold and historic step to strengthen and defend the free and open in their pacific. after japan appeared to overthrow it, so no 1st use of weapons policy. well, 1st of all, action the appreciate the invitation to speak to you on the show. and i tend to look at things what through what i call the strategic trend line. so chinese,

a carrier strike groups and surface action groups warships have been transiting out through the 1st island train since 2007 is when they really started to to go out into the philippine sea. but what we see here over the last week, a week ago, as up up to 11 worships plus some on non number appeal, a navy nuclear submarines all deployed through the market straight, which is the main street south, the book an hour. and through the assume history, and it's an unprecedented deployment because you have 3 of the type o 55 red high class cruisers which are over 10000 tons closer 212000 tons and have 112 vertical launch system tubes that can launch land attack cruise missiles and i should cruise missiles and surface to air missiles, extremely long ranges, and these are all deployed out inside the philippine see now operating. and this

occurred before the japanese announced a new national defense strategy, national security strategy, or even in the last day or 2 analysis, they're probably going to up the size of their budget. so i think what we're seeing is just a long march of what i call the strategic trend line of the p o, a maritime expansion campaign. and just to be clear, it is the largest navy. china has the largest navy. some people may not realize that it do you think that if you were in bay jing a advising change in being and be a central committee of the communist party, you would be saying we've got to show some sort of deterrent. we had pelosi going there in the military aircraft to taiwan. we have japan heralding a seeming budget. that is the number 3 in the world after red china in the united states. we've got to show some force now. yeah, i would re characterize it does not as a deterrence, but as a power projection capability and the p a lay has been building up for 20 plus

years to have the capacity to be able to take time one with military force. and we know who's in town g shipping, ordered the po way to have that capability to take taiwan starting in 2020. i'm pretty convinced that she was confirmed in his mind, that he had the capacity to do that as even as early as 2018. but the orders were from who and g p l, a, be ready to take taiwan by 2020. and so that's really what i call the start of the decade of concern, decade of concern or just a decade of the beginning of further ratification in a way of the congressional activated 79, january 1st to the united states. it also recognizes what the communist party of china recognizes that is taiwan as part of china. well, taiwan is a still something that's debatable, especially for the people that live on the island. it don't want to be part of the people's republic of china, so that,

that question has been open for debate. and united states has been pretty clear that they want to see a peaceful resolution of this dispute. and most civilized nations hasn't said the same. and so that's really the concern right now, is that what we're seeing from the p r c. and especially from the p away by what we saw in august the 1st week of august. with what i characterized as a p l. a time on invasion exercise. it went on, sorry, $911.00, a ballistic missiles that bracketed all around taiwan to the north, the southeast, and to the inside the taiwan strait. and then the continuous deployment of naval forces and air forces around taiwan on a daily basis. yeah, but i have to which of course, the chinese say that the united states has been sending warships exactly through that region. but us pull it to what you are just saying that it's a dispute, but it isn't do it. the u. s. congress ratified an act that says there is no dispute. taiwan is part of china. the low dispute?

no debate. well that there's the legality or the diplomatic language which you're referring to. but in terms of the actual estimation is there is a dispute. because the p r says peer c says we're going to take this by force if we can't get it through other non kinetic means. you just have to go back to the apex . lauren, in october of 2013, we're shipping should. we cannot wait forever for a political solution to taiwan. so g, a split the p r c. it was already on a timeline, but he's publicly exposed of the chinese communist parties timeline to take time on, and they have to do it before the 100 anniversary of the p r. c, which occurs on 1 october 2049. and given that you're not going to be able to use military force and couple of years before 2049, it's been my estimation. that the p r c is calculated at the latest that they could use military force and still expect the world to come to a grand ceremony. and beijing, in 2049 is around the 2030 time frame,

which is the end of what i call again the decade of concern. and presumably, captain, you weren't expecting this when you were say on board a u. s. at gruff carrier in the region back when you were serving. this is all very new. you're saying? no, actually i've been giving this a decade, a concern, a, a warning since 2012, 2011. back when i was at the u. s. specific release that was generated from my experiences for the previous decade when i was in japan both and as you mentioned, the kitty hawk carrier strike group and then with the u. s. 7 fleet. and then my also my time at the office of naval intelligence. so i had a continuous look at the p l. a. the appeal i navy, and have watched them prepare for this and been trying to one americans that will not prepare. you know, the china. i've also been encouraged by recent wars that the united states has been

involved in, in the sense that, okay, the united states, her fear ethically believes that taiwan is part of china. but china is also viewing what has been happening over the past 20 years. the u. s. defeat in afghanistan. notably, and of course, the nato was in syria, afghanistan and iraq, libya and realized they better get a move on because the united states is expanding its reach 400 military bases around at china. and that's a, that's what's concerning them, not to the semi mystical idea of an anniversary numer logically and the importance of reuniting china. well, my neurology is not a myth, it's something that they clearly stayed over and over again. they're going to have a grand ceremony on october 2049 to celebrate the rejuvenation, the great rejuvenation. and they used to use the word restoration as well. and that means are going to have to restore what they believe is their territory. and as you

describe, they believe taiwan is there. so i believe the shinnecock hills are there's, they believe the lower you cruiser. there's the non se shorter. they believe the shelf trying to see is there's and they believe much of disputed border between india and china as is there as well. so we have a lot of areas, we're the people's republic of china and the chinese communist party have for the stake out there and said these are ours and we want them and they're not going to be able to have that ceremony on october 2049 and have a whatever the paramount leader is at that time is not going to be able to stand up in front of the forbidden city and say, we've achieved conrad. jeez, no great rejuvenation without having actually rejuvenated and restored what they believe is theirs. and now i will say, i believe that they have been on strategy to use what they call comprehensive national power, which is using soft power to hard power to achieve their strategic end state. so they've got wolf, where diplomats, they've use economic warfare. we saw what they've done in the south china sea with

law fair in the ability to build 7 islands in the sprout reason to cease scarborough show from the u. s. trudy allied republic of the philippines. so they've been very successful at using non kinetic force. but as i stated, their planning as included to be prepared to use military force. and as time goes on, there are going to be more and more people inside a young and i, which is the leadership compound in beijing for the chinese communist party. and they're going to be hearing more and more calls for it's time to pull the lanyard. it's time to use military force because we have to use it. we have to get through this. we have other things. as you said, we have a change is maybe an american political situation. china has their own demographic issues. they got issues with an aging population. they got age issues. okay. we're just before we, before we get into that. but surely all you just described is a works with the idea that they are the superpower of this century. there by echoes

perhaps of the monroe doctrine in latin america or southern rio grande. they have the largest economy by g, d, p, as purchase power parity. they um, already have the largest navy, a completely natural that they should seek to protect their country. given the $400.00 us basis of they would argue, a declining superpower. and of course, they always said that they don't invade countries. they're not like the united states. they just want to protect their own country and their own, the region are perfectly natural, isn't it? and the u. s. can't do anything about it because they're the most powerful country you. you've got the chinese communist party talking points down perfectly. but i would push back and say that they actually have used their military to cause a, you know, on settlement and disruption to the peace and stability of the, of the asia pacific region. you know, i was like, like in order to begin,

i spent almost 30 years in u. s. navy. and when i 1st started going to see an asian pacific, it was relatively calm place. and we didn't have nations that were worried about conflict with china. we didn't have a nation like japan saying, we're going to blow away 70 years of history and we're going to start preparing ourselves because china is getting ready to use military force to attack, not just i want, but as us as well. and so china has been a force for disruption and it use military forces to threaten and cajole people. it wasn't that he is ago. i mean, we had the president to plow on. and he was quite aware of the allegations of the united states was involved in the assassination of his predecessor, people in the philippines, quite aware of a u. s. involvement, that destabilizing opposition. groups in the philippines. was it really that peaceful in the, in the pacific? during that time with a lot of covert operations to prevent any kind of well, so the critics of u. s. foreign policy would have it democratic ability to have sovereignty on these

islands away from united states control. i'm pretty sure that the prisoner plow said that he would welcome us defense forces in his island nation. he said that repeatedly, throughout the last couple of years. so i think, you know, you can cherry pick and try to, you know, say america is a bad country. but the reality is china's changed the strategic dynamic in the asia pacific with their military build up and their economic coercion and their loftier activities against their neighbors. in the region, just look at the south, tennessee, and the declaration on the code of conduct written in 1999. china's violated every 8 elements, so that declaration code of conduct. they threaten people in the south china sea. they've tried to prevent filipino sailors from getting food and water in various locations down there. they've taken action against, you know, island nations like indonesian new tulip, bizarre. they almost done

a war with vietnam in 2014, over an oil rig ship that they put into a vietnamese oil block. so we have a lot of areas where we seen the chinese military rapidly threatening our neighbors . not, not just taiwan, but others like around the st caucus with the japanese. but we're still, we saw it and we saw with china did in hong kong, subjugating 7000000 people under their control. captain jim fidel, i'll stop you there. more from the former director of intelligence and information operations for the u. s. pacific fleet. after this break. ah ah, ah she a

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ah with ah welcome back to going undergrad. i'm still here with captain jim fidel former u. s. pacific fleet, naval intelligence chief and current government fellow at the geneva center for security policy. yeah, on hong kong. you said the subjugating the chinese subjugating the people of hong kong. do you don't believe the british were subjugating hong kong when it was run by virtual dictatorship and a governor? i ask this because in relation to all those different issues that certainly have played a part as regards sir southeast asian difficulties with china that have sort of sorted themselves out at axia meetings over the years. that isn't the key factor

here, that china is brought 800000000 people out of poverty. and that record is what is so persuasive, all around se, asia, as all these different countries in that region are so terribly impoverished weston, no nato nation allies in the south pacific, let alone of even even japan now, perhaps heading for recession. well, the fact that the chinese opened up their economy and allowed in market forces that allowed the people of china to recover from the devastation of mows greatly forward and cultural revolution. i don't think that's hardly a claim to fame. and if the chinese congress party was doing so well, then you have to ask yourself, why did so many people around china go on protests about the last 3 years of being locked down and murdered in their apartments and having their doors? well, the check obviously, is government denies that and say that they've been tens of thousands of demonstrations every year over the past 2020 years or more. how serious is it

the cavity? how serious is it a threat to us that you're wanting power in the south pacific that these islands are so poor that 40 percent are on the verge of her hunger, in, according to a recent un report? how serious is that? yeah, i think there's, like i said at the beginning of the program, i think there's areas where america and australia, new zealand, and other western nations have neglected their attention. we united states along with our allies in the south pacific and no shana through our world war 2. and a lot of american and allied blood was shed to defend those islands from imperial japanese navy, 80 years ago. and i happened to be fortunate to travel through cure abbas in the solomons and bougainville a couple of years ago, right before the chinese communist parties, virus and everybody. and i was able to see the residue or the reservoir of goodwill

that these people have still towards america. so my, the things that i've been telling american audiences that i talked to is, this is an area that we need to pay a more attention to. not just because we have historical ties with these people. but also because the chinese are seeking to come in there and to establish their control and their lawrence, which which side were the taiwanese who hated mal back then at 11 does only ask because there's been a report to their taiwanese fighters in ukraine. what is the impact of the ukraine war on the u. s. had you monic power in the south pacific? because a think tank her pro blinking. people seem to want to say, look, china isn't in with russia. we can use somehow ukraine to cleave russia and china. how do you see it as a former director of intelligence in the u. s. specifically? well, we've watched the chinese and the russian forces operate together since the establishment

of the shanghai cooperation organization in 2005, the china and russia just announced a new naval exercise with a full squadron of russian naval assets leading bladder bar stock. so these chinese almost a dozen worships and submarines were out for a week from the chinese side are probably going to be operating with the russian carol arts, i would expect chinese or naval forces to circumnavigate japan. go along and up the side of hon shoe and then come up to the north to operate in the sea of japan, at least at 1st. and then we saw just about 3 weeks ago, russian and chinese fighters and bombers operating again once again together the 5th time this year. and at the end of that exercise, russian bombers and fighters landed in chinese or fields. and chinese bombers and fighters landed in russian airfields. so i have been very vocal that chinese and

russian military forces have a strong military alliance. we've seen putin invite rush or chinese military forces to observe last arc, which is a, a russian strategic nuclear exercise have done that twice. and so i am, i've been on, in seen chinese in russian ships operating in the mediterranean. i was on a chinese worship in the baltic after it operated with the russians up in the baltic in 2019. so there's no question on my mind that the p r. c, the p l a and the russian military are operating coordinating closely. and they've been building this for 2 decades. okay, bill burns, at the cia said this month, the usa, we ready for any contingency that the military is told to execute as regards the taiwan. and so they're, they're all, all ready for all these threats that you've been going on about for all these decades. yeah, that's what i would expect. bill burns to say,

i think the indo pacific command commander and will ack leno will gable the talk or an interview with p b. s over the weekend and said something a very much of the shuttle actually that was i was admiral john cleaner. okay, what, what did you think of what he led? well, i know him, i served with him at the used pacific lead headquarters, and i just know that's the, that's the standard line that you're going to get you agree with it. was that, do you agree with it that the u. s. a is ready and, and presumably the, you know, i don't, i don't believe we're ready. i think we have a lot of work to do to be able to deter the people's republic of china from using the military to take taiwan and do these other rejuvenation exercises. but why given that of the detractors of the kind of policy on china that you are advocating? believe it's just a method of recycling us public money into big multinational arms companies. why do you don't think it's a be ironic that the u. s. military uses all these chinese components for their

naval activities, but any increase in u. s. military spending there. and i know that just in the past few months or it failed. another audit in november, pennington, comptroller, mike mccord conceded, only 39 percent of its 3 and a half trillion dollars of assets could be accounted for. do you not see that that? the problem here is u. s. corruption and actually increasing your spending actually just help the governance body of china. well, i've been warned for 2 decades that the, the us should be paying attention to what's happening with the people's republic of china and the p l. a specifically. and we saw, as you think you were alluded to in the south broadcast, the america spent quite a number of years from desert storm desert shield, desert storm until the ignoble retreat from afghanistan. we spent 30 years in the middle east and i had been one of the people who had said, we need to, you know, deal with terrorism, obviously for what happened on 911. but we have to deal with the rise of china and

we approve we as a institution, the department of defense and as a nation didn't pay attention to that. and i think history will judge that to be a wrong decision. does that mean it's over for america? not, you're not on your life. we have many things that we can still do. we're still very powerful. but we need to wake up and recognize that if we do not deter the people's republic of china, much like ronald reagan did against the soviet union, we're going to be in a world of hurt. but isn't it slightly different than the soviet union to china, given the china is the most successful economy, arguably in the world? and why does the united states have to deal with it? why can't the united states cooperate with china? it's law. what the biggest trader in the world already being china, to make a mutually prosperous world as i know you will say, is the chinese communist body talking point. why not do that? why i always think the china wants to, i don't know whether you think the chinese one to invade texas or something i,

what i would say is we, we know what the chinese chinese communist party does when it's empower. they run things through their small claim. never invaded any country since getting about all they tried to invade vietnam. they tried to and ada india. they've actually crossed a line in, invaded india. so we can just, i think they help with vietnamese defeat the united states will want to invade vietnam. did they? i don't think if you'd ask a vietnamese or the dame say that there's a lot of people that were killed by the chinese communist communist or in 1979. anyway, you as a, you honestly believe china wants to invade other countries and expand china to become, i'm open to own the world, actually, territorially. i think the china believes that these territories that i mentioned earlier are there's in that they will use military force to take or you can,

you can align yourself with the chinese communist parting said that they're china's but that doesn't mean that they are. and so they're, they're going to use force if we can't, if they can't get to resolution one way or another are working. but i'm not, i'm not paraphrasing directly. donald trump's inauguration speech, but given the infrastructure in the united states and the a rick lack of manufacturing of the disaster. i think i can't remember the exact words the inauguration speech, which was so eloquent about what has happened as regards a u. s. infrastructure of decline, surely the united states would do a lot better investing all this money into the united states and the people of the united states rather than care about a few islands in the south pacific. which sure, some would argue and none of the united states is business. well, i, i actually agree with what they're saying, but i would invest them in building ships. i, if you look right today, china has 19 major naval shipyards compared to 7 for the united states. and of one

of those that china has jung and out of shanghai is the same size or is equal to the 7 that the united states has show. for instance, in 2021 china commission, 22 worships in united states commission just 3. now people say, well, numbers of worship don't matter. well, china's been beaten us maybe in the us and tonnage for the last decade. and they also are out producing us in the number of long range. and i ship cruise missiles and other high end capabilities like that. so what i'd like to see is united states kind of create what they had in 1942 ocean navy act that helped us be able to win world war 2. we need something that dramatic in the united states that shows and demonstrates to jay and the communist party, that they're not going to be able to do what they've done to the people of hong kong or the people of gin, john or the people of tibet. and their own people. okay, but i mean, obviously the chinese deny absolutely any kind of problems in jin chang of the kind

that they accuse a gander in nato nations. and i suppose i finally, i've got to ask you that there is a rumored possible trip by antony blinking. i don't know whether he can get away from ukraine, the issues and the war in europe. what would you tell anthony, blinking to do next year if he visits china as a summer saying he may do all the recent events may, may be acting against that possibility. i tell them, 1st of all, not to go on. if we want to have negotiations with china and we want to have engagement, then let's have trying to come to the united states, or we can do an organist position and have have us meet a neutral ground. but the day of united states running after the communists in beijing has got to stop. and so we've had 50 years of what i called kissinger school of engagement. where we think that if we engage with china,

that they'll moderator behavior and accept international norms. and you know, and really bring about the greatest amount of prosperity in human history. but that hasn't happened, things have gone worse. and we can't allow that to happen. and so i would advise state department leaders and defense department leaders to hold the line. we don't have to go talk to china the until they are ready and willing to compromise captain given l. thank you, and that's it for the show. will be back next week with a nother brand new absorbed in the till then you can still keep in touch federal and social media. if it's not censored in your country, but you can always had to our channel going on. the tv on rumbled on come to watch new and old episodes, and a merry christmas to all of you watching from the whole team here and going on the grant. see very soon. ah ah,

a do you live from a school? if you look on the initial, the 1 o'clock, not to get a diaz can use the put body when you do do or 2, but you also still with the done those a what i see the steam, the bus is no route you. lation says use a gun, bob. ah

ah, a 2nd day off in the city of the community center. these 3 people today. and what a bond is a terrorist effect. also this our, this used to be a house ukrainian nationalist, used to high precision high mart rocket against this village. green dad's ukraine continues the selling of civilian areas in the russian done it republic, leaving with actual buildings and ruins. we report from the ground.