ah turn welcome to well support. a ticket ago when historians were revisiting the origins of the 1st world war, the term sleepwalking became very trendy in describing how divergent factors and self serving actors tangled together to produce one of the biggest catastrophes in human history. as the world enters yet another period of tribe, are we still some be leading, or are we being deliberately lot into an obese? well, to discuss that i'm now joined by benjamin abil, all federal how the was brought war to ukraine. mr. abdullah was great to see you. thank you very much for your time. thank you. thank you for having me. now. the

title of your book, how the was brought war to ukraine is quite self explanatory and unambiguous. but the contrary in me wants to challenge it immediately, because after all, it was russia that launched this military operation on the ukrainian soil. and this is something that both decision makers and opinion shapers in the west are trying to frame as, as an act of aggression. that totally unprovoked act of aggression that goes against international law. and i have to say that there is some validity to this argument. why do you think it was the was that was the main driving force behind this conflict? one of the points i make in the book is to try to distinguish between what are referred to as proximal causes. the causes that immediately proceed to war. and the deeper causes it can extend back in history for there is no natural starting point for 1. 1 tries to establish a sequence of events. so that while i make clear that the immediate cause of the

war was mister, prudent decided to launch the war. he and his military staff, or whoever else in the kremlin, was intimately involved with decision and less sense. they bear responsibility for initiating the war. and if the war could have been stopped and preventative is at points, then he bears responsibility. and of course, that the russians bear responsibility for how the war is being carried out. what i'm focusing on the book more is not so much the proximal causes but are for the distal causes, the causes that extend further back in time. that are now kind of hidden from sight that may have been on the newspaper papers, you know, then the newspaper on the pages of the newspapers years ago. and have been forgotten. or they may never been on the pages of the papers at all. so it's, i'm focusing mostly on the distal causes and the causes leading up to the current moment. and you know, in your book i remind me reminded me a bit that is just 1012 best seller by christopher clark on the origins of the 1st

world. war, this leap walkers and one of the reasons that book was so popular is because he tried to break the old paradigm of assigning a culprit than focusing on the who and the why. and instead, he was more interested in the structural dynamics of swelling, animosity when you observe on the way the, the rounds develop on both sides of that line to do you think decision makers are cognizant. oh, how dangerous could it could be? and perhaps of the historic lessons of the previous conflicts. yeah, that's a great way of framing it with sleep walking. i, i've would make just a couple of points 1st. i think i can't speak for the inner mind of the leaders, but just going from what statements i see being made publicly on both sides. i'm sure there's some cognizance of the threat of nuclear war and the danger of this getting out of control. i don't think there's enough, and that's my fear, ah,

or one of the fears connect with this conflict. i'll also just rift for a moment on your comment about world war one. i think very often in the west and, you know, different people have different opinions, but i think the mainstream view that's coming out of washington and in the media i is trying to impose the model of world war to a sort of hitler like expansionist. and unfortunately, there even some who refer to mister putin as the new hitler or whatever. and this is, i would call schoo horning a past event into a, a current event into a past model. some people refer to the pro chris pro crusty in bed. i, i think that the model that people is this actually more appropriate and the greater concern is the model of world war one, where an uncontrolled arms race between, as it's usually described. and there's complications this, but none control arms race between britain and germany, through a series of events in

a series of uncontrollable circumstances. contingencies led to the outbreak of a war that was a catastrophe. and i think there's a great danger that we may run into that kind of problem now. and it's that world war one model that needs to be attended too closely in the west. and also in russia, of course, what, how the united states to accumulate economic potential. and there are lots of people, not lots, but some analysts here in moscow who believe that the americans are interested in having an and not their global conflict as a way of overcome. i mean, the multiplicity of kind of crises that we are facing right now. the crisis capitalism, the crisis of global governance, ecological crisis. what have you done? and i would claim that there are some historical precedents of that. i mean, i only klein's book the show doctrine clearly demonstrates how the capitalist aims could be served by the use by the sanction use of state violence. ultimately,

is this a conflict about values as the buyer and administration claims, or is it a conflict about resources and, you know, getting preferential and keeping the preferential conditions that the united states has accumulated as a, as a german. yeah, i, i don't see this conflict, so as being one over values. that's not to say that there might not be differences in values between ah, you know, elements of us population or elements of the u. s. leadership and elements of the russian population in russian leadership that there may well be some differences, but i don't see this conflict as having to do with that. i see this primarily as really, frankly, a proxy war on russia's border that is being pursued by the u. s. in it. oh, powers. i, i think that there it's, it's not to say that it's all poorly intentioned. i think there are probably a range of motivations. some people probably are not seeing clearly,

some people are probably very well intentioned butter, imposing outdated models and incorrect models in the interpretation of events. ah, but i think so. so i think the g, a strategic thing is very central. there are certainly people in elements in the u . s. deletes that. do want to weaken russia. you know, this whole question of a unipolar world. there is concern about that is the wolfowitz, dr and etc, etc. and i don't see that that's actually a, i don't like that i don't like what's going on with respect to that. as far as the financial, the monetary issues, you know, there certainly are questions built into the background about the, the role of us dollar is the international reserve currency. there's questions of course, about, you know, how international markets work. on the extent to which i've really thought about the financial elements of this is, i do believe is actually much truth to the concern about the military industrial

complex. and i'm sure your viewers are aware that this is a term that originally coined and popularized by president eisenhower, who's a 5 star world war, 2 general and hero. and in his farewell address to the american public, his final televised address. he warned the american public of the combination of military garak, deer, or credit power and financial interest of the army industry. and in fact, he even seemed like he was going to go so far as to bring in the question of financial conflicts of interest within congress. but was told mister president, you can't go so far. so i think that there are conflicts, financial conflicts of interest and power, conflicts of interest that have played some role in motivating the western stances towards what's happening in your book. you make the point that for 200 years of the u. s. as defense policy, it was based, if not on the respect of done at least paying some attention to the opponents or red lines or secure to sensibilities. and that when it came to russia,

the united states and nato disregarded this principle. question number one, do you think they made that decision deliberately? was it a conscious choice? and why would they do that? given that, again, russia is, is not some 3rd world country has nuclear weapons, it has a strong army, it has multiple resources. what do you think would be the ultimate goal of what do what they would be trying to achieve achieve if they had their dreams fulfilled? yeah. so let me just back up one step before i try to respond to that. hopefully, i won't lose lose the thread of your, your actual question. as i do this, i just want to make a little clear the notion of the geography and the red lines in the question of i referred to in the book. the monroe doctrine is a doctrine course. it wasn't referred to as a doctrine initially, but it's based on a statement by then puzzle. president monroe in 1823 that really at that time had

to do with colonialism, but ultimately has been interpreted in different ways. having to do with the idea that a foreign power, that places a potential opponent to places military forces anywhere near u. s. borders anywhere in the western hemisphere even knows it is crossing a red line. one can only imagine what would happen if, for instance, russia had formed an alliance with canada or mexico foreman cuba. is it that sense or even you are right, which is right. yeah. cuba, right, of course. and even that's further away than right on the border. and we could see during the cuban missile crisis, how aggressively the u. s responded, or i don't wanna say aggressively, could be defensively. but how, what sort of intense fears of attack that aroused on the part of the united states recognize it as its legitimate security interest. and i think everybody else, including this obvious, actually understood it. that's why they were a settlement. yeah. yeah. yeah. i think that's very true. so you know that there's

a chapter in my book or call putting the shoe on the other foot by which i mean to say, how would the u. s. respond if russia or china, it's on something sort of equivalent, forming an alliance with um, with canada and mexico, we saw what happened. even with respect to coupe cuba off the coast. how about if was right on the border as ukraine or ga or other places are right on rushes border? so i think it's very important to try to the treat your opponent as your moral equal. that's what he's trying to say, but the united states clearly doesn't see as, as, as equals. yeah, i think there's some truth to that among many people in washington. i think another way to look at also is there's the writer and blogger, robert wright, who use the term cognitive empathy. and by that, what he means is sort of your ability to mentally or psychologically transpose yourself and the other, the shoes, the other person. and i would say, you know, i think there are people who you could say they have a very they have a view of russia as intrinsically evil and they hate and they hate. there certainly

are people like that. but i think there are probably others who i would simply say they lack cognitive empathy, by which i mean in inability to transpose themselves into the position of the other side and see how they would feel well, even to reverse the picture and see how they would feel, hear this, i did the same, especially if the american own security doctrine doesn't allow for that. i mean, if you actually look at the american strategic documents, there is no space for empathy of any kind. that there is a simple statement of had gemini, that needs to be protected, but which mr. abeline, let's continue this fascinating conversation. after a short break that we have to take right now. ah, who's

ah ah ah welcome back to will's appointment benjamin avalo, also of how the west brought work to ukraine. mister abeline, when we began talking in the before the break about how the lessons of

the world will 1 may be relevant in considering the swelling crisis. but i think there are also many firsts that we haven't seen and one of them would be as far as i would claim, is the car for the explosion add the north stream pipeline, the act of industrial terrorism. something like this never happened before. even during the cold war and also the, the, the nuclear threat, the, i'm sure you follow the, i know that you have a keen interest in nuclear 1st used to lobby congress on nuclear issues. and we all know that there is a huge nuclear station, right? in the middle of this war zone, that is at least according to the russian narrative is being constantly shelled by ukraine. so let's consider this. first of all, i want to ask for your reactions on the, on the explosions on the north stream pipeline. because regardless of who i am

is to blame, i think it really i shifts the frame because it introduces a new norm that though a side can one side can attack the industrial infrastructure. and 2nd of all, it also shows that i, in the area need to naval control know, infrastructure is safe and could be, are in fact vulnerable to industrial terrorism. well, i have many things to say about this. i'll try to keep very brief. ah, and you'll keep me on track if i go sad thing. yeah, just you throw a, throw a rock at me on a 1st obviously this is an extremely dangerous a movement. i'm not quite sure i'll call escalation, but let's talk a movement of conflict into another sphere where this was carried out by russia, by the united states, by other nato powers. i don't think anyone knows for sure yet, although i have an opinion of what i think is most likely. so as a starting point,

i want to say that i think this is very dangerous and it could lead to a type of sort of escalation of attacks on, on infrastructure outside of the current battlefield. and this, there's no end to this where this could go on. number 2, i want to make a comment about the reasons why i think more attention needs to be tailored to the possibility in the west of the united states is actually behind us. and then finally, i want to comment on something about the western media, which i've been extremely disappointed in. ok let's, let's make it one by one i. why do you think the united states may have some associations with that? apart from a secretary of state anthony blinking at presenting that as a great opportunity. yeah. well, i think the things are most persuasive to me are statements made by both president biden and by the under secretary of state for political affairs, victoria newland. both of them in period before the war started. ah,

but when russia was already massing on the border, ah, both of the state is explicitly that they, that the u. s. i have the actual quotations. all she read them because i don't want to realign what's the paper i went back to the video, which anyone can find on line, just search. mr. biden. ha, north stream to, ah, we will end this pipeline, mr. by the state explicitly. this was made on february 7th at a press conference with the german cesar sholtes on the, on the podium with him. if russia invades that means tanks or troops crossing the border of ukraine again, then there, then there will no longer be a north stream too. we will bring it to an end, and then a member of the press said, ah, how will you do that exactly. since the project and control of

a project is within german control? and mister biden responded in a very knowing tone, i promise you will be able to do it in a separate presentation. victoria newland, the under secretary of state, stated, if russia invades ukraine one way or another nord stream to will not move forward. ok. i the, i think that those statements alone, they do not prove that the u. s. did it, ah, and i, but in an ultimate sense, i am withholding any judgment with certainty. but in medicine there's something called prior probability. you look at the full constellation of data that's available before you can undertake a definitive diagnostic test. and you say, how likely is it that one party one disease or another disease or one party or another? and i would say that these statements were explicit statements about what would happen if russia invaded, and then russia invaded. and then this,

it happened. i would say this place is a high, a high prior probability that the united states was behind. this does not prove it, and i remain open to new evidence, but i think there should be much more concern than there is if this is what happened. but i think i need to make an important clarification for our viewers that mr. barton made. that statement about nor stream to pipeline the new pipeline that russia constructed wires, the explosions to place. i've been the, we're stream one pipeline, which still is pretty much still the same because that pipeline was intended and was, was intended to bring natural gas to germany as well as to many other countries. now the americans like to talk about the solidity of the alliances, particularly that alliances with europe. and it's pretty clear to anyone who's, who knows anything about how industry operate that german economy to a large extent and many other european economies were built on the access to

affordable russian energy sources. that's the very foundation or one of the foundations of the european prosperity. if we take on that hypothesis that the united states was behind it one way or another, or that it even sanctioned it that it approves of it which you know, anthony blink and sat it explicitly that it's a great opportunity. what do you think would be? what do you think that would say about the american attitude towards if it's european allies, do you think they will be able to function to maintain the industrial capacity without having energy? yeah, well 1st let me just comment briefly on your point about north stream one versus north from 2 and i think that's an excellent point. one that i have been focusing on, i do want to make what i think may be one small correction. unless there is some new news today, my understanding was at least as of yesterday, there were a total of 3 explosions ah, affecting both pipelines, however, each pipeline has to is a double pipeline. so my understanding is that both of the,

both of the pipelines of the duplex pipeline in north stream one were damaged and one of the 2 in north stream 2 were damaged. my suspicion is that the other one that whoever was planning this actually intended to hit all 4, but things get complicated. it 250 feet below the ocean surface. and so i think that is a valid point of the raising and, and perhaps it should make one a little bit less certain or a little bit less confident that it was the u. s. and maybe it takes a little bit of pressure weight off the statements of biden, and newland, ah, what does it say about the relationships about it? if the u. s. it did in fact carry this out and i want to get to the press also. maybe you can focus my question after that. but what is to say about the relationship? if this happens, certainly the united states has long been opposed to the north stream to pipeline. certainly some people have pointed out that this if,

if the north stream to pipeline ortho north stream, one also stopped operating that this would create tremendous markets, new markets for liquefied natural gas coming from the united states. certainly there, there could be influences along those lines. i am not quite so mercenary and cynical in my interpretation there. i think again that some of this may have come from what were, among some people, at least, you know, well intentioned, that they correctly or wrong correctly or incorrectly had a deep fear of russia and did want not want a closer alliance between russia and germany. and they saw the supply of natural gas as a, an important element in and one of the motivations that one could pause it would be, you could almost call it a desperate attempts to keep up russia and germany from developing a closer connection. that perhaps germany would be peeled off, so to speak, from the western atlantic alliance and move somewhat closer to russia. if in the

winter, the german population began to become a friendly, i, uncomfortable with cold weather, et cetera. so i so i, yeah, i think i'll leave it at that for the moment. now, before we go to the press, if you have time for, i want to use your expertise as a, as a nuclear expert because this jason surrounding this approach nuclear plants as well as other nuclear capacities that ukraine has. it is pretty troubling, and there is sometimes, at least in russia, i believe that the ukraine leadership is using nuclear, rather than the thread of nuclear accidents as a bargaining chip. not only with russia, but even more so with the west. do you think these explosions are gas pipelines that may change the stance of the ukranian authorities or maybe the understanding of what's permitted and what is not? and when you ask was from it or what's not, are you have a specific type of attack in mind? well,

it's pretty clear that an attack on their gas pipeline is pretty dangerous and not only in terms of ecological impact, but also you know, thank god nobody has suffered. but if there is a continued shelling on the nuclear station on the damage could be a far more significant. and yet both of these possibilities to represent a case of an industrial terrorism. you know, well of course ukraine is claiming that russia is shelling the yeah. while the russian forces are being stationed there, right, right. i again, i would say i withhold 100 percent judgment, but i find it rather implausible. the idea that russia would take over the plant and then shell its own forces and attempt to destroy the power plant except this just for the nuclear reactor there, i don't really see what motives are i also, i think that it's true that within the ukrainian forces there is probably quite a range of players involved. although group such as the as of battalion or the far

right, the quote unquote neo fascist or whatever names you want to use. certainly far right. highly nationalistic elements, although they've been more fully incorporated into the ukranian forces and they used to be used to operate, to some extent, semi autonomously. i think there's probably still a much wider range of and much less top down control than there might be. and i suspect that there is within the russian forces. so i think it's possible that there are either elements within the ukrainian forces. it could also be something really from central ukrainian government. but so i don't know the details there. i also know 100 percent. it's been years since i focused on some of these issues, whether an attack there could actually initiate a meltdown of the reactor or whether it's simply dispersing radioactive material. either way it would be a disaster. yeah. can i ask you something very quickly and we are running out of time very, very fast. but i don't know if you, if you heard this news, but just

a few hours ago, the current president led him as events. he called the name to, to strike russia preventively to neutralize the so called nuclear threat coming from russian by nuclear threat. i suppose humans russians nuclear capability. and that's a, that's a statement that was interpreted in moscow and as an invitation to strike russia, nuclear capacity of russia, nuclear facilities. what do you think the chances of the west responding positively to something like that? i certainly hope not. i would like to believe that same voices will pertain in the west. look, this is soleski is the middle of a war. ah, he's dealing with what i call imagine is extraordinary psychological stress and extraordinary precious from within his own government. and the fact that he is in that position, and that he perceives himself as the aggrieved party, ah, may lead him to make statements that are not at all prudent. for anyone they are

not true to for ukraine's, that are not pruned for the united states, and they are approved for russia. so is certainly my hope that the us will not take any imprudent actions based on begging, pleading protestations or admonitions coming out of ukraine. ultimately, united states exerts control of ukraine. we sometimes lose trace of that fact. ukraine makes a statement. we must have high mars, we must have long range high mars. we must do x or y. the united states must acknowledge the simple fact that ukraine ultimately do whatever the united states wants to do. that's the simple fact for better for worse, that's the way it is. we are not controlled by mr. lensky. mrs. laskey ultimately is controlled by us. so there is no way in the world that the u. s. should be acting on every statement the mrs. lensky makes, and they certainly should not be acting on statements they could lead to rapid escalation and nuclear war. well, let's leave it at that. thank you very much for your time and congratulations on

the book. thank you. and thank you for watching cold to see her again on will the part. ah ah, today i'm authorizing the additional strong sanction. foreign company is acquitting russia numbers on a license, atm cause of blantan banks disconnected from the international payment system. the social will hoppey journal, donna and euro exchange rates follow up on. i trouble up article more so, so carbon would know what the committee met, the bulk of the pill invest that is the current. can you say,

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ah ah, russia's military destroys for us supplied rocket launchers used by ukraine's troops or shell targets not done yet. republican sanctions rise in western sahara as the conflict between the rocking forces and the hardy people's liberation army escalates. also the program tenant militants are called by jerry and police on the border with come a route that says both countries continue to struggle with the fall out on that colonial.