for the world's largest navy, while the u. s. plays catch up, should the focus turn away from the fighting on the ground in the skies of ukraine, and on to the real battle of the 21st century. well, who better to unpack all of this and captain jim fidel former director intelligence and information operations for the u. s. specific fleet in a 30 a career in u. s. naval intelligence. he's been the top intelligence official for the u. s. 7 fleet in the us as kitty hawk aircraft carrier strike group to point to japan. he's fellow at the geneva center for security policy in switzerland from where he joins me. thank you so much captain for coming on the show. i wanted to talk about the u . s postal service in the pacific islands and how that at may may be important when it comes to what's happening, the south china sea. but of course, everyone is there while everyone in the global south, perhaps not in nato nation, media is turning to what's been happening in the west pacific. what do you make all of the people's liberation army navy, as an aircraft carrier, the leon ng going into the west pacific? obviously, a china people who support china was saying this is

a response to jake sullivan celebrating japan has taken a bolden historic step to strengthen and defend the free and open endo pacific. after japan appeared to overthrow it. so no 1st use of weapons policy. well, 1st of all, action, appreciate the invitation to speak to you on the show. and i tend to look at things what through what i call the strategic trend line. so chinese, a carrier strike groups and surface action groups warships have been trans, announced through the 1st island chain since 2007 is when they really started to, to go out into the philippines. she but what we see here over the last week, a week ago, as of up to 11 worships plus some on non number appeal, a navy nuclear submarines all deployed through the market straight, which is the main street south about an hour into the assume straight. and it's an unprecedented the women because you have 3 of the type o 5 highs,

ran high class cruisers which are over 10000 tons closer 212000 tons and have 112 vertical launch system tubes that can launch land attack cruise missiles and i ship cruise missiles and surface to air missiles and extremely long ranges and these are all deployed out inside the philippine see now operating. and this occurred before the japanese announced a new national defense strategy, national security strategy, or even in the last day or 2 analysis, they're probably going to up the size of their budget. so i think what we're seeing is just a long march of what i call the strategic trend line of the p o, a maritime expansion campaign. and just to be clear, it is the largest navy. china has the largest navy. some people may not realize that it do you think that if you were in bay jing a advising change in being and be a central committee of the communist party,

you would be saying we've got to show some sort of deterrent. we had pelosi going there in a military aircraft to tie one. we have japan heralding a seeming budget. that is the number 3 in the world after a china in the united states. we've got to show some force now. yeah, i would re characterize it does not as a deterrence, but as a power projection capability and the p l a has been building up for 20 plus years to have the capacity to be able to take time on with military force. and we know who's in town g shipping, ordered the p o way to have that capability to take taiwan starting in 2020. i'm pretty convinced that she was confirmed in his mind, that he had the capacity to do that. as even as early as 2018, but the orders were from who and g p l a. be ready to take taiwan by 2020. and so that's really what i call the start of the decade of concern. decade of concern or

just a decade of the beginning of the, the ratification in a way of the congressional activated 79 january 1st to the united states. it also recognizes what the communist party of china recognizes that is taiwan is part of china. well, taiwan is a still something that's debatable, especially for the people that live on the island and don't want to be part of the people's republic of china. so that, that question has been open for debate. and united states has been pretty clear that they want to see a peaceful resolution of this dispute. and most civilized nations hasn't said the same. and so that's really the concern right now is that what we're seeing from the p r c. and especially from the p away by what we saw in august the 1st week of august. with what i characterized as a p l. a time on invasion exercise. it went on foreign 11, a ballistic missiles that bracketed all around taiwan to the north. the south. the east and to the inside the taiwan strait and then the continuous deployment of

naval forces and air forces around taiwan on a daily basis here. but i have to which of course, the chinese say that the united states has been sending warships exactly through that region. but us pull it to what you are just saying that it's a dispute, but it isn't do it. the u. s. congress ratified an act that says there is no dispute. taiwan is part of china. there's no dispute, no debate. well that there's the legality or the diplomatic language which you're referring to. but in terms of the actual estimation is there is a dispute. because the p r says peer c says we're going to take this by force. if we can't get it through other non kinetic means, you just have to go back to the back form. in october of 2013 we're shipping should . we cannot wait forever for a political solution to taiwan. so g is put the p r c. it was already on a timeline, but he's publicly exposed of the chinese communist parties timeline to take time on,

and they have to do it before the 100 anniversary of the p r. c, which occurs on 1 october 2049. and given that you're not going to be able to use military force and couple years before 2049, it's been my estimation. that the p r c has calculated that the latest that they could use military force and still expect the world to come to a grand ceremony in beijing. in 2049 is around the 2030 time frame, which is the end of what i call again the decade of concern. and presumably, captain, you weren't expecting this when you were say on board a u. s. at grof carrier in the region back when you were serving. this is all very new. you're saying? no, actually i've been giving this a decade, a concern, a, a warning since 2012, 2011. back when i was at the u. s. specific release that was generated from my experiences for the previous decade when i was in japan, both on as you mentioned,

the kitty hawk carrier strike group and then with the u. s. southern fleet. and then my also my time at the office of naval intelligence. so i had a continuous look at the p o a, the appeal i navy, and watch them prepare for this. and i been trying to one americans that will not prepare. you know, the china. i've also been encouraged by recent wars that the united states has been involved in, in the sense that, okay, the united states theoretically believes that taiwan is part of china. but china is also viewing what has been happening over the past 20 years. the u. s. defeat in afghanistan, notably, and of course, the nato was in syria, afghanistan and iraq, libya and realized they better get a move on because the united states is expanding its reach 400 military bases around china. and that's a, that's what's concerning them, not to the semi mystical idea of an anniversary numer logically and the importance

of reuniting china. well my, the neurology is not a mess. it's something that they clearly state over and over again. they're going to have a grand ceremony on october 2049 to celebrate the rejuvenation, the great rejuvenation. and they used to use the word restoration as well. and that means are going to have to restore what they believe is their territory. and as you describe, they believe taiwan is there. i believe the st. cockles are there's, they believe the lower you cuz or there's the non se shojo, they believe the shelf trying to see if there's and they believe much of the disputed border between india and china. us is there's as well. so we have a lot of areas, we're the people's republic of china and the chinese communist party have put a stake out there and said these are ours and we want them and they're not going to be we'll have that ceremony on october 2049. and have a, whoever the paramount leader is at that time is not going to be able to stand up in front of the forbidden city and say, we've achieved conrad. jeez,

no great rejuvenation without having actually rejuvenated and restored what they believe is theirs. and now i will say, i believe that they have been on a strategy to use what they call comprehensive national power, which is using soft power to hard power to achieve their strategic end state. so they've got wolf, we're diplomats, they'd use economic warfare. we saw what they've done in the south china sea with law fair in the ability to build 7 islands in the sprout lesion the seas. scarborough show from the u. s. trudy ally, the republic of the philippines. so they've been very successful at using non kinetic force, but as i stated, they're planning as included to be prepared to use military force. and as time goes on, they're going to be more and more people inside of young and i, which is the leadership compound in beijing for the chinese communist party. and they're going to be hearing more and more calls for it's time to pull the lanyard.

it's time to use military force because we have to use it. we have to get through this. we have other things, as you said, we have a change as may be an american political situation. china has their own demographic issues. they've got issues with an aging population. they've got age issues. okay, well, before we, before we get into that. but surely all you just described is a works with the idea that they are the superpower of this century. there by echoes perhaps of the monroe doctrine in latin america or southern rio grande. they have the largest economy by g, d, p as purchase power parity. they um, already have the largest navy, a completely natural that they should seek to protect their country, given the $400.00 us basis of a, they would argue, a declining superpower. and of course, they've always said they don't invade countries. they're not like the united states . they just want to protect their own country and their own region are perfectly

natural, isn't it? and the u. s. can't do anything about it because they're the most powerful country you. you've got the chinese communist party talking points down perfectly. but i would push back and say that they actually have used their military to cause, you know, on settlement and disruption to the peace and stability of the, of the asia pacific region. you know, i was like, like in order to begin, i spent almost 30 years in u. s. navy. and when i 1st started going to see an asian pacific, it was relatively calm place. and we didn't have nations that were worried about conflict with china. we didn't have a nation like japan saying, we're going to blow away 70 years of history and we're going to start preparing ourselves because china is getting ready to use military force to attack, not just i want, but as us as well. and so china has been a force for disruption, and it use military forces to threaten and cajole people. it wasn't that he is ago . i mean, we had the president to palau on and he was quite aware of the allegations of the

united states was involved in the assassination of his predecessor, people in the philippines. quite aware of a u. s. involvement. that destabilizing opposition. groups in the philippines. was it really that peaceful in the endo pacific during that time, with a lot of covert operations to prevent any kind of well, so the critics of u. s. foreign policy would have it democratic ability to have sovereignty on these islands away from united states control. i'm pretty sure that the prisoner plow said that he would welcome us defense forces in his island nation. he said that repeatedly, throughout the last couple of years. so i think, you know, you can cherry pick and try to, you know, say america is a bad country. but the reality is, china's change the strategic dynamic in the asia pacific with their military build up and their economic coercion and their, you know, loftier activities against their neighbors in the region. just look at the south,

tennessee, and the you know, the declaration on the code of conduct written in 1999. china's violated every 8 elements. so that declaration on code of conduct. they threatened people in the south china sea. they've tried to prevent filipino sailors from getting food and water in various locations down there. they've taken action against, you know, island nations like indonesia, new tulip, bizarre. they almost done the war with vietnam and 2014 over an oil rig ship that they put into vietnamese a oil block. so we have a lot of areas where we seen the chinese military rapidly threatening their neighbors. not, not just taiwan, but others like around the st caucus with the japanese. but we're still, we saw it and we saw with china did in hong kong, subjugating 7000000 people under their control. captain jim fidel, i'll stop you there. more from the former director of intelligence and information operations for the u. s. pacific fleet. after this break.

ah ah, no, it was up that with those distributed with ship with you guys help with the with the, with

the white glove with my son is more. i mean that goes with a with ah,

welcome back to going undergrad. i'm still here with captain jim vanelle, former us pacific fleet, naval intelligence chief and current government fellow at the geneva center for security policy. yeah, on hong kong. you said the subjugating or the general subjugating the people of hong kong. do you don't believe the british were subjugating hong kong when it was run by virtual dictatorship and a governor? i asked this because in relation to all those different issues that certainly have played a part as regards sir southeast asian, difficulties with china that have sort of sorted themselves out at ashy and meetings over the years. that isn't the key factor here, that china is what? 800000000 people out of poverty. and that record is what is so persuasive, all around se, asia, as all these different countries in that region are so terribly impoverished weston, no nato nation allies in the south pacific, let alone nerve, even, even japan now bap, setting for recession. well,

the fact that the chinese opened up their economy and allowed in market forces that allowed the people of china to recover from the devastation of mows greatly forward and cultural revolution. i don't think that's hardly a claim to fame. and if the chinese congress party was doing so well, then you have to ask yourself, why did so many people around china go on protests about the last 3 years of being locked down and murdered in their apartments and having no doors? well, the check obviously is government denies that and say that they've been tens of thousands of demonstrations every year over the past 2020 years or more. how serious is it the cavity? how serious is it? a threat to us had your monic power in the south pacific that these islands are so poor that 40 percent are on the verge of her hunger, in, according to a recent un report. how serious is that? yeah, i think there's, like i said at the beginning of the program,

i think there's areas where america and australia, new zealand and other western nations have neglected their attention. we united states fire along with our allies in the south pacific and oceana, throughout world war 2 and a lot of american and allied blood was shed to defend those islands from imperial japanese navy, 80 years ago. and i happened to be fortunate to travel through a cure, abbas in the solomons and bougainville a couple of years ago, right before the chinese communist party virus and everybody. and i was able to see the residue or the reservoir of goodwill that these people have still towards america. so my, the things that i've been telling american audiences that i talked to is, this is an area that we need to pay a more attention to. not just because we have historic ties with these people. but also because the chinese are seeking to come in there and to establish their

control and their lawrence, which which side were the taiwanese who hated mal back then at 11 does only ask because there's been a report to their taiwanese fighters in ukraine. what is the impact of the ukraine war on? no, us had you monic power in the south pacific because a think tank her pro blinking. people seem to want to say, look, china isn't in with russia. we can use somehow ukraine to cleave russia and china. how do you see it as a former director of intelligence in the u. s. specifically? well, we've watched the chinese and the russian forces operate together since the establishment of the shanghai cooperation organization in 2005, the china and russia just announced a new naval exercise with a full squadron of russian naval assets leading vladivostok. so these chinese almost a dozen worships and submarines were out for a week from the chinese side are probably going to be operating with their russian

counterparts. i would expect chinese unable forces to circumnavigate japan, go along and up the side of honju and then come up to the north to operate in the sea of japan, at least at 1st. and then we saw just about 3 weeks ago, russian and chinese fighters and bombers operating again once again together the 5th time this year. and at the end of that exercise, russian bombers and fighters landed in chinese or fields. and chinese bombers and fighters landed in russian airfields. so i have been very vocal that chinese and russian military forces have a strong military alliance. we've seen futon invite rush or chinese military forces to observe last arc, which is a, a russian strategic nuclear exercise have done that twice. and so i, and i've been on, in seen chinese and russian ships operating in the mediterranean. i was on

a chinese worship in the baltic after that operating with the russians up in the baltic in 2019. so there's no question in my mind that the p r. c. p a, a, and the russian military are operating coordinating closely. and they've been building this for 2 decades. okay, but bill burns at the see, i said this one, the usa. we ready for any contingency that the military is told to execute as regards a taiwan. and so they're, they're all, all ready for all these threats that you've been going on about for all these decades. yeah, that's what i would expect. bill burns to say, i think the indo pacific command commander, annual ack leno gave a talk or an interview with p b. s over the weekend and said something a very much allison, actually, that was, that was admiral john cleaner. okay, what, what did you think of what he led? well, i know him, i served with him at the used pacific lead headquarters, and i just know that's the,

that's the standard line that you're going to get you agree with it. was that, do you agree with it that the u. s. a is ready and, and presumably the, you know, i don't, i don't believe we're ready. i think we have a lot of work to do to be able to deter the people's republic of china from using the military to take taiwan and do these other rejuvenation exercises. but why given that of the detractors of the kind of policy on china that you are advocating? believe it's just a method of recycling us public money into big multinational arms companies. why do you don't think it's a be ironic that the u. s. military uses all these chinese components for their naval activities, that any increase in u. s. military spending there. and i know that just in the past few months, it failed. another audit in november, pentagon comptroller, mike mccord conceded only 39 percent of its 3 and a half trillion dollars of assets could be accounted for. do not see that there. the problem here is u. s. corruption and actually increasing your spending actually

just help the governance body of china. well, i've been warned for 2 decades that the, the u. s. should be paying attention. what's happening with the people's republic of china and the p l. a specifically. and we saw as you, i think you were alluded to, and mr. broadcast america spent quite a number of years from desert storm desert shield, desert storm until the ignoble retreat from afghanistan. we spent 30 years in the middle east and i had been one of the people who had said, we need to, you know, deal with terrorism obviously for what happened on 911. but we have to deal with the rise of china. and we, we, as an institution, the department of defense and as a nation, didn't pay attention to that. and i think history will judge that to be a wrong decision. does that mean it's over for america? not, you're not on your life. we have many things that we can still do. we're still very powerful, but we need to wake up and recognize that if we do not deter the people's republic

of china, much like ronald reagan did against the soviet union, we're going to be in a world of hurt. but isn't it slightly different than the soviet union to china, given the china is the most successful economy, arguably in the world? and why does the united states have to deal with it? why can't the united states cooperate with china? it's law. what the biggest trader in the world already being china, to make a mutually prosperous world as i know you will say, is the chinese communist body talking point. why not do that? why? i always think the china ones too. i don't know whether you think the chinese one to invade texas or something i, what i would say is we, we know what the chinese chinese communist party does when it's in power. they run things through their small claim. never invaded any country since getting about oh, they tried to invade vietnam. they tried to invade the india, they've actually cross the line and invaded india. so we can just,

i think i help with vietnamese defeat the united states when want to invade vietnam, did they? i don't think if you'd ask a vietnamese or the dame say that there's a lot of people that were killed by the chinese communist communists are in 1979. anyway, you actually, you honestly believe china wants to invade other countries and expand china to become, i'm open to own the world, actually, territorially. i think the china believes at these territories that i mentioned earlier, are there's in that they will use military force to take there. you can, you can align yourself with the chinese communist party and say that their child, us, but that doesn't mean they are. and so they're, they're going to use force if we can't, if they can't get to resolution one way or another. i working, but i don't have enough paraphrasing directly. donald trump, sir inauguration speech, but given the infrastructure in the united states and the a refill lack of manufacturing of the disaster. i think i can't remember the exact

words, the integration speech, which was so eloquent about what has happened as regards a u. s. infrastructure of decline, surely the united states would do a lot better investing all this money into the united states and the people of the united states rather than care about a few islands in the south pacific. which sure, some would argue and none of the united states is business. well, i, i actually agree with what they're saying, but i would invest them in building ships. i, if you look right today, china has 19 major naval shipyards compared to 7 for the united states. and of one of those that china has jung and out of shanghai is the same size or is equal to the 7 that the united states has show. for instance, in 2021 china commission, 22 worships in the united states commission, just 3. now people say, well, numbers of worship don't matter. well, china's been beaten us maybe in the u. s. and tonnage for the last decade. and they

also are out producing us in the number of long range and i ship cruise missiles and other high end capabilities like that. so what i'd like to see is united states kind of create what they had in 1942 ocean navy act that helped us be able to win world war 2. we need something that dramatic in the united states that shows and demonstrates to j and the communist party, that they're not going to be able to do what they've done to the people of hong kong or the people of gin. john or the people have to bet and their own people. okay, but i mean, obviously the chinese deny absolutely any kind of problems, engine jang, of the kind that they accuse a gander in nato nations. and i suppose i finally, i've got to ask you that there is a rumored possible trip by antony blinking. i don't know whether he can get away from ukraine, the issues and the war in europe. what would you tell anthony, blinking to do next year?

if he visits china as summer saying he may do all the recent events may, may be acting against that possibility. i tell them, 1st of all, not to go if we want to have negotiations with china and we want to have engagement . and then let's have trying to come to united states or we can do an organist position and have have us meet a neutral ground. but the day of united states running after the communists in beijing is going to stop. and so we've had 50 years of what i call the kissinger school of engagement, where we think that if we engage with china, that they'll moderator behavior and accept international norms. and you know, and really bring about the greatest amount of prosperity in human history. but that hasn't happened, things have gone worse, and we can't allow that to happen. and so i would advise the state department leaders and defense department leaders to hold the line. we don't have to go talk

to china until they are ready and willing to compromise captain, given l. thank you, and that's it for the show. will be back next week with a nother brand new episode until then you can still keep in touch for all of social media. if it's not censored in your country, but you can always add to our channel going on tv on, rumbled com to watch new and old episodes and a merry christmas to all of you watching from the whole team here and going undergrad. see very soon. ah ah, so what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have. it's crazy confrontation, let it be in arms. race is on a very dramatic development, only personally and getting to resist. i don't see how that strategy will be successful, very difficult time time to sit down and talk with

ah ah, classes in paris? pro good is processes for the 2nd day after the shoot, the other communities and the 3 people did what local could brand it a terrorist attack? also this our the ukranian nationalist used to high precision high mart rocket against this village. 3, that is the grade continues or shelly of civilian areas, the russian dun and gun republic leaving residential buildings in ruins. we'll report from the ground.