lungs, which way do you think it's leaning? i don't necessarily think, but versus a huge change because, you know, a sense of this war has started. we are in the way in the wait and see. and we are waiting to, to see what the balance on the battlefield now then we, i see this can play a number of ways of perhaps, you know, the one that you know corresponds mostly to wishful thinking on both sides is the straits victory and the other side simply decides to concede it had, you know, we'd froze in the towers, but i'm far more likely. possibility is so for a bird flow spell made to develop between the 2 sides. so you don't all have a clear winner, oak your loser. and you reached the point where, you know, the countries decide that they have enough and they would like to see it for negotiation. probably this is the most likely scenario, but there is also the possibility. and this is probably the most worrisome that one

of the 2 sides because both sides of the moment are free. barry for what we understand events and said a lot of this 2 sides. yeah. those genes, the oper had, and then the other, the thoughts western are either by using more lethal weapons or enlarging the conflict for the intervention or so. well, let's talk about that because we are recording this conversation on wednesday. they began with the news from the russian minister of defense about one of the war ships in that line, 6, successfully testing a high per sonic miss with 1000 kilometer range. and we've also heard that the last couple of days from news from germany, about nader countries, expanding the list of armaments and weapons that they want to send to ukraine. they're becoming more sophisticated. what do you make of all that showmanship?

do you think there is a chance of that, those weapons being used on by that i mean, specifically the russian hypersonic missiles on the as far as i on the stands. oh weapons of dish. i mean if, if you're talking. thank you. it says the start of the war. it's just, you know, that ukraine as entreaty used western babes thanks tried. and as for us, hypersonic missiles are concerned. i, you know, if the below this conventional, this arnold nasa sounded different from all the types of nissan strides. and so, i mean, it will, it will not necessarily be a huge escalation was, i mean, in terms of escalation is weapons that are more lethal tried in terms so for bailiff particularly that the worrisome um all factor here is the possibility of fuel on conventional loans and you know, i'm speaking about unconventional weapons. i mean, i hypersonic nissan is,

is it as unconventional as it gets. and i agree with you that there is no point military point or strategic point for action to use it against ukraine, but not to use it against some of the countries that supplying ukraine with weapons and advisors that then attack russian military personnel that makes perfect sense i mean, this is war. after all, do you think moscow was trying to send any signal to the west? and if so, how do you think that thing be read? well, rational has tried to deter invention by nato. since all this startled to conflict, and i should also say that this has as large should be in the successful what it hasn't really lied to do, is to say, hey, you're counts for the sun reference to ukraine or we are going with that q. and this will be a very, i sure will, did a very dangerous escalation on the part of russia. it's the, exactly the same sort of argument that

a germany used and were one right to united states was at the time supplying weapons. the all dogs and the germany launched on unrestricted summary warfare in order to stop the supplies. so this, this, like b would be with be probably us a step too far because so far, you can really are given this is still a war between 2 sides. well, and depending how you define this sides, because when the russians is definitely not the one between russia and ukraine and the russian seed as a war against nita and they made definite to see that as an existential issue. and by the way, the west also doesn't really hide its intentions to solve the quote unquote the russian question and to fight until the very end, whatever it means. so if i'm in the war is really of such proportion, if it's an extension in nature and involves the survival of russia as a state,

do you think that would be such an illogical move for russia to at least came that using those weapons against those who sponsor this conflict? no. when we were saying your existence does it mean, but the rational uses, the war rashid says, is to exist and a single on. so here is no. l. russia will continue to exist. ah, even if it, you know, i made using the war with, with a late to rashaw, essentially using to 3030 to know control senior crane and also the crimea up. but dana ross, i exist with all the course and i mean $3040.00, gosh, i garage, i would still be there. now, what would be a fact however, would be a rush of the does as a great ball world. the 1st track and it is, or this objective that i believe the war is taking place. ah, this would be,

by the way, this is a very important thought jack is that there is indeed all you know and draw g, 3, this i've been, you go for great powers. great powers are not buying in inverse leap off. seek of old age of they are usually good on the battle. so the question is, it has the time come for, for russia. now, are you mentioned the issue of grace powers and you rode the grade book on the grand challenges of great power. i wonder if the definition of what it means to be a great power in this day and age has in any way changed, let's say, from the 20th century. i don't think so. i mean, it's still, it's still based on free criteria, essentially as they tries to fulfill all 3 of the criteria in order to get great power and stay a great power and describe your, our criteria or simply power behavior recognition. so he's actually all the to be a great ball where you have 2 large resources and buried resources or intentional

population in turn. so well, for instance, it's very forced. and in terms of technology, at the very least, all so you have to behave like a great ball, which means you have to have larger and farther away interests. and you know, jury mediate. they both with oak, so great all or is usually involved in several regions and same time or in the entire international system. as is the case of the you are then you will have to take part in the international advantage, michael the system. and finally, it will be a great for you have to be treated as one as a equal member of the club by the other. great, butch, this is probably, you know, what is at stake here because it's pretty much where the russia is treated as an equal party, not the states will not. now on, i think your definition on flag way. powers is pretty much concurrent with how it's described as it, within the, in the russian political circles. and it's primarily and when the russians about

their ability to project various forms of power beyond water, cultural, social, financial, and military and august and russian power is constrained in some of those wells. but when it comes to, for example, security and military in the mean, russia has been increasingly present in some of the middle eastern countries in africa, in number one, provider weapons to africa, and also provide of military services to a number of african countries. much to the chagrin of the united states, i wonder if you see any connection between the russia. sam said, emerging confidence in those affairs and the western decision to stop to start weaponized the brain very fast, which came, well, at least this is something that the russian cited as a, as a reason for that military campaign in the ukraine. as far as, as i see, this is ultimately not so much a conflict over security. all obviously,

i mean there this, the argument is being made ultimately, you know, you voting security is that is the justice, the only legitimate reason to go to war. either your under attack or you know, your ela is under attack, and this is why you're taking security measures. but in fact, every one he's saying burst sunday, joking got, you know, what's ukraine and what's russia are saying? they are both bitching this. right? oh, i would say, however, particularly because you know, great all, we're sorry, bold. this is far more of conflict over power and status involving the united states and russia. it's a question of all russia assert, deep a sphere of influence in the former soviet space markets constant year abroad and ukraine. these is sunshine in order. ready to take this, you know, these things doesn't want to allow us to happen. and all this is, you know, at the bottom of what, what is going on. of course, very supply and demand, right?

so there is an interest on the arc off of farm. they don't you space to supply ukraine will. ready robbins burger sold, so a nationalist ideology and dog identity in your grade that wants to assert itself and requires us or of this weapon. so now in your analysis i you called lighting and put in at risk averse loss minimizer. and as much as i actually agree with this back up sir, is ation at the seemingly most illogical way of on minimizing the risk for us or would be just to sit still try to reach some back door agreements when the americans to avoid public humiliation. but, and to deal with that, it's resentment and it's criticism all fine. and nader encroachment in santa ana rather than military way. why do you think the kremlin took the decision and took which, whatever you think about it could not have been an easy one, not only because of its international repercussions,

but also because of the domestic sensibilities. most of us have relatives in the ukraine bell. this is for the dinner, this is a point, but you know, future historians are going to salivate over. so this is definitely going general to leaching a 1000 books. right. why did draw oh, start to start to warn you. great. but as far as i'm concerned, i believe, and you know, this plays into what we have said before with any visor as probably the last chance rush or had all not losing. you're going to the west or ukraine was army day by day it was becoming stronger and the back we see. but you know, the results back will field in this. i've been all still got to close at 40. you know that what i left with different all got it was i and so the idea your was if roger allowed to continue to allow this process to go on back. no,

you great. without being without becoming denser ball. great. what i've tried the baby completely into the orbit, can brush it all. this will happen. so read the last chance for voice. well, this is a very interesting point that we have to return to after short break featured. ah ah ah ah ah ah

ah ah ah, because she changed with new that was a still national leader, which would you still with a with

that the copy from or did you get us? the boys are new to me if you're bringing with. mm. ah hmm mm welcome back to wells appointment to door assistant professor at the department of international relations at bill county university professor and they. and just before the break, you mentioned that you also made that point in some of your articles. that the reason why russia intervened in ukraine is because it wants to have a sphere of influence there. i wonder if it's really the case because if we are, i mean, no, would you believe, honest about the political analysis of your current?

it's been under western political domination for many years prior to the start of russian military campaign. wasn't it more about not allowing the west to turn it in ukraine from the political wants into a military one, in which case it will not be amount to ukraine. it would be about the west and maintain its military infrastructure moving ama closer to the russian capital. he added to the question here is, why would you necessarily want to multiple closer nowadays? i mean, you have the technology to annihilate the state. oh. and so kilometers away, this is not, you know, the time. so, you know, napoleon, it's fall time. so if you're where you have to sending to you from 3 of the thanks, russia as the beans stood there an attack against itself. it has the means to defend itself. they de, we smelt crazy. ah, so this is not so much a question off we are going, but thank you. as it was general,

we won't do actually expand our influence in ukraine on. so the question your is where your grade was going to go, was it going to go to the european union? was it going to go into the eurasia project, economic project, but you know, is supposed to rival, the, you isn't going to go into nato. is it going to go from the collective of security, treat your organization? so this is the problem you're and golf course of each says, but wasn't really an agreement with this organization or potential idea of that was of all banded about at, at the time was a potential neutralization or great, you know, make, make your grade beloved, or belgium a but this didn't, didn't come about all there is the result was ultimately this, this conflict. now, you know, one of the, you know, international political analysts will actually around london and put in speeches or his articles on the issue. and he's been pretty clear, i think,

in most of his writing, that he didn't want the ukraine to be part of russia. he insisted that ukraine needed to remain an independent state. and from a russian perspective, it wasn't good idea because it actually allowed russia as vested interest in ukraine, somewhere to intense early integrity with create and buffer zone to fit it in the west. and for how that was the best security guarantee for your plan. now that this is a think of the past and some parts of your brain already incorporated into russia. what do you think that division line, that boundary is going to be? and i, that's it, it's, it's got, this is really the problem. and this is going to be, you know, the double in the fun and they go sheesh, right? so the devil is always in the details. all right? so who gets won't? ultimately it's be finds for what is going to happen really $30.00. i would say, spite, you know, the many declaration. so folks, you know,

ukrainian or russian leaders. it will. it's still still all them of the on that they've been for negotiations. nothing is really subtle yet. oh, so it will, it will pretty much be decided by whoever ends up in about the position at the end of this will still it, it's for any and mediation or authentic negotiation to proceed all sides, including converts actors or behind the theme actors. they all need to make the calculation that. 8 continue hostilities and more detrimental to the interest than piece. and i think i can figure out what would be a russian in ukrainian constraints because they're fighting on the battlefield. they're losing people, they're losing resources. but what about the americans and they european alice, they don't seem to be losing as much what could possibly inspire them to be more in

favor of peace or essentially. all right, the know both saw it and you know, here we are talking here about you. cree blah said the will be sure sort of craig, which is the nato. you american allies in asia are off and on the other side, your garage. and so the problem the year is but both sides still believe that victory is boston. as long as they will pertain this b, b, they are willing to spend resources in order to catch to light on oh, still it is supposed to let those go. oh, what is needed in order for priests happen is for these sites you give up on the prospect of victory. so victory is simply too expensive that is out of reach. and therefore, if this goes, since this is sort of thought back to order some, some useful stuff and those simply, we are open. but ford, yes. but so, you know,

and this also shows the magnitude of the states. oh, because it's you start, you know, all the resources that are required so far i'll be off. it's interesting that the you mentioned. 6 that all sides, i still going for victory, but the russians have never actually defined clearly that military objectives. so it's, it's very difficult to say and what, what they would regard as victoria, from most this perspective, it's already achieved the why the number of goals and so to sort of put them in stone with the acquisition of those regions. do you think the state of squall as of now would be satisfactory for all sides, given that it's very unlikely that most google back track on any of the recent moves. oh, probably not. oh, no. so were you gray? you green has all a set on, you know, maximilian goal. so every angel theory theory bloss grimy on needs to be all the

way they, they both it was liberated. and as far as russia has been, sir, we know that, you know, the mini mo, the man, there he is, for is for the done bus value of all this new territories. but, you know, have been added to the dom, us. but the thing is, even if this was considered to date brush on this, we're going to release that this i rises, political objectives, which are to, you know, force crane into essentially it's orbit. and this is not likely to happen here. you only way you know this with, you know, the war with and in a way that would satisfy rational would be either with few grain, simply capitulating and this were, was probably the objective at, you know, the beginning of the force. the lift is, you know, complete occupation of pro russian government and jets of government that gives up

on the dom bostic government. that keeps up on joining nato, a government that lead the march and joins the russian project or failing vis a you grain. but it is still dramatically weakened from the conflict, but it will then both march challenge in the future. so for instance, an ability to got ukraine away from the black sea, through se, occupying goddess and that would be a ukraine, but look, be dramatically weaker economically, politically. and it will be a question or flush on finishing their job at some later point. i have a problem with this kind of analysis and which i hear a lot in western media primarily because i think as these and put in is at risk of hers and loss minimizer. and he's pretty sure, with man understanding that there, as a russian sentiment in the ukraine is extremely strong. there have never been much appetite in moscow for, you know,

western ukrainian alisha and other lands like that. so why would the russia ever want to get that south involved into those lands when it faced even under joseph style and under the soviet tool, there was many separatist and insurgent issues there. so don't you think that must would much rather be satisfied with the west taking the rest of ukraine on their own wing and you know, paying for their reconstruction and taking care of the people? well, of all civil division of the state is also on the table. this is also, this is also possibility. so you might have a sort of like you had the federal republic of germany, but you have the democratic german, you might end up with great ease degree. if i could be more like northwest versus all these all to tell you the truth. but one point i think should be made 30 key or this is not. busy about draw shark recreating the soviet you it's

impossible to call or political or another state as you say. but this would be, you know, prohibitively expensive and i don't trust i was interested in this, but it's really wants is for a government that is looked on, should do it security interest when it's all, you know, state as tweets power. right. so ultimately what it is a, well is some formal for client government in jeff. this is, by the way, i mean it's, it's not, it's not unheard of it's, it's actually what this bureau, that you don't necessarily control the, all of this data as much as you control. it's more a policy. so this i believe is what is, what is all is off now a professor and i have to ask you about tricky because this is something i announced in my introduction and we barely spoke about the anchor. and yet so far has been by far,

i think the only international player that has made any in the roads in terms of bringing the 2 sides together. and it was a meeting between our foreign ministers of russia, ukraine in tricky last year, which even i reached to some agreement, which nonetheless was later appended by the ukranian side. do you think it's still it is still worthwhile for turkey to try to negotiate this p to or it's still too early for that. oh, it's definitely worth it alternately. it elevates 30 is position. all right. it, 1st of all, it makes 30 appear as the jeep maker. right. and in this conflict, and also if you, you know, manage us to deliver diplomatic supplement, well, it is success and success, so you'd suit points weaker. national relations are the problem here,

and as far as like in c n you're, you're, you're absolutely right. you need 3 volts more sides and the one size that you really need to particular to the oldest states. you cannot just have ukraine and russia booking for each other, but at the same time your door at dialogue between, between the great powers and in this group us the, i don't know if 30 really just to live or because at the moment therapy, the american relations are fairly dense, and then that's also something that, that russia relies on because it's been very active in trying to rely on tricky to is the pressure of western sanction than many were inspired enterprises, including the proposal to build and gas hop in turkey. do you think it's sensible for russia to rely on turnkey, given even not only and the long history, very allentown, between our 2 countries history and that it was a fool with there is the trails,

but also recent history on we're c remaining disagreements there. why do you think russia is entrusting itself. 9 to trick, and it's very sensitive point of time. if you rush my, your actually looking for french wherever you can find. but, and you cannot really be picky or choosey, but you need fact if you're looking at the houston yoga relation, this goes for the back. and so there was an increasing garage. hm. all between russia, turkey seen surgical. right. and since the governmental russia actually came out very much in support of the government in on products. and i would say, of course there are differences, but there are also overlap big interests and some are back do concert series. ah, in fact it is, as you know, i have bunch for marines of you quite also billed that we. busy dollar, you know, the possibility of a syrian gate which actually would bring together. ah, not only,

you know, the president of russia jerky, but maybe we might have been taishan off the hospice. so we might have a future, a meeting between the whole team, press one, press 2, a well professor. now we have to leave it there. thank you very much for your time today. thank you and thank you for watching. pull to sir, again on the well to part with me for

ah, ah ah, lisa canter, russian state will never. i've stayed as i'm phoning, no slam scheme. divest a house not send up with within 55 with this date. okay, so mine is 25 i'm speaking with. we will van in the european union, the kremlin media machine, the state aunt rush up to date and school ortiz spoke neck, given our video agency, roughly all band to on you to send

with ah, we'll multiple explosions that being reported in iran with the country's defense ministry confirming is managed to float a drone attack on an ammunition death. american, british, and other european delegation demand that african countries stop cooperating with russia and avoid breaking away from the common agenda which the west seas as the restoration of colonial dependence in a new form. russia's foreign minister condemned western countries. the warranty calls that attempt to recall the 9th to africa and press.