ah, a proud name becomes the advocate an engagement. it was the trail. when so many find themselves well, the party, we used to look for common ground the news. hello, i'm manila chan you were tuned into modus operandi. on today's show,

the world is shifting towards green energy. popular sentiment seems to be that fossil fuels are bad. so why then is opec more powerful than ever before? going green is cool, but oil is still re orthodoxy. that's why saudi arabia, the de facto leader of opec, is more powerful now than just a year ago. find out why next. all right, let's get into the and low. the. it began around 60 years ago, a group of energy rich, but otherwise relatively poor countries were just fed up with getting ripped off by wealthier western nations for their main export oil. so they decided to form a coalition that group now known as opec. the organization of petroleum exporting countries, the original founding 5 members consisted of saudi arabia, iran, iraq,

kuwait, and the only non arab state of venezuela. now over the last 6 decades, group membership has now grown to 13. the original 5 along now with the e, libya, nigeria, algeria and gola. gov bohn, congo, and equitorial guinea. once more in 2016, the group has added plus to their alliance opec plus includes 11 cooperating states who are not official numbers, but largely and in effect act as such. now, the biggest of the plus group, russia, russia, is the world, 3rd largest producer of petroleum, among other liquids behind only saudi arabia and the united states. now this, according to the b p. statistical review of world energy 2021 report. russia produced some $10800000.00 barrels per day that year,

and is classified as an upper middle income economy by the world bank. now according to the opec annual statistical bulletin for 2022, the so called cartel controls, more than 80 percent of the world proven oil reserves. a staggering 67 percent of that sits in the middle east. and venezuela, to the surprise of many, has about 3 percent more crude than the saudis. so while the ultimate goal of the world claims to be going net 0 at present oil, literally grease as the wheels for the entire world. then opec roiled the west after us president joe biden approached the saudis about holding off on there to 1000000 barrel a day cut in production. he said, hold off by one month, presumably until after the u. s. mid term elections, but then the saudis, they just said now and also worth noting their this was done in conjunction with

russia who the g 7 is aiming to punish with price caps on russian crude. now russia was considering a 1000000 barrel a day cut, but saudi crown prince m b s, decided now let's just double that. so is that a signal? the us saudi relationship is souring for more on opec and b, growing power of saudi arabia. we invited someone who has served as an advisor to for not one not to not 3 for us. presidents on mideast policy al bruce ryan dell is a senior fellow at the brookings institute center for middle east policy and director at the institutes intelligence project. bruce, thank you for joining us now. many have described opec as a cartel. is this a fair description of a group of nations who work together effectively?

you know, as an oil cooperation council, especially since the term cartel is often associated with gangs and thumbs, illegal activity and things like that. i will leave it to specialists and lawyers to determine whether opec is technically a cartel. it is perceived to be a carter, a, particularly in those countries which are the recipients of its oil. and the other thing i would say about this perception, kopeck is a collection of autocracies. in fact, a good deal of number of them, absolute monarchy is like saudi arabia and united arab emirates, most of its customers are democracies, united states, europe, india, japan, australia. so there is a perception that this is a collision between a bunch of autocrats and the democratic forces of the world. and that's not

a perception that is in opec's advantage by any means. so whoa, or which country is the, the factor leader of opec. saudi arabia, the leader of opec, and it has been since the creation of the organization i saw you review provides at least a quarter if not a 3rd of all the oil that opec produces. and it's the only country that has the capacity to increase production significantly or decrease production significantly, which gives it the key swivel road swivel route in opec. now, goldman sachs commodity is chief jeff curry seems to believe the groups. power is at an all time high of their, you know, roughly 60 years. can you give us an example of the sheer power of this group?

i mean, does it go beyond just shaping markets? can it actually shape global politics? i think as strong as opec is today, it's actually been stronger in the past. i was particularly stronger in the 19 seventy's, 9973. of course. saudi arabia was the oil embargo that lead to shock to quadruple oil prices. the iranian revolution led to a significant curtailment in oil that produced recessions. opec is strong and powerful today, but it's actually been even more powerful when more of the world was dependent upon it or spoil reserve. uses. united states today produces much of its own oil. it is not as dependent as it was back in the 1900 seventy's, the overthrown and murdered long time leader of libya. mark adolphe, he played an outsized role in shaping modern day opec methodology. how would you

describe his efforts? i mean, was he just sort of like a guy trying to unionize these mostly, or a oil producing states or would it be like something else to dock? he was a true arab nationalist. he believed that the solution to the world was to unify all of the arabs, as they said, from the ocean to the gulf, from morocco to alma. now his porky personality often got in the way of his political objectives and he never did successfully unify libya with any other country. but he certainly had a dream puppy unified arab world, which would dominate opec even more than the our world dominates it today. let's shift gears a little bit and place them focused on saudi arabia. now the us relies heavily,

i would say, even primarily on saudi oil, the u. s. a. saudi arabia, as number one customer. conversely, the saudis are america's number one customer in the way of military arms. they buy up tens and tens of millions of dollars of hardware from the d o d, i would say almost every quarter it seems. how would you characterize the u. s. saudi relationship is it a symbiotic one, or the relationship between saudi arabia in the united states is very on equal, or the united states provide saudi arabia with security, particularly against external post, without american support. saudi arabia would have been toppled by masters egypt in the 1950s by saddam hussein, in the 1990 s. it would have been at the mercy of up to soviets. us support has been crucial for the survival of the kingdom. kingdom provides the united states with some of this oil, but the united states also produces

a lot of its own oil and has increasingly gone to find new ways of developing oil. and if you look at the future, not the next 10 months, but the next 10 years. as climate change increasingly drives american politics and economics, we're going to be less and less reliant on fossil fuels. that's a good thing, but it also means we won't need the saudis that much anymore. the saudis, on the other hand, don't have an alternative to the united states secured. clearly, russia is not going to be able to provide security for anybody. it's losing the war and the ukraine, and the chinese aren't that interested in projecting power around the world and taking on security concerns. neither russia or china is very much interested in taking on the ryans, which is the saudis traditional bo. so the saudis need america much more than america need saudi arabia can, can you, can you elaborate a bit on the,

the brookings white paper that you released on this, this clandestine and saudi israeli relationship. saudi arabian israel have had clandestine intelligence cooperation since the mid 19 sixty's in 1962, there was a qu in yemen. and what was then ne, that brought into power a pro soviet and pro gyptian republican government, both the israelis and the saudis wanted to support the alternative to royalists. and the 2 of them cooperated in getting arms to the royal. it's literally the israeli airports flew down the red sea over saudi territory and dropped arms to many royalist levels. this collusion was the beginning. it has continued ever since then. and it continues to this day

has been very successful for both sides. one of the reasons that the israelis one so and leave the famous 6 day war in 1967 is the quagmire. israelis in saudi is created for the egyptians in yemen was bogging down 70000 egyptian soldiers. the best and brightest of the egyptian army was in the wrong desert. in june 1967. they were in the m and they were not in the signer. alright, so the, the term opec plus the plus that actually includes russia. what is russia's position in this cartel? how important a player are there lessons or not formally a member of opec, but there are a member of the tech plus and as a very large oil producer, they have considerable weight to warn you. crane though, has undermine their weight, because there are so many countries that apply sanctions against russia and are not

importing russian oil anymore. so russia's relative position has declined since we began the war with ukraine. which is why saudi arabia's decision last month or earlier this month to cut production was so much to the russians advantage. because the russians need to get as much money as they can for the amount of oil that they can find consumers on the world market. mostly china and india. and even in china and india, they're selling oil at a bargain price. so, pushing up the price of oil has been a significant help for the russians and keeping their economy going in the face of the very expensive war. they're fighting in the ukraine, former presidential adviser, bruce bridal. thank you so much for being with us today. and coming up next will turn our focus on the saudi arabia and their growing strength beyond just

their region of the world. we'll discuss it when we return that type. emma will be right back. i blue. so what we've got to do is identify the threats that we have. it's crazy confrontation, let it be an arms. race is often very dramatic, development only personally and getting to resist. i don't see how that strategy will be successful. it's very critical time time to sit down and talk with boss with key at the washington state. the process is to deal with money. computer cranes give us a little bit. it was put in

a row, spoke with you guys to phone us in the full could i get you what i need to do with super school that did you, do you put up a list of all but each with ah ah, the saudis had been an economic powerhouse in the middle east for decades, but now in a growing multi polar world, the saudis are flexing their powers, are broad. for more we will bring in ali, i'm mad, he is a saudi academic and journalist, founder of the institute for golf affairs,

ali good to see you. so the u. s. you know, relies i would say a lot on so oil. the saudis also rely very heavily on the u. s. the saudis, or america's number one, d o. d customer, you know this. they buy a billions of dollars worth of arm, huge contracts, and go to the pentagon and affiliated companies. how would you describe the u. s. relationship with saudi arabia right now, while there is a lot of economic ties between sort of a, b and the united states. and the primary market for a via is china in terms of the exporting and importing goods. and which makes the relationship sort of a bit odd. yes, the idea is number one, source of arms and weaponry has been the united states. and the united states sold

more weapons to saudi arabia than any other country. and that is, that explains a lot. so, and because the united states, the relationship has been as, as stated, even by many american president and officials, the united states is committed to the security and the survival of the saudi monarchy over the past few decades. and most of that source is not the oil as, as, as claimed because the oil, as the oil in the united states is very minimal. but in terms of being a customer for american on was so there it is, number one and the saudi government. and the monica has spent a lot of money in washington in there. and i said in general,

basically buying influence in universities, media, reporters, politicians, past and current american officials and both sides of the island in the duma project site and the republican side in congress and in government. so the relationship is definitely a symbiotic relationship because you have a small group of people that is a monarchy or the those people who are now in control of the country among the monarchy, who require security and defense against 1st and foremost, their own people. and the united states have provided that security and protection in spite of any denial. these are the stablish facts that the united states topped the overthrow or the removal of the monarchy from one end of that country,

stopping in 19 sixty's and continued until now. so it's not only, i guess outside threats, but against their own people. and in exchange there, the saudi monarchy has provided the united states government and officials with large contract opened the country space and land for us to establish forward bases and to. and the saudi monitor also funded a lot of american efforts in and in the gulf and in the middle east, in general. be it in cash or, and giving the united states and bases. so they can cross out both spy or tat countries in the region from yemen to add to iran, to syria, for example. so there are provided place for to train serial

numbers isis linked rubbers in saudi arabia, you know, and that's, this information is new obviously, but these are facts. so over the past 6 years, so did i be served the united states, security and economic goals. and the u. s. served the monarchies, survival and power within the country. and in the region, the saudis have considered and seem to have agreed to start taking the chinese you want for oil. now, if this really does happen, do you think this will be really destabilizing to market, specifically here, states, i mean, is this going to, is this going to cause the collapse of the u. s. petro dollar? i do not think saudi arabia relying and popped on the wong will bring an end to the euro dollar to the dollar. but it

will open the gateway to other countries to stop depending or using the dollar as a currency and international trade. trade between china and russia, for example, would stop using the dollar and people dealing with china who are not understand sions or bullied by the united states, and then as well and other countries. cool. but your name, it was start dealing with china. we're in their own currency and that is, i think it's out of the united states, sort of a loose cannon policy of sanctioning countries and starving populations around the world. so people will go with the chinese currency and deal with china rather than the united states to avoid us sanctions and to,

to stop being bullied. so i guess if the saudi government is going do it, it will be limited. it will not, this is not supposed to shake the market, but because in this, these kind of markets are based on speculations and people inflating, changes, there will be some losses, but i think in general it would be a good. it said good a step for international. it cannot mix because using a single currency as a main trading and their vehicle is not good. it limits options of many people. so it's important that an international economy uses different currencies and it should be an open market. isn't that supposed to be

capitalism? ideas to have an open market or free market. so it will be good for the saudis and for the chinese even, i think from the americans. but if they do it, of course the united states will take this as a huge insult and cause for, for revenge or steps. however, i think m b s will not do it until he is confident did this will not cause massive reaction. and i think that that is explained by his recent sentencing of an american citizen to 16 years. this is the harshest sentence and american hostage has received ever in the united states. government basically did not say access to this sentence, and it did not try anything to stop it from happening. although they had that

information from last year 1111 months ago. yet they did not to extend to any effort or even ask the saudi to this 74 year old man in any of the meetings between secretary blink can or sullivan, or by dealing with the saudi or what the saudis configuration of taking in the chinese. you on, does this signify a strengthening of their relationship with china, especially a saudi arabia is also considering application to the bricks block in the so the relationship with the chinese have been growing. and now the number one trading partner for saudi arabia is china. and be a consumer goods oil energy. and there are many projects and saudi arabia that are being built by chinese companies is supposed to

have been american companies. but again, people feel more comfortable, even those who are protected by the united states government are finding dealing with the chinese is easier and maybe even cheaper and better for them at that. so it is very clear as it has been happening for a while, and saudi arabia is expanding its investments in china and along the chinese as well to, to bring a lot of it can, i'm a can project into saudi arabia. but this is not only limited to the konami projects, but also so i got a, we have purchased and chinese military hardware, including service to service missiles. and there are

saudi military officers who am training in china. so the united states now is not the only source for military hardware, it is still the primary source, and it will continue to do to, to be so. but the chinese are also now a provider of saudi of artists. so i, we're gonna have to leave that right there. my friend ali ahmed, always good to see you. thank you for sharing your expertise with us this week. so while the saudis lead the opec group, the collective west is also now considering a buyers cartel of their own in response. check that out. not sure how that's all gonna play out, but we'll have to wait and see that's going to do it for this week's episode. modus operandi the show that dig deep into foreign policy. i'm your host manila chan. thanks for tuning in. we'll see you again next week to figure out the em out. a concern

ah, with joggers archipelago homer, that she goes to san diego garcia, the largest island in the archipelago, is now the location of a very large u. s. military base. you could give a med div i to the u. s. government to make a military base and just deported or the douglas and people from the country. so big caught return back on the island. no, but we all typed in a real fasting for the right. so i, we do not consider that the right to self determination actually applies to the trickle students. i don't,

the question of self determination of the legal advice we have received is actually the chickens. we're not all, not a people. for me, it's done to move on and see what we can do a full to troubleshoot community to return back home. there is no support from the admission high commission average in united national you don't care about chug restaurant people. oh is your media a reflection of reality in the world transformed what will make you feel safer? isolation, whole community? are you going the right way or are you being that somewhere? direct? what is true? what is great? in the world corrupted, you need to descend

a join us in the depths or remain in the shallows with lowest bondsville to you guys with project. whatever with the with the would you let your vehicle can be a good show to somebody with that other? was the money done love for school, and with

that there that would limit ah, so is this our state of emergency is required in brazil capital until until the end of the month. the process is still the pro with could, more than 400 demonstrators have been detained. 50 russian soldiers returned over me saying captivity in a prisoner for the things the same, the negotiation versus defense. if he says it's.